Liriano or Stroman

[RealAccountant]

Orioles hangout celebrating the decision and making fun of Gibby calling Stroman the perfect guy

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/154994-Stroganoff-starts

[Spanky99]

4 starts is incredibly small. I'm surprised to hear you say otherwise actually.

 

You're surprised ju1ced said something stupid, lol.

[EdwinsParrot]

seems like there wasnt much debate, it was always gonna be stro for gibby

[Grant77]

4 starts is incredibly small. I'm surprised to hear you say otherwise actually.

 

The fact that they are so familiar with Stroman makes me nervous. Liriano dominated them so soundly last time out, I think in part because they had never seen him.

[Terminator]

Baltimore clearly should be a worse team against lefties, but shouldn't be as big splits as they were this year. Can't trust that Trumbo going to keep running a .600 OPS against lefties. This way you know that Kim will be facing a lefty late in the game, so force their hand.

 

Why should they clearly be worse against lefties? Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, Hardy all bat right-handed. Do Kim, Davis and Michael Bourn actually make up the difference and turn it in to a team that's better against righties? I don't know if I buy that. I know this season they were better against righties but I don't think that's an accurate indication moving forward.

[Governator]

Why should they clearly be worse against lefties? Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, Hardy all bat right-handed. Do Kim, Davis and Michael Bourn actually make up the difference and turn it in to a team that's better against righties? I don't know if I buy that. I know this season they were better against righties but I don't think that's an accurate indication moving forward.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=80&type=1&season=2016&month=13&season1=2016&ind=0&team=2&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Angrioter]

Makes sense, Liriano will be the key lefty out of the pen.

Yeah, after O's scored 5 runs against Stroman.

[RealAccountant]

Why should they clearly be worse against lefties? Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, Hardy all bat right-handed. Do Kim, Davis and Michael Bourn actually make up the difference and turn it in to a team that's better against righties? I don't know if I buy that. I know this season they were better against righties but I don't think that's an accurate indication moving forward.

 

Kim's OBP drops by Half against LHP, Davis's power becomes non existent. Adam Jones has always had reverse splits career wise, he is WRC is 20 points worse against LHP.

 

Seems to me if you can make significant impact on a teams 3 out of top 5 hitters you do it. Stupid not to.

[RealAccountant]

Yeah, after O's scored 5 runs against Stroman.

 

Yep, get ready for the stroshow getting upset in the dug out after they destroy him.

 

But hey at least we will lose the right way,

[Terminator]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=80&type=1&season=2016&month=13&season1=2016&ind=0&team=2&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

As I said I don't really buy in to unregressed splits.

 

Stroman for two times through the lineup then to Liriano is what I would do and I really hope that Shatkins has drilled it through Gibby's brain that this is what he needs to do.

[vdubmvp]

I'm pretty sure I was going to be nervous regardless of who was chosen. But really, my nerves are probably more about how inconsistent the offence has been. Obviously if Stroman looks terrible Gibbons will have a quicker hook than usual, but if our offence does nothing at all it doesn't really matter much who is starting for us. Ugh I'm like 2015-Trouba at this point.

[UWHabs]

Why should they clearly be worse against lefties? Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, Hardy all bat right-handed. Do Kim, Davis and Michael Bourn actually make up the difference and turn it in to a team that's better against righties? I don't know if I buy that. I know this season they were better against righties but I don't think that's an accurate indication moving forward.

 

Jones has historically had reverse splits, and he's got enough of a history that I think they'd be statistically significant. Davis obviously with big splits for his career. Kim basically never played against lefties this year. So basically 3 of their 5 best players likely to be decently worse against lefties. Machado as a righty should fare better, yeah, and Trumbo historically has done better against lefties, although this year had the huge reverse splits.

 

So yeah, they're not as skewed as a team like LA who runs like 6 or 7 lefties in their lineup, but given equal talents, I'd choose the lefty to go against them. Thing in this game is that Stro is a much better talent than Liriano.

[Spanky99]

I'm pretty sure I was going to be nervous regardless of who was chosen. But really, my nerves are probably more about how inconsistent the offence has been. Obviously if Stroman looks terrible Gibbons will have a quicker hook than usual, but if our offence does nothing at all it doesn't really matter much who is starting for us. Ugh I'm like 2015-Trouba at this point.

 

Never, go there...

[Daniel Labude]

I think starting Stroman is the smart decision. Liriano and Estrada can come in if needed out of the pen where they have more recent experience. Also, this might be a good way to fire up the offense early. If Stroman comes out with his normal fire it could fire up an already hyped up crowd and maybe spark some life into the offense that looks like the Walking Dead.

[Sammy225]

Never, go there...

 

At least at our viewing party Stroman Pitching gives me a good reason to get good and drunk.

[Omar]

As I said I don't really buy in to unregressed splits.

 

Stroman for two times through the lineup then to Liriano is what I would do and I really hope that Shatkins has drilled it through Gibby's brain that this is what he needs to do.

 

Atkins isnt a miracle worker.

