General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[Laika]

I'll never let it go. At no time did I think, "This is a good move." Or "This it'll be worth it for a playoff run."

An absolute terrible trade from day one and I called it. Guy was 39 or whatever it was at the time. People's defense was that knuckleballers can pitch longer.

 

Remember when the trade was leaking and we thought something like JPA + Nicolino would be fair? hahahaha

 

And then d'Arnaud leaked and we were like f***. And then Syndergaard too and a bunch of people became temporary Rays fans.

 

In context, nobody expected Syndergaard to be this good. I guess ONE of d'Arnaud or him would have been fair kind of.

[mtljaysfan]

Sanchez in the bullpen, amirite?

 

I know it's still early in the season but so far Sanchez has shown us he can be a very good SP.

 

We all knew he's got the tools to be good one, just if and when he can consistently make good use of his tools.

 

I always thought him in the bullpen is a waste of his talent.

 

BTW I'm happily surprised by the good showing of Happ and Estrada.

[Angrioter]

from what I remember back then, his fastball was very straight and had no sink, and his secondary pitches were very mediocre. He has pretty much addressed both those issues

 

He was 19, and now he's 23, that the difference. Noah was meant to be good.

 

2012

Noah: 103 IP - (10.59 K, 2.69 BB, 0.26 HR)/9 = 2.36 FIP

Aaron: 90.1 IP - (9.66 K, 5.08 BB, 0.30 HR)/9 = 3.57 FIP

[Brownie19]

He only started throwing his slider this year. He was good in the minors no doubt but now he looks like a top 3 pitcher in MLB. No one expected that.

 

Let's be honest, right now he looks like he could be one of the best pitchers of all time...

[Angrioter]

I know it's still early in the season but so far Sanchez has shown us he can be a very good SP.

 

We all knew he's got the tools to be good one, just if and when he can consistently make good use of his tools.

 

I always thought him in the bullpen is a waste of his talent.

 

BTW I'm happily surprised by the good showing of Happ and Estrada.

 

1st outing was spectacular, then....

-Poor command

-Limited repertoire

-Unable to miss bats

 

The way Aaron prevents runs isn't sustainable IMO

[burlingtonbandit]

Let's be honest, right now he looks like he could be one of the best pitchers of all time...

 

For sure, but it still is just 3 starts. Also you never want to see it but there's always going to be injury risks for a guy who throws this hard.

[Brownie19]

It was a reasonable trade at that time. Dickey was good for 2-3 years at a late age with the knuckler. He also pitched very well against AL East opponents and had great numbers in Tropicana with the dome. You don't get Cy Youngs by giving up one prospect.

 

A lot of people forget we had very little budget left (something like $5M +/-), so they got the best pitcher they could within their budget constraints. To get a Cy Young winner making $5M a year was a pretty solid coup when you're pushing all your chips in and saying it's time to win now.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html

 

Take a look at the top prospects list in 2012. (If they were in our farm system) we could have traded Julio Teheran and Jesus Montero - the 5th and 6th top prospects in baseball for Dickey and we'd be considering it a "win" right now. Thor could have turned into Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Jacob Turner, Mike Montgomery, Jarrod Parker, etc....all of whom were as sought after as Thor at the time of the trade....and nobody would still be talking about this trade (although it looks like Moore may still turn out to be a stud).

 

There is a considerable amount of luck involved in making trades. No need to continue harping on it (although it sucks donkey cock that Thor isn't in a Jays uni).

[KingKat]

A lot of people forget we had very little budget left (something like $5M +/-), so they got the best pitcher they could within their budget constraints. To get a Cy Young winner making $5M a year was a pretty solid coup when you're pushing all your chips in and saying it's time to win now.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html

 

Take a look at the top prospects list in 2012. (If they were in our farm system) we could have traded Julio Teheran and Jesus Montero - the 5th and 6th top prospects in baseball for Dickey and we'd be considering it a "win" right now. Thor could have turned into Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Jacob Turner, Mike Montgomery, Jarrod Parker, etc....all of whom were as sought after as Thor at the time of the trade....and nobody would still be talking about this trade (although it looks like Moore may still turn out to be a stud).

 

There is a considerable amount of luck involved in making trades. No need to continue harping on it (although it sucks donkey cock that Thor isn't in a Jays uni).

