Should we extend Dickey?

[Dr. Dinger]

Hear me out. I know we all hate watching him pitch, I know he's boring as f*** in interviews, I know we resent him because we traded Syndergaard to get him, and I know we all hate having Josh Thole on the roster.

 

But over the last calendar year, here are Dickey's numbers:

 

216 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.43 K/BB, 9.4% SwStr

 

Granted, the FIP and xFIP paint a less flattering picture (4.41/4.55), but the same is true of Estrada and we all love him regardless. Objectively, Dickey's been an adequate, mid-rotation innings eater. It might actually make sense to extend Dickey for one year (plus an option, perhaps) for something in the vicinity of $8-10M, and given his situation, I think he'd probably be open to it. When you consider how sparse the free agent market for SP is this coming off-season, I think there's an argument to be made to bring him back for another year.

[Stangstag]

No. End the Dickey saga. Time for the team to get younger.

[BTS]

What you suggest makes perfect baseball sense.

 

But,

 

I watch baseball for fun. I watch more Jays games than any other team. I hate watching Dickey, and I hate watching Thole. I hope he finishes his career in San Diego and is never seen on my TV again.

[Dr. Dinger]

No. End the Dickey saga. Time for the team to get younger.

 

Average age is meaningless, I would prefer to have our team be competitive next year.

[Dr. Dinger]

What you suggest makes perfect baseball sense.

 

But,

 

I watch baseball for fun. I watch more Jays games than any other team. I hate watching Dickey, and I hate watching Thole. I hope he finishes his career in San Diego and is never seen on my TV again.

 

I have to say that I really, really, realllllly hate watching Dickey pitch. And when I have tickets to a game and find out that Dickey is getting the start, it's pretty depressing. But objectively, I think he could be a useful and cost-effective piece next year. He definitely will not be tendered a qualifying offer, so I don't want to hear anybody talk about "taking the draft pick and moving on."

[Virgil_Hiltz]

I suspect the Dickey haters would be less so if Thole wasn't part of the "Dickey Package".

If Dickey is back maybe it's time to really consider trying AJ Jimenez in the back-up role after this season

[Statman]

Improving on a 4.5 xFIP and Josh Thole should be a fairly easy task.

 

I say no.

[AdamGreenwood]

Seems like a no-brainer.

 

It's nice to have a pitcher in our rotation that gives something completely different to hitters.

He's usually good for 1 to 1.5 WAR, gets better as the season goes along, and eats a lot of innings. And I think he actually contributes more than his WAR indicates.

Seems to be pretty much injury-free.

His ERA consistently outperforms his FIP and xFIP.

Can probably get him 2/$17 million or so, which is dirt cheap for a guy with his results, who gets 200 IP every season. Buehrle cost us twice that,.

ERA has been under 4 every year he's been here except one. Which is good for AL East.

[z3r0s]

If he comes at that kind of dollar figure its pretty much a no brainer for me. As frustrating as he is to watch (with the exception of games where he's really on), he's a lock to be mostly healthy (aka no TJ), lock to get his innings in, shouldn't embarrass himself. I actually think the best aspect is giving opposing teams a really different look on the mound. Has anyone done a recent look on the knuckleball effect to see if its still looking like it's true?

[Dr. Dinger]

Improving on a 4.5 xFIP and Josh Thole should be a fairly easy task.

 

I say no.

 

It's easy to find a pitcher who can give you a 4.5 xFIP, but the 200 innings are actually hard to replace. I won't get into the discrepancy between ERA/xFIP for knuckleballers, but it's been discussed and I think that difference is worth considering also, as well as the knuckleball effect for the subsequent SP in the rotation.

[Grant77]

Hear me out. I know we all hate watching him pitch, I know he's boring as f*** in interviews, I know we resent him because we traded Syndergaard to get him, and I know we all hate having Josh Thole on the roster.

