Should Osuna Start in 2017?

[King]

No.

[KingKat]

I posted this in the Biagini thread but I might as well post it here. Osuna was second on the pitching staff in WPA behind only Sanchez. He's providing tons of value as is. There's really no reason to mess with it.

[Krylian]

That ship had sailed.

 

He should... But he won't.

[Pendleton]

I'll always be curious just how good of a starter Osuna may have become, but at this point it would almost be a foolish move. He's one of our most valuable players in his current role, and we don't have a need for starters. That's without even getting into Osuna's past arm issues.

 

He's our closer from here on out and I don't know if we've ever had one who was this good right out of the gate (sorry Billy Koch).

 

Our pitching staff doesn't need much in the way of tweaking this off season. Try and add a quality reliever or two, no need for a bold move like this.

[G-Snarls]

while researching a bit I came up with this article. Pretty insane how much attention we gave to Storen

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/03/22/osuna-wants-to-close-but-will-wait-his-turn-if-need-be-dimanno.html

 

F'n Drew Storen

 

Agggghhhhhhh

[Dick_Pole]

I'll always be curious just how good of a starter Osuna may have become, but at this point it would almost be a foolish move. He's one of our most valuable players in his current role, and we don't have a need for starters. That's without even getting into Osuna's past arm issues.

 

He's our closer from here on out and I don't know if we've ever had one who was this good right out of the gate (sorry Billy Koch).

 

Our pitching staff doesn't need much in the way of tweaking this off season. Try and add a quality reliever or two, no need for a bold move like this.

 

I think they'll be dealing from strength. Especially if the FO strikes out on the FA market to fill up the outfield.

[Bobthe4th]

I think they'll be dealing from strength. Especially if the FO strikes out on the FA market to fill up the outfield.

 

It's an option made even more attractive by the weak SP free agent market - we could ask for a lot for Estrada from a team that needs pitching to take a run at the World Series like say Texas.

 

Unfortunately if we fail to get what we need in free agency, we may not have much choice.

[Laika]

Osuna should definitely start.....

 

 

..... packing his bags!

 

 

Trade him now

[Bobthe4th]

BTS just floated the idea of a mega contract offer to Chapman (or Jansen) in another thread. That's the only scenario I can see where it's even an option to convert Osuna.

 

Even then it'd be more likely to be Biagini that's stretched out.

[UWHabs]

I think they'll be dealing from strength. Especially if the FO strikes out on the FA market to fill up the outfield.

 

Yep, I think you basically have to trade one of Liriano/Estrada/Happ. We have 5 viable SP, so let's deal one of them, stretch out Biagini to start next year as our #5 guy, and aim to get a top corner OF/DH bat in return for the starter we deal. Estrada with only 1 year left is probably the guy I target trading. I could see a team like the Dodgers want to take a chance on him, and they have a real excess of OF (assume they keep Joc, but they also have Ethier, Toles, Kendrick, Puig, as well as Van Slyke and Thompson). They could afford to trade 2 outfielders and still have more than enough to fill out a roster with.

[polar bear]

If the young guy has kind of ambition,he should be biting at the bit to make it as a starter.

If it doesn't work out,at least we know what he is good at.

A big yes for me.

[L54]

Why are we trading a starter again? Because nobody knows what to do without a Robert Allen or Gustavo Chacin in the rotation?

[Bobthe4th]

Why are we trading a starter again? Because nobody knows what to do without a Robert Allen or Gustavo Chacin in the rotation?

 

More because no one wants to see Smoak playing everyday at 1B, while the outfield is Carrera, Pillar, and Upton.

[Plat]

Keep him as a closer, he's flourishing at that role right now, plus the Jays got a pretty good rotation.

[burlingtonbandit]

Why are we trading a starter again? Because nobody knows what to do without a Robert Allen or Gustavo Chacin in the rotation?

 

Well the argument would be is you address another hole on the team. If the team can trade an Estrada or Happ for a younger starting OF say like Marcell Ozuna you'd have to think pretty hard about it.

[Spanky99]

Well the argument would be is you address another hole on the team. If the team can trade an Estrada or Happ for a younger starting OF say like Marcell Ozuna you'd have to think pretty hard about it.

 

Ozuna... dreaming big?

[Captain Adama]

Ozuna... dreaming big?

 

It would make no sense for Miami to trade a young, controllable player like Ozuna for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

[Spanky99]

It would make no sense for Miami to trade a young, controllable player like Ozuna for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

 

Exactly. BB's a dream weaver!

 

He even said you'd have to think hard about it, when it's a no-brainer!

[L54]

Well the argument would be is you address another hole on the team. If the team can trade an Estrada or Happ for a younger starting OF say like Marcell Ozuna you'd have to think pretty hard about it.

 

If Shapiro trades Estrada for Ozuna I'll buy a Shapiro Blue Jays jersey.

[L54]

More because no one wants to see Smoak playing everyday at 1B, while the outfield is Carrera, Pillar, and Upton.

 

I can promise you even if they don't trade for one, that Justin Smoak will not be the opening day first baseman. People are mistaking adequacy for depth- something the Jays don't have a lot of right now.

[Grant77]

I think that Osuna has all of the tools to be a starter and in a bubble, we'd be awfully foolish not to explore that option.

 

We're not in a bubble though and at least 3 situations have to be addressed in my opinion. One is his reticence to become a starter. We don't need to force him to start, so he would ideally be on board with the idea. Two is opening up a rotation spot for him. I don't like the idea of shifting him back and forth between roles. Lastly, we need to address the bullpen situation if we decide to make him a starter.

