Blue Jays sign J.A. Happ 3-years $36M

[Atothe]

Steamer projections for our rotation next year:

 

Stroman: 3.4

Happ: 1.9

Dickey: 1.1 (Mind you, knuckleballer may have better value than FIP shows)

Chavez: 2.0

Estrada: 0.6

 

Plus, Hutch: 1.4

 

There may not be another terrific SP after Stroman, but at least there's depth.

I'll take the over on Estrada and Dickey

[Frag]

Estrada also probably has better value than that. It's a nice rotation.

 

I think so, too. Somewhere around 1.5 WAR seems reasonable. Steamer is taking into account his -0.1 year.

[King]

Edwin pretty much = Colabello for a fraction the cost.

 

Lolwut

[BTS]

Edwin pretty much = Colabello for a fraction the cost.

 

Mods

[gbill2004]

Lolwut

 

Colabello would put up a better average that Edwin and probably 25 HRs over a full season playing full-time.

[BTS]

I'll take the over on Estrada and Dickey

 

Yeah, plus the Dickey effect.

[King]

Colabello would put up a better average that Edwin and probably 25 HRs over a full season playing full-time.

 

Mods

[gbill2004]

Mods

 

I'm not wrong, and very nice comeback...tattle-tale. Are we in grade two?

[Grant77]

I actually don't think AA had much interest in free agency. He kept talking about how he preferred the trade route. I personally love dipping into the low-mid tier part of the pool.

 

Maybe not a ton of interest, but I think he would have added pieces here and there if given the option (ie. same salary as signing team). The trade route philosophy surely had at least something to do with lukewarm FA interest.

[Atothe]

I'm not wrong, and very nice comeback...tattle-tale. Are we in grade two?

 

You're very wrong. Pitchers will pick apart Cola this year. Watch.

[KingKat]

I'm not wrong, and very nice comeback...tattle-tale. Are we in grade two?

 

To say that Cola and Edwin are the same is to put extraordinary faith in Cola's career year.

[Frag]

Cola is still a decent hitter even after regressing his wOBA (it would be somewhere around 0.330 wOBA). Still, even if he somehow doesn't regress, the comparison is silly.

[Atothe]

Funny everyone is attributing this to Shapiro. I guarantee it was the Jays staff who wanted this to happen. AA & Co. have always liked Happ. They were probably scouting him heavily down the stretch last year in anticipation of his pending free agency. This is a guy our management targeted, I'm sure.

 

Just like how they said they wanted Chavez at the deadline. They probably made a good and smart case to Shapiro, detailing Happ's upside, which everyone still refuses to acknowledge, and Shapiro signed off.

 

Everyone should feel comfortable with this signing. Our pro scouting is pretty solid. They don't miss very often on guys they think have talent.

 

Or you could just look at the numbers he had with PIT and realize something changed because it's pretty much impossible to just randomly start striking out 10 per 9.

 

Its been acknowledged but should not be taken as gospel

[Orgfiller]

Edwin pretty much = Colabello for a fraction the cost.

 

Colabello would put up a better average that Edwin and probably 25 HRs over a full season playing full-time.

 

Holy s***. This is truly where the mods have to step in.

[GD]

Funny everyone is attributing this to Shapiro. I guarantee it was the Jays staff who wanted this to happen. AA & Co. have always liked Happ. They were probably scouting him heavily down the stretch last year in anticipation of his pending free agency. This is a guy our management targeted, I'm sure.

 

Just like how they said they wanted Chavez at the deadline. They probably made a good and smart case to Shapiro, detailing Happ's upside, which everyone still refuses to acknowledge, and Shapiro signed off.

 

Everyone should feel comfortable with this signing. Our pro scouting is pretty solid. They don't miss very often on guys they think have talent.

 

Or you could just look at the numbers he had with PIT and realize something changed because it's pretty much impossible to just randomly start striking out 10 per 9.

 

 

Should've signed Rich Hill then!

[ElNik2013]

The one thing that bugs me is that people understand this now, but they bitched about it for years under AA and JP. Ten years between Burnett and Happ surely wasn't by design under 2 different regimes. I'm not trying to compare the GM's or anything, what's done is done, but it's really been a double standard so far. I'm glad that fans are finally getting a better understanding of the challenges of being a GM here.

 

People still think that it's not true that AA pursued Anibal Sanchez prior to moving onto pursuing a trade for Jake Peavy and then Josh Johnson.

