Beeston: " AA Not Irreplaceable..."

[Spanky99]

Not sure about this

 

Think he got offered more guaranteed cash from someone else

 

He did. Glory hating on AA and Gibbons as per usual.

[thatoneguy]

AA deserves credit for the Donaldson deal, but signing Martin involved paying him more than any other team was willing to and the Tulo/Price trades involved trading his two top pitching prospects + other pieces. The Dickey/Marlins trades were incredibly short-sighted/terrible, and despite his scouting team being able to identify talent in the draft, there doesn't appear to be any sort of structure in terms of how prospects are developed. On one hand you have Stroman getting AAA time, and on the other you have Sanchez reaching the Majors despite not pitching well at any level + Osuna/Castro jumping straight from A-ball to the Majors to fill bullpen spots, to Pompey jumping 3 levels in a year and getting 3 weeks under his belt to start 2015 before he's deemed unready, etc, etc, etc.

 

The Jays can definitely do better than AA, especially with Shapiro on board.

 

Oh for f*** sakes. Do you think he saw Josh Johnson blowing a gasket and basically ending his MLB career?

 

The Price and Tulo deals netted them a shot at a WS title this year (Tulo will most likely be sticking around), something this franchise dearly needed, so you can't start going into this nonsense when we just so happen to come up a bit short.

 

And the Martin point, yeah I'm not even going to touch that one.

[BTS]

Oh for f*** sakes. Do you think he saw Josh Johnson blowing a gasket and basically ending his MLB career?

 

The Price and Tulo deals netted them a shot at a WS title this year (Tulo will most likely be sticking around), something this franchise dearly needed, so you can't start going into this nonsense when we just so happen to come up a bit short.

 

And the Martin point, yeah I'm not even going to touch that one.

 

That was definitely a concern. Johnson was one of the biggest injury risks in the league.

[glory]

Oh for f*** sakes. Do you think he saw Josh Johnson blowing a gasket and basically ending his MLB career?

 

The Price and Tulo deals netted them a shot at a WS title this year (Tulo will most likely be sticking around), something this franchise dearly needed, so you can't start going into this nonsense when we just so happen to come up a bit short.

 

And the Martin point, yeah I'm not even going to touch that one.

 

Johnson's loss in velocity plus arm injury history was pretty darn extensive before the trade. Reyes and Buehrle had huge backloaded contracts that covered what should have been their declining years. Buehrle ended up holding up his performance, but Reyes fell off a cliff half way into his deal. Trading a $5m SS in Escobar plus Hechavarria in order to pay Reyes $80-something million was ridiculous. I'm sorry, that deal was s*** when it happened, and still is.

 

Trading what's left of the upper minors for two months of David Price and five years of Tulo's twilight isn't some major coup or anything. If Tulo has a couple of elite seasons left in him it will be worth it, but if he starts to decline like Reyes did at a similar age, it will look bad as well.

 

Again, nothing he did was "ninja" like except the Donaldson deal. He has a top 10 payroll in baseball and a team with a core in their 30's and no farm system above A-ball except Pompey. Props to him for ending the 22-year drought, but it's not like he's done something special.

[BigCecil]

Johnson's loss in velocity plus arm injury history was pretty darn extensive before the trade. Reyes and Buehrle had huge backloaded contracts that covered what should have been their declining years. Buehrle ended up holding up his performance, but Reyes fell off a cliff half way into his deal. Trading a $5m SS in Escobar plus Hechavarria in order to pay Reyes $80-something million was ridiculous. I'm sorry, that deal was s*** when it happened, and still is.

 

Trading what's left of the upper minors for two months of David Price and five years of Tulo's twilight isn't some major coup or anything. If Tulo has a couple of elite seasons left in him it will be worth it, but if he starts to decline like Reyes did at a similar age, it will look bad as well.

 

Again, nothing he did was "ninja" like except the Donaldson deal. He has a top 10 payroll in baseball and a team with a core in their 30's and no farm system above A-ball except Pompey. Props to him for ending the 22-year drought, but it's not like he's done something special.

 

Man, you are one glass half empty guy.

[Krylian]

Man, you are one glass half empty guy.

 

He threw the glass out years ago.

[GD]

Marlins deal was unquestionably a massive failure

[L54]

Not sure about this

 

Think he got offered more guaranteed cash from someone else

 

Not sure about this either. I thought the fifth year brought him to Toronto.

[Spanky99]

That was definitely a concern. Johnson was one of the biggest injury risks in the league.

 

He did pass his physical, just saying.

[BTS]

He did pass his physical, just saying.

 

That doesn't really mean anything.

[Spanky99]

That doesn't really mean anything.

 

Per se...

