FanGraphs contract crowdsourcing is done

[Brownie19]

Well most prospects who are initially put in the bullpen have struggled as starters so that doesn't tell you a whole lot. Osuna on the other hand has never been given a chance to fail. I honestly think he should be untouchable or close to it. The kind of skills he's displayed at age 20(a young 20 too), you gotta roll the dice and see what he does instead of presuming he's at his "peak"

 

I'm not sure that's true. You're saying most prospects are given a chance to start and then put in the pen when they fail as a starter....after dominating as a pen arm, they are put back in the rotation? Is that what you're saying? I don't think that happens too much......nor is that what I was saying.

 

 

I'm saying relievers turned starters get injured more and have poor results. To be honest, the article may have been looking at converted relievers in their 2nd season as a starter....I think it says they generally do well in their first year - but the results fall off the table in year 2 of the conversion. I read the article like 3-4 years ago.....little fuzzy.

[nmrch]

Cecil was awful early on before he tweaked his mechanics...removing him from the closers role was the right move. Inserting Castro....apparently was not, although obviously putting Osuna there was and it's hard to really blame Gibby for giving Castro a shot - especially when you see how successful Osuna was.

 

Cecil had 17K's and 4 BB's in 15 innings in the months of April and May. He was not awful. He did surrender 3 homeruns but that could just be explained by the normal variance in HR/FB rate. Osuna had 25K's and 7BB's in 25 2/3 innings. They both had similar ratios. But the difference was Osuna's homerun "problems" came later in the season when he surrendered 4 in September.

[nmrch]

I'm not sure that's true. You're saying most prospects are given a chance to start and then put in the pen when they fail as a starter....after dominating as a pen arm, they are put back in the rotation? Is that what you're saying? I don't think that happens too much......nor is that what I was saying.

 

 

I'm saying relievers turned starters get injured more and have poor results. To be honest, the article may have been looking at converted relievers in their 2nd season as a starter....I think it says they generally do well in their first year - but the results fall off the table in year 2 of the conversion. I read the article like 3-4 years ago.....little fuzzy.

 

I'm saying that most prospects who begin their careers in teh bullpen are failed starters in the minor leagues, e.g Dellin Betances . Teams sometimes see their bullpen success as an indication of improved skill and not the fact that pitching in the bullpen is easier. So they might give guys a chance to start and many of them fail. That explains most cases where guys who were initially in the bullpen fail as a starters when they get promoted. Osuna on the other hand is not a failed starter, anywhere.

[burlingtonbandit]

Cecil had 17K's and 4 BB's in 15 innings in the months of April and May. He was not awful. He did surrender 3 homeruns but that could just be explained by the normal variance in HR/FB rate. Osuna had 25K's and 7BB's in 25 2/3 innings. They both had similar ratios. But the difference was Osuna's homerun "problems" came later in the season when he surrendered 4 in September.

 

Cecil's problems were in June when he walked a guy an inning. He was closing in June IIRC but lost the job to Osuna. Cecil in the 2nd half more specifically September was just downright filthy.

[BTS]

Cecil had 17K's and 4 BB's in 15 innings in the months of April and May. He was not awful. He did surrender 3 homeruns but that could just be explained by the normal variance in HR/FB rate. Osuna had 25K's and 7BB's in 25 2/3 innings. They both had similar ratios. But the difference was Osuna's homerun "problems" came later in the season when he surrendered 4 in September.

 

Was going to post this. Cecil finished May with a sub-3 xFIP. From day one this year he was the same old Cecil, only a lot was made of his 'struggles' because Gibby inexplicably pulled him from the closer's spot a couple innings into his season.

[nmrch]

Cecil's problems were in June when he walked a guy an inning. He was closing in June IIRC but lost the job to Osuna. Cecil in the 2nd half more specifically September was just downright filthy.

 

He first lost his job 4 days into the season. Someone mentioned he was awful early and he wasn't.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/04/09/jays-turn-castro-as-closer-demoting-cecil

[glory]

Man this thread is reminding me why I was rooting for AA and Gibbons to leave for good. Half way there.

[art_vandelay275]

It was partly bad because of Alex's(and Gibby's) own making, by demoting relievers based on one appearance(Cecil) and putting faith in a guy like Castro when it was apparent he wasn't even ready for A+ ball let alone the big leagues. BTW, Hendricks was consistent all season and if i remember correctly either put up similar or better numbers than Osuna. And also if you remember we flat out let a couple of relievers go on waivers when there was a good reason to believe they could have helped us, over a guy like Castro.

 

There is no doubt that Osuna is more valuable as a starter for all the reasons stated. But we had BP/stopper issues and we basically threw everything at it and nothing stuck. The real issue goes back to the off-season where we knew we needed help. For a variety of reasons, saving funds for the trade deadline, signing Martin, etc, AA chose not to do anything with the BP. The BP did not stabilize until Osuna emerged - and it was after several iterations at that.

 

Wishing Osuna was a starter/developing in minors and thinking now that we could have solved our early season BP issues without him is "having our cake and eating it too". If AA had done something in the off-season, then maybe but he chose not to

[burlingtonbandit]

Was going to post this. Cecil finished May with a sub-3 xFIP. From day one this year he was the same old Cecil, only a lot was made of his 'struggles' because Gibby inexplicably pulled him from the closer's spot a couple innings into his season.

 

lol look at the June numbers... Obviously wasn't the same. Also Cecil seems more valuable in the setup role/high leverage role so its better that he was in that role at the end of the season.

[Orgfiller]

lol look at the June numbers... Obviously wasn't the same. Also Cecil seems more valuable in the setup role/high leverage role so its better that he was in that role at the end of the season.

