Current AL East Futures

[Filmstudy]

Hi folks. New to the board and like the high level of Sabrmetric discussion.

 

I got the following set of available futures wagers from Oddschecker:

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner

 

To Summarize the best available price for each team to win the AL East (4/13, slightly after midnight EST):

 

Bos: 2.15 (Implied win probability = 1/3.15 = 31.7%)

Tor: 2.35 (IWP = 29.9%)

NY: 3.8 (IWP = 20.8%)

Bal: 10 (IWP = 9.1%)

TB: 12 (IWP = 7.7%)

 

This aggregate line has an implied vig of -0.8%, which means there is actually arbitrage available now (and it won't last). It is extremely unusual to see this sort of low-vig aggregate line early in the season for any sport. Just yesterday, the sum of the IWPs was over 1.08.

 

However, my question is this...which of these prices do you like best?

 

You can see I'm from Baltimore, but I liked the O's a lot better yesterday at 10.5-1 now it's not as clear and I kinda like the price on the Jays at 2.35 to 1, up from 2-1 yesterday.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Filmstudy

[Laika]

I like Toronto and Tampa

[RealAccountant]

April means nothing. The team that starts on top rarely finishes there. I've learned this from watching baseball religiously over 20 years.

 

I can count a hand full of occasions where the early starters finished the season well. Winning teams tend to get into stride around July

[pickoff22]

It's hard to argue that there's not value in Baltimore at those odds. Sure, they are longshots for a reason, but for a team that is sitting at 7-0 those are good odds. I'll never be able to bring myself to bet on them, but if you bet with only your head and not your heart then it's a decent bet.

[RealAccountant]

27-14

[Governator]

April means nothing. The team that starts on top rarely finishes there. I've learned this from watching baseball religiously over 20 years.

 

I can count a hand full of occasions where the early starters finished the season well. Winning teams tend to get into stride around July

 

 

uhmm... Aside from the Blue Jays & Texas Rangers, the Postseason was entirely decided by April 30th last year.

 

 

Standings as of April 30th, 2015

 

AL East:

1. NY Yankees (won wildcard)

5. Toronto Blue Jays (Division Winner)

 

AL Central:

1. KC Royals (Division Winner, WS Champions)

 

AL West:

1. Houston Astros (won wildcard)

5. Texas Rangers (Division Winner)

 

NL East

1. NY Mets (Division Winner)

 

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (Division Winner)

2. Chicago Cubs (won wildcard)

3. Pitts Pirates (won wildcard)

 

NL West

1. LA Dodgers (Division Winner)

[Belliss101]

uhmm... Aside from the Blue Jays & Texas Rangers, the Postseason was entirely decided by April 30th last year.

 

 

Standings as of April 30th, 2015

 

AL East:

1. NY Yankees (won wildcard)

5. Toronto Blue Jays (Division Winner)

 

AL Central:

1. KC Royals (Division Winner, WS Champions)

 

AL West:

1. Houston Astros (won wildcard)

5. Texas Rangers (Division Winner)

 

NL East

1. NY Mets (Division Winner)

 

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (Division Winner)

2. Chicago Cubs (won wildcard)

3. Pitts Pirates (won wildcard)

 

NL West

1. LA Dodgers (Division Winner)

 

Man I've missed a lot of baseball then. I wasn't aware it was already April 30th!

[RealAccountant]

Last year was maybe not that good of a example

[Governator]

Man I've missed a lot of baseball then. I wasn't aware it was already April 30th!

 

He said April means nothing and those who have strong starts rarely finish the season well. I'm pointing out that's just not true...

[CultofShatkins]

Great spot Governator. Checked last 3 years as well:

 

Teams in playoff position as of April 30 2014: NYY, OAK, DET, TEX, KCR and MIL, ATL, SFG, NYM, WSH. Of these 4/5 made it from the AL and 2/5 from NL so 60% success rate.

 

Teams in playoff position as of April 30 2013: BOS, TEX, BAL, NYY, DET and ATL, COL, STL, PIT, SFG. Of these 2/5 made it from the AL and 3/5 from NL so 50% success rate.

 

Teams in playoff position as of April 30 2012: TEX, TB, BAL, NYY, CLE and LAD, WSH, STL, ATL, NYM. Of these 3/5 made it from the AL and 3/5 from NL so 60% success rate.

 

Edit: I should also point out that the last 3 world series champions (2013-2015) were in playoff positions as of April 30 as well.

[Terminator]

I had the Jays winning with the Sox finishing a close second. Going to stick with that until at least the end of the month.