Locking up young Blue Jays

[CanuckofChicago]

Hey everyone.

 

I usually lurk around this board and find sometimes very interesting debates, plus living in the states I usually come here for my Blue Jay news.

 

Anyway, I was listening to MLB Network radio this morning and they were talking about which young players would us fans like to see lock up early either as cost-certainty or as possible future trade chips, so I thought I would take this question to the board and see what their thoughts were.

 

In my opinion, since we do not have alot of younger players right now, I would probably focus on Sanchez and Travis if they can repeat and/or improve on 2015.

[Jimcanuck]

Hey everyone.

 

I usually lurk around this board and find sometimes very interesting debates, plus living in the states I usually come here for my Blue Jay news.

 

Anyway, I was listening to MLB Network radio this morning and they were talking about which young players would us fans like to see lock up early either as cost-certainty or as possible future trade chips, so I thought I would take this question to the board and see what their thoughts were.

 

In my opinion, since we do not have alot of younger players right now, I would probably focus on Sanchez and Travis if they can repeat and/or improve on 2015.

 

No question some of the salary room opened up should be used to buy some FA years - Stroman and a few others.

[BTS]

I don't really see a candidate for a long-term extension at this point. Not really into a long-term commitment to Sanchez (or Stroman for that matter) with 4 years of team control left. Pitching is too scary. I don't really see the urgency to commit to Travis before we know what he his. Big questions about his health and about how good he really is.

 

People have thrown Pillar around as a candidate, but we already control his age 28-31 seasons. I don't think I want to commit to his age-32 season, 5 years in the future, when he can't hit and relies almost exclusively on his legs. Defense doesn't pay in arb anyway.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't really see a candidate for a long-term extension at this point. Not really into a long-term commitment to Sanchez (or Stroman for that matter) with 4 years of team control left. Pitching is too scary. I don't really see the urgency to commit to Travis before we know what he his. Big questions about his health and about how good he really is.

 

People have thrown Pillar around as a candidate, but we already control his age 28-31 seasons. I don't think I want to commit to his age-32 season, 5 years in the future, when he can't hit and relies almost exclusively on his legs. Defense doesn't pay in arb anyway.

 

Yes, it's a bit early, mid season 2017 the conversation could start with Stro provided he continues to pitch well and no health concerns.

[TBJ12]

Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, Osuna, Travis and even Biagini could all be extension candidates.

[Pendleton]

I don't really see a candidate for a long-term extension at this point. Not really into a long-term commitment to Sanchez (or Stroman for that matter) with 4 years of team control left. Pitching is too scary. I don't really see the urgency to commit to Travis before we know what he his. Big questions about his health and about how good he really is.

 

People have thrown Pillar around as a candidate, but we already control his age 28-31 seasons. I don't think I want to commit to his age-32 season, 5 years in the future, when he can't hit and relies almost exclusively on his legs. Defense doesn't pay in arb anyway.

 

Well said, I don't see any rush for the Jays to hand out extensions at the present time.

[jaysblue]

I don't see the Jays being in a rush to lock anyone up right at this moment. Perhaps after 2017 you'll start hearing conversations about Stroman, Sanchez, Travis and Osuna depending on the years they have.

[TheHurl]

I like team friendly extensions for hitters. Better be a really good extension for a pitcher. So no real great candidates for the Jays

[Jimcanuck]

Well said, I don't see any rush for the Jays to hand out extensions at the present time.

 

Stro a free agent after 2020. By mid 2017 the conversation could start, a 4 yrs @ $12M/yr with two club option years for $14M and $16M... just spitballing the numbers

[Dick_Pole]

They already did the best "extension" type of contract you could ever want. Locking up the Cuban kid. I'd rather the team spend $21M over 7 years to try to catch lightning in a bottle from him than extending anyone on the current roster for that long. I hate to say it, but the guys who the Jays have for 3+ years all look like pretty good candidates for injury risk or decline 5 years out. No point in extending any of them. Sanchez would be the best candidate imo and I'm not exactly convinced he wouldn't Ricky Romero that contract.

[Dick_Pole]

Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, Osuna, Travis and even Biagini could all be extension candidates.

 

Ok, now you're just drunk.

[Maahfaace]

They already did the best "extension" type of contract you could ever want. Locking up the Cuban kid. I'd rather the team spend $21M over 7 years to try to catch lightning in a bottle from him than extending anyone on the current roster for that long. I hate to say it, but the guys who the Jays have for 3+ years all look like pretty good candidates for injury risk or decline 5 years out. No point in extending any of them. Sanchez would be the best candidate imo and I'm not exactly convinced he wouldn't Ricky Romero that contract.

 

I wouldn't extend Sanchez, he's been great but someone who relies exclusively on his fastball to pitch is at a greater risk to turn to s*** than someone who knows how to pitch (ie Estrada)

[flafson]

To me, it makes a lot of sense to extend Stroman and Sanchez now, pre-arb they are much more willing to accept pennies where if you wait for arbitration, they already have a strong idea of how much they can make and are using those figures as the floor.

Only way to get a massive discount is pre-arb IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

I wouldn't extend Sanchez, he's been great but someone who relies exclusively on his fastball to pitch is at a greater risk to turn to s*** than someone who knows how to pitch (ie Estrada)

 

Yes that's why i mentioned Stro but not Sanchez, or Osuna.

 

Travis needs to show he's not made of glass before considering an extension for him.

[The Cats Ass]

Travis. Even though he hasn't been healthy yet now would be the time to get him on a cheap contract using his injury history as a bargaining chip. if he's healthy this year and has hit like he has so far in his MLB career his price is only going to go up.

