Shapiro: Upgrades planned for RC, grass not a top priority

[Brownie19]

Of those 3 points the only one I would be concerned about would be the health of the players. If its just going to be a layer of dirt on top of concrete its going to be even worse than the turf was for the players bodies.

 

Jesus - I don't think they are just going to call up some jerk off landscape contractor from the yellow pages, who's blindly going to just throw a skiff of ball diamond granular over the concrete and call it a day...

[Brownie19]

He inherited a team that was good in 2015. I guess it depends on what the word contender means right. We weren't better than Boston even before the Price signing and we weren't significantly better than the NYY either, if i remember the projections correctly. The Jays had a shot at the division(and still do) but Shapiro wasn't left with a 95 win team that had a high chance of winning the division, which is how i would define contender.

 

I guess no team is a contender then because essentially no team is ever projected to be a 95 win team heading into a season - let alone a month into the offseason.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jesus - I don't think they are just going to call up some jerk off landscape contractor from the yellow pages, who's blindly going to just throw a skiff of ball diamond granular over the concrete and call it a day...

 

Lol well thats what the old turf was like I'm pretty sure.

[Spanky99]

Lol well thats what the old turf was like I'm pretty sure.

 

Not at the bag cut outs, they've always been dirt.

[BallsDeep]

Contracting out a drainage job for a billion dollar company like Rogers isnt an issue IMO, not sure why its made such a big deal. Just dont think they care enough to do it.

[Dick_Pole]

This doesn't mean grass isn't coming. Dirt infield is a nice start. Players have been asking for it for years. Also f*** the Argos. They are to blame for a lot of s*** actually. We want an NFL team. And that will happen eventually. Hopefully when I'm not old as f***.

 

Oh gosh, you're one of THOSE guys. Look, the reason why Toronto doesn't have an NFL team here isn't because of the Argos, but the Bills. The Bills either move here or it's an uphill battle to get a team which includes compensating the Bills for losing >25% of their fan/revenue base. Do people really think the NFL is calling up the front office of the CFL and asking permission to put an NFL team here? Plus I doubt the existence of an NFL team would have a major impact on the CFL team, despite popular opinion to the contrary. Two very different fan bases.

[Krylian]

Oh gosh, you're one of THOSE guys. Look, the reason why Toronto doesn't have an NFL team here isn't because of the Argos, but the Bills. The Bills either move here or it's an uphill battle to get a team which includes compensating the Bills for losing >25% of their fan/revenue base. Do people really think the NFL is calling up the front office of the CFL and asking permission to put an NFL team here? Plus I doubt the existence of an NFL team would have a major impact on the CFL team, despite popular opinion to the contrary. Two very different fan bases.

 

The reason Toronto doesn't have a team is because of TV. Nothing more. Nothing less.

[glory]

I guess no team is a contender then because essentially no team is ever projected to be a 95 win team heading into a season - let alone a month into the offseason.

 

He inherited what should be an elite offense with a one year window, but with no pitching depth and a farm system that will probably rank in the bottom 10 in baseball this winter. A likely contender in 2016 followed by a lot of uncertainty in 2017. If the team contends and makes the playoffs in 2016, he'll get very little if any credit for it, and if the team has to take a step back in 2017 due to the losses of Bautista and/or Encarnacion, then he'll get all the blame. Hell, he's getting blamed for two things that had absolutely no chance of happening even if AA and Beeston stayed another five years (Price re-signing and grass).

 

I think it's fair to say that it's not the easiest situation to inherit. I thought he did a great job of replenishing the pitching depth without trading a prospect, losing a draft pick, or signing an unreasonable contract. What he does after 2016 in an effort to keep this team a contender will be interesting.

[Spanky99]

You guys are arguing semantics at this point, right now Lacava's making the moves, with Shapiro signing off at the moment. You'll get a better feel of our FO at the deadline and so on... MS and TL had a plan moving forward at a payroll parameter, it's apparent. RA will take full control when he has a proper feel for the club and system, it's all about transition at the moment.

