Around Baseball 2017

[G-Snarls]

I would enjoy him at leadoff if he is going to be .340-.350 OBP Dee Gordon, as opposed to .300 OBP Dee Gordon.

 

Yeah he's been a 70-90 wRC+ guy for the last 3 years

[Dr. Dinger]

I'd put a lot of money on Stanton not accruing 30 WAR over the rest of his career.

 

It's really a best case scenario and almost assumes no time missed due to injury. I was going to mock out a conservative scenario and disaster scenario, but really I was more just curious to see if there was any scenario where there's surplus value on the contract, and to my surprise, there is.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah he's been a 70-90 wRC+ guy for the last 3 years

 

Yeah but it's not like we have a ton of great hitters to slide in that spot as an option. In the scenario where we acquire Gordon and Stanton, I'd prefer to keep Donaldson at #2 and Stanton at #4.

[G-Snarls]

I'd rather pay Stanton than Donaldson for 2020 and beyond.

 

I'm sure some team will still give up a few B- prospects for him plus his salary

 

 

[Abomination]

 

 

The Yankees almost certainly won't. It's strongly rumored that they want to get under the cap prior to blowing their wad in 2019.

[Terminator]

It's really a best case scenario and almost assumes no time missed due to injury. I was going to mock out a conservative scenario and disaster scenario, but really I was more just curious to see if there was any scenario where there's surplus value on the contract, and to my surprise, there is.

 

At the same time though I think you might have been decreasing his WAR too much, too quickly. I don't think his skillset falls off at a WAR a year pace while he's still in his 20's. I think that half WAR falloff would start around age 32 or so wouldn't it?

[Dr. Dinger]

At the same time though I think you might have been decreasing his WAR too much, too quickly. I don't think his skillset falls off at a WAR a year pace while he's still in his 20's. I think that half WAR falloff would start around age 32 or so wouldn't it?

 

Decline isn't usually so linear, it's more of a mean projection. Conversely you could make a strong argument that projecting him for 6 WAR next year is too optimistic given his extensive history of missing huge chunks of a season.

[Abomination]

At the same time though I think you might have been decreasing his WAR too much, too quickly. I don't think his skillset falls off at a WAR a year pace while he's still in his 20's. I think that half WAR falloff would start around age 32 or so wouldn't it?

 

The bat probably won't, but the defense might (especially with the injuries he's had to the legs in previous years).

[Brownie19]

Take whatever s*** you have to and get Yelich.

 

Man - Yelich would look phenomenal in a Jays uni....although he's a bit like Hosmer - needs to hit the ball in the air more.

[Cbert]

I'd love some Gordon and Stanton in this lineup. I had mentioned going after both around the trade deadline and would still love to see a ballsy move like that now. It sounds like they want some major leaguers in addition to prospects. What could a package look like from the Jays?

I was thinking Pillar, Travis and Biagini from the ML team with a few meh prospects like Pannone and Noda and one quality guy like Pearson.

 

Losing Pearson would be the only painful move in that deal for the Jays. There's risk in there for the Marlins, too, but there's a lot of quantity in that deal with some interesting names.

[bendera3]

Former Jays farmhand Michael Crouse was voted the independent Atlantic League defensive player of the year. He even got a "Web Gems" on Sportscenter robbing former Jays farmhand KC Hobson of a homerun.

[John_Havok]

I'd love some Gordon and Stanton in this lineup. I had mentioned going after both around the trade deadline and would still love to see a ballsy move like that now. It sounds like they want some major leaguers in addition to prospects. What could a package look like from the Jays?

I was thinking Pillar, Travis and Biagini from the ML team with a few meh prospects like Pannone and Noda and one quality guy like Pearson.

 

Losing Pearson would be the only painful move in that deal for the Jays. There's risk in there for the Marlins, too, but there's a lot of quantity in that deal with some interesting names.

 

So I'm reading that you want to trade for Stanton and Gordon... but the best player you're offering up is Travis, and the best prospect is Pearson?

 

I get the salary thing in both guys but that doesn't mean you get to offer junk. No offense, but that offer would be laughed off the phone.

[Abomination]

So I'm reading that you want to trade for Stanton and Gordon... but the best player you're offering up is Travis, and the best prospect is Pearson?

 

I get the salary thing in both guys but that doesn't mean you get to offer junk. No offense, but that offer would be laughed off the phone.

 

Will they actually get anything better? Stanton wasn't claimed by anyone when he was put through revocable waivers, they seem to want to trade him, and have been clear about not eating salary. If no one was willing to claim him for no return and risk having him dumped on them, why would they pay now?

[John_Havok]

Will they actually get anything better? Stanton wasn't claimed by anyone when he was put through revocable waivers, they seem to want to trade him, and have been clear about not eating salary. If no one was willing to claim him for no return and risk having him dumped on them, why would they pay now?

 

Guys like Stanton don't get claimed on revocable waivers simply because they know he will get pulled back in a heartbeat. It's not because of valuations. Basically, the Marlins put him on waivers because they want other GMs to call them and guage interest in him for potential offseason moves.

[Cbert]

So I'm reading that you want to trade for Stanton and Gordon... but the best player you're offering up is Travis, and the best prospect is Pearson?

 

I get the salary thing in both guys but that doesn't mean you get to offer junk. No offense, but that offer would be laughed off the phone.

 

It's not the greatest package, I agree, but I don't think it gets laughed off either. How many teams can realistically take on that much salary in one go and actually need to do so to be competitive right now? The Jays are one. Maybe the Phillies and Braves? There won't be that many suitors they have to beat out. I'd switch one or two guys around a bit, but I wouldn't give up more top prospects. Bottom line, I don't think the player cost is high enough that it should scare the Jays away.

