Blue Jays Finding an Edge in MLB's ABS Challenge Era

Fans used to yell at the TV when an umpire’s call didn’t agree with the strike zone overlay graphic. Now they yell at the hometown batter or catcher when there is a borderline call. “Challenge it!”

The Automated Ball-Strike challenge system has worked out pretty well so far this season. Calls are confirmed or overturned quickly. The system seems to work even more efficiently than the replay system.

Whether ABS can actually give teams a competitive advantage at this point is questionable.

As of mid-August, 16 teams have won 50% or more of their challenges when at bat. Only two teams have below 50% overturns as fielding teams. Those two clubs, the White Sox and Pirates, both sit just a couple of percentage points below the 50% line. The White Sox have also challenged the most when on defence; they have been successful 102 times out of 211.

The top challenging teams are not necessarily the top teams in the standings. On offense, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Astros, and Royals lead the way with 56% challenge success. For the Astros, who have challenged the most of that group (147 times), their batters have been right 82 times.

Mets batters have challenged the most calls so far this season with 156, but only half of those have been successful.

Meanwhile, catchers for the Reds have been the most successful so far this season with a 70% success rate when challenging defensively. The White Sox are the worst defensive, having been successful only 48% of the time. Yet, the White Sox's poor challenges haven’t dampened their results.

Every game, both teams get two challenges. If a challenge is won, a team retains it. If lost, the team loses one of its two challenge opportunities. An additional challenge is awarded to teams (if out of challenges) at the start of extra innings.

Most MLB batters and catchers are pretty good at knowing the strike zone, but even so, you do see the occasional two-inch discrepancy. And yes, pitchers can challenge too. Collectively, they are 54 for 140 (39%). That’s out of more than 8,000 total league-wide challenges this season.

Catchers have had the most success, having overturned 2,499 of 4,263 challenges (59%). Batters collectively have overturned 49% (1,823 of 3,754).

Regardless, every ball player is human. (As far as we know?!)

At the outset of the season, the Jays were planning on leaning on Alejandro Kirk and Davis Schneider more than anyone else on the roster when it came to challenging ball and strike calls. Manager John Schneider openly identified both players as having elite knowledge of the strike zone and expected them to lead the team's decision-making in this new environment.

Davis Schneider also had the benefit of having played in the minors as ABS was being tested, so he was familiar with the system heading into the season. Yet, with his time effectively being split between Buffalo and Toronto this year, most of the challenges have fallen to Kirk.

Schneider sits fourth in the MLB (min. 10 challenges) with a batter success rate of 81.3% (13 of 16). Kirk sits in the top 10 (min. 50 challenges) with a catcher success rate of 63.8% (44 of 69).

So far, the Jays have pretty well stuck to their ABS challenge plan. Overall, it has worked.

Infrequently, they have used their challenges early in games in non-leverage or important situations.

As one of baseball's top defensive catchers and pitch framers, Kirk entered the season with a reputation for understanding the strike zone. The challenge system has largely confirmed that assessment.

While Schneider's contributions have been limited this season, his ABS performance has stood out. Why he hasn’t been able to capitalize on that part of his game, seeing more pitches, is hard to say.

When at bat, an ABS challenge can overturn a strikeout, but that doesn’t automatically result in a positive outcome for that at-bat.

Based on the way the Jays offense has performed this season, it would almost make more sense to only use the challenges to support their pitchers. Success rates across the league are higher for catcher challenges over batter challenges.

League-wide data places the Blue Jays near the middle of the pack in total challenge success rate. They have not embarrassed themselves. They have also not separated themselves as one of baseball's ABS powerhouses.

In 128 games, the Jays have challenged 262 times. That averages out to just over two challenges per game. Those challenges have resulted in 140 calls being overturned (53%). Their batters have challenged 119 with a 52% success rate. Their catchers have a slightly higher 55% success rate on 143 challenges. As a fun fact, the Jays are one of three teams (the Reds and Twins are the others) that have not had a pitcher make a challenge so far this season.

As teams like the Jays gain more experience with ABS, front offices will likely begin evaluating challenge value through leverage indexes, run expectancy and game-state analysis. They can track success rates, monitor challenge quality, compare actual performance to expected performance and identify patterns over time, including what areas of the zone an umpire might favour.

That data will eventually become part of advance scouting reports if it isn’t already. Teams already dedicate significant resources to studying pitcher tendencies, defensive positioning and opposing hitters. ABS trends will certainly become another area of focus.

MLB teams spend enormous resources searching for marginal advantages. ABS challenge optimization is exactly the type of inefficiency smart organizations will start adding a little more focus.

The addition of ABS has meant early retirements of weaker umpires, less arguing, less uncertainty and significantly more transparency. Fans may not always like the outcome, but at least there is a definitive process in place to determine whether a call was correct.

In a season where not that much has gone right, limiting who can challenge and at what point in the game has worked for the Jays.

The challenge system may never become a defining factor in determining division winners or playoff spots. However, over the course of a 162-game season, a handful of overturned strike calls can influence at-bats, innings and ultimately victories. In baseball, where organizations relentlessly pursue even the smallest edge, that is enough reason to take ABS seriously.

In a game of inches, and one where you only have two challenges, challenges (and games themselves) can be won on the fringes.

As the games become more important, the Jays need to maintain their ABS strategy. Trust the captain and avoid emotional challenges with an emphasis on leverage and context.

This is only year one of ABS in the majors, so there is time to learn and adapt. In the meantime, fans can still yell at the TV or the players and ump because it looks so easy on the field.