[burlingtonbandit]

He inherited what should be an elite offense with a one year window, but with no pitching depth and a farm system that will probably rank in the bottom 10 in baseball this winter. A likely contender in 2016 followed by a lot of uncertainty in 2017. If the team contends and makes the playoffs in 2016, he'll get very little if any credit for it, and if the team has to take a step back in 2017 due to the losses of Bautista and/or Encarnacion, then he'll get all the blame. Hell, he's getting blamed for two things that had absolutely no chance of happening even if AA and Beeston stayed another five years (Price re-signing and grass).

 

I think it's fair to say that it's not the easiest situation to inherit. I thought he did a great job of replenishing the pitching depth without trading a prospect, losing a draft pick, or signing an unreasonable contract. What he does after 2016 in an effort to keep this team a contender will be interesting.

 

To be fair Shapiro knew the situation coming in and should know the expectations of the fan base. I'm sure he has a thick skin and he seems like he doesn't care how he is portrayed by media types. He knows as much as anyone its not about him its about the players and they will deservedly get the credit when the team wins.

 

He wouldn't have taken the job if he thought it wasn't one of the better jobs in baseball.

[glory]

How is it a 1 year window if you re-sign Jose and Edwin? They were both top 10 in wRC+ and have not shown signs of decline. I can pay for Edwin in 2 seconds. Trade Revere, start Pompey. Give a 7M raise to Edwin. Now figure out Jose. Increase payroll by 5M to sign the best hitter in franchise history maybe?

 

Now this god forsaken window that I hear about every off-season just opened up a bit more! Especially since Shapiro and Co. will have 3-4 years to draft and develop while this offence continues to carry us.

 

Shapiro's situation isn't a slam dunk but it's a great situation. You can't just look at the assets in the minors. You have to look at the collective assets of the organization because it's rare for a team to have great assets at both the major league and minor league levels. Donaldson alone is worth the 2-3 high level guys we seem to be missing in the minors.

 

Re-signing both Bautista and Encarnacion is simply not financially feasible given where the team's budget is, unless they move someone making $20m annually (either Martin or Tulo). Let's be realistic, the payroll will probably be around $140-150m in a best case. Re-signing both of them would mean paying five players $100m combined in 2017 (and more than that in 2018 depending on where Donaldson's final year of arb falls). Unless Shapiro also inherited the Indians starting rotation, that's not a lot of wiggle room to improve the rotation and pen. Happ and Estrada make $27.5m in 2017. Dickey and Chavez will need to be replaced in the rotation. Cecil will need to be replaced in the pen. Etc.

 

It's a one year window with this current group. That doesn't mean Shapiro won't be able to acquire other players to extend the existing core post-2016 (Donaldson, Tulo, Stroman, Martin, etc), but it will be difficult to do. Either you lose Bautista/Edwin, or bring them back on free agent contracts while they are likely going to hit their declining years and forgo any financial flexibility to improve elsewhere.

 

Shapiro wasn't brought in to make the team older and more expensive. It was likely the opposite. That's why it's a tough spot. It's easy to focus on 2016 while losing sight of 2017-beyond.

[Stangstag]

Yeah I think 2017 will be a wash year unless our pitching prospects really step it up. An offensive core of Tulo/Donaldson/Martin is still above-average, but we'll need better pitching to make up for the loss of offense.

 

After 2016, Shapiro should be able to re-tool enough to have another competitor by 2018/2019

[crmr]

If payroll is still 140M after next season then f*** it all.

 

But even if you're paying 100M for 5 guys, it's not a problem for me if they're worth it. Because one way or another you're going to pay for wins. It could be with Bautista or you can let him go and pay 2 other guys to give you 4 WAR. What's the difference?

 

Those 5 guys will probably combine to give you 18-22 WAR (JD 7.5, Tulo 4, Martin 3, Jose 4, Edwin 4) for 100M which is 4 or 5 million per win. By 2017 or 2018 that could be less than half the going rate for a win.

 

You can't forget that we had by far the best run differential in baseball without Tulo hitting and without Travis. And we didn't have much in the rotation this year either (I think a whole year of Stroman vs. 2 months of Price cancel out). We don't need Cleveland's rotation lol.