 

But over the last calendar year, here are Dickey's numbers:

 

216 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.43 K/BB, 9.4% SwStr

 

Granted, the FIP and xFIP paint a less flattering picture (4.41/4.55), but the same is true of Estrada and we all love him regardless. Objectively, Dickey's been an adequate, mid-rotation innings eater. It might actually make sense to extend Dickey for one year (plus an option, perhaps) for something in the vicinity of $8-10M, and given his situation, I think he'd probably be open to it. When you consider how sparse the free agent market for SP is this coming off-season, I think there's an argument to be made to bring him back for another year.

 

I would absolutely extend him. He's been over 2 RA9 WAR for his entire Jays career and that's not including the Dickey effect. We need him and if we go the FA route, we will pay more for a worse starter. I have no doubts about that.

[Dr. Dinger]

Seems like a no-brainer.

 

It's nice to have a pitcher in our rotation that gives something completely different to hitters.

He's usually good for 1 to 1.5 WAR, gets better as the season goes along, and eats a lot of innings. And I think he actually contributes more than his WAR indicates.

Seems to be pretty much injury-free.

His ERA consistently outperforms his FIP and xFIP.

Can probably get him 2/$17 million or so, which is dirt cheap for a guy with his results, who gets 200 IP every season. Buehrle cost us twice that,.

ERA has been under 4 every year he's been here except one. Which is good for AL East.

 

Agreed on all points. It's not always pretty, but the end of season ERA does matter, especially when we're talking about an 800 IP sample. At some point you have to consider it more than his xFIP. He's a unique player and can't be evaluated in standard ways.

[Brownie19]

It's not a bad idea if he'd take $8-10M a year.

 

What about this approach...

 

Qualify him. If he declines and signs elsewhere, you net the pick and move on with life. If he accepts, you pay him more than he's worth (although you've assumed his value is $8-10M...the higher it is, the less the overpay is) - but it's only on a 1 year deal and you wanted him back anyway. Worth the risk?

 

I know we all doubt he'd decline a QO, but when you look at his #'s over the past calendar year, the weak FA market and at all the stupid GM's in baseball - it might be worth the risk.

[intentional wok]

I suspect the Dickey haters would be less so if Thole wasn't part of the "Dickey Package".

If Dickey is back maybe it's time to really consider trying AJ Jimenez in the back-up role after this season

 

I'm one of the people who hates watching Dickey pitch, but Thole's uselessness is so limited that it really doesn't factor in. If Dickey can provide value that supercedes any of Thole's small failings, then that's fine. If Dickey can add good production to the team overall then he should absolutely be brought back if no other moves are cooking. Watching a Dickey start is absolutely anti-fun, but if the team is winning I will be having more fun. So if he genuinely helps the team more than he hurts it, then yes, bring him back.

[KingKat]

I suspect the Dickey haters would be less so if Thole wasn't part of the "Dickey Package".

If Dickey is back maybe it's time to really consider trying AJ Jimenez in the back-up role after this season

 

As bad a Thole is, Jimenez is not realistically speaking an upgrade. I'm open to giving the job to someone else but giving it to Jimenez isn't worth the hassle.

[z3r0s]

get him on the Tim Wakefield perpetual option

[Grant77]

Why don't people like watching Dickey pitch? I like having the opportunity to see a unique pitch every 5 days. He's also a very good athlete, not even for his age.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's not a bad idea if he'd take $8-10M a year.

 

What about this approach...

 

Qualify him. If he declines and signs elsewhere, you net the pick and move on with life. If he accepts, you pay him more than he's worth (although you've assumed his value is $8-10M...the higher it is, the less the overpay is) - but it's only on a 1 year deal and you wanted him back anyway. Worth the risk?

 

I know we all doubt he'd decline a QO, but when you look at his #'s over the past calendar year, the weak FA market and at all the stupid GM's in baseball - it might be worth the risk.

 

Eh, I really wouldn't be comfortable paying him $14M+ on a one year deal, which is what the QO amounts to. No team is going to top that AAV anyway, I think it's too risky and the value isn't there at that price point.