[Spanky99]

BTS you had a team Large boner after this deal... I know you hated the Dickey trade more, but your erection was stiff. You expected great things.

 

Regardless of lost value as you and Hurl posted.

 

Why hate now, when we came two games away from a WS?

 

Hasn't AA rectified his mistakes in a short period?

[glory]

Man, you are one glass half empty guy.

 

Not really. I want the team to succeed long-term. I just don't like when GM's undercut themselves by creating a short-term window rather than organically building a contender that has a chance to last for many years. I think Shapiro and whoever he hires is far more likely to build organically than go for broke. More than that, I think Shapiro can create a ground-up philosophy where everyone from the minors to the Majors to the scouting team is on the same wave length in terms of what to value.

 

Long story short, I wouldn't shed a tear if AA was let go or he left voluntarily.

[Slugger]

Johnson's loss in velocity plus arm injury history was pretty darn extensive before the trade. Reyes and Buehrle had huge backloaded contracts that covered what should have been their declining years. Buehrle ended up holding up his performance, but Reyes fell off a cliff half way into his deal. Trading a $5m SS in Escobar plus Hechavarria in order to pay Reyes $80-something million was ridiculous. I'm sorry, that deal was s*** when it happened, and still is.

 

Trading what's left of the upper minors for two months of David Price and five years of Tulo's twilight isn't some major coup or anything. If Tulo has a couple of elite seasons left in him it will be worth it, but if he starts to decline like Reyes did at a similar age, it will look bad as well.

 

Again, nothing he did was "ninja" like except the Donaldson deal. He has a top 10 payroll in baseball and a team with a core in their 30's and no farm system above A-ball except Pompey. Props to him for ending the 22-year drought, but it's not like he's done something special.

 

Wow.

 

You might as well kill yourself if this is your attitude.

 

I'll make that Tulo trade all day and the Price trade is debatable for now.

[BTS]

BTS you had a team Large boner after this deal... I know you hated the Dickey trade more, but your erection was stiff. You expected great things.

 

Regardless of lost value as you and Hurl posted.

 

Why hate now, when we came two games away from a WS?

 

You're suggesting that objective evaluation of past moves should be thrown out the window because the team had a 93-win season?

[glory]

Not sure about this

 

Think he got offered more guaranteed cash from someone else

 

From what I remember reading, no other team was willing to go five years. So he got more from the Jays than any other team offered him. Smart move as Martin is a great player, but just stating the facts.

[thatoneguy]

Trading what's left of the upper minors for two months of David Price and five years of Tulo's twilight isn't some major coup or anything. If Tulo has a couple of elite seasons left in him it will be worth it, but if he starts to decline like Reyes did at a similar age, it will look bad as well.

 

Again, nothing he did was "ninja" like except the Donaldson deal. He has a top 10 payroll in baseball and a team with a core in their 30's and no farm system above A-ball except Pompey. Props to him for ending the 22-year drought, but it's not like he's done something special.

 

I think you're underestimating just how important it was for the team to make a run this year, but whatever.

 

Besides any concerns about the level of baseball operations control between them, why (in your opinion) can't Shapiro and AA work together to put this franchise where it needs to be, both in the now and long term?

[glory]

Wow.

 

You might as well kill yourself if this is your attitude.

 

I'll make that Tulo trade all day and the Price trade is debatable for now.

 

Why are people equating "not liking moves" with "not enjoying the playoff run"? I enjoyed the heck out of the playoff run this year. Doesn't mean I agreed with the moves that got them there. Is that really so terrible? Wow.

[Spanky99]

You're suggesting that objective evaluation of past moves should be thrown out the window because the team had a 93-win season?

 

Not at all, just that you had a boner going into that season which left you phlacid.

 

AA has turned it up a notch and has left us 2 games shy of a WS, and you're still phlacid?

[BigCecil]

Not really. I want the team to succeed long-term. I just don't like when GM's undercut themselves by creating a short-term window rather than organically building a contender that has a chance to last for many years. I think Shapiro and whoever he hires is far more likely to build organically than go for broke.

 

I think we all want that. But its not an either/or deal. Watching 2 teams in the WS who made moves to bolster giving up assets to get Cespedes, Cueto and Zobrist etc. In essence we did some of this with guys like Edwin and Jose that other orgs gave up on that blossomed with the Jays and were signed to under market deals.

 

Travis, Pompey, Stro, Osuna, Pillar are all young assets under control that should all make solid contributions.

[Slugger]

Why are people equating "not liking moves" with "not enjoying the playoff run"? I enjoyed the heck out of the playoff run this year. Doesn't mean I agreed with the moves that got them there. Is that really so terrible? Wow.

