Can a Jay win the Cy Young this year?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Cliff Lee won in 2008 with a pretty comparable year to Happ.

 

Happ is the real deal. If he was K'ing one more guy per 9 innings everyone would be losing their minds over him. He deserves to be in the convo.

[burlingtonbandit]

Hmmmm, this made me look them up to compare

 

Miller has better K and BB rates

 

What is Britton doing to keep his ERA and FIP so low??? Because both are lower than Miller's

 

He has almost an 80% GB rate which is unheard of.

[fatcowxlive]

Happ might win it if we win the divison because:

 

Top 5 in ERA

Most wins

Division winners of AL East

 

Man that's a deadly mix for the old farts voting for CY Young

[Governator]

Happ might win it if we win the divison because:

 

Top 5 in ERA

Most wins

Division winners of AL East

 

Man that's a deadly mix for the old farts voting for CY Young

 

True, though I don't expect Happ to finish with the most wins or even a Top 5 ERA.

 

I also think winning a division has little effect on CY Young award compared to say MVP. There's been more emphasis on WAR throughout the media these days than people are willing to admit and as the years go on I think we should expect that to show in voting. Happ is 21st in fWAR... I'm sure many will notice. I could see Sale & Kluber both getting more votes than Happ.

[43211234]

Zach Britton has a 19.1 SwStr% and an 80 GB%

 

Best reliever in baseball imo.

[THANOS]

Happ's K/9 may actually climb over 9 by year's end as well given the way it's trending.

[G-Snarls]

Happ's K/9 may actually climb over 9 by year's end as well given the way it's trending.

 

Over 10 is super sexy

[Jimcanuck]

20 wins is still the magic threshold for the voters

[BlueRocky]

20 wins is still the magic threshold for the voters

 

Very possible for Happ.

Granted the Jays win the division, which likely implies the offense continues to produce.

There's 47 games left, even with the 6 man rotation he will start 7 or 8 times.

 

Winning 4 of those will put him at 20.

Optimistically, he would finish with 22 wins.

 

He might play 9 or 10 games if they go back to a 5 man rotation

[Jonn]

CY Happ

[gbill2004]

CY Happ

Wow.

[FrozenRopes]

Happy with 20 wins could win. Sanchez would likely need 17 and same numbers. My vote would be for Britton if I had to choose today.

[John_Havok]

If Happ wins 20, I think he's a lock but if he doesn't, Britton will win it. Britton's season is probably the best by a reliever ever atm (Not that I think wins should really matter but that's how they vote sometimes)

 

ERIC GAGNE'S 2003 says hi

[Krylian]

ERIC GAGNE'S 2003 says hi

 

Eckersley in 1990 was pretty great too.

 

But I'm still a fan of Mark Eichhorn's in 1986. (7.4 WAR)

[KingKat]

Wasn't it established like 2-3 years ago that xFIP was actually worse than FIP?

 

I have a hard time assuming every pitcher allows the same % of HR per fly ball.

 

That's a fair assumption but whatever xFIP is doing to adjust for that doesn't seems to be working and instead seems to be steering people even further from the truth. I'll see if I can dig up the article I'm thinking of. It was very interesting and I'm surprised it didn't gain more traction.

 

O.K. I can't find the article dismissing xFIP. I think it might have just been a passing comment by Tango or something. I did dig up this really fascinating article about pitching metrics: http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/

 

It's way more complex and thorough than I remembered but it's a really fascinating read. I wonder how the work he suggests at the end has progressed. I could see someone like North doing a really good job following up on this. He seems to have a kind of mental focus that I really wish I had.

[CJ-Freeway]

Last reliever to win a Cy Young was Eric Gagne in 2003 and he posted a 4.7 WAR. Britton won't even reach that this season.

 

🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

[GD]

I should know this. Does xFIP include IFFB?

[Captain Adama]

I should know this. Does xFIP include IFFB?

 

I don't believe so, I think IFFB still fall under FB.

[GD]

I don't believe so, I think IFFB still fall under FB.

 

I mean like.

 

xFIP regresses HR to 12.5%(FB). Are they also regressing IFFB under that branch? They shouldn't be, obviously. But I remember MLC, when it still updated, specified "HR/OFFB" or something.

 

Oi it's too early

[reedjohnsonfan]

I mean like.

 

xFIP regresses HR to 12.5%(FB). Are they also regressing IFFB under that branch? They shouldn't be, obviously. But I remember MLC, when it still updated, specified "HR/OFFB" or something.