[L54]

No need to extend Stroman or Sanchez unless it looks like Quintana's deal. Travis might never be healthy for an entire year and extending closers with lots of team control and TJS is a no no.

[Jimcanuck]

One of the considerations is when is the next realistic contention timeline. 2020 is Martin expiration, 2021 is Tulo expiration. Also ETA of Guerrero. Stro/Sanchez/Osuna/Travis will still be close to peak, health permitting. Extending a couple of these guys past 2020 at less than market rate helps set up the Jays to field a very competitive team from 2020 on. There is risk of course, but running a baseball team is inherently about risk.

[burlingtonbandit]

Think it all depends on the price. I would sign Pillar for the same money Inciarte got. I'd also sign Sanchez or Stroman to a Bumgarner contract but if its going to be 5 years with $50 Million Gtd then I'd just play it year to year.

[BTS]

Think it all depends on the price. I would sign Pillar for the same money Inciarte got. I'd also sign Sanchez or Stroman to a Bumgarner contract but if its going to be 5 years with $50 Million Gtd then I'd just play it year to year.

 

But why? You'd be locking into his last near-minimum year and three arb years, with no bargain (losing the ability to non-tender him) all to commit to his age-32 season for 9M and get a 9M option on his age-33 season. Is 85 wRC+ Kevin Pillar going to get such a big FA deal at 32 that you need to lock into his arb years and buy a free agent year in 2021 for 9M? Very good chance he's not even a starter by that point.

[CanuckofChicago]

I wasn't sure what Shapiro's MO is. I know back in the day with the Indians, granted it was most likely John Hart, but they locked up Kenny Lofton, Albert Belle, Carlos Baegra to team friendly contracts.

 

In regards to the length of contracts, I think they would have to at least payout their arbitration years and then a couple years of their free agency.

[Terminator]

I like team friendly extensions for hitters. Better be a really good extension for a pitcher. So no real great candidates for the Jays

 

That's a good policy. The Ricky Romero extension was BAD. That's an example of extending decent but not great young pitching talent and seeing it blow up in your face.

[CHRIS]

I think one of the benefits of the Jays' payroll capacity is that they don't *necessarily* have to lock up guys.

 

While there are certainly exceptions to every rule, I'm fine if they take the majority of guys year-by-year through arbitration years and then make more informed decisions at that point. Sure, you may have to pay more for some of the guys that age well, but at least you'd be paying for something you still want; and at the same time eliminate a lot of the sunk costs for guys that don't pan out/blow out their arm/etc.

[Ray]

I'd give it until the end of 2017. Then we can really measure how good some of these guys are. Obviously if Sanchez has a another great season, he's a prime candidate for an extension.

 

I'd be comfortable extending Osuna now though.

[burlingtonbandit]

But why? You'd be locking into his last near-minimum year and three arb years, with no bargain (losing the ability to non-tender him) all to commit to his age-32 season for 9M and get a 9M option on his age-33 season. Is 85 wRC+ Kevin Pillar going to get such a big FA deal at 32 that you need to lock into his arb years and buy a free agent year in 2021 for 9M? Very good chance he's not even a starter by that point.

 

I think his bat is better than a 85wRC+. By the time 2021 rolls around a win is probably going to cost more than $10 Million so you'd be only paying him as a 4th OF anyway.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think one of the benefits of the Jays' payroll capacity is that they don't *necessarily* have to lock up guys.

 

While there are certainly exceptions to every rule, I'm fine if they take the majority of guys year-by-year through arbitration years and then make more informed decisions at that point. Sure, you may have to pay more for some of the guys that age well, but at least you'd be paying for something you still want; and at the same time eliminate a lot of the sunk costs for guys that don't pan out/blow out their arm/etc.

 

I think that's a bad strategy. You should be able to tell pretty early on what a player's talent level is and be able to project that. Even if you lock up 3 guys and 1 of them falters you still get so much surplus value out of the whole.

 

I think the superstar players are way less likely to sign extensions now anyways. Everyone realizes Trout left so much money on the table and once Harper signs for $400 Million all the Bryants and Betts of the world are just going to wait the 6 years.

[BTS]

I think his bat is better than a 85wRC+. By the time 2021 rolls around a win is probably going to cost more than $10 Million so you'd be only paying him as a 4th OF anyway.

 

What are the odds that a 32-year old Pillar gets a contract for more than 9M a year though? Probably not very high, and if his defense does hold up he's still unlikely to make enough for the team to save significant money by locking in at 9M 5 years early. I just don't see the upside.

[wamco]

Saves pay huge in Arby.

[wamco]

Sanchez and stroman and osuna yes. Pillar never. Travis not yet. Gotta put a full season in first. About that time of year where Atkins gotta be thinking of extending smoak as well.

[TheHurl]

No need to extend Stroman or Sanchez unless it looks like Quintana's deal. Travis might never be healthy for an entire year and extending closers with lots of team control and TJS is a no no.

 

Yeah locking them up through their arbitration at a guaranteed amount with team options for the 2 years following is pretty low risk as far as extensions go. They also have to be willing to accept it of course.

[TheHurl]

What are the odds that a 32-year old Pillar gets a contract for more than 9M a year though? Probably not very high, and if his defense does hold up he's still unlikely to make enough for the team to save significant money by locking in at 9M 5 years early. I just don't see the upside.

 

I'm not even sure if his arbitration comps will make him worth while to extend him. Defensive first players have never done will in arbitration. Carlos Gomez got $8.4M in his 4 arbitration years.