Blue Jays re-sign Justin Smoak, non-tender Thole

[Laika]

A year ago the market for Smoak was 1 Million dollars. He has done nothing in the last year to justify an increase from that number. He basically repeated his 2013 season, which should have been the bare minimum expectation moving from Safeco to the Rogers Centre.

 

When I heard they had signed him to a 3.9 million dollar deal, I assumed it was over 2 years (1.8 per year) and I still didn't like it.

 

Smoak had a 112 wRC+ in 2013 with traditional stats of .238/20/50 and he was paid $2.7M in arb 1 in 2014 as a result.

He was a nightmare in 2014 so he was non-tendered and signed at a pay cut.

Then in 2015 he basically returned to 2013 talent levels, like you said. .226/18/59

 

It was in way less PA though. His traditional production scaled to 600 PA would have been 33 HR and 108 RBI, believe it or not.

 

Arbitration is a weird process that is based on traditional stats and what similar players have made during arbitration.

 

I don't have the insider's knowledge to know if his arbitration for 2016 would have been tied to the $2.7M from 2014 or the $1M contract from last year, but I've heard that he was projected to make $4M in arbitration.

 

I find it funny (and I'm not talking about you) that some of the same people who basically think money shouldn't matter when it comes to Price all of a sudden are perturbed that Justin Smoak is making a few more peanuts.

[baloojayz]

Was hoping they would go with Colabello and use the remaining cap to stack the pen.

 

The Jays are scary with a stacked pen. We've got guys in the rotation that can give us 5 decent innings every time out.

[baloojayz]

Smoak had a 112 wRC+ in 2013 with traditional stats of .238/20/50 and he was paid $2.7M in arb 1 in 2014 as a result.

He was a nightmare in 2014 so he was non-tendered and signed at a pay cut.

Then in 2015 he basically returned to 2013 talent levels, like you said. .226/18/59

 

It was in way less PA though. His traditional production scaled to 600 PA would have been 33 HR and 108 RBI, believe it or not.

 

Arbitration is a weird process that is based on traditional stats and what similar players have made during arbitration.

 

I find it funny (and I'm not talking about you) that some of the same people who basically think money shouldn't matter when it comes to Price all of a sudden are perturbed that Justin Smoak is making a few more peanuts.

 

Woah...that's a bit of a surprise

[Laika]

Woah...that's a bit of a surprise

 

Yeah the guy had a .243 ISO. Easy to look past that when three other guys on the team had better marks, but coming to Rogers Centre really did unlock Smoak's latent power.

[glory]

Career 10.5% walk rate and does have power. There's enough good things to like about him but he hasn't been able to reach his ceiling, and he looked helpless against off speed pitches a lot of times. I don't think he's a bad guy to take a risk on, especially since the Jays seem to have a lot of surplus value in other positions on the field. Just surprised he signed for as much as he did. MLBTR was way off.

[KingKat]

Yeah the guy had a .243 ISO. Easy to look past that when three other guys on the team had better marks, but coming to Rogers Centre really did unlock Smoak's latent power.

 

I'll admit that my perspective on him is a bit warped by how bad he looked at the end. Also it seemed that he was really under-utilized during his most productive stretch and not all that productive when he finally was used more but there's probably confirmation bias in that.

[Laika]

[table=width: 400, class: grid]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]BB%[/td]

[td]K%[/td]

[td]ISO[/td]

[td]BABIP[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Smoak[/td]

[td]8.8%[/td]

[td]26.2%[/td]

[td].243[/td]

[td].254[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Colabello[/td]

[td]6.1%[/td]

[td]26.7%[/td]

[td].198[/td]

[td].411[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you?

 

Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic.

 

It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively.

 

Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.

[Frenchsoup]

[table=width: 400, class: grid]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]BB%[/td]

[td]K%[/td]

[td]ISO[/td]

[td]BABIP[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Smoak[/td]

[td]8.8%[/td]

[td]26.2%[/td]

[td].243[/td]

[td].254[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Colabello[/td]

[td]6.1%[/td]

[td]26.7%[/td]

[td].198[/td]

[td].411[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you?

 

Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic.

 

It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively.

 

Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.

 

And I'd take the younger guy.

[KingKat]

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 400]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]BB%[/TD]

[TD]K%[/TD]

[TD]ISO[/TD]

[TD]BABIP[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Smoak[/TD]

[TD]8.8%[/TD]

[TD]26.2%[/TD]

[TD].243[/TD]

[TD].254[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Colabello[/TD]

[TD]6.1%[/TD]

[TD]26.7%[/TD]

[TD].198[/TD]

[TD].411[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you?

 

Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic.

 

It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively.

 

Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.

 

Smoak can hit from the left side. That doesn't really change his overall value but it might hold a certain appeal roster construction wise.

[baubau]

[table=width: 400, class: grid]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]BB%[/td]

[td]K%[/td]

[td]ISO[/td]

[td]BABIP[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Smoak[/td]

[td]8.8%[/td]

[td]26.2%[/td]

[td].243[/td]

[td].254[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Colabello[/td]

[td]6.1%[/td]

[td]26.7%[/td]

[td].198[/td]

[td].411[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you?

