Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[L54]

Sign who? Only OFers left are all projected for sub 1 WAR.

 

Run Carrera and Upton for all I care. Not re-signing Edwin at a price point they found fair signals to me they're much more concerned long term. The last thing I want to see is them refuse to give one up for Edwin and then do it to sign Bautista for one year.

[Grant77]

Even with Bautista, this team isnt as good as Boston or Cleveland. You're basically saying you'd rather have a bleak one year shot and bottom out the next 5 years rather than today begin building a team structured for long term success. Makes sense, dynasty's are boring

 

You make it sound like singing an elite hitter for one season will somehow prevent us from being good in the future. We arguably have a top 10 farm system and are by no means desperate for a single pick.

[LGBJ29]

You make it sound like singing an elite hitter for one season will somehow prevent us from being good in the future. We arguably have a top 10 farm system and are by no means desperate for a single pick.

 

Our farm system is hardly top 20, and can't hold the shoes of the NYY and BOS systems. We're not desperate for a single pick but it is a very valuable one, and if we're gonna compete in the future we're gonna need some more elite prospects.

[GD]

Wonder if they'd want Devo

[Krylian]

You make it sound like singing an elite hitter for one season will somehow prevent us from being good in the future. We arguably have a top 10 farm system and are by no means desperate for a single pick.

 

There is no argument to be made for the Jays having a Top 10 system.

[over500]

If you're going to lose the pick might as well make sure you get an option or two. If not just take the pick at this point and sign somebody else.

 

Not interested in Jose on a one year deal at all. Would rather accelerate the prospect cultivation.

What kind of options are you thinking? Assuming 17-18m range, isn't QO after 1 year contract already pretty much a team option?

[P2F]

What kind of options are you thinking? Assuming 17-18m range, isn't QO after 1 year contract already pretty much a team option?

The draft pick compensation is being dissolved after this off-season.

[over500]

The draft pick compensation is being dissolved after this off-season.

right

[burlingtonbandit]

You could trade Bautista at the deadline and get a better prospect than a comp pick. I think people are overvaluing the draft pick at this point. You don't sign Morales and Pearce for $45 Million if you aren't planning to win.

[John_Havok]

The draft pick compensation is being dissolved after this off-season.

 

That is not correct, it's just changing.

[P2F]

That is not correct, it's just changing.

Yes, you're right. Bautista wouldn't net us compensation any longer though.

[John_Havok]

Yes, you're right. Bautista wouldn't net us compensation any longer though.

 

Pretty sure he would but it just may not be a 1st rounder.

 

A Former Club of a Free Agent subject to draft pick compensation will receive the following:

 

A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall receive a selection immediately following the first round of the draft if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.

 

Clubs that break the Luxury Tax threshold shall receive a draft selection immediately following the fourth round of the next Rule 4 Draft.

 

All other former clubs shall receive a selection immediately following the Competitive Balance Round B of the next Rule 4 Draft (which follows the second round).

[Bobthe4th]

Even with Bautista, this team isnt as good as Boston or Cleveland. You're basically saying you'd rather have a bleak one year shot and bottom out the next 5 years rather than today begin building a team structured for long term success. Makes sense, dynasty's are boring

 

We already have a comp pick from EE, and IMO you're putting too much emphasis on a second one.

 

Using baseball reference for picks since 1996 (i.e. the last 20 years) in the 31 to 40 range (where comp picks usually occur), only 20 players have amassed over 5 career bWAR. That's roughly 10% (could rise by a couple of percent when some of the picks in the last few drafts make the majors).

 

The best pick was number 38, had 6 includes Thor, David Wright, Gio Gonzalez:

 

Pick 38 history

 

So being generous you can put a 15% chance on a supplemental pick contributing anything significant (not even taking in to account the possibility that they don't even sign) and even when they do, the chances of them being all star level is obv even less.

 

An extra comp pick is very unlikely to have any significant effect on establishing a "dynasty" in 2022.

 

Signing Jose Bautista makes our team significantly better in 2017 compared to the alternatives - i.e. signing a free agent from the limited remaining pool, or trading assets for a good OF.

[Bobthe4th]

I don't see any reason to write off 2017 before it's even started.

 

With luck we can still make the playoffs, a solid rotation, Donaldson, Osuna, Tulo, Travis, Martin, Pillar's defence is a good foundation.