[Abomination]

Guys like Stanton don't get claimed on revocable waivers simply because they know he will get pulled back in a heartbeat. It's not because of valuations. Basically, the Marlins put him on waivers because they want other GMs to call them and guage interest in him for potential offseason moves.

 

Most players are supposedly put on revocable waivers, and you hear of very few decent ones that clear them unless they have stupid salaries. I don't think it's at all clear that the reasoning is as you suggest. It's also not clear that Stanton will provide surplus value on what's left of his contract, even if he stays pretty healthy. Obviously we'll see when he's eventually traded, but I'd be surprised to see a noteworthy return unless they eat money.

[Omar]

I just can't see Shapiro coughing up the remaining 10 years/$295 million for Stanton, especially given his injury history. It would be so un-Shapiro like.

 

[John_Havok]

It's not the greatest package, I agree, but I don't think it gets laughed off either. How many teams can realistically take on that much salary in one go and actually need to do so to be competitive right now? The Jays are one. Maybe the Phillies and Braves? There won't be that many suitors they have to beat out. I'd switch one or two guys around a bit, but I wouldn't give up more top prospects. Bottom line, I don't think the player cost is high enough that it should scare the Jays away.

 

Yankees. Then they sign Machado and Harper and win the WS for the next 10 years.

[Cbert]

Yankees. Then they sign Machado and Harper and win the WS for the next 10 years.

 

So I'm guessing that's a joke, lol. But that's a reason why the Jays should pursue him. The Yanks can't because they need to reset their luxury tax penalties before going wild next year. Even the Dodgers don't want to go further into the luxury tax.

 

In short, trade for Stanton and Gordon, Donaldson for Reyes, sign Otani. WS Champs 2018. All of Canada gets wasted.

[John_Havok]

So I'm guessing that's a joke, lol. But that's a reason why the Jays should pursue him. The Yanks can't because they need to reset their luxury tax penalties before going wild next year. Even the Dodgers don't want to go further into the luxury tax.

 

In short, trade for Stanton and Gordon, Donaldson for Reyes, sign Otani. WS Champs 2018. All of Canada gets wasted.

 

Only partially a joke. Sabathia, Holliday, Garcia, Pineda and Frazier are all FAs after this year, with 70 million off the books, Gardner in 2 years (likely) and Headley and Robertson after next season.. thats another 38 million. Their arbitration guys aren't going to end up taking a massive chunk of that, with Sanchez, Judge and Severino still pre-arb.

 

Just saying they could probably make it work if they got creative enough

[Cbert]

Only partially a joke. Sabathia, Holliday, Garcia, Pineda and Frazier are all FAs after this year, with 70 million off the books, Gardner in 2 years (likely) and Headley and Robertson after next season.. thats another 38 million. Their arbitration guys aren't going to end up taking a massive chunk of that, with Sanchez, Judge and Severino still pre-arb.

 

Just saying they could probably make it work if they got creative enough

 

Yea I guess there's always a way when you can operate the way they do. They've got 114mill tied up for next year though, and baseball reference projects it to be close to 150 after arbitration. It'd be tough to take on Stanton, get a quality starter and fill a few other positions with short term guys and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

[Abomination]

Yea I guess there's always a way when you can operate the way they do. They've got 114mill tied up for next year though, and baseball reference projects it to be close to 150 after arbitration. It'd be tough to take on Stanton, get a quality starter and fill a few other positions with short term guys and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

 

Yeah, not resetting the luxury tax AND taking on Stanton's contract would make it really, really expensive for them.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, not resetting the luxury tax AND taking on Stanton's contract would make it really, really expensive for them.

 

It would, but imagine them trading Gardner and Robertson to free up another 25 million and it doesn't seem too difficult. They might end up with a stars and scrubs lineup though which probably isn't ideal

[Cbert]

It would, but imagine them trading Gardner and Robertson to free up another 25 million and it doesn't seem too difficult. They might end up with a stars and scrubs lineup though which probably isn't ideal

 

I think they could definitely do that, but I don't see any reason for them to. If they were to take on Stanton's contract and seriously pursue Machado and Harper, then they're just making it harder for themselves to extend their young players without paying huge penalties years from now. I don't think they want to operate that way anymore.

[G-Snarls]

Multiple report say Red Sox plan to hire Alex Cora as manager

 

Awkward announcement as he's in the playoffs as bench coach for the Astros

 

Hmmmm

[Spanky__99]

Multiple report say Red Sox plan to hire Alex Cora as manager

 

Awkward announcement as he's in the playoffs as bench coach for the Astros

 

Hmmmm

 

Happens all the time, brosoff!

[G-Snarls]

Happens all the time, brosoff!

 

Seems like they may have bad an agreement with Cora before they canned Farrell even given the time for the hire

[Spanky__99]

Seems like they may have bad an agreement with Cora before they canned Farrell even given the time for the hire

 

Possible, or they called and had a phone interview and Cora/Bosox came to an agreement a few days ago. It's perfectly legal.

[John_Havok]

Possible, or they called and had a phone interview and Cora/Bosox came to an agreement a few days ago. It's perfectly legal.

 

It's weird they would announce it during the playoffs that he's still involved in though. Usually they would wait until Houston is out to make any announcement

[Spanky__99]

It's weird they would announce it during the playoffs that he's still involved in though. Usually they would wait until Houston is out to make any announcement

 

It's leaked, not announced. Gardenhire apparently was just hired by the Tigers.