GDT: Blue Jays vs Indians 3/3

[Governator]

Jay's strike out numbers are horrible. Looks like the pitching coach is not doing his job. Even Gibby agrees that swinging for the fences is not the way to go. Games like these are winnable if only there were more patience at the plate form all including Donaldson and Saunders.

 

JD has a better than average K% and one of the few on the team that'll go with the pitch with 2 strikes... he's been in a slump lately.

[LGBJ29]

JD has a better than average K% and one of the few on the team that'll go with the pitch with 2 strikes... he's been in a slump lately.

 

He drove in a run with 2 strikes, with a short swing to take the ball the other way. Agree he shouldn't be included here

[Stangstag]

Jay's strike out numbers are horrible. Looks like the pitching coach is not doing his job. Even Gibby agrees that swinging for the fences is not the way to go. Games like these are winnable if only there were more patience at the plate form all including Donaldson and Saunders.

 

There were like 5 called strikeouts yesterday. So... no, you're wrong

[Captain Adama]

Walks are as good as singles.

 

Lol no.

[KingKat]

Lol no.

 

I don't have the numbers handy but IIRC the context neutral difference in WPA between a walk and a single is fairly small.

[Captain Adama]

I don't have the numbers handy but IIRC the context neutral difference in WPA between a walk and a single is fairly small.

 

Not quite, if you want to average out all possible scenarios when a hitter comes to the plate the WPA added by a walk is 0.0264 compared to 0.0421 to a single, so in total, a walk is 63% as useful as a single, which isn't that insignificant. Of course, context matters, if bases are empty, there's almost no difference (errors aside.)

 

Here are the numbers:

[RealAccountant]

I guess the importance of playing good D is lost on this forum. Cecil has a decent 3.49 xFIP, but we continue to blame him for all of our other issues. I give up.

 

Xfip 6.82 in high leverage situations

[FrozenRopes]

Xfip 6.82 in high leverage situations

 

Yikes. I would have brought Loup in.

[jays4life19]

Yikes. I would have brought Loup in.

 

He's pitched 5.2 HL innings and has a .455 BABIP. Cecil has been fine....just not the elite RP we have been use to over the last few years

[HERPDERP]

Last year it was Loup who s*** the bed, but had awesome peripherals. This year it is Cecil. We got some bad luck.

[glory]

So Cecil getting hit harder, giving up more line drives, fewer ground balls, and so on, is going to be ignored?

 

He looked great prior to this season but he's been ass in 2016. Look deeper than FIP.

[intentional wok]

Not quite, if you want to average out all possible scenarios when a hitter comes to the plate the WPA added by a walk is 0.0264 compared to 0.0421 to a single, so in total, a walk is 63% as useful as a single, which isn't that insignificant. Of course, context matters, if bases are empty, there's almost no difference (errors aside.)

 

Here are the numbers:

 

I think this is one of the few times when the eyeball test is obvious. I mean I appreciate the number crunching, but anyone who states "a walk is as good as a single" is out of his mind. The Jays walk a ton but I'd trade in a good portion of those for singles that get the runners actually moving (which, before the Blue Jays Suck howlers come out, isn't a knock against the Jays).

[jays4life19]

So Cecil getting hit harder, giving up more line drives, fewer ground balls, and so on, is going to be ignored?

 

He looked great prior to this season but he's been ass in 2016. Look deeper than FIP.

 

I assume you mean his xFIP since his FIP is pretty bad due to the 20% HR/FB rate. The stuff is still there, he still misses bats at a good rate while limiting walks. He should be better going forward.

[Governator]

So Cecil getting hit harder, giving up more line drives, fewer ground balls, and so on, is going to be ignored?

 

He looked great prior to this season but he's been ass in 2016. Look deeper than FIP.

 

 

You don't really need to look past his FIP, he's been awful. At the very least he shouldn't be used against RHP anymore.

[LGBJ29]

I assume you mean his xFIP since his FIP is pretty bad due to the 20% HR/FB rate. The stuff is still there, he still misses bats at a good rate while limiting walks. He should be better going forward.

