Blue Jays ZIPS projections

[TheHurl]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

 

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Jays-Depth.png

 

Stole this from someone that already took the time to write it up)

 

1. 2B Travis 471pa, 113ops+, 2.9war, 4.0war/650

2. 3B Donaldson 657pa, 141ops+, 7.0war, 6.9war/650

3. 1B

4. DH Morales 557pa, 115ops+, 2.0war, 2.3war/650

5. SS Tulowitzki 481pa, 106ops+, 3.3war, 4.5war/650

6. C Martin 462pa, 102ops+, 3.1war, 4.4war/650

7. CF Pillar 609pa, 92ops+, 3.2war, 3.4war/650

8. RF Pompey 497pa, 76ops+, 0.8war, 1.1war/650

9. LF Carrera 381pa, 81ops+, 0.6war, 1.0war/650

B. UT Smoak 387pa, 97ops+, 0.4war, 0.7war/650

B. OF Upton 433pa, 77ops+, 0.4war, 0.6war/650

B. IF Goins 425pa, 61ops+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650

B. C Jimenez 240pa, 74ops+, 0.9war, 2.4war/650

B. UT Tellez 514pa, 102ops+, 0.7war, 0.9war/650

B. IF Gurriel 567pa, 102ops+, 1.7war, 2.0war/650

X Encarnacion 576pa, 137ops+, 3.6war, 4.1war/650

X Bautista 510pa, 134ops+, 3.1war, 4.0war/650

X Saunders 427pa, 112ops+, 1.7war, 2.6war/650

SP Sanchez 31gs, 78era-, 86fip-, 4.6war, 4.8war/32gs

SP Estrada 29gs, 89era-, 102fip-, 3.1war, 3.4war/32gs

SP Stroman 23gs, 92era-, 85fip-, 2.2war, 3.1war/32gs

SP Happ 27gs, 92era-, 93fip-, 2.5war, 3.0war/32gs

SP Liriano 28gs, 98era-, 102fip-, 2.0war, 2.3war/32gs

SP Bolsinger 20gs, 107era-, 101fip-, 0.9war, 1.4war/32gs

SP Reid-Foley 24gs, 121era-, 117fip-, 0.0war, 0.0war/32gs

RP Osuna 71.2ip, 64era-, 71fip-, 1.4war, 1.3war/65ip

RP Barnes 66.1ip, 82era-, 78fip-, 0.7war, 0.7war/65ip

RP Biagini 66.2ip, 88era-, 90fip-, 0.5war, 0.5war/65ip

RP Grilli 41.1ip, 86era-, 88fip-, 0.3war, 0.5war/65ip

RP Tepera 61.0ip, 93era-, 96fip-, 0.3war, 0.3war/65ip

RP Loup 48.0ip, 92era-, 95fip-, 0.2war, 0.3war/65ip

RP Campos 58.1ip, 93era-, 90fip-, 0.2war, 0.2war/65ip

RP Leone 62.0ip, 105era-, 97fip-, -0.1war, -0.1war/65ip

RP Girodo 56.1ip, 112era-, 111fip-, -0.3war, -0.4war/65ip

[Grant77]

This is a playoff team if we get 2+ WAR from 1B and the corner outfield spots. Hopefully we can do that.

[Orgfiller]

Interesting how well AJ Jimenez projects in terms of value despite his offense being regarded as garbage. This can't be just regular positional adjustment can it?

[Terminator]

Wow, if we fill our lineup holes with capable people we are looking great according to Zips.

[jays4life19]

Really really nice Sanchez projection.

[TheHurl]

Interesting how well AJ Jimenez projects in terms of value despite his offense being regarded as garbage. This can't be just regular positional adjustment can it?

 

They seem to have him rated higher defensively than Martin. Not at all from what I've seen/heard. Essentially they have around Rene Rivera defensively.

[Grant77]

So we have a total of 40.5 WAR (88.5 wins) with our 5 infielders, Pillar, Morales, the rotation, and the top 5 relievers. If we can add decent players at our 3 open positions and a couple of good relievers then we could definitely project for 95 wins. I wouldn't be comfortable predicting that, but it's nice to see.

[Orgfiller]

Something to note is the Morales' defensive contribution is rated as a 0, rather than negative. He basically projects for a win higher than last year despite the same offensive output, so probably take the under there unless he exceeds his offensive projection (possible in a better ballpark suited to his profile perhaps?). Not entirely sold on Travis, but 2.9 WAR is not an exaggeration.

 

Don't have any problems with the rotation, I would take the over on Stroman and Liriano could fluctuate massively in either direction, maybe a slight under on Sanchez.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Interesting thanks!