[burlingtonbandit]

If he signs for 10 Million, sure why not. It fills a hole for cheap and lets you spend more on the offence where we need to extend/replace EE/JB/Saunders.

[Krylian]

Watching Dickey pitch doesn't make me happy.

 

Move on.

[Dr. Dinger]

Why don't people like watching Dickey pitch? I like having the opportunity to see a unique pitch every 5 days. He's also a very good athlete, not even for his age.

 

He gives up a lot of home runs and doesn't strike a ton of guys out, so I surmise that the bad starts are just much more memorable than the good ones, plus it's very easy to hate him when we contrast it with Syndergaard's emergence as a legitimate ace. With our offence, a pitcher who gives us 7 IP and gives up 3 ER is probably going to get the job done more often than not.

[Grant77]

He gives up a lot of home runs and doesn't strike a ton of guys out, so I surmise that the bad starts are just much more memorable than the good ones, plus it's very easy to hate him when we contrast it with Syndergaard's emergence as a legitimate ace. With our offence, a pitcher who gives us 7 IP and gives up 3 ER is probably going to get the job done more often than not.

 

I have no shortage of irrational hatred for players, but the Syndergaard thing doesn't bother me. It's not really his fault. The home runs are certainly bothersome, but your point about quality starts evens that out for me.

[Brownie19]

Eh, I really wouldn't be comfortable paying him $14M+ on a one year deal, which is what the QO amounts to. No team is going to top that AAV anyway, I think it's too risky and the value isn't there at that price point.

 

They won't top that AAV, but some team might give him 2 years $25M with an option or something. Just a thought that the risk of paying him an extra $4-5M (a number we're all guessing at) might be worth the chance you land a comp pick.

[Statman]

I have no shortage of irrational hatred for players, but the Syndergaard thing doesn't bother me. It's not really his fault. The home runs are certainly bothersome, but your point about quality starts evens that out for me.

 

Syndergaard doesn't bother me either with Dickey. The unpredictability of the kuckleball bothers me, his inability to pitch better from the 5th inning on bothers me, his BB/9 bothers me, his HR/9 bothers me. His secondary pitch/fastball is hot garbage. Him and Josh Thole packaged together bothers me.

 

IMO he is not worth 10 million and two roster spots.

[Krylian]

I have no shortage of irrational hatred for players, but the Syndergaard thing doesn't bother me. It's not really his fault. The home runs are certainly bothersome, but your point about quality starts evens that out for me.

 

The thing with Dickey is that he's gonna be 42 going into next season. The end is getting near...and I'd rather him not completely fall apart here. I'd rather give up on a guy a year too soon than a year too late.

[flafson]

We can always just replace him with a Scott Diamond type of player...

We're not likely to find better for less money unless we get lucky with someone who is expected to be bad.

[Statman]

The thing with Dickey is that he's gonna be 42 going into next season. The end is getting near...and I'd rather him not completely fall apart here. I'd rather give up on a guy a year too soon than a year too late.

 

Yeah. Dickey's best option is to find a team with a big ball park in the NL.

[Krylian]

We can always just replace him with a Scott Diamond type of player...

We're not likely to find better for less money unless we get lucky with someone who is expected to be bad.

 

Happ was a good signing for a very reasonable contract. Estrada signed for a very reasonable deal.

 

There are good pitchers to be had every off-season that don't require a bank breaking.

[Grant77]

The thing with Dickey is that he's gonna be 42 going into next season. The end is getting near...and I'd rather him not completely fall apart here. I'd rather give up on a guy a year too soon than a year too late.

 

How much does age mean when there are no downward trends in his underlying statistics or velocity? I don't have any concerns about his durability to be honest.

[flafson]

Happ was a good signing for a very reasonable contract. Estrada signed for a very reasonable deal.

 

There are good pitchers to be had every off-season that don't require a bank breaking.

 

Both Happ and Estrada already knew about Toronto, in both cases there was a good reason to give them a chance.

I'm sure there are other good pitchers that would want to come to Toronto for similar figures but it's not that common.