A Note on Sanchez's Start Tonight

[GD]

With the first start of the year for probably the most polarizing guy on the team, can I just reinforce that no one here is rooting for Sanchez to fail? I realize that a good deal of posters here, myself included, are fairly skeptical about the guy, but I think I can speak for everyone (not Tercet) when I say that even though some of us aren't expecting anything, we'd love nothing more than for Sanchez to succeed.

 

Hope he has a great start. thxgojays

[BTS]

Odds that this start crashes the forums?

[Laika]

Yes. I hope that he has a massive and completely unexpected skill change, which nobody had any rational reason to expect, and turns into a good starter. I sincerely hope that this happens.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yes. I hope that he has a massive and completely unexpected skill change, which nobody had any rational reason to expect, and turns into a good starter. I sincerely hope that this happens.

 

Almost like players can't improve...

[Boxcar]

Almost like players can't improve...

 

Not too good at the thinking thing, are ya?

[Angrioter]

6 IP, 2 competitive walks, 3 K' (Called K)

[Sorrow]

I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Adding that much mass might actually let his mechanics, timing and such line up better.

[Governator]

No one is rooting for Sanchez to fail, but I'd like to know what a successful line looks like relative to Stro's.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yes. I hope that he has a massive and completely unexpected skill change, which nobody had any rational reason to expect, and turns into a good starter. I sincerely hope that this happens.

 

I don't think improved command constitutes a massive and unexpected skill change. His skills are his 98 MPH sinker and plus curve ball, which he's been unable to command much or turn into the viable K pitch that it looks like it should be. He has the skills, he lacks the refinement. Even a moderate improvement in his command could make him a very valuable asset. You can't teach his heat but you can reasonably expect a young pitcher's command to have a chance to improve. He'll never be an elite K/BB guy, but he doesn't have to be if he can get to 60% GB.

[HERPDERP]

I don't think he's changed much. Hitters are more aggressive than usual in Spring Training. Walks will still be there, but slightly competitive in his own words.

[Frenchsoup]

Not too good at the thinking thing, are ya?

 

Ez Birdy.

[Jonn]

Good thread for people to save face incase he pitches well as a starter.

[Laika]

He had 100 IP in AA and AAA which is way lower than what you'd normally give to a pitching prospect drafted out of high school. He was obviously rushed to the majors. If he manages to develop into a #4 or #5 SP it would not be that unexpected.

 

I mean obviously if you just look at his FIP like a monkey, without any context or critical thinking, you'd be surprised if he became useful.

 

Or you could just, you know, look at his entire minor league track record and watch him pitch at any point before 2016 and realize that he's a one trick relief pony.

 

Pull the foam finger out of your ass and at least try not to be a homer, ok?

[G-Snarls]

I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Adding that much mass might actually let his mechanics, timing and such line up better.

 

His command and ability to throw strikes seemed legitimately improved in ST. Hopefully that was for real.

[G-Snarls]

I'm super pumped for this game I'll say that

[nmrch]

Almost like players can't improve...

 

Sanchez when he starts is one of the worst in baseball, so yes he can improve but so can every other failed starter or position players who don't make it, that's not really saying much. NJH is simply right in that the optimists are seeing what they want to see with Sanchez

 

I do agree with the premise of the thread, i do hope Sanchez discovered something and makes us "haters" look silly.

[Laika]

I don't think improved command constitutes a massive and unexpected skill change. His skills are his 98 MPH sinker and plus curve ball, which he's been unable to command much or turn into the viable K pitch that it looks like it should be. He has the skills, he lacks the refinement. Even a moderate improvement in his command could make him a very valuable asset. You can't teach his heat but you can reasonably expect a young pitcher's command to have a chance to improve. He'll never be an elite K/BB guy, but he doesn't have to be if he can get to 60% GB.

 

But he doesn't just need marginal improvements in command and pitchability to be a good SP, he needs very large command improvements and very significant improvements to his offspeed repertoire. What he needs lies somewhere in between expected growth and a quantum leap forward, but it's probably closer to the latter. Disagreement and discussion on the exact level of improvement needed, and the appropriate wording with which to describe said improvement, is futile.

 

See my above post about foam fingers up butts and feel free to apply it to yourself thusly.

[nmrch]

I don't think improved command constitutes a massive and unexpected skill change. His skills are his 98 MPH sinker and plus curve ball, which he's been unable to command much or turn into the viable K pitch that it looks like it should be. He has the skills, he lacks the refinement. Even a moderate improvement in his command could make him a very valuable asset. You can't teach his heat but you can reasonably expect a young pitcher's command to have a chance to improve. He'll never be an elite K/BB guy, but he doesn't have to be if he can get to 60% GB.

 

on the margins maybe you can't go from a guy with literally no command to a guy with average command, that is not what usually happens.

[Captain Adama]

I don't think improved command constitutes a massive and unexpected skill change. His skills are his 98 MPH sinker and plus curve ball, which he's been unable to command much or turn into the viable K pitch that it looks like it should be. He has the skills, he lacks the refinement. Even a moderate improvement in his command could make him a very valuable asset. You can't teach his heat but you can reasonably expect a young pitcher's command to have a chance to improve. He'll never be an elite K/BB guy, but he doesn't have to be if he can get to 60% GB.

