Blue Jays re-sign Justin Smoak, non-tender Thole

[G-Snarls]

Other than Chris Davis there isn't jackshit on the FA market. Doesn't appear that there is much on the trade market either other than the likes of Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, etc. Bringing back Smoak is fine. He at least has an elite skill that can be used in a platoon or as a bench player.

 

True. We really just needed pitching and positional depth

[reedjohnsonfan]

I think it's entirely based on the basic stats. Not as a rule or anything, just as a holdover.

 

The arbitrators aren't necessarily baseball people, they are labour law people (lawyers and judges), so the process is kind of stuck with with these old stats and old reference points that can work across both the baseball and employment law worlds. That's why they also care about playing time and awards.

 

"I see here, Mr. Donaldson, that you barely missed any days of work in 2015 and you were also recognized by your peers as being excellent at your job. Very good!"

 

I don't really know how it works exactly.

 

Yeah that makes sense and MLBTR uses the basic stats for their arbitration model.

 

"Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

 

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well"

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html

[Ultimate]

He was almost 30% better offensively in 2015 than in 2014. If he had repeated his 2014 performance he wouldn't have lasted the season and would be looking for a minor league deal somewhere.

 

I said he repeated 2013 not 2014.

[Ultimate]

Was hoping they would go with Colabello and use the remaining cap to stack the pen.

 

The Jays are scary with a stacked pen. We've got guys in the rotation that can give us 5 decent innings every time out.

 

Umm Cap?

[DerangedIdoit]

Umm Cap?

 

I think he is talking about the rumored self-imposed 140m that media outlets are reporting.

[BTS]

I said he repeated 2013 not 2014.

 

I know. You questioned what he did to earn a raise from what he got last year.

[Ultimate]

The debate shouldn't be about how the arbitration system works and whether Smoak would have got the same amount or more in arbitration.

 

The debate should be about whether the Jays should have kept him or not. At 2 million I thought it was a 50.50 debate. At 4 million its a no brainer, let him go. Colabello is a step up offensively and while Smoak is solid on D, he's not the elite defender that the TO media paints him as. Only a slight defensive upgrade over CC.

[Ultimate]

I know. You questioned what he did to earn a raise from what he got last year.

 

Going into last year he was moving from a pitchers park to a hitters park, the minimum expectation for him should have been to repeat his best season of 2 years prior. He really should have been able to do better than that. He did nothing last season to indicate that he has any more value than he did 1 year ago.

[BTS]

Going into last year he was moving from a pitchers park to a hitters park, the minimum expectation for him should have been to repeat his best season of 2 years prior. He really should have been able to do better than that. He did nothing last season to indicate that he has any more value than he did 1 year ago.

 

One year ago he was coming off a 78 wRC+ season. This year he put up a 107 wRC+. I don't care one way or another whether Smoak is on the roster, but he looks better now than a year ago.

[frizzer1]

I wonder if this move is influenced by the Jays scouts. Perhaps they still think their is more in Smoak's bat, I don't see it personally.

 

He would be fine if they outlawed curveballs.

[Ultimate]

One year ago he was coming off a 78 wRC+ season. This year he put up a 107 wRC+. I don't care one way or another whether Smoak is on the roster, but he looks better now than a year ago.

 

One year ago, he only got a Major league deal because the assumption was that the real Smoak was closer to the 2013 Smoak than the 2014 Smoak. If anyone actually believed the 2014 Smoak was the real Smoak, than the most he gets is a Minor League contract and he spends the whole year at AAA.

 

He was a Free Agent and any interest he received was based on that assumption.

[BTS]

One year ago, he only got a Major league deal because the assumption was that the real Smoak was closer to the 2013 Smoak than the 2014 Smoak. If anyone actually believed the 2014 Smoak was the real Smoak, than the most he gets is a Minor League contract and he spends the whole year at AAA.

 

He was a Free Agent and any interest he received was based on that assumption.

 

You can be a lot more confident going into 2016 that Smoak is 2014 Smoak than you could going into 2015. He's worth more.

[Ultimate]

You can be a lot more confident going into 2016 that Smoak is 2014 Smoak than you could going into 2015. He's worth more.

 

I think you meant 2015 or 2013. I see your logic, I just don't agree with it.

 

I was very on board with bringing him in for 2015 at 1 Million, I just thought that the potential payoff would be that he should be able to hit another level beyond any of his past production. Moving from an extreme pitchers park to a hitters park should on its own lead to a significant increase.

 

I could maybe see the logic that he's slightly more valuable than he was a year ago, but can't see any justification for a significant increase in value that would cause his market value to quadruple.

 

If the Jays had let him go, someone would have picked him up, but not for anywhere close to 3.9 mil.

[BTS]

I think you meant 2015 or 2013. I see your logic, I just don't agree with it.

 

I was very on board with bringing him in for 2015 at 1 Million, I just thought that the potential payoff would be that he should be able to hit another level beyond any of his past production. Moving from an extreme pitchers park to a hitters park should on its own lead to a significant increase.

 

I could maybe see the logic that he's slightly more valuable than he was a year ago, but can't see any justification for a significant increase in value that would cause his market value to quadruple.

 

If the Jays had let him go, someone would have picked him up, but not for anywhere close to 3.9 mil.

 

It will be interesting to see what Pedro Alvarez goes for. A bit better offensively, but he gives that back by being unplayable at 1B. I think he ends up with more than double what Smoak got.

[Ultimate]

It will be interesting to see what Pedro Alvarez goes for. A bit better offensively, but he gives that back by being unplayable at 1B. I think he ends up with more than double what Smoak got.

 

I'd say more than a bit better.

[baubau]

It will be interesting to see what Pedro Alvarez goes for. A bit better offensively, but he gives that back by being unplayable at 1B. I think he ends up with more than double what Smoak got.

 

Likely will. I can imagine a team like Baltimore overpaying for him, even with the trade of Trumbo. Hopefully there are dumb enough to financially cap themselves!

[Boxcar]

I'd say more than a bit better.

 

The stats do not agree. Just about the emptiest 30 homer bat you can imagine.

 

Same price, I might even take Smoak.

[Boxcar]

Likely will. I can imagine a team like Baltimore overpaying for him, even with the trade of Trumbo. Hopefully there are dumb enough to financially cap themselves!

 

Apparently Cleveland wants him :/

[Brownie19]

I'd say more than a bit better.

 

Well then you'd be wrong...sorry.

[G-Snarls]

It will be interesting to see what Pedro Alvarez goes for. A bit better offensively, but he gives that back by being unplayable at 1B. I think he ends up with more than double what Smoak got.

 

If so I feel better about the Smoak contract (which I don't mind that much anyway TBH)