Can Russell Martin come close to providing value at his contract?

[GD]

When framing stabilizes is a moot point now (it's definitely not 5 games btw).

 

Okay. But like.

 

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[BTS]

Okay. But like.

 

 

[h=3]¯\_(ツ)_/¯[/h]

 

Wow das crazy

[Statman]

Russel Martin went into tonight's game with -0.4 WAR and ended the night with 4 strikeouts.

[Jimcanuck]

is he on the sauce again

[glory]

I hope it's not too much to ask for him to have one more good season so that he's at least partially tradeable. I liked signing him initially, and he was good last season, but damn if his decline is starting already, then cut bait and run as fast as possible. With the backloaded deal that will be difficult unless he turns things around in 2016.

[G-Snarls]

Not every player has to produce to his contract every year. We desperately needed a quality catcher and we got one. By overpaying for the last 2 years on his deal. It's just how free agency works. And it's not crazy long term.

[Stangstag]

Not every player has to produce to his contract every year. We desperately needed a quality catcher and we got one. By overpaying for the last 2 years on his deal. It's just how free agency works. And it's not crazy long term.

 

Funny how all the casuals want to re-sign Bautista and Edwin for 5 years each, when we could potentially already be seeing the effects of aging with Tulo and Martin.

[Maahfaace]

He went through a similar start last year and he had a great season. the strikeouts are alarming, but he's got plenty of time to turn it around if healthy

[_Nox_]

Put this together:

 

Catcher offense by age (10 year sample, should have used a larger sample, mind you):

 

Age PA wRC+

25 5369 95.1

26 6328 88.9

27 5336 92.1

28 5336 92.1

29 5141 93.3

30 5567 90.1

31 4874 85.2

32 3751 79.6

33 2321 79.6

34 2441 84.4

35 2548 88.4

36 1829 74.4

37 1272 81.3

38 873 83.6

 

You've almost certainly done this incorrectly, at least in the nature of the way you are asserting its' importance (how catcher offense ages).

 

I'm guessing this is near the top of the list of things that went wrong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

 

But really, lets just think about things for a second. Is there any logical reason for us to expect a 35 year old catcher to hit better than a 32 year old catcher? Not that I can think of.

 

MGL's classic post here is where one should start when doing anything like this. http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

[burlingtonbandit]

He went through a similar start last year and he had a great season. the strikeouts are alarming, but he's got plenty of time to turn it around if healthy

 

He was really good in April last year. Hopefully he turns it around soon though because its been hard to watch him at the plate.

[Maahfaace]

He was really good in April last year. Hopefully he turns it around soon though because its been hard to watch him at the plate.

 

Ummmm he was like 1 for his first 30 in the first 3 weeks last year, I remember people freaking out on this board. His walk rate was solid but he was not "really good" in the first 3 weeks last year. He recovered and had a monster May (145 wrc+) and all was forgotten pretty quickly.

[Statman]

Funny how all the casuals want to re-sign Bautista and Edwin for 5 years each, when we could potentially already be seeing the effects of aging with Tulo and Martin.

 

Gross.

[BigCecil]

Ummmm he was like 1 for his first 30 in the first 3 weeks last year, I remember people freaking out on this board. His walk rate was solid but he was not "really good" in the first 3 weeks last year. He recovered and had a monster May (145 wrc+) and all was forgotten pretty quickly.

 

Absolutely true. I don't remember him being quite this bad though, and his D never seemed to suffer 2015. I'd love to see a bit more consistency. Hopefully he can bounce back and get hot. We desperately need him to.

[Statman]

Martin with a -0.5 WAR after last nights game and now tied with Goins with the worst WAR on the team.

[xposbrad]

The Jays had a hole at catcher and he was the best catcher available, they were also in win now mode so they needed to overpay. The problem is, Martin is 33 and declining and the Jays don't seem intent on raising payroll to fix other problems. Does anyone think we'd even be able to trade him without eating 1/3 of his remaining salary? If our catcher was making 10m and we never took on Dickey, we'd actually have been able to sign a pitcher like JZimm this past year (4-0 already). If the Jays had a 175m payroll, Martin making 20m isn't a problem, but that's not the case.

