Offseason Roster Thread

[Jimcanuck]

Well if it came down to Trading Tulo for a 3 WAR SP I'm keeping Tulo and signing a FA SP. There are a lots of SP on the market but really aren't any good quality SS that you can replace Tulo with.

 

There is something called a budget.

[Jimcanuck]

1. The positional adjustment exists because it's harder to play an average shortstop. You can't assume his defensive numbers compared to average would fully translate.

2. You cannot extrapolate his WAR total to 600 PA without regressing the additional performance. Also, if you do extrapolate for him, you have to do it for other guys too (Jed Lowrie, Eduardo Escobar).

3. The leaderboard is 2015 stats, not 2016 true-talent estimation. They are fundamentally different things.

4. If you're willing to include Goins (a second baseman in 2015) in your list, you should include other second basemen who would be capable shortstops.

5. #6 isn't "average" anyway, since the list is very top-heavy.

 

I understand all that. Ultimately projections come down to a talent assessment. There is no denying Goins is an above average to elite defender. At the plate he is not far below Pillar. I see Goins as everyday SS having the potential to be 2016's Pillar.

[THANOS]

Well if it came down to Trading Tulo for a 3 WAR SP I'm keeping Tulo and signing a FA SP. There are a lots of SP on the market but really aren't any good quality SS that you can replace Tulo with.

 

Yeah trading Tulo now gives us a net short term loss in surplus WAR value, which isn't ideal given the goal of 2016. I think trying to sell high on guys like Cola, Goins, Pillar, Revere, Sanchez, etc. and netting someone like Ross from dumb AJ is the better move.

[burlingtonbandit]

There is something called a budget.

 

Team has like 30-40 Million to spend? More than enough to get a FA SP. Only realistic trade I could see Tulo approving is maybe one to LAA. And say the package you get is Ayabar, Heany and Newcomb which the Angels might not even want to do. Does that make the Blue Jays any better?

[Brownie19]

1. The positional adjustment exists because it's harder to play an average shortstop. You can't assume his defensive numbers compared to average would fully translate.

2. You cannot extrapolate his WAR total to 600 PA without regressing the additional performance. Also, if you do extrapolate for him, you have to do it for other guys too (Jed Lowrie, Eduardo Escobar).

3. The leaderboard is 2015 stats, not 2016 true-talent estimation. They are fundamentally different things.

4. If you're willing to include Goins (a second baseman in 2015) in your list, you should include other second basemen who would be capable shortstops.

5. #6 isn't "average" anyway, since the list is very top-heavy.

 

BAM - you just got Northed....

 

Personally - I'd keep Tulo as I suspect by 2017 we may not have Bautista or EE (or at least 1 will be gone)....the core of the offense will be built around Donaldson, Tulo and Martin...

[Brownie19]

Team has like 30-40 Million to spend? More than enough to get a FA SP. Only realistic trade I could see Tulo approving is maybe one to LAA. And say the package you get is Ayabar, Heany and Newcomb which the Angels might not even want to do. Does that make the Blue Jays any better?

 

They may have 30-40 million to spend in 2016...but take a gander at 2017. It may strongly limit our ability to add a top pitcher when Tulo, Donaldson and Martin are all making $20M+ (and that's assuming both Bats & EE are gone....scary)

[burlingtonbandit]

They may have 30-40 million to spend in 2016...but take a gander at 2017. It may strongly limit our ability to add a top pitcher when Tulo, Donaldson and Martin are all making $20M+ (and that's assuming both Bats & EE are gone....scary)

 

Well I'm not advocating signing a SP to a 5 year deal. Iwakuma, Samardzja probably aren't getting long term deals. You can always trade guys later on too but with the amount of revenue the club generates I doubt payroll is going to go down. It should probably increase dramatically with Shapiro handling the business decisions from now on.

[GD]

Cliff Lee is dead. Not even worth discussing.

 

Sorry about that

 

BAM - you just got Northed....

 

Nope. Not making this a thing. Nope.

[Jimcanuck]

Team has like 30-40 Million to spend? More than enough to get a FA SP. Only realistic trade I could see Tulo approving is maybe one to LAA. And say the package you get is Ayabar, Heany and Newcomb which the Angels might not even want to do. Does that make the Blue Jays any better?

 

Team needs more than 1 SP. Two, or three if you don't trust Hutchison. Sanchez, Osuna, or Hendriks as SP cannot be for a full season.

[burlingtonbandit]

Team needs more than 1 SP. Two, or three if you don't trust Hutchison. Sanchez, Osuna, or Hendriks as SP cannot be for a full season.

 

Team also needs a starting SS. Goins is not that.

[Captain Adama]

Is it safe to assume that some of the same people who do not want Price signed, want Heyward signed for similar money?

 

If so, how does that even make sense? Our biggest need is pitching, not OF help. And Price is a top 10 pitcher. Heyward is not a top 10 position player. Not even close.

