Beeston: " AA Not Irreplaceable..."

[leaffie]

You guys are all talking like Shapiro is the next coming. Even with more money, there is no guarantee that he will turn the Jays into a team that contends every year. The Jays are in a division that always contends with the payrolls of the Sox and the Yankees. Cleveland while working with a much smaller payroll, did not go the Rays route, and draft very well. So that is on Shapiro.

 

You constantly judge AA on the Marlins trade projecting what those prospects are going to be three years down the road. They are only projections. Personally, I think AA was on the right road, and then pressure came from somewhere, thus the Dickey etc. trades. The pressure got more intense, and while he had mostly rebuilt the farm, he went all in and used the top layers for this year and probably next year's run.

 

From the excitement, ticket and gear sales, I would say he was successful. I think it would be a terrible mistake for Shapiro to let AA go. Not because he is walking on water right now. But because of what it will do to the image that this club is trying to build. You always talk about the casuals, but it was them that filled the seats at the dome.

 

AA can be rehired, given a contract to his liking and if things don't go well, he can be fired, just like every other manager in mlb.

[glory]

Thought it would be interesting to take a quick and dirty look into the Marlins trade 3 years later because it's come up a lot over the last few days. Assuming a flat 7M/win over the three years because it's close enough.

 

In

Buehrle = 8.4 RA-9 WAR, 43.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Reyes = 6.2 fWAR, 48M salary = -4.6M surplus value (through 2015)

Johnson = 0.4 fWAR, 13.8M salary = -11M surplus value

Bonifacio = who cares

Buck = who cares

 

total surplus value acquired = about 0M.

 

Out

Escobar = 5.6 fWAR, 15M salary = 24.2M surplus value

Alvarez = 4.2 fWAR, 6M salary = 25.2M surplus value

Desclafani = 3.3 fWAR, 1M salary = 22.1M surplus value

Marisnick = 2.4 fWAR, 1.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Hechavarria = 1 fWAR, ~4.25 salary = 2.75M surplus value (with pretty dubious defensive metrics)

Nicolino = who cares

Mathis = who cares

 

total surplus value traded = about 90M + whatever Alvarez, Desclafani, Hechavarria, and Marisnick accrue over their remaining years of team control.

 

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

 

Yep, and that deal subsequently lead to the Dickey trade (a trade that likely would not have happened if the Marlins trade didn't set the wheels in motion).

 

If there was ever a franchise changing off-season, that was it. To AA's credit, he got something out of this group by having a better off-season in 2015, but man did he sacrifice a bunch of long-term value in the process.

[TheHurl]

Thought it would be interesting to take a quick and dirty look into the Marlins trade 3 years later because it's come up a lot over the last few days. Assuming a flat 7M/win over the three years because it's close enough.

 

In

Buehrle = 8.4 RA-9 WAR, 43.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Reyes = 6.2 fWAR, 48M salary = -4.6M surplus value (through 2015)

Johnson = 0.4 fWAR, 13.8M salary = -11M surplus value

Bonifacio = who cares

Buck = who cares

 

total surplus value acquired = about 0M.

 

Out

Escobar = 5.6 fWAR, 15M salary = 24.2M surplus value

Alvarez = 4.2 fWAR, 6M salary = 25.2M surplus value

Desclafani = 3.3 fWAR, 1M salary = 22.1M surplus value

Marisnick = 2.4 fWAR, 1.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Hechavarria = 1 fWAR, ~4.25 salary = 2.75M surplus value (with pretty dubious defensive metrics)

Nicolino = who cares

Mathis = who cares

 

total surplus value traded = about 90M + whatever Alvarez, Desclafani, Hechavarria, and Marisnick accrue over their remaining years of team control.

 

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

 

Hard to believe that I probably underestimated the value lost, considering I was probably just being overly critical and thinking worst case scenario.

[TheHurl]

You guys are all talking like Shapiro is the next coming. Even with more money, there is no guarantee that he will turn the Jays into a team that contends every year.

 

No but word is that Shapiro is going to bring in systems, some saber and player analysis, some training, some medical. While we'll probably never see if these work, it's ridiculous how few major league teams don't invest in this aspect. If I were a fan (and 50% of my most hated duo is out), I'd be a lot happier about the place the Jays are headed long term.

[GD]

You guys are all talking like Shapiro is the next coming. Even with more money, there is no guarantee that he will turn the Jays into a team that contends every year. The Jays are in a division that always contends with the payrolls of the Sox and the Yankees. Cleveland while working with a much smaller payroll, did not go the Rays route, and draft very well. So that is on Shapiro.

 

You constantly judge AA on the Marlins trade projecting what those prospects are going to be three years down the road. They are only projections. Personally, I think AA was on the right road, and then pressure came from somewhere, thus the Dickey etc. trades. The pressure got more intense, and while he had mostly rebuilt the farm, he went all in and used the top layers for this year and probably next year's run.

 

From the excitement, ticket and gear sales, I would say he was successful. I think it would be a terrible mistake for Shapiro to let AA go. Not because he is walking on water right now. But because of what it will do to the image that this club is trying to build. You always talk about the casuals, but it was them that filled the seats at the dome.

 

AA can be rehired, given a contract to his liking and if things don't go well, he can be fired, just like every other manager in mlb.

 

No. The trade is already a loss.

[Slugger]

Can someone please explain some of the major differences between Shapiro and Beestan we'll see within the first few months on the job?

[o2cui2i]

Can someone please explain some of the major differences between Shapiro and Beestan we'll see within the first few months on the job?

 

beeston= MBA with bad hair

Shapiro= legit baseball guy who believes in a advanced stats

 

 

?

[Slugger]

beeston= MBA with bad hair

Shapiro= legit baseball guy who believes in a advanced stats

 

 

?

 

Okay, I know that. I was hoping for some subtle stuff some of us might not be aware of. I have a decent understanding of how he does business, but there's no way I know as much as a Clevlend fan.

[Spanky99]

No. The trade is already a loss.

 

Who cares man, whats done is f***ing done, get over it folks. He re established the farm and drew us two f***ing games from the WS!

 

Edit: All entailed, Leaffie is right!

 

Whether it was wrong or right, AA made it right!!

[Spanky99]

Self admitted, the man said he made mistakes, who doesn't in his position, I think he stepped up like a boss!!!

[art_vandelay275]

Who cares man, whats done is f***ing done, get over it folks. He re established the farm and drew us two f***ing games from the WS!

 

Edit: All entailed, Leaffie is right!

 

Whether it was wrong or right, AA made it right!!

 

FINALLY!!! someone get this f***in thing back on track

 

For those who are glad to see AA out the door, it'll be another Farrell all over again - a guy learns his craft here in TO and when he finally gets it, he takes his skills elsewhere... yeah sort of like TO is the pre-show for THE show ....

[Spanky99]

FINALLY!!! someone get this f***in thing back on track

 

For those who are glad to see AA out the door, it'll be another Farrell all over again - a guy learns his craft here in TO and when he finally gets it, he takes his skills elsewhere... yeah sort of like TO is the pre-show for THE show ....

 

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_glYWlcLUSEE/TTMbkVwdlUI/AAAAAAAAAJs/gLczi580TcU/s1600/Wrestlemania-II_King-Kong-Bundy-bleeding.jpeg

[Krylian]

I guess Beeston did know something was up and was trying to soften the blow.

[204Jays]

f*** this is one of those situations were I was hoping my gut was wrong. Really sad to see AA leave. He will be on his feet in no time.