 

Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic.

 

It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively.

 

Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.

 

I disagree on the built his 2015 on duck-farts which won't transfer over. Colabello will likely always have a high BABIP given his ability to hit the ball throughout the field: Oppo%: 26.5% | Cent%: 39.1% | Pull%: 34.5 (last year) // Oppo%: 26.9% | Cent%: 37.6% | Pull%: 35.5% (career - 760 PA). In fact, over the past 2 years he has lowered his Pull% by 5% and increased his Cent% by 4.6%.

 

Would be interesting to hear the other offensive peripherals you would be referring to. Other than Hard% contact Smoak really doesn't have anything significant better. Colabello is at a respectable 31.1% Hard% so he isn't hitting softies. Smoak walks slightly more, sure. They both strike out at the same rate.

 

Not saying Colabello won't regress, a .400 BABIP is redonk. But his underlining stats make me think Cola can be a above average hitter. In the end he and Smoak will likely provide near the same value.

[gruber92]

[table=width: 400, class: grid]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]BB%[/td]

[td]K%[/td]

[td]ISO[/td]

[td]BABIP[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Smoak[/td]

[td]8.8%[/td]

[td]26.2%[/td]

[td].243[/td]

[td].254[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Colabello[/td]

[td]6.1%[/td]

[td]26.7%[/td]

[td].198[/td]

[td].411[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you?

 

Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic.

 

It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively.

 

Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.

 

Maybe Colabello's BABIP is better because he hits the ball to all fields with authority, opposed to topping pitches on the outer half into a shift.

 

"It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over."

 

Does anybody actually watch the games anymore?

[Laika]

Maybe Colabello's BABIP is better because he hits the ball to all fields with authority, opposed to topping pitches on the outer half into a shift.

 

Of course. We could probably expect Colabello to BABIP a bit over .300 due to his up the middle, line drive approach. Maybe .320 is fair.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Smoak had a 112 wRC+ in 2013 with traditional stats of .238/20/50 and he was paid $2.7M in arb 1 in 2014 as a result.

He was a nightmare in 2014 so he was non-tendered and signed at a pay cut.

Then in 2015 he basically returned to 2013 talent levels, like you said. .226/18/59

 

It was in way less PA though. His traditional production scaled to 600 PA would have been 33 HR and 108 RBI, believe it or not.

 

Arbitration is a weird process that is based on traditional stats and what similar players have made during arbitration.

 

I don't have the insider's knowledge to know if his arbitration for 2016 would have been tied to the $2.7M from 2014 or the $1M contract from last year, but I've heard that he was projected to make $4M in arbitration.

 

I find it funny (and I'm not talking about you) that some of the same people who basically think money shouldn't matter when it comes to Price all of a sudden are perturbed that Justin Smoak is making a few more peanuts.

 

How much of arbitration is based on the simple stats though? I think it's becoming much less these days but would like to know how this has been evolving. I doubt it means much now, everyone knows the stats that go beyond batting average. I think arbitration goes alright for the most part, MAYBE saves is still a bargaining point?

[Laika]

How much of arbitration is based on the simple stats though? I think it's becoming much less these days but would like to know how this has been evolving. I doubt it means much now, everyone knows the stats that go beyond batting average. I think arbitration goes alright for the most part, MAYBE saves is still a bargaining point?

 

I think it's entirely based on the basic stats. Not as a rule or anything, just as a holdover.

 

The arbitrators aren't necessarily baseball people, they are labour law people (lawyers and judges), so the process is kind of stuck with with these old stats and old reference points that can work across both the baseball and employment law worlds. That's why they also care about playing time and awards.

 

"I see here, Mr. Donaldson, that you barely missed any days of work in 2015 and you were also recognized by your peers as being excellent at your job. Very good!"

 

I don't really know how it works exactly.

[gruber92]

Of course. We could probably expect Colabello to BABIP a bit over .300 due to his up the middle, line drive approach. Maybe .320 is fair.

 

Fair enough, but i wouldn't be at all surprised if he was closer to .350, given the fact that he for the most part just takes what is given.

[Laika]

Fair enough, but i wouldn't be at all surprised if he was closer to .350, given the fact that he for the most part just takes what is given.

 

.350 is elite, Miguel Cabrera / Mike Trout / Paul Goldschmidt, routinely smashes line drives at 100+ mph territory.

[Terminator]

Other than Chris Davis there isn't jackshit on the FA market. Doesn't appear that there is much on the trade market either other than the likes of Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, etc. Bringing back Smoak is fine. He at least has an elite skill that can be used in a platoon or as a bench player.

[Abomination]

Smoak signed for 3.9 million getting himself a very nice pay raise. I wonder if they'll keep the Smoakabello platoon or opt to add a more versatile player.

 

Also Thole is hopefully gone for good.

 

Discuss.

 

It really isn't that big a pay raise. He turned down more money last year to come here where he had a better path to playing time (if I remember right). He had made 2.6M the previous year, so it would probably be better to look at it as 2.6M to 3.2M to 3.9M or something like that. We just got a discount in the middle.