 

We can assume they pursued other FA targets and were told there was no mutual interest. I really don't know why we shouldn't, other than biases against the guy.

[BigCecil]

Edwin pretty much = Colabello for a fraction the cost.

 

Lol. Nice troll.

[GD]

I would have signed Rich Hill.

 

Same.

 

Joe Blanton still out there though

[GD]

Lol. Nice troll.

 

It's DH12. There's no hope anymore, just don't respond.

[gbill2004]

Lol. Nice troll.

I guess you guys don't understand how a GM thinks. Let's see: Edwin @ $10 million per season or Cola @ $500k and under control for a few more years. Then look what you could do with that $10 million to improve the team if you remove Edwin. The value of Cola is huge as a replacement for Edwin, if you look at the bigger picture.

[Spanky99]

Edwin pretty much = Colabello for a fraction the cost.

 

What in the f***?

[BallsDeep]

I guess you guys don't understand how a GM thinks. Let's see: Edwin @ $10 million per season or Cola @ $500k and under control for a few more years. Then look what you could do with that $10 million to improve the team if you remove Edwin. The value of Cola is huge as a replacement for Edwin, if you look at the bigger picture.

 

Find me a free agent set to make 10 million who will be > Edwin.

[BTS]

I guess you guys don't understand how a GM thinks. Let's see: Edwin @ $10 million per season or Cola @ $500k and under control for a few more years. Then look what you could do with that $10 million to improve the team if you remove Edwin. The value of Cola is huge as a replacement for Edwin, if you look at the bigger picture.

 

Edwin is like 35% better than Cola offensively.

[Olerud363]

I guess you guys don't understand how a GM thinks. Let's see: Edwin @ $10 million per season or Cola @ $500k and under control for a few more years. Then look what you could do with that $10 million to improve the team if you remove Edwin. The value of Cola is huge as a replacement for Edwin, if you look at the bigger picture.

 

Edwin .270 .360 .500 hitter, 33 years old, Cola .250 .320 .450 hitter.... 32 years old

 

The difference between them is significant... Cola=replacement... Edwin is projected for 3 wins.

 

The upgrade from Cola to Edwin is worth 10 million... maybe 15-20 million depending on how you value wins.

 

Cola is a nice story but he is not really a .320 hitter... I mean you don't think he is really a .320 hitter do you?? Nobody else does, I don't think, not the people or the machines.

[Spanky99]

It's DH12. There's no hope anymore, just don't respond.

 

Oh... that makes sense.

[gbill2004]

Edwin is like 35% better than Cola offensively.

That's fair but Cola makes a fraction of what Edwin makes. That's where Cola's huge value kicks in. It's called asset management and critical for a team like a Jays under a tight budget.

[gbill2004]

Edwin .270 .360 .500 hitter, 33 years old, Cola .250 .320 .450 hitter.... 32 years old

 

The difference between them is significant... Cola=replacement... Edwin is projected for 3 wins.

 

The upgrade from Cola to Edwin is worth 10 million... maybe 15-20 million depending on how you value wins.

 

Cola is a nice story but he is not really a .320 hitter... I mean you don't think he is really a .320 hitter do you?? Nobody else does, I don't think, not the people or the machines.

In this lineup with the protection he gets, Cola could easily be a .300 hitter and 25 HR player.

[gbill2004]

Oh... that makes sense.

What's DH12 mean?

[BallsDeep]

In this lineup with the protection he gets, Cola could easily be a .300 hitter and 25 HR player.

 

lol.

[Olerud363]

In this lineup with the protection he gets, Cola could easily be a .300 hitter and 25 HR player.

To quote NJH "this is drivel" (my gripe with NJH is just that he often doesn't explain why things are drivel)

 

Let's say that Cola has great hitters in front of and behind him. The pitchers will have incentive to use a pitching pattern to him that

 

a) will keep him from driving in runs

will keep him from being on base for the next guy

 

Giving him fastballs down the middle, that will allow him to hit .300 with 25 homers will accomplish nothing for the opposing team.

 

Cola is a lifetime .265 hitter, 20 homer guy (per 162)... there is no reason for the pitchers to ever give him meatballs and let him hit .300 with 25 homers. If Cola is in the middle of a great line-up, the only ptiching strategy that makes sense, is the same one they've always used, that has led to him being a .265 .320 .430 guy.