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

So we have a total of 40.5 WAR (88.5 wins) with our 5 infielders, Pillar, Morales, the rotation, and the top 5 relievers. If we can add decent players at our 3 open positions and a couple of good relievers then we could definitely project for 95 wins. I wouldn't be comfortable predicting that, but it's nice to see.

 

Who all did or didn't you use to arrive at that number?

[BigCecil]

Pillar a consistent 3+ WAR producer projecting that again. I know its mostly from D, but few including myself, thought he would never be more than a 4th OF. Pretty cool. Wish he could hit lol

[TheHurl]

Don't have any problems with the rotation, I would take the over on Stroman and Liriano could fluctuate massively in either direction, maybe a slight under on Sanchez.

 

Player over/under. This year's contest?

[burlingtonbandit]

Resign Bautista, sign Fowler/ platoon bat for RF and this is a pretty good team. Zips seems quite high on a few players though.

[glory]

Sign Fowler and Pearce, trade for Granderson, sign a reliever. Not sure how much that will cost, but would put the Jays in a good spot.

[Orgfiller]

Player over/under. This year's contest?

 

I'm pretty comfortable in saying that the participation in such a contest would be high.

[L54]

I'm pretty comfortable in saying that the participation in such a contest would be high.

 

Yup I would definitely think so

[Atothe]

I'd take the under on Sanchez and Happ. I have a feeling Morales will completely s*** the bed opening the door for Rowdy

[L54]

I really hope Morales doesn't s*** the bed in year one of a three deal

[Orgfiller]

I'd take the under on Sanchez and Happ. I have a feeling Morales will completely s*** the bed opening the door for Rowdy

 

With our current 1B situation, he doesn't even have to s*** the bed to give Tellez a shot, unless Smoak somehow breaks out.

[TBJ12]

I'd take the under on Sanchez and Happ. I have a feeling Morales will completely s*** the bed opening the door for Rowdy

 

Doors already wide open for Rowdy if the Jays go into 2017 with Smoak as their first baseman.

[Gary]

I really hope Morales doesn't s*** the bed in year one of a three deal

He's in for a career year.

[Grant77]

Another year where an extra $15-20M in budget could make us the AL favourites.

 

My whole life I've heard the "If we're contending, Rogers will give us the money to get us over the top" mantra. Is this not exactly that scenario? And last year as well?

 

You don't know what our payroll will be. Most of the big ticket free agents and trade targets are still available.

[intentional wok]

Colabello is on that graphic. I thought the Jays let him go from the system?

[Spanky99]

Colabello is on that graphic. I thought the Jays let him go from the system?

 

No, he's on the 40 man... has an option left, also.

[AdamGreenwood]

Another year where an extra $15-20M in budget could make us the AL favourites.

 

My whole life I've heard the "If we're contending, Rogers will give us the money to get us over the top" mantra. Is this not exactly that scenario? And last year as well?

 

What would we do with $15-20 M that would practically guarantee us 2-3 WAR?

[RealAccountant]

How come there is such a great variance between Steamer predictions and Zips

 

Zips has Sanchez at 4.5 but Steamer only 3. Same with Estrada too,

 

Pretty much every bluejays Zips is higher.

[Bobthe4th]

Steamer predictions for WAR:

 

 

Martin 2.5 in 116 games

Saltalamacchia N/A (not yet updated as he's on 0 games, they have Graterol and AJ sharing backup duties at a combined 0.1 WAR in 31 games)

 

Smoak 0.1 in 115 games

Pearce 1.3 in 91 games

 

Travis 1.8 in 117 games

Barney 0.2 in 38 games

(Goins 0.0 in 36 games)

 

Donaldson 6.1 in 145 games

 

Tulowitzki 2.8 in 119 games

 

Upton 0.2 in 88 games

Pillar 2.8 in 134 games

Bautista 2.6 in 124 games

Carrera 0.0 in 50 games

(Pompey 0.5 in 57 games)

 

Morales 0.8 in 129 games

 

Sanchez 3.0

Stroman 3.1

Happ 2.5

Estrada 1.4

Liriano 2.2

 

Osuna 0.9

Grilli 0.5

Biagini 0.5

Howell 0.2

Floyd 0.1

Loup 0.4

Sparkman 0.2

Barnes 0.4

Bolsinger 0.5

Dermody 0.0

Tepera 0.2

Girodo 0.0

Schultz 0.1

[Bobthe4th]

38 WAR in total, i.e 86 wins. Pearce, Travis, Barney, Sanchez are particularly low IMO.

[burlingtonbandit]

38 WAR in total, i.e 86 wins. Pearce, Travis, Barney, Sanchez are particularly low IMO.

 

Pitching is usually going to be a bit lower because of injury risk.

[Nafro]

I was kind of under the impression adding up a teams total projected WAR to predict outcome of season was not a great idea.