[burlingtonbandit]

Other than Chris Davis there isn't jackshit on the FA market. Doesn't appear that there is much on the trade market either other than the likes of Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, etc. Bringing back Smoak is fine. He at least has an elite skill that can be used in a platoon or as a bench player.

 

Alonso would of been the better option IMO. He's much better vs RHP and with half the strikeouts which I think complements the offence better. Also a very good defensive 1st baseman.

[TheHurl]

Fair enough, but i wouldn't be at all surprised if he was closer to .350, given the fact that he for the most part just takes what is given.

 

All things being exactly equal Cola with a .350 BABIP last year is a .279/.327/.477 line and .258/.307/.456 with NJH's .320 line. (note: for the purpose of this the slugging percentage is a very unrealistic calculation by assuming all the removed hits were singles)

[Terminator]

Alonso would of been the better option IMO. He's much better vs RHP and with half the strikeouts which I think complements the offence better. Also a very good defensive 1st baseman.

 

Yeah he would have been but I shouldn't have mentioned him as someone who would have came for basically free. Pomeranz isn't bad.

 

Not sure we should have given up a decent reliever like Loup or something for him when we could just bring back Smoak.

[Laika]

"It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over."

 

Does anybody actually watch the games anymore?

 

Why do you have to be so obtuse? I watched every game and saw a loooooot of duck farts by Colabello. He was the king of duck farts.

 

We see what we want, to some extent. You see a shiny batting average and think he's good.

[Boxcar]

.350 is elite, Miguel Cabrera / Mike Trout / Paul Goldschmidt, routinely smashes line drives at 100+ mph territory.

 

But those guys aren't Blue Jays.

[TilsonBritoFan]

This place is so f***ed right now. And I'm not talking about the new posters.

[King]

Colabello had the highest BABIP over the course of a single season (min. 350 PAs) in the past 50 years, but not surprisingly, Gruber is all in!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1955&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

http://i.imgur.com/QywfXdb.png

[TheHurl]

Colabello had the highest BABIP over the course of a single season (min. 350 PAs) in the past 50 years, but not surprisingly, Gruber is all in!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1955&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

http://i.imgur.com/QywfXdb.png

 

Just looking at some of the follow up seasons after the .400 BABIP season. Nothing really telling actually

 

Kemp 08 (I moved it down to the 300 PA's) 109 wRC

Jefferson 97 - 112 wRC+

Santana 15 - 40 wRC

Hernandez 03 - 58 wRC

Turner 15 - 141 wRC

Votto 13 - 155 wRC

Stubbs 15 - 66 wRC

ManRam 01 - 158 wRC

Ruggiano 13 - 93 wRC

Duncan 98 - 48 wRC

Wily Mo 07 - 97 wRC

[Stangstag]

Maybe Colabello's BABIP is better because he hits the ball to all fields with authority, opposed to topping pitches on the outer half into a shift.

 

"It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over."

 

Does anybody actually watch the games anymore?

 

I would say more than 50% of Colabello's hits were ground ball singles just barely through the infield. Just going off memory, but he had A LOT of those

[gruber92]

I would say more than 50% of Colabello's hits were ground ball singles just barely through the infield. Just going off memory, but he had A LOT of those

 

I also recall seeing a lot of base through the right side with two strikes or with a runner on first base. Whatever the case may be with his BABIP, he had a solid approach in 2015 and he should hopefully continue with it next season. TBH, I couldn't give a flying f*** what his BABIP ends up being next season, just hoping he continues with the approach and the numbers will work out with am obvious regression.

[gruber92]

Colabello had the highest BABIP over the course of a single season (min. 350 PAs) in the past 50 years, but not surprisingly, Gruber is all in!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1955&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

http://i.imgur.com/QywfXdb.png

Keep crunching those numbers kid.

[Key22]

I would say more than 50% of Colabello's hits were ground ball singles just barely through the infield. Just going off memory, but he had A LOT of those

 

Yes he seemed to win us a bunch of games doing that - the drawn in infield and a pitch in the middle over the plate - hey just stick the bat out and bam single up the middle to score the game winning run from third - better than selfish big name jerk who swings for the fences and strikes out 9/10 but happens to hit 3 bombs when the team is up by 10.

 

The infield is back - maybe Colabello takes a different approach to the at-bat - is that at all factored in? Do the stats account for the multi-verse in game situations where a guy says hey if I hit the ball 100 feet I win the game? Spray hitters tend to have better bat control and thus can actually look at the defense and determine which pitch, where it is pitched will give them the best opportunity to get a hit. Pull hitters tend to only be able to hit balls pitched to them in certain locations. Smoak hit 18 bombs in just 296 AB's. More than respectable defense (the best we have anyway) at 1B and IF EE gets hurt (he always seems to be hurt) you have a guy with the potential to pound 35-40 homers over a full season - even if he strikes out a TON. Not a bad back-up and maybe you could trade EE for a pitcher and use Colabello and Smoak as a platoon.