 

No. But, I really believe the Marlins trade wasn't that devastating. Buerhle as you mentioned held up, and Reyes was a productive player in '14.

 

The Dickey trade of course was terrible, but I'm pretty tired of hearing about it.

[glory]

I think we all want that. But its not an either/or deal. Watching 2 teams in the WS who made moves to bolster giving up assets to get Cespedes, Cueto and Zobrist etc. In essence we did some of this with guys like Edwin and Jose that other orgs gave up on that blossomed with the Jays and were signed to under market deals.

 

Travis, Pompey, Stro, Osuna, Pillar are all young assets under control that should all make solid contributions.

 

The five best players on the team this past season were guys in their or very close to their 30's except for Pillar. The top 4 pitchers using WAR were Price (free agent), Buehrle (free agent/possibly retiring), Dickey (old as hell), and Estrada (free agent). All in their 30's or in Dickey's case 40's.

 

No doubt the team has some good young pieces. Travis put up a 2.3 WAR in half a season, and we got a few starts out of Stroman due to injury, so there are some pieces there that will help long-term. I just want to be like the Cardinals where if the Jays somehow lose someone, they can fill that spot either internally or have the pieces to trade for a replacement. Right now I see a team that should have a chance to do something good in 2016, but beyond that is a huge question mark. I want them to be a contender every single year to the point where if they don't make it one year it will be a minor setback rather than the start of another long drought.

[BigCecil]

The five best players on the team this past season were guys in their or very close to their 30's except for Pillar. The top 4 pitchers using WAR were Price (free agent), Buehrle (free agent/possibly retiring), Dickey (old as hell), and Estrada (free agent). All in their 30's or in Dickey's case 40's.

 

No doubt the team has some good young pieces. Travis put up a 2.3 WAR in half a season, and we got a few starts out of Stroman due to injury, so there are some pieces there that will help long-term. I just want to be like the Cardinals where if the Jays somehow lose someone, they can fill that spot either internally or have the pieces to trade for a replacement. Right now I see a team that should have a chance to do something good in 2016, but beyond that is a huge question mark. I want them to be a contender every single year to the point where if they don't make it one year it will be a minor setback rather than the start of another long drought.

 

You aren't alone. They have to cycle in some younger cheaper players. The BoSox did that this season and I think they will be tough next year. You mentioned the Cards. There are a small handful of teams. But as you know its not easy, especially in todays game, to build a perennial contender.

[Slugger]

The five best players on the team this past season were guys in their or very close to their 30's except for Pillar. The top 4 pitchers using WAR were Price (free agent), Buehrle (free agent/possibly retiring), Dickey (old as hell), and Estrada (free agent). All in their 30's or in Dickey's case 40's.

 

No doubt the team has some good young pieces. Travis put up a 2.3 WAR in half a season, and we got a few starts out of Stroman due to injury, so there are some pieces there that will help long-term. I just want to be like the Cardinals where if the Jays somehow lose someone, they can fill that spot either internally or have the pieces to trade for a replacement. Right now I see a team that should have a chance to do something good in 2016, but beyond that is a huge question mark. I want them to be a contender every single year to the point where if they don't make it one year it will be a minor setback rather than the start of another long drought.

 

All valid points.

[glory]

You aren't alone. They have to cycle in some younger cheaper players. The BoSox did that this season and I think they will be tough next year. You mentioned the Cards. There are a small handful of teams. But as you know its not easy, especially in todays game, to build a perennial contender.

 

Agreed. Then the question becomes, is AA the GM who can pull that off? That's where I disagree with those who defend him. AA is a GM who doesn't quite understand or care about the concept of options and service time (as witnessed by the roster to begin the season), and that's a very important part of building the type of team we all want. Instead of Osuna being in Double-A or AAA right now with a starter's workload and options remaining, they burned a year of his service clock and his options for 70+ big league innings out of the pen. It helped the team in 2015, but what about 2016-beyond? That's just one example.

 

I don't know. I just wouldn't be heartbroken if AA left. I like his "think big" mentality, but unless he fixes some of his glaring weaknesses, I think it's bound to catch up to him sooner than later. Maybe working with Shapiro will help him.

[BTS]

Thought it would be interesting to take a quick and dirty look into the Marlins trade 3 years later because it's come up a lot over the last few days. Assuming a flat 7M/win over the three years because it's close enough.

 

In

Buehrle = 8.4 RA-9 WAR, 43.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Reyes = 6.2 fWAR, 48M salary = -4.6M surplus value (through 2015)

Johnson = 0.4 fWAR, 13.8M salary = -11M surplus value

Bonifacio = who cares

Buck = who cares

 

total surplus value acquired = about 0M.