 

Dickey was potentially a cheap ace (as it turns out he was more of an innings eater but there was reason to believe he wouldn't age normally). The rationale for the Dickey trade was solid in context. The problem was the context in the first place. AA's decision to go all in was a huge strategic blunder and Dickey is just one element of that more fundamental mistake. If it had been the right time to go all in, the Dickey trade could have been like the Jeff Kent trade even if Dickey wasn't quite an Ace, he could have been part of a playoff run on a better team. The real issue is going all in with a mediocre team. Why? They weren't coming off a good season. They had too many holes to think they could fill them all in one off season and some of the attempts to plug holes only opened up other ones (that disastrous Cleveland trade).

[admin]

Remember when the trade was leaking and we thought something like JPA + Nicolino would be fair? hahahaha

 

And then d'Arnaud leaked and we were like f***. And then Syndergaard too and a bunch of people became temporary Rays fans.

 

In context, nobody expected Syndergaard to be this good. I guess ONE of d'Arnaud or him would have been fair kind of.

 

Exactly. I even remember BTS trolling the Mets forum when it was rumored JPA for him straight up and Mets had these wild ideas of getting a lot more. Boy did we look stupid.

I didn't think Synd would be this good, but we still gave up two blue chip prospects with the potential to be this good. On top of that there was a very good chance Dickey wouldn't repeat his two amazing years in NY.

 

It was a reasonable trade at that time. Dickey was good for 2-3 years at a late age with the knuckler. He also pitched very well against AL East opponents and had great numbers in Tropicana with the dome. You don't get Cy Youngs by giving up one prospect.

 

It was not a good trade at the time.

 

Pretty good chance Thor isn't the same pitcher today if he didn't get traded to the Mets. I mean his best pitch he just started throwing this year.

 

I think we all knew it was a bad trade and Syndergaard would be a good pitcher but no expected him to be this good.

 

I disagree. But the point was it was a big gamble betting Dickey would keep doing what he was doing at that age. There were too many red flags that AA should have found another trade partner for his two blue chip prospects.

1. He was in his late 30s.

2. He's a knuckleballer, though not a huge red flag.

3. He only had success for a few years. It's not like it was some veteran pitcher with 15 years experience.

[Angrioter]

Morneau: Blue Jays’ Tulowitzki will work his way through slump

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/morneau-blue-jays-tulowitzki-will-work-way-slump/

 

“Sometimes guys are good and you don’t know why they’re good and some guys are good and it seems like they just show up and take 10 swings in the cage and then they go out and play and get three hits. Tulo’s not one of those guys,” Morneau explained on Baseball Central at Noon Tuesday on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. “Tulo’s one of those guys that’s there to outwork everybody. He’s good because of how hard he works and because of how much he cares and wants to be great. So, if he’s going through something you know he’s working hard to get out of it, he’s spending his time in the cage, he’s looking at his video, he’s doing his research on pitchers, he’s doing everything possible to get himself out of it because he wants to win and he wants to do well.”

 

“He’s also a guy that has a track record of doing well and a track record of being successful. You know at some point he’s going to come out of it and he’s going to get hot,” Morneau added. “He has that ability to get hot, especially in that lineup with the protection he has and the guys hitting around him. Once he gets hot it’s going to be fun to watch.”

[Brownie19]

 

 

 

I disagree. But the point was it was a big gamble betting Dickey would keep doing what he was doing at that age. There were too many red flags that AA should have found another trade partner for his two blue chip prospects.

1. He was in his late 30s.

2. He's a knuckleballer, though not a huge red flag.

3. He only had success for a few years. It's not like it was some veteran pitcher with 15 years experience.

 

I think you're underestimating the potential skill changes you saw in Dickey in 2012. His SwStr% jumped from 8 to 12% which sent his K/9 wayyy up to 8+ and I thought reason for the change was he'd learned how to throw his knuckle harder than ever before (and he did max out at 77.1 MPH in 2012, which was 1-1.5 MPH fast than the previous (and current) version we see. The flaw may have been assuming he'd be able to sustain that velocity, which seemingly had a massive impact on his effectiveness.

 

I'd argue those who seemingly "knew" Dickey would never replicate his 2012 season (or come close) should also have strongly been against the JA Happ signing this year...based on the assumption the tangible skill change wouldn't be sustainable.

