JA Happ Signing: Good/Bad?

[BigCecil]

Well Stroman will be a Super 2 and will already be in his first year of arb. next season so the IP is a bit misleading since he missed almost all of last season. Archer and Holland are the first 2 pitchers that come to mind in terms of around the same service time. Matt Moore signed really early but I think that wasn't even after a full season.

 

I just think the earlier you sign him the more money you save especially with the way pitcher contracts are going.

 

That's a given. Its a matter of profiling risk. Sometimes teams want more information before they lock into a bigger investment even if it costs them more later. AA went on about that a lot in his tenure. Im not opposed to a reasonable ext for Stro of course.

 

Matt Moore's deal is interesting. Since 150 IP in 2013 he has struggled. Remains to be seen if he bounces back and that turns into a good deal for Rays.

[BigCecil]

I would imagine they bought forward contracts early this year when our dollar started dropping like a rock so that we hedged the discrepancies pretty well. I wouldn't be surprised if payroll actually did go up a lot but Shapiro/La Cava/Atkins are planning on trying to work out extensions with JD, Stroman, Edwin, and JB this off-season which could eat up a lot of the increased budget.

 

It's probably early on Stro with the control we have. Good luck to us with the other 3. Only ext I see possible there for anything remotely reasonable is Edwin and not optimistic on that. I see both JB and Edwin moving on.

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...al-to-be-done/ Further to this discussion. Herp just posted this in a new thread but Jose will follow suit likely. Edwin paid his dues on a team friendly deal, but now that he is an established masher he is going to cash in.

[burlingtonbandit]

That's a given. Its a matter of profiling risk. Sometimes teams want more information before they lock into a bigger investment even if it costs them more later. AA went on about that a lot in his tenure. Im not opposed to a reasonable ext for Stro of course.

 

Matt Moore's deal is interesting. Since 150 IP in 2013 he has struggled. Remains to be seen if he bounces back and that turns into a good deal for Rays.

 

Yeah but information costs a ton of money. In terms of Stroman I'd rather lock him into a contract now then pay an extra 20 million 1 year from now when we already have a solid expectation of the pitcher he is. I think he can be even better than he's projected to be which would only cause him to be more expensive. And when you consider Stroman will already be into arbitration at this time next year the chances of him signing a team friendly deal only go down since he will be making more than league min.

 

If Stroman goes out and has a 5 Win season you are looking at a guarantee of 30 million increasing to 50+. All "getting more information" really does is cost more money.

[BigCecil]

Yeah but information costs a ton of money. In terms of Stroman I'd rather lock him into a contract now then pay an extra 20 million 1 year from now when we already have a solid expectation of the pitcher he is. I think he can be even better than he's projected to be which would only cause him to be more expensive. And when you consider Stroman will already be into arbitration at this time next year the chances of him signing a team friendly deal only go down since he will be making more than league min.

 

If Stroman goes out and has a 5 Win season you are looking at a guarantee of 30 million increasing to 50+. All "getting more information" really does is cost more money.

 

That's not really an absolute. It CAN cost more money. OR you could extend someone who turns into Romero( or Moore perhaps) and in those cases the extension could actually cost you more money. Players don't always continue to improve.

[THANOS]

That's not really true. It CAN cost more money. OR you could extend someone who turns into Romero( or Moore perhaps) and in those cases the extension could actually cost you more money. Players don't always continue to improve.

 

Well in Romero's case, he didn't have a history of dominance in his minors career, with terrible control problems, and his 2011 was very much a case BABIP luck. Stroman has a history of dominance throughout his minors career with elite K/BB rates and great FIPs, the risk of it disappearing in his prime years in the majors is not particularly high.

 

Matt Moore, on the other hand, was a significant drop off from elite level potential, but that exception shouldn't deter a Stroman signing imo.

[BigCecil]

Well in Romero's case, he didn't have a history of dominance in his minors career, with terrible control problems, and his 2011 was very much a case BABIP luck. Stroman has a history of dominance throughout his minors career with elite K/BB rates and great FIPs, the risk of it disappearing in his prime years in the majors is not particularly high.

 

Matt Moore, on the other hand, was a significant drop off from elite level potential, but that exception shouldn't deter a Stroman signing imo.