 

People want Heyward for 1: He's 26 compared to Price who's 30. 2: Heyward probably won't get 200 million. 3: hitters age better. 4: sure pitching is a need but if you more efficiently add wins elsewhere, why wouldn't you do it?

 

Also, Heyward was 11th best positional player this year. Slightly behind Goldschmidt, he's certainly a top 10 player.

[burlingtonbandit]

People want Heyward for 1: He's 26 compared to Price who's 30. 2: Heyward probably won't get 200 million. 3: hitters age better. 4: sure pitching is a need but if you more efficiently add wins elsewhere, why wouldn't you do it?

 

I think Heywards gets over 200M

[Captain Adama]

I think Heywards gets over 200M

 

Good defensive players remain an undervalued commodity. So probably not, but he'll get close to that amount.

[Boxcar]

Is it safe to assume that some of the same people who do not want Price signed, want Heyward signed for similar money?

 

If so, how does that even make sense? Our biggest need is pitching, not OF help. And Price is a top 10 pitcher. Heyward is not a top 10 position player. Not even close.

 

How does that not make sense? Maybe try thinking extra hard about it?

 

Our need is run prevention, which Heyward is very good at.

[burlingtonbandit]

Good defensive players remain an undervalued commodity. So probably not, but he'll get close to that amount.

 

The teams that can afford him have Front Offices that don't undervalue defense though and with his age I think it will create a bidding war where he gets over 200 Million.

[Governator]

Why the f*** are we talking about trading Tulo?

[Spanky99]

For some reason I think that's exactly what's going to happen. Dump Tulo's contract and hope for 2-2.5WAR from Goins.

 

You're dumner than a s*** coal that lasted over winter, you just blow that s*** away!!

 

Who can top this, yer dumn, lol.

[baubau]

Why the f*** are we talking about trading Tulo?

 

Cause dat salary relief? Free from dat handicap down teh road? Trading a oft injured shortstop with history of major issues? Take your pick.

[burlingtonbandit]

Cause dat salary relief? Free from dat handicap down teh road? Trading a oft injured shortstop with history of major issues? Take your pick.

 

I don't get how this is a reason. He's worth much more than 20 million this year. If you trade him you are going to have to replace his value which will probably be just as if not more expensive.

[Brownie19]

Good defensive players remain an undervalued commodity. So probably not, but he'll get close to that amount.

 

Really? it feels like defence was underrated like 2-3 years ago....like OBP was back in the Oakland moneyball days. Like OBP I think teams have caught on and it's the new 'cool' thing. I actually expect it win become overvalued in a couple of years...

[KingKat]

Why the f*** are we talking about trading Tulo?

 

Because Brunt pulled that one out of his ass.

[baubau]

I don't get how this is a reason. He's worth much more than 20 million this year. If you trade him you are going to have to replace his value which will probably be just as if not more expensive.

 

I don't know about the later part but he likely won't be worth 20M the coming years. For what its worth, I don't see the Jays trading him. Not because they don't want to but also because I doubt they really can.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't know about the later part but he likely won't be worth 20M the coming years. For what its worth, I don't see the Jays trading him. Not because they don't want to but also because I doubt they really can.

 

By the time 2019 rolls around we'll probably be at 12 Million/WAR. He really only has to be a 1.5-2 WAR player in those last years to be "worth" his contract. I would take the over on that.

[admin]

You're dumner than a s*** coal that lasted over winter, you just blow that s*** away!!

 

Who can top this, yer dumn, lol.

 

I think I speak for about 95% of the board, your s*** is getting really tiring. I don't think there's a single thread on this forum without your cancerous infestation. You've had probably the longest leash in the history of internet message boards, and there isn't much more to give.

[Trouba95]

I think I speak for about 95% of the board, your s*** is getting really tiring. I don't think there's a single thread on this forum without your cancerous infestation. You've had probably the longest leash in the history of internet message boards, and there isn't much more to give.

 

Yes. He says nothing of substance. All he does is insult people. I might troll from time to time but I don't personally attack people.

[Laika]

(LINK) Spencer Estey of Breaking Blue shows that Tulo should still be a "surplus" player or thereabouts even at the end of his deal Edited November 4, 2015 by NorthOf49

[Spanky99]

I think I speak for about 95% of the board, your s*** is getting really tiring. I don't think there's a single thread on this forum without your cancerous infestation. You've had probably the longest leash in the history of internet message boards, and there isn't much more to give.

 

Why, because your dumn? lol. Have at what ever you need to do ju1ced.

[Spanky99]

spank sober up ya knob jockey

 

Eat a giant turd out of my rectum thanks.

[Jimcanuck]

if there was a Pillar poll this time last year and someone predicted +4 WAR, some would have literally died laughing

 

Goins at +2 WAR from a full season at SS is certainly possible

[Spanky99]

if there was a Pillar poll this time last year and someone predicted +4 WAR, some would have literally died laughing

 

Goins at +2 WAR from a full season at SS is certainly possible

 

lol... you and ju1ced need your heads f***ing checked.