[HERPDERP]

Morneau would have been a pretty good pick for this team instead of Smoak, even if he cost more. I would have brought him on as the regular 1B as well.

[Brownie19]

Morneau would have been a pretty good pick for this team instead of Smoak, even if he cost more. I would have brought him on as the regular 1B as well.

 

Morneau on the DL may be worth more than Smoak in our lineup...

[Laika]

Trades fall into one of nine categories. Imagine a 9x9 grid.

 

Actually, don't imagine. Observe a 9x9 grid!

 

You can make a trade that is Good, Fair, or Bad.

That trade can work out Better than expected, As expected, or Worse than expected.

 

[table=width: 500, class: grid, align: left]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]Fair[/td]

[td]Bad[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Better than Expected[/td]

[td]Donaldson trade[/td]

[td]Bautista![/td]

[td][/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]As Expected[/td]

[td]Morrow trade[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]Napoli for Francisco + Marlins deal[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Worse than Expected[/td]

[td]Rasmus + Escobar trades[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]Dickey trade[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

[Boxcar]

Trades fall into one of nine categories. Imagine a 9x9 grid.

 

Actually, don't imagine. Observe a 9x9 grid!

 

You can make a trade that is Good, Fair, or Bad.

That trade can work out Better than expected, As expected, or Worse than expected.

 

[table=width: 500, class: grid, align: left]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]Fair[/td]

[td]Bad[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Better than Expected[/td]

[td]Donaldson trade[/td]

[td]Bautista![/td]

[td][/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]As Expected[/td]

[td]Morrow trade[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]Napoli for Francisco + Marlins deal[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Worse than Expected[/td]

[td]Rasmus + Escobar trades[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]Dickey trade[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

You and your f***ing make believe tables. If you put it in a table, does it instantly carry more weight?

 

Also, think Escobar was as expected, he was very valuable for the cost.

[Cyborg]

You and your f***ing make believe tables. If you put it in a table, does it instantly carry more weight?

 

Well tables functionally do carry weight.

[Laika]

You and your f***ing make believe tables. If you put it in a table, does it instantly carry more weight?

 

Also, think Escobar was as expected, he was very valuable for the cost.

 

Escobar trade was amazing, but it didn't work out amazingly because a) tu es maricon and really stupid subsequent trade to MIA/TB for kind of nothing. They could have bathed in surplus value for a half decade, but they settled for a small cup of fun because reasons.

 

Some people are more visual learners and thinkers so I think yes, when you express things visually in tables your opinions can carry more weight or at least be understood if not accepted by more people.

[Boxcar]

Well tables functionally do carry weight.

 

Die immediately

[Boxcar]

Escobar trade was amazing, but it didn't work out amazingly because a) tu es maricon and really stupid subsequent trade to MIA/TB for kind of nothing. They could have bathed in surplus value for a half decade, but they settled for a small cup of fun because reasons.

 

Some people are more visual learners and thinkers so I think yes, when you express things visually in tables your opinions can carry more weight or at least be understood if not accepted by more people.

 

I'd view them separately but at least I understand your rationale.

 

Don't respond to me being a dickhead that way, it makes me feel bad

[HERPDERP]

tu es maricon issue was stupid.

 

it's no different than a star Australian baseball player coming over here, befriending Josh Donaldson and calling him a ****

[GOINSGOINSGONE]

Could anyone tell me the expected matchups for the white sox series early next week by chance? Looking to see Sale if he's scheduled.

[Maahfaace]

tu es maricon issue was stupid.

 

it's no different than a star Australian baseball player coming over here, befriending Josh Donaldson and calling him a ****

 

When did appeasing the SJWs become a thing?

[burlingtonbandit]

Fantastic article in SI about Shapiro and the high performance team as well as about sports science in general around baseball. This is probably my favourite thing Shapiro has done since being hired. Really excited to see what the new ST facility will look like too.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/04/12/toronto-blue-jays-sports-science

[Angrioter]

Good read about Joe Biagini

 

“I think everything up to this point has been a surprise. Right now, it’s a surprise honor to get to speak to you and answer your questions. Honestly.

 

“When I was in college, I really wasn’t that good of a baseball player. My junior year at Davis, after I transferred from a junior college, and was coming off Tommy John surgery, I had an 11.00 ERA for most of the year. Then I got it way down to 7-something by the end.