[KingKat]

Does anyone think we'd even be able to trade him without eating 1/3 of his remaining salary?

 

Signing a free agent literally means paying him more than anyone else would. That's the game and some of the people who call for the Jays to play that game aggressively will be the first to complain when it starts becoming obvious that no one else would pay the player the same money even though that's the whole reason the player is here in the first place.

 

Anyhooo... Martin is pretty low on my list of short term concerns for the Jays. I don't think anything is wrong with him offensively. Just looks like a garden variety slump to me. A lot of his best PAs have led to poor outcomes which is bound to happen from time to time.

[Governator]

Martin with a -0.5 WAR after last nights game and now tied with Goins with the worst WAR on the team.

 

No offense, but you're becoming a big ball of negativity by stat staring 3-4 weeks in to a season.

[HERPDERP]

Maybe it is time for the old guys (especially Martin/Tulo) to switch to a lighter bat

[GD]

Maybe it is time for the old guys (especially Martin/Tulo) to switch to a lighter bat

 

Wow what an original and intuitive idea you didn't lift from a Fangraphs community article

[puphood]

Absolutely true. I don't remember him being quite this bad though, and his D never seemed to suffer 2015. I'd love to see a bit more consistency. Hopefully he can bounce back and get hot. We desperately need him to.

He wasn't this bad and the rest of the year when averaged out he was average. I would take average now never mind Monster.......

[HERPDERP]

Wow what an original and intuitive idea you didn't lift from a Fangraphs community article

 

it's common sense even without that community article. Tulo is whiffing at an insane rate against fastballs. Anytime you can't catch up to the fastball you can either choose to cheat, shorten you swing path, or go the easy way - go for a lighter bat

[burlingtonbandit]

it's common sense even without that community article. Tulo is whiffing at an insane rate against fastballs. Anytime you can't catch up to the fastball you can either choose to cheat, shorten you swing path, or go the easy way - go for a lighter bat

 

I bet if that FG article never came out you would never have suggested him switching to a lighter bat.

[Boxcar]

it's common sense even without that community article. Tulo is whiffing at an insane rate against fastballs. Anytime you can't catch up to the fastball you can either choose to cheat, shorten you swing path, or go the easy way - go for a lighter bat

 

So common that you couldn't think of it on your own.

[Dr. Dinger]

Wtf, could have sworn I IL'ed herpderp

[HERPDERP]

So common that you couldn't think of it on your own.

 

rolls eye*

 

common sense for anyone who watches the game

 

Other small things hitters can do that can change things up

-move closer to the plate

-move closer to the pitcher

-choke up on the bat

-remove leg kick

[HERPDERP]

Wtf, could have sworn I IL'ed herpderp

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/creeper.gif

[burlingtonbandit]

rolls eye*

 

common sense for anyone who watches the game

 

Other small things hitters can do that can change things up

-move closer to the plate

-move closer to the pitcher

-choke up on the bat

-remove leg kick

 

What do you suggest Martin does then?

[Dr. Dinger]

K but Tulo is like a BABIP correction away from .280/.400/.450, so

[West Texas Forever]

Besides the big three in the lineup everyone has looked like s*** early on, too many strikeouts. Let's hope this is just one of those slow start April's and we can move past this.

[Dr. Dinger]

Besides the big three in the lineup everyone has looked like s*** early on, too many strikeouts. Let's hope this is just one of those slow start April's and we can move past this.

 

Has Saunders looked like s***? No. Donaldson and JB are right where you expect them to be, EE is fine but a bit lower than normal in power (his power comes in streaks anyway), and Saunders is mashing. Tulo's BABIP is .200 but his power is fine and he's walking at 14%. The only guy who really looks lost that we could reasonably expect to be good is Martin.