[DonnieBaseball]

I'm a bit surprised that people think the ship has sailed. He's 21, and has the most saves for his age. And even after a solid rookie season, he managed to improve from 1.3 WAR to 1.8 WAR with only 4 1/3 more innings. Last year I felt like he had the higher upside between him and Sanchez. Obviously Sanchez is really hitting his full potential.

 

Shapiro led the league with Cleveland in wins/million, and having a young pitcher with 4 more years of control fits that model. Saying we have x guys better in the rotation doesn't really matter. This year was very lucky in terms of not having any starters go down with an injury. It also seems like the Blue Jays acquired Storen with the hopes that he could take over as the closer, and repurpose Osuna to either a longman for 2016. When Storen shat the bed, that changed.

 

It should be interesting to see how Shapiro deals with it. Osuna has said that he wants to close, but it might be a waste of his full potential.

[DonnieBaseball]

I posted this in the Biagini thread but I might as well post it here. Osuna was second on the pitching staff in WPA behind only Sanchez. He's providing tons of value as is. There's really no reason to mess with it.

 

If Mike Trout is providing a ton of value as a leadoff hitter, you wouldn't want to mess with it and try him in the 3 spot? There is a reason to mess with it, if you think it makes the team better. If Osuna gives 1.8 WAR out of the pen, but could be getting 4 WAR as a starter, you're missing out.

[ChrisS]

If Mike Trout is providing a ton of value as a leadoff hitter, you wouldn't want to mess with it and try him in the 3 spot? There is a reason to mess with it, if you think it makes the team better. If Osuna gives 1.8 WAR out of the pen, but could be getting 4 WAR as a starter, you're missing out.

 

Or it could go the other way, wont work out or his arm blows up and he is unable to regain his form after transitioning back to a closer. He doesnt want to be a starter and is doing a damn fine job as a closer so why mess with it? We would also have to go out and get another good relief arm to replace him..

[KingKat]

If Mike Trout is providing a ton of value as a leadoff hitter, you wouldn't want to mess with it and try him in the 3 spot? There is a reason to mess with it, if you think it makes the team better. If Osuna gives 1.8 WAR out of the pen, but could be getting 4 WAR as a starter, you're missing out.

 

You can't compare moving someone in the batting lineup to converting a reliever to starting pitcher. Trout is still Trout no matter where you hit him. Osuna doesn't pitch the same as a starter. He would also be exposed to a different injury risk.

[glory]

If Osuna lasted 100 innings as a starter before his arm exploded, I'd be shocked.

 

Ship has sailed.

[Krylian]

If Osuna lasted 100 innings as a starter before his arm exploded, I'd be shocked.

 

Ship has sailed.

 

Why do we think he'd explode? Because he had TJ once?

[John_Havok]

Why do we think he'd explode? Because he had TJ once?

 

This year's inning total was also the highest of his career, even though he was a starter in the minors. As a starter the most innings he ever threw in a minor league season was 42.1 due to injury.

 

Also keep in mind he's already 2 years into into his 6 years of control, so trying him as a starter would probably take 2-3 seasons just to get him to around 200 innings and by then he's got 1 year left, assuming his helath holds up, which is no guarantee giving his prior surgery and low innings totals for the past 6 seasons.

 

There's too many factors working against him to even bother taking the chance at transitioning him to a starter.

 

Keep him in the pen and let him go until his arm breaks again.

[BTS]

Why do we think he'd explode? Because he had TJ once?

 

Well, his 74 innings this year were a career high, and he's already had TJS, and his shoulder was acting up at the end of the year.

 

If his arm didn't explode, he'd just be ramping up to 190 innings in his last year of team control.

[KingKat]

If Osuna lasted 100 innings as a starter before his arm exploded, I'd be shocked.

 

Ship has sailed.

 

Yeah and more importantly, the value gain from taking that risk just isn't there. I used to be all over that. I thought the Reds were dumb for not starting Chapman. I thought the Jays were really dumb when they moved two of their top starting prospects to the MLB bullpen (Osuna and Castro). Even last off-season, I wanted Storen to take over the closer's job and Osuna to be stretched but I'm pretty much done with that line of thinking. It's all based on the premise that relievers have less value than starters and of course strictly speaking that's true by your standard value metrics but that might be a bit misleading. One of the fundamental characteristics of WAR is that it is context neutral and by being context neutral, it has revolutionized the way baseball players are considered. For ages, context dependent stats like runs, RBIs and pitcher wins were overvalued. WAR has brought balance by acknowledging that the opportunities to pad those context dependent stats are not evenly distributed. That's all fine and sensible but when it comes to relievers, there's an argument to be made that you SHOULDN'T look at context neutral stats because the context in which a reliever operates is deliberately manipulated. Top relievers may not throw as many innings as starters but their inning are distributed in a way that maximizes their impact because they nearly always pitch in high leverage situations. That's how Roberto Osuana had a higher wpa (win probability added) than every Toronto starting pitcher not named Sanchez. By that measure, Osuna is hardly being wasted in the bullpen. In fact, you could argue the opposite that he's having more impact than he would if he were say a number 3 starter or something like that. People might not agree on the degree of risk involved in turning Osuna into a starter. We'll never know for sure unless it's actually tried but I think nearly everyone would acknowledge that there's at least SOME risk to it if for no other reason than his injury history. By turning Osuna into a high leverage reliever, the Jays have insulated themselves from that risk without truly limiting his impact on the game. The more I think about it, the more I believe that the way the Jays are using him now is optimal.

Edited October 21, 2016 by KingKat