[admin]

4 starts is incredibly small. I'm surprised to hear you say otherwise actually.

 

I wouldn't say four starts in ONE season is incredibly small. They've seen the guy four times. That's quite a bit to know what to expect. I mean they've hit him pretty good the past few times. Add the fact O's aren't good vs lefties, I don't see how you not go with Liriano.

 

I'm hoping the Jays are trolling the O's and come gameday Liriano starts

[The Cats Ass]

Why should they clearly be worse against lefties? Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, Hardy all bat right-handed. Do Kim, Davis and Michael Bourn actually make up the difference and turn it in to a team that's better against righties? I don't know if I buy that. I know this season they were better against righties but I don't think that's an accurate indication moving forward.

 

Why should they clearly be better against lefties? Just because they bat right handed doesn't mean they hit lefties better... Jones, Machado and Schoop all hit RHP better than LHP for their career.

[Laika]

As I said I don't really buy in to unregressed splits.

 

Someone smarter than me will have to chime on but on the Team level, platoon splits might be stable at this point.

 

It's not as simple as - the player's individual splits are unregressed and not stable so therefore the team level split is not stable.

[Omar]

Happy to face Tillman though.

[BigCecil]

I think starting Stroman is the smart decision. Liriano and Estrada can come in if needed out of the pen where they have more recent experience. Also, this might be a good way to fire up the offense early. If Stroman comes out with his normal fire it could fire up an already hyped up crowd and maybe spark some life into the offense that looks like the Walking Dead.

 

He should be ok. I cant help but think back to his playoff starts against TEX and Desheild's hammering balls off the wall to start the games, and our board saying "well, that's not exactly the start(s) we wanted".

[Spanky99]

Everyone finished yet, with their excuses... just f***ing win, man!!!

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

 

WILD CARD WINNERS BRING IT O'S!!!!

[CHRIS]

And this is where Stroman's brilliant long con of "pitching to contact" is going to bear fruit.

 

The Orioles won't know what him them (or rather, what struck them out).

[Terminator]

Why should they clearly be better against lefties? Just because they bat right handed doesn't mean they hit lefties better... Jones, Machado and Schoop all hit RHP better than LHP.

 

I don't think they should clearly be better. But decades of analysis sets forth that right-handers don't hit right-handed pitching as well and everyone who keeps throwing unregressed splits at me isn't going to convince me otherwise.

 

But on top of it neither Stroman or Liriano should see the lineup three times no matter who started so I seriously hope that Shatkins has drilled it through Gibbons brain that it's going to be two times throw the lineup max for Stroman before moving on to Liriano.

[The Cats Ass]

I don't think they should clearly be better. But decades of analysis sets forth that right-handers don't hit right-handed pitching as well and everyone who keeps throwing unregressed splits at me isn't going to convince me otherwise.

 

But on top of it neither Stroman or Liriano should see the lineup three times no matter who started so I seriously hope that Shatkins has drilled it through Gibbons brain that it's going to be two times throw the lineup max for Stroman before moving on to Liriano.

 

The stats for their WHOLE CAREER says they hit RHP better. How is that unregressed?

[Daniel Labude]

He should be ok. I cant help but think back to his playoff starts against TEX and Desheild's hammering balls off the wall to start the games, and our board saying "well, that's not exactly the start we wanted".

 

I think Stroman will suprise some eith how he comes out of the gates this playoffs. He has the experiwnce now and hopwfully he learned. We should know aftwr a few batters how he is pitching though. Id love to have Sanchez going but at least we got home field this time. Maybe the stress of knowing they should make the playoffs got to them this month and they come out on fire because that pressure is gone.

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

Orioles Career vs Stroman:

 

 

Trumbo 5-11 (.455)

Kim 3-7 (.429)

Jones 6-15 (.400)

Wieters 5-14 (.357), 2 HR

Davis 4-13 (.308)

 

 

TERRIBLE idea to start Stroman. He better be on a very short leash.

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

Some better news

 

 

Chris Tillman career at Rogers Centre: 7.01 ERA, 20 HR in 68 IP (2.65 HR/9 IP).

[Terminator]

Someone smarter than me will have to chime on but on the Team level, platoon splits might be stable at this point.

 

It's not as simple as - the player's individual splits are unregressed and not stable so therefore the team level split is not stable.

 

And why is that? If 75 to 100 unregressed ABs vs lefties is worthless for an individual player, then why is 75 to 100 unregressed unregressed ABs for 9 players each and then added together somehow useful?

 

And I agree, someone smarter than me could blow this whole thing up as I don't know this for certain. But I remember posting about reverse splits a year or two ago and someone called me out on it and really opened my eyes up to how splits work.

[Terminator]

The stats for their WHOLE CAREER says they hit RHP better. How is that unregressed?

 

Because Schoop has 379 career AB's vs. lefties. That's not a lot of information. Machado has 669. That's not a ton of information either. Jones has more but there is still a lot of statistical noise within splits and if they remain unregressed they can be misleading.