 

We'd be paying for an offence and defence so good that we don't have to put that much into pitching.

 

The only thing is under your setup you're paying for declining players (4 of them) and given contract length you would be paying more than 100 million for the wins since they'll have to extend JD for a big amount. The fact is this team is set to compete in 2016, could be solid in 2017 but to be a true contender post 2017 (even in it) they would probably need to make some really unwise decisions.

[crmr]

funny enough, for the long term health of the franchise it's probably best if they aren't very good next year so they can command big hauls for EE and Jose and build around that. Can probably get a close to MLB ready player for each of them along with some guys lower in the minors

[burlingtonbandit]

funny enough, for the long term health of the franchise it's probably best if they aren't very good next year so they can command big hauls for EE and Jose and build around that. Can probably get a close to MLB ready player for each of them along with some guys lower in the minors

 

I've heard this a couple of times but I'm not a huge believer in it.

 

Situation A: The Jays are good next year, win the Division and make it back to the ALCS.

 

Situation B: Jays are a .500 team who trade Edwin and Jose at the deadline

 

Situation A probably gives the Blue Jays an extra $75+ Million in revenue which would allow the Blue Jays to have a larger payroll in 2017 and beyond. That will let you be able to sign better players and extending the "window" of contention until the Blue Jays new farm system becomes big league ready.

 

Situation B gives you some nice pieces for the future I'm sure but with that comes a large reduction in payroll and you lose a lot of the fans you gained this past season.

[wamco]

Yes, I can't wait for the next drabek, Wallace and snider. Beat it ee and Joey . Trade Martin and his contract asap to clear room

[Olerud363]

Yes, I can't wait for the next drabek, Wallace and snider. Beat it ee and Joey . Trade Martin and his contract asap to clear room

 

Yes. Drabek, Wallace, Changed baseball. Prospects are no longer valuable. What the f is wrong with you??

 

For every example there is a counter examples. Chris Lee and Grady Sizemore. Chicago Cubs, 3/4 of their top players last year Arrieta, Rizzu and Addison Russel were prospects from other teams.

 

For gods sake, prospects fail, but so do established vets. Look at Hanley and the panda bear.

 

It is all just probabilty. There is no certainty. You just have to play the odds...

[Jimcanuck]

Yes, I can't wait for the next drabek, Wallace and snider. Beat it ee and Joey . Trade Martin and his contract asap to clear room

 

Osuna, Pillar, Stroman, Travis?

 

The above 4 have FAR more value than EE, JB, Tulo, Martin.

[wamco]

I'm saying I wouldn't be so quick to run elite players out of town and rely on prospects as they fail more often than not, even the supposed best ones. And pretending a draft pick is some great compensation is foolhardy .

[wamco]

Osuna, Pillar, Stroman, Travis?

 

 

The above 4 have FAR more value than EE, JB, Tulo, Martin.

 

No way a team would get the 4 players listed second in a trade for the first 4

[Jimcanuck]

I'm saying I wouldn't be so quick to run elite players out of town and rely on prospects as they fail more often than not, even the supposed best ones. And pretending a draft pick is some great compensation is foolhardy .

 

no one wants to run EE or JB out of town. they will be looking to get paid - i haven't seen any indication they will take a home team discount. this is likely their last chance to cash in. considerable risk, not unlike the risk with Price or Greinke. hope one of them gets re-signed, but if not, nothing wrong with a top draft pick in lieu of paying a declining vet FA dollars.

[Jimcanuck]

No way a team would get the 4 players listed second in a trade for the first 4

 

oh for sure they would. do the math.

[G-Snarls]

How is it a 1 year window if you re-sign Jose and Edwin? They were both top 10 in wRC+ and have not shown signs of decline. I can pay for Edwin in 2 seconds. Trade Revere, start Pompey. Give a 7M raise to Edwin. Now figure out Jose. Increase payroll by 5M to sign the best hitter in franchise history maybe?

 

Now this god forsaken window that I hear about every off-season just opened up a bit more! Especially since Shapiro and Co. will have 3-4 years to draft and develop while this offence continues to carry us.