 

Fair comment. Its really all about evaluating risk. I was looking for some AA quotes (not that he speaks the gospel on this subject) on this issue that I thought were interesting from last year on this topic. But I cant find them.

[tpurewal97]

Hoping he's not done , cuz this offseason has been anything but good for the jays

[burlingtonbandit]

Well in Romero's case, he didn't have a history of dominance in his minors career, with terrible control problems, and his 2011 was very much a case BABIP luck. Stroman has a history of dominance throughout his minors career with elite K/BB rates and great FIPs, the risk of it disappearing in his prime years in the majors is not particularly high.

 

Matt Moore, on the other hand, was a significant drop off from elite level potential, but that exception shouldn't deter a Stroman signing imo.

 

Yeah this is my stance on it. I feel Stroman is only going to become more valuable and his price will go up. Better to sign him now before before his value even goes higher. Stroman checks off all the boxes of a pitcher you want to extend (great athlete, track record of performance, command, great teammate, elite make up, clean injury history on arm etc..)

[thatoneguy]

Hoping he's not done , cuz this offseason has been anything but good for the jays

 

Tell us how you really feel.

[BigCecil]

Yeah this is my stance on it. I feel Stroman is only going to become more valuable and his price will go up. Better to sign him now before before his value even goes higher. Stroman checks off all the boxes of a pitcher you want to extend (great athlete, track record of performance, command, great teammate, elite make up, clean injury history on arm etc..)

 

If there are reasonable terms on the table, it will happen with this mgm group.

[Followthelight]

Hoping he's not done , cuz this offseason has been anything but good for the jays

 

In fairness they have the best lineup in baseball returning so they didn;t have to do a lot, payroll constraints means mid tier signings.

[Slugger]

It's unfortunate that bottom 1/3 starters cost this much now, but this is also the reality of playing in Toronto. Happ is decent and has already played here, making it more likely that he'd sign over someone like the biggest hick in the league in Zimmermann. 3 years seems like 1 too many and guys don't like Happ because he isn't attractive or have a sexy delivery, but hey...

[Nafro]

I'm liking the Happ and Estrada signings more and more as this winter goes on. Estrada is a short term solution and fills a hole we had. Happ is basically our replacement for RA Dickey in 2017 and 2018, though I don't believe he'll provide Dickey's value.

 

Holy s***-f***. I did not realize J.A. Happ had a WAR last season of 3.3. That means next year we have Happ at 10 million who provided a 3.3 War. Marco Estrada at 11.5 Million who provided 1.8 WAR. Jesse Chavez at approx. 4.3 million who provided 2.3 WAR. That's 7.4 WAR in those three players for 25.3 million. David Price is getting 31 Million and he provided 6.4 WAR. Very interesting indeed. Now I understand you can't just take three players WAR add it up and compare it to one player, but I just did, and it made me feel a whole lot better about our off-season.

[BTS]

Now consider that WAR undervalues Estrada and feel even better!

[Muck Bartinez]

Now consider that WAR undervalues Estrada and feel even better!

 

I feel great reading this! Also, I am typing with my left hand and sitting on my right, which means I'm about to be visited by "the stanger," making me feel even better!

[Laika]

Now I understand you can't just take three players WAR add it up and compare it to one player, but I just did, and it made me feel a whole lot better about our off-season.

 

lol

[Grant77]

Now consider that WAR undervalues Estrada and feel even better!

 

Why the change of heart?

[SAAviour]

So, Happ @ 3/36 or Leake @ 5/80.

I'll take Happ. Could be the deal of the off season.

[G-Snarls]

So, Happ @ 3/36 or Leake @ 5/80.

I'll take Happ. Could be the deal of the off season.

 

Could be

 

Even if he's just so so (1-2 WAR) the contract is fine

 

If he pulls another 2015 season out of his hat, it's bonus

[DuckDuckGose]

Happ has Leake beat in terms of skill, AAV and contract length plus he's a lefty

[Puppy]

Very good

 

With Jays offence backing it up he can be effective

[SAAviour]

Bump

 

I still vote good signing.

I can't find if I made an Estrada poll?

[Brownie19]

There's more than a few indicators suggesting Happ's been lucky so far and will not be as effective as he's been so far moving forward (high LOB%, low BABIP). His K/9 has taken a MASSIVE dip from what it was in his 18 great starts in Pittsburgh last year (where it was over 9). By all indications, he's nowhere near the pitcher we were "hoping" to get following the mechanical/approach changes that were apparently made in Pittsburgh last year.

