General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[Carp12]

 

Brendan Kennedy Verified account

‏@BKennedyStar

Mark Shapiro tells @bruce_arthur & others the Jays are unlikely to be top-5 in payroll, but should be in "next five"

 

 

 

 

Isn't that what they currently are?

[AdamLindsMom]

 

Brendan Kennedy Verified account

‏@BKennedyStar

Mark Shapiro tells @bruce_arthur & others the Jays are unlikely to be top-5 in payroll, but should be in "next five"

 

This is such a crock. These reporters aren't doing their jobs when Shapiro says for reasons he doesn't want to get into. There is no reason the Jays shouldn't be a top 5 team.

[Olerud363]

As I understand it, fangraphs playoff odds are merely an extension of their regular season projections. They would be entirely inaccurate from a historical perspective.

 

You are such an unpleasant truly vile human being...

 

Their projections are good. Far better than you could do. If they predicted 100 series, they would likely beat you. They would get maybe 55 right. You would probably get 50. In any series the advantages are so small, it is, to say it again "a virtual coin flip"

 

That means it takes 10s to hundreds of series for a prediction system to show it's slight advantage.

 

You are true evil. Worse than Trump. You either have no understanding of statistical processes, or you are just a vile human being looking for attention. I am Grant, I am Clever, I am an elitist. I know secret little observations that the common man cannot see, that the statisticians cannot see, it is about me, me, I am clever. ME!!!

 

Grant and Trump two selfish pees in a pod.

[Grant77]

Isn't that what they currently are?

 

We were 17th in payroll at the start of the season. Breaking into the top 10 would require a roughly 14 million dollar increase.

[Olerud363]

You are such an unpleasant truly vile human being...

 

Their projections are good. Far better than you could do. If they predicted 100 series, they would likely beat you. They would get maybe 55 right. You would probably get 50. In any series the advantages are so small, it is, to say it again "a virtual coin flip"

 

That means it takes 10s to hundreds of series for a prediction system to show it's slight advantage.

 

You are true evil. Worse than Trump. You either have no understanding of statistical processes, or you are just a vile human being looking for attention. I am Grant, I am Clever, I am an elitist. I know secret little observations that the common man cannot see, that the statisticians cannot see, it is about me, me, I am clever. ME!!!

 

Grant and Trump two selfish pees in a pod.

 

Here is what Grant thinks, vs. Reality, Hypothetically say we did did for several lifetimes, it would take that long to see the advantages of the projection system... here is what Grant (in his strange little mind) thinks would happen

 

Grant - 727/1000 series correct

luck - 505/1000 series correct

Projection System - 420/1000 series right

 

Here is an example of what would really happen

 

Projection System - 557/1000 series right

Grant - 507/1000 series right

Luck - 498/1000 series right

 

Grant would cherry pick that he at least beat luck, but it's just that even after 1000 series the odds wouldn't quite even out.

[Grant77]

I had no idea that trusting statistically significant trends was evil. I may have to reevaluate my life and stop falling prey to critical thinking. Thanks for the wake up call Olerud.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

We were 17th in payroll at the start of the season. Breaking into the top 10 would require a roughly 14 million dollar increase.

That's true if the other teams doesn't increase their payroll. I'm just not sure how Shapiro can make this statement with any amount of certainty!

But it does sound good that they want to move up the list! (even spending that "14mil", Rogers would still be rolling in a lot more $$$)

[G-Snarls]

Isn't that what they currently are?

 

Started the year #17

 

Now we're #11 after adding Liriano etc

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

[G-Snarls]

This is such a crock. These reporters aren't doing their jobs when Shapiro says for reasons he doesn't want to get into. There is no reason the Jays shouldn't be a top 5 team.

 

They don't NEED to be top 5 payroll

 

Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers will remain the top 4

 

Let them spend >>> 200M and pay luxury tax (and only 2 of them even made the playoffs)

[Grant77]

They don't NEED to be top 5 payroll

 

Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers will remain the top 4

 

Let them spend > 200M and pay luxury tax

 

Absolutely agree.

 

I think we can say with some certainty that payroll will be at least 140 million if Shapiro was willing to throw that statement out there. Our projected payroll for 2017 is about 110 million including arb raises. That should leave us with plenty of wiggle room to address our needs.

[AdamLindsMom]

They don't need to spend Dodger/Yankee dumb but there's no reason they shouldn't be in the 180-200 range especially if it means they can remain competitive and draw big crowds.

[G-Snarls]

Absolutely agree.

 

I think we can say with some certainty that payroll will be at least 140 million if Shapiro was willing to throw that statement out there. Our projected payroll for 2017 is about 110 million including arb raises. That should leave us with plenty of wiggle room to address our needs.

 

Heck yeah

 

We have what will likely project to be a top 5 starting rotation for about 41M

 

Sanchez 0.5M

Stroman 0.5M

Happ 13M

Estrada13M

Liriano 14M

 

That's a GREAT starting point

 

We have good to great cost controlled players in Travis, Pillar and Donaldson

 

The only really big 2017 $ years committed to at the moment are for Martin and Tulo and they're both actually worth it

 

We're not paying a single player big $ to play elsewhere or paying anyone despite them being retired (unlike the Rangers and Yankees)

 

Most of our holes will likely be bullpen and corner OF spots - not nearly as hard to fill as SP, C and MIF

 

We're not in bad shape at all

Edited October 14, 2016 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

They don't need to spend Dodger/Yankee dumb but there's no reason they shouldn't be in the 180-200 range especially if it means they can remain competitive and draw big crowds.