 

Oi it's too early

 

I thought it was 10.5%. Can someone please confirm?

[Captain Adama]

I thought it was 10.5%. Can someone please confirm?

 

No it's 12.5% HR/FB

[KingKat]

There's an internet baseball feud between BP people and first gen saber types about FIP/xFIP and how it's used. Comes down to Fangraphs holding back the industry by not improving WAR vs. BP's stats being difficult to contextualize and interpret. BP has proceeded to release updates to the DRA system based on those suggestions, community feedback and new data.

 

The problem people here have is understanding that FIP is just a tool that describes a pitcher's DIPS outcomes. xFIP deviates by shifting the goal to talent estimation. Their usefulness doesn't depend on the full spectrum of goals. Neither is "worse" in the abstract.

 

This isn't all that relevant to your post but I really feel like Fangraphs and BP should undergo some kind of merger. Fangraphs has a snazzy looking site with a workable interface but they could use a better, deeper pool of writers. BP on the other hand is a good content mill but they are unable or unwilling to upgrade a very dated looking interface. They would have to come to terms on some of the statistical divides but I think it would potentially be beneficial to all involved and the stats community in general.

[Captain Adama]

I mean like.

 

xFIP regresses HR to 12.5%(FB). Are they also regressing IFFB under that branch? They shouldn't be, obviously. But I remember MLC, when it still updated, specified "HR/OFFB" or something.

 

Oi it's too early

 

Yeah so I just checked, IFFB don't fall under FB category, I know what you meant, it would make XFIP really flawed if they penalized a player for inducing lots of IFFB. So essentI ally you're right in that the formula is essentially HR/OFFB.

[BTS]

This isn't all that relevant to your post but I really feel like Fangraphs and BP should undergo some kind of merger. Fangraphs has a snazzy looking site with a workable interface but they could use a better, deeper pool of writers. BP on the other hand is a good content mill but they are unable or unwilling to upgrade a very dated looking interface. They would have to come to terms on some of the statistical divides but I think it would potentially be beneficial to all involved and the stats community in general.

 

As long as Bret Sayre is a redundancy I'm fully on board.

[GD]

Yeah so I just checked, IFFB don't fall under FB category, I know what you meant, it would make XFIP really flawed if they penalized a player for inducing lots of IFFB. So essentI ally you're right in that the formula is essentially HR/OFFB.

 

Good. Thanks.

 

I use IFFB% as an extremely lazy proxy for launch angle. So guys that have a higher one I tend to discount their xFIP a bit because they likely shouldn't *QUITE* be regressed to league avg. ie:

 

 

But really, it's dumn. SIERA is a great stat, it's just a pain in the ass to calculate. Just set up a custom dashboard on fangraphs and have it displayed. It usually falls in the middle between ERA and xFIP in cases like this. I mostly look at SIERA and SwStr.

[BTS]

I doubt that anyone here looks at one number. I assume most open up a player page and mentally assign weights to various different numbers to get a feel for how a given pitcher is performing. Gut feel, vetrin presents, years of experience and all that. Scout dat fangraphs page.

[GD]

http://www.pitcherlist.com/

 

The writing isn't great but a nice resource, if not a bit anecdotal, for analyzing pitchers. Like a more visual leaning Brooks. If I wanna see a certain pitch (Estrada change?) to see why it's beating xFIP or something then it's a good site.

 

And then Brooks is another good one. Pure data lol

[Dick_Pole]

f*** all these advanced stat nerds trying not to be homers and take away from Happ's 2016. He leads the league in wins with 16 in 23 starts which means he's kept the team in games, puts up respectable stats in every other category and has been killing it lately.

 

Also this whole poll is flawed because Verlander isn't on it. You'd think a past winner who is leading the league in IP and K is going to get some serious consideration too.

[KingKat]

f*** all these advanced stat nerds trying not to be homers and take away from Happ's 2016.

 

I don't think it really takes anything away from Happ to not want to give him the Cy. If anything there's tremendous enthusiam about Happ and the Happ signing all across this board. This seems Gruber level thin skinned but maybe you're trying to be funny and I'm missing the humour?

[Dick_Pole]

I don't think it really takes anything away from Happ to not want to give him the Cy. If anything there's tremendous enthusiam about Happ and the Happ signing all across this board. This seems Gruber level thin skinned but maybe you're trying to be funny and I'm missing the humour?

 

I wouldn't call it humour but it shouldn't be taken 100% seriously.