 

And if it all goes wrong and we are terrible - we have lots of assets to sell, which would get much higher returns than a pick in the 31-40 range of the draft.

[Krylian]

I don't see any reason to write off 2017 before it's even started.

 

With luck we can still make the playoffs, a solid rotation, Donaldson, Osuna, Tulo, Travis, Martin, Pillar's defence is a good foundation.

 

And if it all goes wrong and we are terrible - we have lots of assets to sell, which would get much higher returns than a pick in the 31-40 range of the draft.

 

With luck, any team can make the playoffs.

[Bobthe4th]

With luck, any team can make the playoffs.

 

Exactly.

 

We've a chance to improve the team in 2017, while only giving up (the chance) of a 2nd comp pick.

 

That's a price worth paying IMO compared to the alternatives.

[Grant77]

There is no argument to be made for the Jays having a Top 10 system.

 

I think you'll be very surprised when organization rankings start coming out. I'm not saying it is top 10, but we're right in that mix. I did say since the start of the season though that we're in the top half and l'm certain that is still correct.

 

I'm curious if you have the time, name 10-12 systems that you think are clearly better. I can't do it.

[Angrioter]

Even with Bautista, this team isnt as good as Boston or Cleveland. You're basically saying you'd rather have a bleak one year shot and bottom out the next 5 years rather than today begin building a team structured for long term success. Makes sense, dynasty's are boring

 

Royals won a WS 2 years ago.

[Krylian]

Exactly.

 

We've a chance to improve the team in 2017, while only giving up (the chance) of a 2nd comp pick.

 

That's a price worth paying IMO compared to the alternatives.

 

But I think the point is that we'd rather not have to rely on that much luck to make the playoffs. Building a roster where you know you have a high chance of your players performing at a high level is what we all want. Not...'well...this guy has generally sucked or is injured half the time, but hey...this year might be different.'

[Jimcanuck]

But I think the point is that we'd rather not have to rely on that much luck to make the playoffs.

 

Jays from 1995 until 2015

[LGBJ29]

But I think the point is that we'd rather not have to rely on that much luck to make the playoffs. Building a roster where you know you have a high chance of your players performing at a high level is what we all want. Not...'well...this guy has generally sucked or is injured half the time, but hey...this year might be different.'

 

exactly, we could start a rebuild/retool and do it right by accumulating high picks and prospects and have a chance to be a perennial contender a few years from now. Or we can take a one year shot in the dark where everything must exactly break our way for us to contend. Its the perfect time to unload guys like Donaldson, Tulo and Martin. Their value is only going to decrease the longer we wait

[saskjayfan]

exactly, we could start a rebuild/retool and do it right by accumulating high picks and prospects and have a chance to be a perennial contender a few years from now. Or we can take a one year shot in the dark where everything must exactly break our way for us to contend. Its the perfect time to unload guys like Donaldson, Tulo and Martin. Their value is only going to decrease the longer we wait

 

You do realize we are in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox? The Red Sox have a lot of young talent. They aren't going anywhere. The Yankees sold last offseason and have acquired some prospects and have some young talent. In four years we could have five or six really talented young players, but if the Yankees have four cheap talented players and drop the hammer in free agency and outspend us by 80 mil we will be further away then we are now. Rebuild draft and develop saw us miss the playoffs for 20 years until we got it right.

 

We have josh Donaldson who right there for best player in the al. We have a really strong number four and 5 starters. There's upside in sanchez and stroman. If we get bats we absolutely can compete with Boston.

[Boxcar]

I think you'll be very surprised when organization rankings start coming out. I'm not saying it is top 10, but we're right in that mix. I did say since the start of the season though that we're in the top half and l'm certain that is still correct.

 

I'm curious if you have the time, name 10-12 systems that you think are clearly better. I can't do it.

 

There's decent depth in the system but the issue is there are no impact guys on the horizon. I'd rather have a Seager/Suxton/Lindor + piles of crap than what we have currently.

[John_Havok]

Am I crazy or is Greg Holland the most efficient way to add wins right now? They're saying no one will pay 2/$22M for him so what is he going to get? 2/$18M?

 

The guy was absolutely lights out, Andrew Miller level for like 4 years. Is TJ really that big of a deal? We're supposed to have all this high performance training stuff. We can rebuild him. He's on track to start 2017 anyways.