 

agreed. But as Gov said he's gotta be used strictly against lefties moving forward

[baseballsss]

I assume you mean his xFIP since his FIP is pretty bad due to the 20% HR/FB rate. The stuff is still there, he still misses bats at a good rate while limiting walks. He should be better going forward.

 

I swear I've been hearing this all season...

[intentional wok]

I assume you mean his xFIP since his FIP is pretty bad due to the 20% HR/FB rate. The stuff is still there, he still misses bats at a good rate while limiting walks. He should be better going forward.

 

Is there not better data on Cecil's pitches on a pitch-by-pitch basis? The stats suggest the stuff is still there, but do the results not also suggest more lapses in stuff than before? It's possible hitters are just more aggressive on the same rate of lapses than previous years, but is there not something to the observations being made that his breaking stuff isn't getting over as sharply as before? Can we really just assume all Cecil pitches are created equally and he's just having bad luck rather than struggling with his control more often than usual? Then again, we only have 26 innings to look at -- but I also don't think that's necessarily a reason to think he should be genuinely better over the next 38 games.

 

Or, someone who spends more time with stats tell me why I'm wrong.

Edited August 22, 2016 by intentional wok

[jays4life19]

agreed. But as Gov said he's gotta be used strictly against lefties moving forward

 

Maybe in high leverage spots. Cecil is not strictly a LOOGY though. It's a small sample size but so far in 2016:

Cecil vs Lefty pitching: 7.94 K/9 1.59 BB/9 3.32 FIP 3.81 xFIP (11.1 IP)

Cecil vs Righty pitching: 10.80 K/9 3.00 BB/9 5.21 FIP 3.32 xFIP (15 IP)

[GD]

Not quite, if you want to average out all possible scenarios when a hitter comes to the plate the WPA added by a walk is 0.0264 compared to 0.0421 to a single, so in total, a walk is 63% as useful as a single, which isn't that insignificant. Of course, context matters, if bases are empty, there's almost no difference (errors aside.)

 

Here are the numbers:

 

Sure, a single can move runners and it can also turn into an extra base.

[Captain Adama]

Sure, a single can move runners and it can also turn into an extra base.

 

Exactly, the stats basically quantifying what your eyes and common sense will say.

[G-Snarls]

Hate this off day

 

Bah

[fatcowxlive]

I think this is one of the few times when the eyeball test is obvious. I mean I appreciate the number crunching, but anyone who states "a walk is as good as a single" is out of his mind. The Jays walk a ton but I'd trade in a good portion of those for singles that get the runners actually moving (which, before the Blue Jays Suck howlers come out, isn't a knock against the Jays).

 

Walk is as good as a single (maybe) with nobody on as a RESULT.

 

I'd rather take the action of a base hit more because when a ball is in play it can cause errors or mishaps on the field.

 

Completely agree here

[Cyborg]

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[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2016[/TD]

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]3.148[/TD]

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http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

[HERPDERP]

hate this off day

 

bah

 

todays an off day?!!!

 

you just ruined my mood

[G-Snarls]

todays an off day?!!!

 

you just ruined my mood

 

LOL. Yeah sorry.

[BigCecil]

Hate this off day

 

Bah

 

It's good. One less day we play without Pillar and Jose in the line up.

[G-Snarls]

It's good. One less day we play without Pillar and Jose in the line up.

 

Ooo, good perspective.

[rancher]

Walk is as good as a single (maybe) with nobody on as a RESULT.

 

I'd rather take the action of a base hit more because when a ball is in play it can cause errors or mishaps on the field.

 

Completely agree here

 

Perhaps I should have qualified my statement in my original post by adding "and better than an out"

[43211234]

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[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]w2B[/TH]

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2016[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].318[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1.209[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].690[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].720[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].878[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1.240[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1.567[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.011[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].200[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]-.410[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].118[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]9.785[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]3.148[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

 

Why are HBPs better than walks? Is it because HBPs are usually an accident and you clip crappy hitters about as often as good hitters, whereas good hitters tend to walk more and crappy hitters less?