General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Brownie19]

Depends on what the goal is? If the goal is, field a competitive team in 2017 and be damned with the future, then I guess they would. But if they're looking to rebuild the core and have some young, controllable talent on the horizon, then no...you have to keep Junior and wait it out.

 

For me, I keep him. I'd like to see a young core (Cubs) get built, and then augment that with veteran talent. I've been saying it for more than a decade. Built internally, then when you have a nice core established, bring in veteran leadership and talent to fill in some outstanding holes and round out the roster.

 

I'm curious to see if more teams start following the Cubs and draft/collect young positional players instead of pitchers. I get that pitching wins championships, but they are so f'ing volatile. Drafting positional players isn't a sure thing - but the rate of success of 1st and 2nd round positional players must be significantly higher than it is for pitchers. Increase the rate of success in your draft and use them and FA money to sign/trade for pitchers when the time is right.

[burlingtonbandit]

You wouldn't trade Vlad for Cutch?

 

I'd rather just sign Bautista for a little bit more money and keep Vlad.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm curious to see if more teams start following the Cubs and draft/collect young positional players instead of pitchers. I get that pitching wins championships, but they are so f'ing volatile. Drafting positional players isn't a sure thing - but the rate of success of 1st and 2nd round positional players must be significantly higher than it is for pitchers. Increase the rate of success in your draft and use them and FA money to sign/trade for pitchers when the time is right.

 

I think we are starting to see it with trades. More teams are reluctant to trade their top position player prospects but seem not to concerned with the pitching prospects. WSH kept Robbles and out of the big trades the White Sox made 4 of the best 5 prospects were pitchers.

 

The Cubs and Astros paved the way by targeting position players.

[Orgfiller]

It's fine in a vacuum but do you really want to trade a guy with Vlad's upside at this juncture? I think that's more likely to set the franchise back than pay off.

 

Vlad's upside is nice, but he's super far away, and there are already big question marks about his future position. He's likely to never provide the kind of value that McCutchen will provide in the next two years. There's a chance you trade him and that he becomes a spittin image of Vlad Sr. yes, but the odds are strongly against him. There's plenty of big name IFA signings with prodigious power and seemingly excellent bat to ball skills that flamed out. If the Pirates offer you McCutchen for Vlad Jr. + Matt Smoral and some other C or D level prospect I think you take it and run.

[King]

Vlad's upside is nice, but he's super far away, and there are already big question marks about his future position. He's likely to never provide the kind of value that McCutchen will provide in the next two years. There's a chance you trade him and that he becomes a spittin image of Vlad Sr. yes, but the odds are strongly against him. There's plenty of big name IFA signings with prodigious power and seemingly excellent bat to ball skills that flamed out. If the Pirates offer you McCutchen for Vlad Jr. + Matt Smoral and some other C or D level prospect I think you take it and run.

 

Smoral is in the Rangers system now, FYI

[Carp12]

Vlad's upside is nice, but he's super far away, and there are already big question marks about his future position. He's likely to never provide the kind of value that McCutchen will provide in the next two years. There's a chance you trade him and that he becomes a spittin image of Vlad Sr. yes, but the odds are strongly against him. There's plenty of big name IFA signings with prodigious power and seemingly excellent bat to ball skills that flamed out. If the Pirates offer you McCutchen for Vlad Jr. + Matt Smoral and some other C or D level prospect I think you take it and run.

 

 

 

Smoral is with Texas now

[Orgfiller]

Smoral is in the Rangers system now, FYI

 

Smoral is with Texas now

 

Right, my bad. I just wanted to use some generic bust with okay upside in the system that isn't worth anything.

[Daniel Labude]

 

Would be way worse than the Synder trade...like 100 times worse

[Daniel Labude]

Vlad's upside is nice, but he's super far away, and there are already big question marks about his future position. He's likely to never provide the kind of value that McCutchen will provide in the next two years. There's a chance you trade him and that he becomes a spittin image of Vlad Sr. yes, but the odds are strongly against him. There's plenty of big name IFA signings with prodigious power and seemingly excellent bat to ball skills that flamed out. If the Pirates offer you McCutchen for Vlad Jr. + Matt Smoral and some other C or D level prospect I think you take it and run.

 

2 years isn't super far away. McCutchen might not even put up replacement level stats in the next two years especially changing leagues and having to adjust

[L54]

The dumn is flying high today!!

[L54]

Anyone who honestly thinks elite hitters are subject to substantial drops in performance based on things like changing leagues and adjusting are so out of touch. These guys have the innate ability to make adjustments to 95 mph fastballs, so thinking that moving from the NL Central to the AL East would be cause for concern is so f***ing stupid I want to pound my head against the wall.

[burlingtonbandit]

Anyone who honestly thinks elite hitters are subject to substantial drops in performance based on things like changing leagues and adjusting are so out of touch. These guys have the innate ability to make adjustments to 95 mph fastballs, so thinking that moving from the NL Central to the AL East would be cause for concern is so f***ing stupid I want to pound my head against the wall.

 

Maybe back 40 years ago but now with video you can literally see what any pitcher throws before you face them.

[Daniel Labude]

Anyone who honestly thinks elite hitters are subject to substantial drops in performance based on things like changing leagues and adjusting are so out of touch. These guys have the innate ability to make adjustments to 95 mph fastballs, so thinking that moving from the NL Central to the AL East would be cause for concern is so f***ing stupid I want to pound my head against the wall.

 

So he sucked last year because....

 

 

Edit: in terms to adjusting to 95 mph fastballs. He doesn't have the superstar hit tool anymore and it's obvious

Edited January 10, 2017 by LetTheBallFly

[TheHurl]

So he sucked last year because....