 

He was pitching hurt in 2015 and still had a 3.27 FIP........ what am I missing here.

 

Relievers fall of a cliff pretty much without warning, so the fact that he's had tye arm problem, coupled with a poor showcase in November where he didn't hit anything higher than the low 90's, and sat in the high 80s....means he's not likely going to see anything past 1 year, and probably incentive laden type of deal.

[spittin]

This team still sucks pretty much the same since the off-season started, Merry Christmas jays fans!

[LGBJ29]

You do realize we are in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox? The Red Sox have a lot of young talent. They aren't going anywhere. The Yankees sold last offseason and have acquired some prospects and have some young talent. In four years we could have five or six really talented young players, but if the Yankees have four cheap talented players and drop the hammer in free agency and outspend us by 80 mil we will be further away then we are now. Rebuild draft and develop saw us miss the playoffs for 20 years until we got it right.

 

We have josh Donaldson who right there for best player in the al. We have a really strong number four and 5 starters. There's upside in sanchez and stroman. If we get bats we absolutely can compete with Boston.

 

oh really? s*** I had no idea. Who else is in our division?

 

So let me see if I'm understanding you correctly. Because the Yankees and Red Sox have strong farm systems, we'll have no chance for the next decade or two. So while we're above average right now, lets load up and take one last shot at it?

[saskjayfan]

oh really? s*** I had no idea. Who else is in our division?

 

So let me see if I'm understanding you correctly. Because the Yankees and Red Sox have strong farm systems, we'll have no chance for the next decade or two. So while we're above average right now, lets load up and take one last shot at it?

 

We could also live in la la land and give up on this year and assume our comp pick will be better than the Bryce harpers of the world our vials will be signing in a few years.

 

We have an MVP candidate making 17 mil, and a Cy young candidate making league min, and the Yankees are not great. I'm sure conditions to win will be better in rather future for sure.

[Grant77]

There's decent depth in the system but the issue is there are no impact guys on the horizon. I'd rather have a Seager/Suxton/Lindor + piles of crap than what we have currently.

 

Prospects are so volatile in baseball that there's definitely merit to having a lot of depth. It's a lot different than hockey or basketball in that way. We see unknown guys jump to top 10 prospect status in a single year and we see guys like Alford and Urena develop into stars every once in a while.

 

I think we'll get at least a couple of quality regulars and a high end starter from this current top 10-15 prospects, which is more that what most teams can say.

[jaysfan2014]

oh really? s*** I had no idea. Who else is in our division?

 

So let me see if I'm understanding you correctly. Because the Yankees and Red Sox have strong farm systems, we'll have no chance for the next decade or two. So while we're above average right now, lets load up and take one last shot at it?

 

Red Sox HAD a good farm system--unfortunately, Dombrowski destroyed it in multiple trades. All that's left is Devers and Groome and not much else (Benintendi I won't count since he's already in the majors). If the trades backfire if Sale or Kimbrel blow their elbows(good risk of that), the Sox could be in trouble. They basically boxed themselves into a 3-year window at best before the roster gets so expensive, the Sox will have difficulty keeping a competitive team together under the tax.

 

They potentially lose after 2018:

Price(opt-out),

HanRam (if his expensive option isn't picked up)

Kimbrel (they could lose him next offseason if he gets injured and the Sox decline his $13M option)

Pomeranz

Chris Sale (if he blows his elbow out, which I expect will happen based on recent history with the Sox--why do you think Chicago was willing to let him go?)

Porcello after 2019

 

Not to mention Bogaerts and Betts will likely take up a quarter of the payroll by 2019 (Betts is likely getting Trout money) And due to trades and poor development, they have very little on the farm in starting pitching.

 

As for the Yankees, no guarantees. It's dependant on Torres, Frazier, Mateo, Judge, etc.'s development. Just because they have a strong system doesn't mean they'll pan out--after all, until Sanchez, the last homegrown elite Yankees prospect was Robinson Cano..

[jaysfan2014]

Out of all the farm system in the AL East, here's how I rank them based on MLB's prospect rankings:

 

1. Yankees

2. Rays

3. Blue Jays

4. Red Sox (only Benintendi keeps them from being last because Dombrowski blew up the farm in the Sale/Thornburg/Pomeranz/Kimbrel trades).

5. Orioles