 

Yes for the right players you could go there

 

Luxury tax threshold will be around 190M

[KingKat]

As I understand it, fangraphs playoff odds are merely an extension of their regular season projections. They would be entirely inaccurate from a historical perspective.

 

You are such an unpleasant truly vile human being...

 

Their projections are good. Far better than you could do. If they predicted 100 series, they would likely beat you. They would get maybe 55 right. You would probably get 50. In any series the advantages are so small, it is, to say it again "a virtual coin flip"

 

That means it takes 10s to hundreds of series for a prediction system to show it's slight advantage.

 

You are true evil. Worse than Trump. You either have no understanding of statistical processes, or you are just a vile human being looking for attention. I am Grant, I am Clever, I am an elitist. I know secret little observations that the common man cannot see, that the statisticians cannot see, it is about me, me, I am clever. ME!!!

 

Grant and Trump two selfish pees in a pod.

 

Am I the only one who thinks that of all the things to get really mad at Grant about, this one is a really, really odd choice?

[SweetSmellingChacin]

#6-10 puts you in the 160-180 million range, which is good enough to compete with.

 

But given the attendance and ratings numbers over the last couple years (both at or near the top in MLB), they should be a top 5 payroll, but Rogers is going to Rogers.

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

I know it's been said over and over but...

 

Russel Martin 9 post season appearances in 11 MLB seasons, with 4 different teams

 

Damn...

[Carp12]

Heck yeah

 

We have what will likely project to be a top 5 starting rotation for about 41M

 

Sanchez 0.5M

Stroman 0.5M

Happ 13M

Estrada13M

Liriano 14M

 

That's a GREAT starting point

 

We have good to great cost controlled players in Travis, Pillar and Donaldson

 

The only really big 2017 $ years committed to at the moment are for Martin and Tulo and they're both actually worth it

 

We're not paying a single player big $ to play elsewhere or paying anyone despite them being retired (unlike the Rangers and Yankees)

 

Most of our holes will likely be bullpen and corner OF spots - not nearly as hard to fill as SP, C and MIF

 

We're not in bad shape at all

 

 

Stroman might be a super 2. If so mlbtraderumors projects a salary of 3.5m

[bones10]

Heck yeah

 

We have what will likely project to be a top 5 starting rotation for about 41M

 

Sanchez 0.5M

Stroman 0.5M

Happ 13M

Estrada13M

Liriano 14M

 

That's a GREAT starting point

 

We have good to great cost controlled players in Travis, Pillar and Donaldson

 

The only really big 2017 $ years committed to at the moment are for Martin and Tulo and they're both actually worth it

 

We're not paying a single player big $ to play elsewhere or paying anyone despite them being retired (unlike the Rangers and Yankees)

 

Most of our holes will likely be bullpen and corner OF spots - not nearly as hard to fill as SP, C and MIF

 

We're not in bad shape at all

 

Wait cost wise, how are tulo and martin exactly worth it

[burlingtonbandit]

Wait cost wise, how are tulo and martin exactly worth it

 

Because they're value is worth more than $20 million/year. At least for next year it is.

[burlingtonbandit]

Blue Jays are a top 5 Market in MLB. NYY, BOS, CHC and LAD are the only franchises you could make an argument to be ahead of Toronto. In terms of market size its likely top 3 if not higher.

[Krylian]

I know it's been said over and over but...

 

Russel Martin 9 post season appearances in 11 MLB seasons, with 4 different teams

 

Damn...

 

That's a team stat

[RealAccountant]

I know it's been said over and over but...

 

Russel Martin 9 post season appearances in 11 MLB seasons, with 4 different teams

 

Damn...

 

Martin is prime

[Mittens87]

What other teams are owned by companies like Rogers where the baseball team is just a small part of the company and have stock holders to answer to?

[G-Snarls]

Wait cost wise, how are tulo and martin exactly worth it

 

Each probably project for 2.5-4 WAR

 

That's easily worth 20M plus

 

It's the later years that will more likely be a problem

[Olerud363]

Am I the only one who thinks that of all the things to get really mad at Grant about, this one is a really, really odd choice?

 

Maybe... it's just sooo... typical Grant... Projections are just Big Data AIs, Grant is smarter than big data.

 

One would assume that any observation Grant can make, the fangraphs people can make too, and use it to make their AI better.

 

Or perhaps the AI can beat humans... but not according to Grant.

 

Order of intelligence

 

1. Grant

2. Big data

3. Common people

[Grant77]

What other teams are owned by companies like Rogers where the baseball team is just a small part of the company and have stock holders to answer to?

 

The Nats and Braves are the only other teams owned by corporations, but I think it's safe to say they are different situations.

[G-Snarls]

The Nats and Braves are the only other teams owned by corporations, but I think it's safe to say they are different situations.

 

There are some similarities between Rogers and Turner

[Grant77]

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs would be the first to say that their advanced standings are an interesting tool designed for the regular season. I have serious doubts that he'd recommend using them to predict the playoffs. I'm sure it's something that they would answer in a chat.

[Grant77]

There are some similarities between Rogers and Turner

 

I think more so before Ted Rogers passed, but I see your point.