 

“The last day of the season, I came in to pitch and did bad. I got hit around a bunch. It was my birthday. My dad was there and he was looking at my velocity. The radar gun was off — it showed mid-80s — but we didn’t know that. We were like, ‘Ah, man.’

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-biagini-playfully-irreverent-rule-5-blue-jay/

[xposbrad]

Dickey was potentially a cheap ace (as it turns out he was more of an innings eater but there was reason to believe he wouldn't age normally). The rationale for the Dickey trade was solid in context. The problem was the context in the first place. AA's decision to go all in was a huge strategic blunder and Dickey is just one element of that more fundamental mistake. If it had been the right time to go all in, the Dickey trade could have been like the Jeff Kent trade even if Dickey wasn't quite an Ace, he could have been part of a playoff run on a better team. The real issue is going all in with a mediocre team. Why? They weren't coming off a good season. They had too many holes to think they could fill them all in one off season and some of the attempts to plug holes only opened up other ones (that disastrous Cleveland trade).

 

Except Dickey was mid 30s and a knuckleballer. It's hard to gauge how well that would have translated into fulltime AL pitching with a DH. If this was a trade for a pitcher in his prime, let's say 28 with already 4 years of proven success in the majors I think I would have been way happier. But it was for a knuckleball pitcher with limited AL exposure. That's the problem, we're not saying the idea of going after a cheap/controlled pitcher was the problem it was WHO they went after. With the package they gave up, they easily could have gotten a younger AL ace, TD/Thor were well known prospects in the game.

[Boxcar]

tu es maricon issue was stupid.

 

it's no different than a star Australian baseball player coming over here, befriending Josh Donaldson and calling him a ****

 

Personally, I love that Australians use the word **** so liberally. I just love the abrupt way it rolls off the tongue. ****. Cccc****

[HERPDERP]

Except Dickey was mid 30s and a knuckleballer. It's hard to gauge how well that would have translated into fulltime AL pitching with a DH. If this was a trade for a pitcher in his prime, let's say 28 with already 4 years of proven success in the majors I think I would have been way happier. But it was for a knuckleball pitcher with limited AL exposure. That's the problem, we're not saying the idea of going after a cheap/controlled pitcher was the problem it was WHO they went after. With the package they gave up, they easily could have gotten a younger AL ace, TD/Thor were well known prospects in the game.

 

as I mentioned before

 

-age doesn't matter with a knuckler. He had 2 good full seasons and 3/4 good season before the trade.

 

-Dickey's knuckler is a unique enough pitch that it doesn't matter about the DH. The whole deal about the DH and pitchers changing leagues is because they only have to pitch to 8 hitters and the hitting pitcher can have fastballs pumped by him. Not to mention he dominated the NL so much in those years that even with league regression he would have been a good pitcher.

 

-You aren't going to get a young ace for Syndergaard and d'Arnaud at that time. Why the hell would anyone do that sort of trade? If I recall AA in the conference, he said Cy Youngs don't often become available on the market, so thats why they made that move.

[HERPDERP]

Personally, I love that Australians use the word **** so liberally. I just love the abrupt way it rolls off the tongue. ****. Cccc****

 

I sure hope you follow Gary the Goat and Kevin the ****

 

[BigCecil]

Watching him pitch is hard. But I try to think about our steals off of the A's, PITT and CINN for our big 3 who are giving us a ton of under market WAR and some great moments over the last few years. Glass half full.

 

I'll never let it go. At no time did I think, "This is a good move." Or "This it'll be worth it for a playoff run."

An absolute terrible trade from day one and I called it. Guy was 39 or whatever it was at the time. People's defense was that knuckleballers can pitch longer.

 

lol. Fair enough. I honestly had no idea the kid could be this at the time of the deal. His stuff is just so ridiculously filthy. A SP touching 101 with that breaking ball.

 

Thor could match RA's total WAR here in one season @500k per.

 

Insult to injury has been the early going where Wright is even pitching better than RA. Lots of movement, but he just doesn't have it going early on.

[KingKat]

That's the problem, we're not saying the idea of going after a cheap/controlled pitcher was the problem it was WHO they went after.

 

Dickey being WHO he was is what made the trade possible. That's the reason he was signed for so cheap and even on the trade market. Dickey being WHO he was is what created what seemed like a unique opportunity.