Offseason Roster Thread

[Stangstag]

They aren't idiots. Just because they have an opinion that's different doesn't make them.any less.

 

Sure, they're not necessarily idiots. Its more the fact that casual fans are too uninformed to have a valid opinion, yet they tend to be very vocal.

[THANOS]

Sure, they're not necessarily idiots. Its more the fact that casual fans are too uninformed to have a valid opinion, yet they tend to be very vocal.

 

They're not necessarily uninformed, just informed by the worst authority; guys like McCown, Brady and Walker, etc. They are taught by all the hockey fan bandwagoner analysts who aren't used to following baseball too much, since 93.

[Boxcar]

They're not necessarily uninformed, just informed by the worst authority; guys like McCown, Brady and Walker, etc. They are taught by all the hockey fan bandwagoner analysts who aren't used to following baseball too much, since 93.

 

That is literally the same thing as being uninformed.

[THANOS]

That is literally the same thing as being uninformed.

 

Uninformed:

not having or showing awareness or understanding of the facts.

 

The definition shows that they would need to not have the facts to be uninformed. They get many of them from the sources I listed, only the message behind them is inappropriately twisted to fit the anti-shapiro narrative.

[Spanky__99]

Fans will like it for the first 1-2 years, then the last 1-2 they will wish they were traded sooner. Too bad, the Jays have budget constraints but they could really build off getting prospects if they agreed to trades (maybe sign and trade). The habs were in a similar situation with Markov, and now he's basically an overpaid 4th dman who is slow and can't keep up. Sometimes it just takes a small period of time for age to catch up to you, then you wished you did things differently. The Jays don't have the NYY luxury of just adding and adding if things go wrong.

 

This isn't the NHL or NBA mate?

[burlingtonbandit]

Edwin - resign

 

Jose - let walk

 

Rather do the opposite. Even though Bautista is older I think he has the much better chance of remaining elite.

[glory]

I think there's a very good chance that Bautista and Encarnacion are both worth more than the contracts they sign; that should be the bottom line for Atkins. Unlikely you're going to get players of their value for less money via FA or trade, signing them seems the best option. I think both guys will age exceptionally well.

 

I guess it depends on how they project each player to age. Four years for players of that age is pretty risky. Not only that, but they'd be entering 2017 with five players making $100m, and then 2018 with those same five players making more than $100m (factoring what should be some type of record arbitration figure for Donaldson). Ownership would really have to go above and beyond what they've already committed to keep those guys and have enough resources to add talent around them. They'll need to replace the main pieces of the bullpen (Cecil/Storen), 2/5's of the rotation (Dickey/Chavez), among other things. If you have five players making $100m, and then Estrada making $14.5m, and then Happ making $13m, and so on, it's going to get complicated.

 

If the Jays had to re-sign one, I think they would prioritize Bautista (better player, in better shape, etc), but I think bringing back one is probably the best case.

[Stangstag]

I guess it depends on how they project each player to age. Four years for players of that age is pretty risky. Not only that, but they'd be entering 2017 with five players making $100m, and then 2018 with those same five players making more than $100m (factoring what should be some type of record arbitration figure for Donaldson). Ownership would really have to go above and beyond what they've already committed to keep those guys and have enough resources to add talent around them. They'll need to replace the main pieces of the bullpen (Cecil/Storen), 2/5's of the rotation (Dickey/Chavez), among other things. If you have five players making $100m, and then Estrada making $14.5m, and then Happ making $13m, and so on, it's going to get complicated.

 

If the Jays had to re-sign one, I think they would prioritize Bautista (better player, in better shape, etc), but I think bringing back one is probably the best case.

 

But ROGERS IS THE RICHEST OWNER IN BASEBALL!!! TORONTO IS A HUGE MARKET!!!! OUR PAYROLL SHOULD BE AT LEAST 180 MILLION!!!!

 

/s

[BeastMode]

But ROGERS IS THE RICHEST OWNER IN BASEBALL!!! TORONTO IS A HUGE MARKET!!!! OUR PAYROLL SHOULD BE AT LEAST 180 MILLION!!!!

 

/s

 

Wait, doesn't Nintendo own the Mariners? ( too lazy to look, but if so, they'd be the richest)

[Stangstag]

Wait, doesn't Nintendo own the Mariners? ( too lazy to look, but if so, they'd be the richest)

 

You're right, but its a bit of a weird situation since Nintedo is based out of Japan. Mariners are owned by Nintedo of America

[BigCecil]

It comes down to production per dollar. If you think Bautista can give you 4 WAR for 20M then you're going to have a tough time beating that in free agency going after other players.