 

 

Edit: in terms to adjusting to 95 mph fastballs. He doesn't have the superstar hit tool anymore and it's obvious

 

Almost as obvious as it is that Vlad is a sure shot to win multiple MVPs

[Jimcanuck]

Almost as obvious as it is that Vlad is a sure shot to win multiple MVPs

 

It's bad enough having to watch Thor from time to time. I can't see Shatkins being stupid enough to move Vlad.

[Daniel Labude]

Almost as obvious as it is that Vlad is a sure shot to win multiple MVPs

 

Better value than McCutchen for 2 years...imo

[Spanky99]

It's bad enough having to watch Thor from time to time. I can't see Shatkins being stupid enough to move Vlad.

 

So Vladdy's a sure shot?

[Sorrow]

So he sucked last year because....

 

 

Edit: in terms to adjusting to 95 mph fastballs. He doesn't have the superstar hit tool anymore and it's obvious

 

Hit well in the second half and finish the season hitting like he generally does. A lot of his defensive woes were apparently from positioning though a nagging injury could also have contributed.

 

I'm not sure if I'd move Vlad Jr for McCutchen if it's like Vlad Jr. ++ but as a straight up trade it couldn't really hurt.

[Daniel Labude]

Hit well in the second half and finish the season hitting like he generally does. A lot of his defensive woes were apparently from positioning though a nagging injury could also have contributed.

 

I'm not sure if I'd move Vlad Jr for McCutchen if it's like Vlad Jr. ++ but as a straight up trade it couldn't really hurt.

 

I don't think Pittsburgh would even consider straight up based on some of their reported asking prices. It just reminds me too much of the Dickey deal. Just way too much risk to be dealing top prospects for...

[Jimcanuck]

So Vladdy's a sure shot?

 

Of course not. Just pointing out the risk of Cutch/Vlad being a repeat of Dickey/Thor. Quite a risk to take even with Cutch making this team a 2nd tier contender (behind teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Nats, Mets).

[GD]

Of course not. Just pointing out the risk of Cutch/Vlad being a repeat of Dickey/Thor. Quite a risk to take even with Cutch making this team a 2nd tier contender (behind teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Nats, Mets).

 

lol, i read this exact comment on Reddit accidentally when I was trying to get to the news

[Sorrow]

I don't think Pittsburgh would even consider straight up based on some of their reported asking prices. It just reminds me too much of the Dickey deal. Just way too much risk to be dealing top prospects for...

 

I don't think they would either. I mean worst comes to worst for Pitts is he plays for 2 more years as a 4-5 win player potentially and the get a draft pick.

[Spanky99]

Of course not. Just pointing out the risk of Cutch/Vlad being a repeat of Dickey/Thor. Quite a risk to take even with Cutch making this team a 2nd tier contender (behind teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Nats, Mets).

 

Gotcha.

[Brownie19]

Right, my bad. I just wanted to use some generic bust with okay upside in the system that isn't worth anything.

 

The name you're searching for is D.J. Davis...

[TheHurl]

Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.

[Jimcanuck]

Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.

 

Let's add to this that the Jays at the time of the Dickey trade had multiple pitching prospects and were regarded by many as having the best crop of pitching prospects in the majors - dealing from a position of surplus. They don't have that today wrt position players.

 

Not defending the Dickey trade, just to be clear.

[Terminator]

Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.

 

The Dickey move was widely panned and the Vlad move would probably be similarly panned. Not to trying to s*** on your theory but I'm not sure what has changed other than the Front Offices.

[TheHurl]

Let's add to this that the Jays at the time of the Dickey trade had multiple pitching prospects and were regarded by many as having the best crop of pitching prospects in the majors - dealing from a position of surplus. They don't have that today wrt position players.

 

And of course the Jays were locked up at catcher for the next 15 years with JPA.

[Spanky99]

And of course the Jays were locked up at catcher for the next 15 years with JPA.

 

lol... your snark is certainly up on the #1 title rank, love it.

[TheHurl]

The Dickey move was widely panned and the Vlad move would probably be similarly panned. Not to trying to s*** on your theory but I'm not sure what has changed other than the Front Offices.

 

The move was widely panned because it was 2 top 30 prospects for a pitcher coming off their best season ever (and really was only under contract for 1 more year from the Mets point of view on things. This would be paying under market value for a guy that had the worst season of their career. If the Jays believe that Cutch is a 3.5 win player as he's projected for (remember that AA was trading essentially for a guy that was a 5 win player that he said he thought would get even better) it's probably a bargain to get him for a single prospect.

 

Comparable trade for an OF which is projected for 3.5 wins and two years left on their contract would be

Upton from the Braves to the Padres for a top 50 spect (Fried) a top 100 prospect (Jace Peterson) and two top 200 prospects (Smith and other Peterson). Padres were thought to get a steal in that deal. But Upton is younger and not coming off a bad season so we'll ignore that one.

 

1.5 years of Cespedes (who would have been projected as much lower than Cutch) was traded for a pitcher having a Cy Young season (Lester), and then was traded again for future Cy Young award winner (Porcello) who had averaged over 2 fWAR at age 26. Finally was dealt with 1 year left on his contract for Top 50 prospect (who went on to win rookie of the year).

 

Hunter Pence with 2.5 years left on his contract was traded for a top 75 prospect (Cosart), a top 40 prospect (Singleton), And a 17 year old prospect who was playing in low A.

 

If Vlad is the only big piece in the deal it's about what can be expected (or lower) for two years of an OF projected around where Cutch is. It's more what do you think Cutch will be. But if Vlad Jr. wasn't a Jr. and just a really high priced international signee who had a good debut, I don't think there would be the same fight back.