 

Sanchez would need to develop a third pitch as well as improved command to be a valuable asset IMO. He could become an elite reliever if he could fine the plate, but I remain skeptical of his ability to start if he can't find a good offspeed pitch that he can control.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I hope everyone watches Sanchez's start carefully to see if his control is there or not. Even a start where his line looks good might not be very telling since he's facing a weak lineup. On the other hand if he just has one bad inning and looks good otherwise it's still a positive outcome overall.

[Krylian]

No one is rooting for Sanchez to fail, but I'd like to know what a successful line looks like relative to Stro's.

 

I don't think comparing Sanchez to Stro is fair. I don't think it's fair to compare any of our starters to Stro...because most likely they'll pale in comparison. That would be the case with any rotation being compared to their ace.

 

If you view Sanchez as a 3. Compare him to other 3's and see where he lines up. Maybe he's a 4...maybe he's a 5. Hell...maybe he'll be our 2.

 

All I know is the kid has some natural raw ability....and I'm hoping he's able to put it together and help steer this team to the promised land in October.

[Boxcar]

But he doesn't just need marginal improvements in command and pitchability to be a good SP, he needs very large command improvements and very significant improvements to his offspeed repertoire. What he needs lies somewhere in between expected growth and a quantum leap forward, but it's probably closer to the latter. Disagreement and discussion on the exact level of improvement needed, and the appropriate wording with which to describe said improvement, is futile.

 

See my above post about foam fingers up butts and feel free to apply it to yourself thusly.

 

Zero chance Dinger would want to remove that

[Laika]

Another thing that's worth mentioning about Sanchez:

 

One part of the argument for leaving him in the pen is that a lot of us (me and my alternate accounts) think he has high risk mechanics. We don't think he'll hold up as a starting pitcher as well as cleaner arms tend to. Really, we care about the big awkward kid.

 

Even if he has success as a SP, will it be fleeting for tragic reasons? Time will tell. Tune in this season on Blue Jays baseball!

[Laika]

Zero chance Dinger would want to remove that

 

Well I didn't say he couldn't put it back in

[KingKat]

Everything hinges on the changes Sanchez made in the off-season. It's pretty easy to put a lot of weight into something that happened "off camera" so to speak and it's usually not very wise to do so even if small sample size success in spring training provides a bit of confirmation bias. That being said, I'm not as willing to write Sanchez off as I was at this point last season. He has me curious and hedging a little bit. I'm hoping for a successful start. Of course, that one start won't be enough to confirm or infirm anything.

[Laika]

His minor league track record is incomplete as far as I'm concerned. If you want to prognosticate his career from a premature MILB end point then your predictions will naturally be less accurate. That's why to me it wouldn't be an unexpected phenomenon if he improves.

 

His BB/9 improved from AA to AAA. He got it to 4.5 BB/9 in AAA as a 21 year old. There are great major league pitchers who got drafted out of high school and were in that same territory. The problem is Sanchez's MILB career ended there and he went straight to the show. And everyone's "analysis" comes off his limited numbers in the upper minors.

 

His MLB BB/9 is now 3.8 with most of it coming in relief, which makes it easier for him of course. But to go from 5.5 in AA to 2.3 as a reliever would have probably qualified as "unexpected".

 

There are examples just in this organization's history of high school SPs improving greatly. Just look at Chris Carpenter. 4.8 BB/9 at age 21 but he gets 170 IP in AA. Then he gets ANOTHER 120 IP in AAA and it drops to 4 BB/9. Then he gets another 80 in his first year in the bigs until finally in his 2nd MLB year he gets it to 3.1/9 and people start thinking we have something here. Also, with similar K/9 to Sanchez.

 

He needs at least another 100 IP as a starter for me to make any prognostications with any confidence. I'm not really a homer, I just don't think he's been developed properly and therefore you can't make accurate predictions about his future just yet.

 

I understand that his development was interrupted by the impatient and lame-duck GM that AA was in hindsight. I agree that he should have been left to develop longer as a SP - for all of 2014 and probably all or most of 2015.

 

But your first post stated that if he turned into a good SP it wouldn't be unexpected because his development was screwed with. That strikes me as backwards. I think it's pretty simple.

 

1) Most prospects fail

2) Sanchez had really bad MiLB numbers for a SP prospect

3) Sanchez' development as a SP was interrupted by an early call up

 

If anything, him turning into a good SP should me MORE unexpected because of how his development was disjointed. They took a long-shot SP prospect and made the shot longer.

[TheHurl]

Will be interesting to see if the Rays continue this aggressive approach at the plate tonight. If they are very little will be learned about Sanchez, unless of course they are aggressive...and he gets swinging strikes.

[closetjaysfan]

on the margins maybe you can't go from a guy with literally no command to a guy with average command, that is not what usually happens.

 

This is precisely what happened with Chris Carpenter. If Sanchez can develop his command then he will be a nasty starter.... if he cant he is going to be ho-hum

[closetjaysfan]

but I think I can speak for everyone (not Tercet)

 

That made me laugh.

[THANOS]

Will be interesting to see if the Rays continue this aggressive approach at the plate tonight. If they are very little will be learned about Sanchez, unless of course they are aggressive...and he gets swinging strikes.

 

That's what I'm most interested in from him in this start.