 

I still can't believe we've only paid Edwin 8M, 9M and 10M for the last 3 seasons. What a f'n bargain. (12 WAR over those 3 years)

[TheHurl]

 

Situation A probably gives the Blue Jays an extra $75+ Million in revenue which would allow the Blue Jays to have a larger payroll in 2017 and beyond

 

Is that $75m a year on top of last years $100m?

[GD]

I liked the part when Olerud called Cliff Lee, Chris Lee

[Dick_Pole]

Unless 2016 has as much bad luck as 2013, the Jays are in contention or at least over .500 (aka in contention by July). Even if 2013 epic-level of injuries and underperformance did occur, we can't reasonably expect the MIF and C positions to be as much as a clusterf*** even if Martin, Tulo and Travis were to all miss significant amounts of time, simply because the front office would be able to find better replacement players than what we saw in 2013. So the chances of any vets being traded at the deadline is almost nil, save for the possibility of MLB talent for MLB talent.

 

Looking ahead to 2017: C, 2B, SS, 3B and CF are all covered, barring injury, stupid trade or unexpected decline, and we're looking at broadly somewhere between 15-25 WAR combined from those spots. Those are always the hardest spots to fill too, so that's a pretty good situation to be in.

 

Colabello, Smoak, Revere, Pompey, Alford or like players will be used to fill out the roster. Now assuming the Jays lose both EE and JB, is it really that hard to find one or two more guys who can replace them at RF, 1B or DH at 105 RC+? Hell, if the Jays get lucky they might already have one in Smoak or Colabello, and can use the $24M in payroll saved from not paying EE or JB to augment with one 105 RC+ guy and a SP. This is assuming there is room in the budget to pay raises due to JD and RM from new cash and not out of the existing $140M bucket, likely in the ~$15M range. Even if that's not the case, $10M should be plenty to find some slightly above average guy. An Adam Lind type of player.

 

So on the position player side, I think the Jays are in a great spot in 2017, much better than most teams, with or without JB or EE. Even if they replace them with guys who roll out 1.5 to 3 WAR, we're still looking at an offense/defense that's upside is >30 WAR and realistically at least 20 WAR. So at a minimum the Jays are still a top 10 offense, with the possibility of being #1 going into 2017. Like I said that's barring any significant injury or decline, but all teams are equally subject to those caveats.

 

Now pitching is a lot more iffy. Stroman should mature into the ace. Happ...I like him...but being conservative he's not going to be much more than #4. Hutch and Sanchez....who the f*** knows what they'll be up to. Does Dickey get re-signed if he's decent in 2016? Does he want to retire? Osuna should either be a good closer or a plausible starter. So at a minimum the Jays have 2 starting pitchers. If they get lucky they'll have 6 or 5 plus a closer. Relief pitching I'm least concerned about. There will always be a Delabar waiting somewhere.

 

But even if the pitching is lousy with 10 WAR and position players are good at 25 WAR, that puts the team on the cusp of contention.

 

There really is not a strong argument in thinking the Jays will suck donkey balls in 2017. Especially since a lot can happen in those 16 months, presumably for the better if the front office is as good as everybody thinks.

 

EDIT: Totally forgot about Estrada. So three SP on the roster for 2017, plus Hutch, Sanchez and Osuna and Dickey being a 50-50.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Dick_Pole

[burlingtonbandit]

Is that $75m a year on top of last years $100m?

 

yes. Beeston was terrible at his job.

 

A full year of great TV ratings, attendance etc.. is worth a lot. Especially if the Jays use dynamic pricing

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Grass in the field isn't a priority but with Justin T now in charge grass is now a priority in the stands!

[DuckDuckGose]

Grass in the field isn't a priority but with Justin T now in charge grass is now a priority in the stands!

 

Smoking by laws will still be in effect meaning you'll never see grass in the stands

[G-Snarls]

Smoking by laws will still be in effect meaning you'll never see grass in the stands

 

Some idiot fired one up a few rows behind me in the 500's during ALDS game 1. He didn't get many puffs off it before the cops came and ruined his fun.