 

If you let him walk then you have to use his money to find 4 wins worth of talent. If EE and Jose age gracefully then they probably represent the most efficient use of 20M in free agency because they'll be worth more than they sign for.

 

I would be way more comfortable with 3 years though.

 

I think everyone but those 2 and their agents would be more comfortable with 3 years. The market is the market. I don't see 3 years but I hope I'm wrong.

 

Martin, JD (arb), Tulo, Edwin, Jose = $100 + Happ/Estrada = $125mm ish 2017 with 18 more spots to pay on the roster. hmmmmmm

[Boxcar]

Uninformed:

not having or showing awareness or understanding of the facts.

 

The definition shows that they would need to not have the facts to be uninformed. They get many of them from the sources I listed, only the message behind them is inappropriately twisted to fit the anti-shapiro narrative.

 

Thanks for proving my point?

[Angrioter]

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins met with Edwin Encarnacion to discuss a contract extension.

[Maahfaace]

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins met with Edwin Encarnacion to discuss a contract extension.

 

do you know where to get the full interview to listen too? all i see is a snippet about bats and EE on MLB.com

[glory]

It comes down to production per dollar. If you think Bautista can give you 4 WAR for 20M then you're going to have a tough time beating that in free agency going after other players.

 

If you let him walk then you have to use his money to find 4 wins worth of talent. If EE and Jose age gracefully then they probably represent the most efficient use of 20M in free agency because they'll be worth more than they sign for.

 

I would be way more comfortable with 3 years though.

 

I don't mind bringing them back, although you would have to factor a decline towards the end of each deal. The issue is fitting them into a "modest" payroll and mitigating any decline from them (and Martin/Tulo) by adding talent around them. Bringing them back and expecting them to perform like they did in their primes is asking for disappointment. They will fall off. That's what happens to most players in their late 30's. Maybe it will be gradual, it might be injury related, etc, but it will happen. Shapiro/Atkins are smart, they'll make the right call and offer what they think is fair. I just don't want to be in a situation where the Jays are so front loaded on contracts to players in their 30's that it prevents them from improving. Spending $130m on seven players in 2017 runs that risk.

 

But I do agree that with the way free agency has gone this season, and the team's refusal (rightfully) to trade prospects that it will be hard for the Jays to replace those guys for the same cost. I was going to say maybe they can sign someone like Josh Reddick to a smaller deal in lieu of signing one of them but in this market what the hell is a smaller deal?

 

It's a tough spot to be in. I still think the Jays end up losing one or both. We will see.

[G-Snarls]

I think everyone but those 2 and their agents would be more comfortable with 3 years. The market is the market. I don't see 3 years but I hope I'm wrong.

 

Martin, JD (arb), Tulo, Edwin, Jose = $100 + Happ/Estrada = $125mm ish 2017 with 18 more spots to pay on the roster. hmmmmmm

 

Yeah, I think we only keep one of JB and EE

[Slot Machine]

Yeah, the only way I see them both re-signing is on 4-year deals back-loaded. With them both making close to 25 mil in year four. Not saying its a good idea or a bad one but that's the only way its going to work unless payroll goes up.

 

ie. 4/75 for both of them. With the yearly breakdown of 16/17/17/25 or something. Year 4 coincides with Martin coming off the books.

[BigCecil]

Yeah, I think we only keep one of JB and EE

 

The "production per dollar" argument is real. Based on the cost of incremental FA WAR, I'm pretty sure both of these guys will be worth more than they sign for.

 

But the obvious issue when you do the Jay's napkin math...is that without a big bump in payroll and resigning them, we will lose a lot of value as we just haven't produced enough cheaper controllable talent. We traded it off, drafted poorly or didn't develop well. Pick your poison.

 

If we had these assets, we could have let one or both walk and mixed in the younger players to backfill at least some more of the lost production...much like the Cards did with Pujols.

Edited January 11, 2016 by BigCecil

[Stangstag]

The "production per dollar" argument is real. Based on the cost of incremental FA WAR, I'm pretty sure both of these guys will be worth more than they sign for.

 

But the obvious issue when you do the Jay's napkin math...is that without a big bump in payroll and resigning them, we will lose a lot of value as we just haven't produced enough cheaper controllable talent. We traded it off, drafted poorly or didn't develop well. Pick your poison.

 

If we had these assets, we could have let one or both walk and mixed in the younger players to backfill at least some more of the lost production...much like the Cards did with Pujols.