 

Side note - by searching "happ" on fangraphs, I just realised Billy Chappelle (For Love of the Game) was an actual pitcher. Threw for the Doves and the Tip-Tops (whoever the F they are) back at the turn of the century.

[Cyborg]

There's more than a few indicators suggesting Happ's been lucky so far and will not be as effective as he's been so far moving forward (high LOB%, low BABIP). His K/9 has taken a MASSIVE dip from what it was in his 18 great starts in Pittsburgh last year (where it was over 9). By all indications, he's nowhere near the pitcher we were "hoping" to get following the mechanical/approach changes that were apparently made in Pittsburgh last year.

 

Side note - by searching "happ" on fangraphs, I just realised Billy Chappelle (For Love of the Game) was an actual pitcher. Threw for the Doves and the Tip-Tops (whoever the F they are) back at the turn of the century.

Happ may be getting unlucky with the K's though. His SwStr% is higher than last year.

[Brownie19]

Happ may be getting unlucky with the K's though. His SwStr% is higher than last year.

 

SwStr% with Pittsburgh last year was 9.9....it's only 8.8 with the Jays. His fastball was significantly more valuable with Pittsburgh than it is so far this year (or with the M's last year)...and of course he's gone from throwing 5% 2-seamers with Pittsburgh last year to throwing 2-seamers 20% of the time with the Jays because da-gotter-pidch-tw-contact ******** (*assumption).

 

Seriously....guy pitches UNREAL in Pittsburgh last year. Based on that success, wouldn't you do everything you could to replicate the pitch choice & sequencing? I mean maybe it doesn't translate or work...but I'd start there first. Where is the common sense? Happ's been fine, but it's evident he's nowhere nearly as effective as he was in Pittsburgh last year. I sure hope to god that isn't because the Jays tried to change his approach.

[Frenchsoup]

SwStr% with Pittsburgh last year was 9.9....it's only 8.8 with the Jays. His fastball was significantly more valuable with Pittsburgh than it is so far this year (or with the M's last year)...and of course he's gone from throwing 5% 2-seamers with Pittsburgh last year to throwing 2-seamers 20% of the time with the Jays because da-gotter-pidch-tw-contact ******** (*assumption).

 

Seriously....guy pitches UNREAL in Pittsburgh last year. Based on that success, wouldn't you do everything you could to replicate the pitch choice & sequencing? I mean maybe it doesn't translate or work...but I'd start there first. Where is the common sense? Happ's been fine, but it's evident he's nowhere nearly as effective as he was in Pittsburgh last year. I sure hope to god that isn't because the Jays tried to change his approach.

 

Chill

[glory]

Pete Walker ain't having any of that strike out ********.

 

Pitch to contact or die.

[Boxcar]

SwStr% with Pittsburgh last year was 9.9....it's only 8.8 with the Jays. His fastball was significantly more valuable with Pittsburgh than it is so far this year (or with the M's last year)...and of course he's gone from throwing 5% 2-seamers with Pittsburgh last year to throwing 2-seamers 20% of the time with the Jays because da-gotter-pidch-tw-contact ******** (*assumption).

 

Seriously....guy pitches UNREAL in Pittsburgh last year. Based on that success, wouldn't you do everything you could to replicate the pitch choice & sequencing? I mean maybe it doesn't translate or work...but I'd start there first. Where is the common sense? Happ's been fine, but it's evident he's nowhere nearly as effective as he was in Pittsburgh last year. I sure hope to god that isn't because the Jays tried to change his approach.

 

I'm kinda confused as to why Shapiro and Atkins seem so passive about this. I wouldn't expect them to support this way of thinking.

[baloojayz]

Happ has been solid. I was in the same boat as Sid Seixeiro at the time of signing, looked like an AJ Burnett/ too small sample size with the Pirates/ NL etc.

[KingKat]

Happ is a solid signing. He doesn't have to be Pittsburgh Happ for that (though obviously we'd all like for him to try and recreate his greatest success). Happ and Estrada didn't cost picks or require long term commitments. They could be perfectly average pitchers and the signings would make sense just as a way to eat innings and give the offense a chance. Anything beyond that is gravy.