 

Cecil, like any other elite reliever, is most valuable by putting him in high-leverage situations. Whether this is in the 9th, 8th, 7th, etc. inning is irrelevant. Cecil was absolutely dominant when put in the toughest spots in the game.

[jays_fever]

Is there an argument to me made though that the set up role is more valuable than the traditional closer role? Id rather have our best reliever come in the 7th or 8th with runners on than start the 9th, especially with a 3 run lead

[AdamGreenwood]

There is no doubt that Osuna is more valuable as a starter for all the reasons stated. But we had BP/stopper issues and we basically threw everything at it and nothing stuck. The real issue goes back to the off-season where we knew we needed help. For a variety of reasons, saving funds for the trade deadline, signing Martin, etc, AA chose not to do anything with the BP. The BP did not stabilize until Osuna emerged - and it was after several iterations at that.

 

Wishing Osuna was a starter/developing in minors and thinking now that we could have solved our early season BP issues without him is "having our cake and eating it too". If AA had done something in the off-season, then maybe but he chose not to

 

Not every pitcher is more valuable as a starter than as a reliever.

Yes, if they pitch with the exact same ratios for 200 IP isntead of 55 IP, that's better.

 

But invariably, relievers do not pitch as well when they become starters, and starters pitch better when they become relievers.

This is largely because they only face hitters one time through, so no batter gets a second chance against the pitcher.

[BTS]

Is their an argument to me made though that the set up role is more valuable than the traditional closer role? Id rather have our best reliever come in the 7th or 8th with runners on than start the 9th, especially with a 3 run lead

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

 

2015 reliever leaders in gmLi (leverage index when they enter a game). For most teams, it's still the closer that sees the highest leverage innings.

 

Also, lol @ Liam Hendriks ranked 118 of 137.

[KingKat]

Is there an argument to me made though that the set up role is more valuable than the traditional closer role? Id rather have our best reliever come in the 7th or 8th with runners on than start the 9th, especially with a 3 run lead

 

There's an argument for sure. Leverage is about the same in both roles but some teams give their setup guy a lot more innings. Since Gibbers usually uses his setup guy as a strict 8th inning guy, it's pretty much a wash.

[Abomination]

This is largely because they only face hitters one time through, so no batter gets a second chance against the pitcher.

 

Not to mention that most see a pretty large jump in velocity out of the pen.

[BTS]

Miguel Castro gmLi = 1.55

Brett Cecil = 1.22

Liam Hendriks = 0.84

 

Come on Gibby

[L54]

I'd expect nothing less from Gibby. Australians don't baseball.

[Brownie19]

Cecil had 17K's and 4 BB's in 15 innings in the months of April and May. He was not awful. He did surrender 3 homeruns but that could just be explained by the normal variance in HR/FB rate. Osuna had 25K's and 7BB's in 25 2/3 innings. They both had similar ratios. But the difference was Osuna's homerun "problems" came later in the season when he surrendered 4 in September.

 

Interesting - well I guess advanced stats prove me wrong. I do thing visually, there was a massive difference in early Cecil vs. late season Cecil....and the ACTUAL results back that up.

[Brownie19]

I'm saying that most prospects who begin their careers in teh bullpen are failed starters in the minor leagues, e.g Dellin Betances . Teams sometimes see their bullpen success as an indication of improved skill and not the fact that pitching in the bullpen is easier. So they might give guys a chance to start and many of them fail. That explains most cases where guys who were initially in the bullpen fail as a starters when they get promoted. Osuna on the other hand is not a failed starter, anywhere.

 

I don't know if that's true.

 

Neftal Feliz

Osuna

Buehrle

Wacha

Wainwright

Carlos Martinez

Lynn

Price

David Wells

Sale

Shark

C.J. Wilson

 

 

Those are the names I came up with in like 30 seconds. All were starters in the minors who were brought up as relievers and then converted. Now I'll admit - I've remembered most of the ones who did it successfully. Personally, I don't think teams convert guys like Betances into a reliever...watch him dominate in that role and then try and switch him back...I don't think that happens as much as you do.

[Spanky99]

Man this thread is reminding me why I was rooting for AA and Gibbons to leave for good. Half way there.

 

Man, I wish Gibbons was removed, just so I don't have to read you post about Gibbons anymore.

[art_vandelay275]

Man, I wish Gibbons was removed, just so I don't have to read you post about Gibbons anymore.

 

in the introductory presser, just before MS announced gibby would stay he said something to the effect "i don't know why there would even be questions ..."

 

and then in an interview with campbell, campbell made the mistake of saying "gibby will be your manager to start the season" at which MS corrected him and stated that's not what he said

 

sure hope all this of this is some showmanship by MS so that he can let the new GM give gibby the boot...

[Spanky99]

in the introductory presser, just before MS announced gibby would stay he said something to the effect "i don't know why there would even be questions ..."

 

and then in an interview with campbell, campbell made the mistake of saying "gibby will be your manager to start the season" at which MS corrected him and stated that's not what he said

 

sure hope all this of this is some showmanship by MS so that he can let the new GM give gibby the boot...

 

Uhmm... that wasn't my point.

[Cyborg]

Was going to post this. Cecil finished May with a sub-3 xFIP. From day one this year he was the same old Cecil, only a lot was made of his 'struggles' because Gibby inexplicably pulled him from the closer's spot a couple innings into his season.

He was definitely not the same Cecil. Velo was way down.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2660&position=P&pitch=FA

Good preemptive measure to remove him from leverage, just put the wrong guy in it.

[GD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

 

2015 reliever leaders in gmLi (leverage index when they enter a game). For most teams, it's still the closer that sees the highest leverage innings.

 

Also, lol @ Liam Hendriks ranked 118 of 137.

 

Doing a study on this