 

The Cardinals are frustratingly good. They were relying on Oscar Taveras to be a core piece of the team going forward, and they're still fine without him.

[BigCecil]

Well we do still have some cheap talent on the roster:

 

Pompey

Pillar

Travis

Goins

Colabello

Alford (he'll make the show based on speed/defence alone)

 

Stroman

Osuna

Sanchez

Hutchison

 

The key is to find at least one SP out of Osuna, Hutchison, Sanchez. This is the most important thing. If we have to buy SPs then yes, forget it. We have to make them.

 

Best case scenario is that our rotation looks like: Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Osuna, Hutchison/Sanchez/Greene.

 

If you can do that you're basically filling out LF, CF, 2B, backup INF, 1B/DH, SP1, SP4, SP5 with cheap players. That's actually a decent amount of cost-controlled regulars.

 

Those position players are on the cheap list true. That's a pretty shaky list no?

 

Wont get much WAR out of Goins/Cola. Travis was great in a brief stint, but he is coming off injury.

 

Pompey - Alford still have everything still to prove. Pillar will likely be a 2-3 WAR player.

 

9 roster spots for $5mm ish with the pitchers.

 

Agree on the SP development issue. Still that's $130mm or more (assume resigning JB/EE) or so with 9 roster spots still to pay. Perhaps not unrealistic?

[Trouba95]

Question: what would the Brewers want coming back for Will Smith? He's so intriguing.

[saskjayfan]

Those position players are on the cheap list true. That's a pretty shaky list no?

 

Wont get much WAR out of Goins/Cola. Travis was great in a brief stint, but he is coming off injury.

 

Pompey - Alford still have everything still to prove. Pillar will likely be a 2-3 WAR player.

 

9 roster spots for $5mm ish with the pitchers.

 

Agree on the SP development issue. Still that's $130mm or more (assume resigning JB/EE) or so with 9 roster spots still to pay. Perhaps not unrealistic?

 

revenues in baseball are going up and salaries are as well. If the Jays are not committed to keeping up they won't have a chance to sign both. If they do they will push the payroll to 150 to 155 in the next few years. They're just keeping up with baseball inflation at those levels. If you think you can win signing both the revenue generation makes it a wise business decision.

[Angrioter]

revenues in baseball are going up and salaries are as well. If the Jays are not committed to keeping up they won't have a chance to sign both. If they do they will push the payroll to 150 to 155 in the next few years. They're just keeping up with baseball inflation at those levels. If you think you can win signing both the revenue generation makes it a wise business decision.

 

Sign they both and trade Tulo

[BigCecil]

Sign they both and trade Tulo

 

That's possible. Who plays SS? If Travis is real offensively it makes Goins more plausible as full time SS.

[THANOS]

That's possible. Who plays SS? If Travis is real offensively it makes Goins more plausible as full time SS.

 

Yep. There's also the possibility that Tulo has one of his elite type seasons in 2016 and raises his trade value substantially. If that happens, maybe we can bring back a Top 50 shortstop prospect in his package.

[KingKat]

Yep. There's also the possibility that Tulo has one of his elite type seasons in 2016 and raises his trade value substantially. If that happens, maybe we can bring back a Top 50 shortstop prospect in his package.

 

Defnitely don't want to make any of these kind of trades now when it could be the last Bautista/EE year. Killer lineup, two lights out relievers and a serviceable rotation could take the Jays very far.

[BlueJayWay]

Fangraphs projected standings have the Jays going 84-78, third in AL East, tied with Seattle for the 2nd wildcard

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-projected-standings/

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[Spanky__99]

Yep. There's also the possibility that Tulo has one of his elite type seasons in 2016 and raises his trade value substantially. If that happens, maybe we can bring back a Top 50 shortstop prospect in his package.

 

He'd have to agree to a trade, he has a full NTC.

[glory]

Re-signing Bautista and Edwin becomes way more realistic if you move one or both of Tulo and Martin. That's really the only way. I'm not saying whether it's smart or not, but you can't fit five $20m players on a $140m payroll. Even $150m is pushing it.

[BigCecil]

Re-signing Bautista and Edwin becomes way more realistic if you move one or both of Tulo and Martin. That's really the only way. I'm not saying whether it's smart or not, but you can't fit five $20m players on a $140m payroll. Even $150m is pushing it.

 

I think that's obvious at this point. Move one or both and payroll would have to move up.

 

Just out of curiosity I wonder what Martin would be worth on the trade market (not saying it makes any sense to move him). Does he has NTC or 10/5 rights? don't think so.