 

Out

Escobar = 5.6 fWAR, 15M salary = 24.2M surplus value

Alvarez = 4.2 fWAR, 6M salary = 25.2M surplus value

Desclafani = 3.3 fWAR, 1M salary = 22.1M surplus value

Marisnick = 2.4 fWAR, 1.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Hechavarria = 1 fWAR, ~4.25 salary = 2.75M surplus value (with pretty dubious defensive metrics)

Nicolino = who cares

Mathis = who cares

 

total surplus value traded = about 90M + whatever Alvarez, Desclafani, Hechavarria, and Marisnick accrue over their remaining years of team control.

 

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

[art_vandelay275]

Not really. I want the team to succeed long-term. I just don't like when GM's undercut themselves by creating a short-term window rather than organically building a contender that has a chance to last for many years. I think Shapiro and whoever he hires is far more likely to build organically than go for broke. More than that, I think Shapiro can create a ground-up philosophy where everyone from the minors to the Majors to the scouting team is on the same wave length in terms of what to value.

 

Long story short, I wouldn't shed a tear if AA was let go or he left voluntarily.

 

in a way i agree with the latter part but i think it's a bit unfair to say that AA should not have made those trades by "creating a short-term" window. we had JB/EE moving into their prime. we can hope that our prospects can make a significant contribution to overlap that window. u can argue either way whether if we had kept all of our prospects whether we would have been able to capitalize on JB/EE's prime. It's hindsight so the argument is moot

 

unless u were advocating back in '11 that we should just trade JB/EE - i.e. just blow everything up and be really bad for several years and hope you can rebuild; that's what the 'stros did and i guess it's some justification given the run they had; i don't know whether our FO is as smart/astute as theirs so i don't know if we could have pulled it off

 

the other risk of blowing things up and starting over is that you hope your fanbase will stick with it and will come back when the team is good again. here i don't know how much you can make a comparision between us and the 'stros - their ownership is a local businessman and ours is a media conglomerate; Rogers probably won't have the stomach for it

[Slugger]

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

 

Well...

 

When you lay it out like that.

[Laika]

Thought it would be interesting to take a quick and dirty look into the Marlins trade 3 years later because it's come up a lot over the last few days. Assuming a flat 7M/win over the three years because it's close enough.

 

In

Buehrle = 8.4 RA-9 WAR, 43.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Reyes = 6.2 fWAR, 48M salary = -4.6M surplus value (through 2015)

Johnson = 0.4 fWAR, 13.8M salary = -11M surplus value

Bonifacio = who cares

Buck = who cares

 

total surplus value acquired = about 0M.

 

Out

Escobar = 5.6 fWAR, 15M salary = 24.2M surplus value

Alvarez = 4.2 fWAR, 6M salary = 25.2M surplus value

Desclafani = 3.3 fWAR, 1M salary = 22.1M surplus value

Marisnick = 2.4 fWAR, 1.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Hechavarria = 1 fWAR, ~4.25 salary = 2.75M surplus value (with pretty dubious defensive metrics)

Nicolino = who cares

Mathis = who cares

 

total surplus value traded = about 90M + whatever Alvarez, Desclafani, Hechavarria, and Marisnick accrue over their remaining years of team control.

 

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

 

Effect Buehrle has had on the youngsters = priceless

[SAAviour]

I

Thought it would be interesting to take a quick and dirty look into the Marlins trade 3 years later because it's come up a lot over the last few days. Assuming a flat 7M/win over the three years because it's close enough.

 

In

Buehrle = 8.4 RA-9 WAR, 43.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Reyes = 6.2 fWAR, 48M salary = -4.6M surplus value (through 2015)

Johnson = 0.4 fWAR, 13.8M salary = -11M surplus value

Bonifacio = who cares

Buck = who cares

 

total surplus value acquired = about 0M.

 

Out

Escobar = 5.6 fWAR, 15M salary = 24.2M surplus value

Alvarez = 4.2 fWAR, 6M salary = 25.2M surplus value

Desclafani = 3.3 fWAR, 1M salary = 22.1M surplus value

Marisnick = 2.4 fWAR, 1.5M salary = 15.3M surplus value

Hechavarria = 1 fWAR, ~4.25 salary = 2.75M surplus value (with pretty dubious defensive metrics)

Nicolino = who cares

Mathis = who cares

 

total surplus value traded = about 90M + whatever Alvarez, Desclafani, Hechavarria, and Marisnick accrue over their remaining years of team control.

 

So probably a net loss of value in the $100-150M range.

 

Ouch!

And to think at the time there was a rumour MLB was going to squash the trade, and every writer in baseball was saying we raped the Marlins.