Offseason Roster Thread

[burlingtonbandit]

Are there any studies on large players aging more quickly? Heyward's value revolves largely around defense. At 6-5, 250+ is it a concern that his defense will drop as he ages?

 

I had no idea he was that big. He doesn't look out of shape or anything and it seems a lot of his weight is muscle in his legs. I would think defense drops with age no matter what. Heyward is a pretty good hitter so its not like he's Michael Bourn and all of his value is in his legs.

[burlingtonbandit]

crazy thing about Heyward is he has realistic potential to be a 140-150 wRC+ bat if he didn't have such a terrible swing. Tough to see him overhauling his swing at this point in his career though. Maybe if he comes to the Jays JD and CC can loan him Tewksberry.

[Terminator]

I had no idea he was that big. He doesn't look out of shape or anything and it seems a lot of his weight is muscle in his legs. I would think defense drops with age no matter what. Heyward is a pretty good hitter so its not like he's Michael Bourn and all of his value is in his legs.

 

Yeah his bat is fine. Steamer projects him for a .343 wOBA which is better than your average RF. Not very good for a 200 million dollar player though.

[Frenchsoup]

crazy thing about Heyward is he has realistic potential to be a 140-150 wRC+ bat if he didn't have such a terrible swing. Tough to see him overhauling his swing at this point in his career though. Maybe if he comes to the Jays JD and CC can loan him Tewksberry.

 

The thing is you can't pay for the hope of a 140-150 wRC+, he has to prove it first. He's going to get a to much money for my liking.

[Frenchsoup]

He has played in some pretty big ballparks though, so i could definitely see a jump up.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah his bat is fine. Steamer projects him for a .343 wOBA which is better than your average RF. Not very good for a 200 million dollar player though.

 

Reason he will get so much money is because of his age mostly. I mean to put it into perspective he is 7 months younger than Kevin Pillar who just had his first season with Toronto.

[Olerud363]

crazy thing about Heyward is he has realistic potential to be a 140-150 wRC+ bat if he didn't have such a terrible swing. Tough to see him overhauling his swing at this point in his career though. Maybe if he comes to the Jays JD and CC can loan him Tewksberry.

 

His numbers don't look like he has a terrible swing. He struck out less then 100 times the last couple of years.

 

The only problem is he hits about half as many homeruns as you'd expect from a guy 6'5" 250.

 

His first three years he was exactly where you'd expect. Then he lost half his homeruns... not sure what happened.

[Olerud363]

Yeah his bat is fine. Steamer projects him for a .343 wOBA which is better than your average RF. Not very good for a 200 million dollar player though.

 

He's about the same age, and has been worth about the same as Stanton according to WAR. It's hard to know if the defense is measured accurately.

 

I hate to say it but he seems like the kind of guy I'd expose to Cito Gaston. Cito would flip at the thought of a guy that big hitting 13 homeruns.

[jaysblue]

crazy thing about Heyward is he has realistic potential to be a 140-150 wRC+ bat if he didn't have such a terrible swing. Tough to see him overhauling his swing at this point in his career though. Maybe if he comes to the Jays JD and CC can loan him Tewksberry.

 

Crazy potential, though he hasn't proved to be that type of force offensively on a consistent basis. He's young and an excellent defender, so he'll get a very lucrative contract, though I would feel hesitant to hand a $200 million deal over to an outfielder who hasn't even topped 15 HR's the past two seasons. With age, his defense will decline and if he isn't an offensive force, then it could turn into a mess of a contract long term.

[GD]

Heyward at 8/200 with a 4 year ETO would be perfect

[Jimcanuck]

He's about the same age, and has been worth about the same as Stanton according to WAR. It's hard to know if the defense is measured accurately.

 

I hate to say it but he seems like the kind of guy I'd expose to Cito Gaston. Cito would flip at the thought of a guy that big hitting 13 homeruns.

 

I wouldn't expose a $200M investment to Cito

[jaysblue]

The thing is you can't pay for the hope of a 140-150 wRC+, he has to prove it first. He's going to get a to much money for my liking.

 

Agreed. I love Heyward, though + $200 million over a long term contract is a lot for someone who hasn't topped 15 HR's in the past three seasons, no matter how good he has been defensively. With age, his defense will decline and if he isn't hitting like a top bat, the latter parts of the deal could be a mess. Still he'll be an interesting FA and obviously the potential is huge if he could turn into the offensive monster many people projected him to be when he came up to the Bigs.

[RealAccountant]

You do if you replace him with a .750 ops bat and a good starting pitcher, plus a decent prospect on the side.

 

There are lots of starters on the FA market and as far as a prospect is concern EE will still be worth a draft pick

 

Like I said, there is no reason to fix something that is the best in the majors right now. Team needs pitching, and has allegedly payroll room to get pitching. We have a shot at a championship and need to take it

[Olerud363]

I wouldn't expose a $200M investment to Cito

 

Maybe a bad idea... naively I figure someone just has to yell at Heyward until he starts cranking a few more balls over the fence... seems Cito would be that guy...

 

What is the issue with Heyward anyway? To many ground balls?? How does a guy that size have the same power numbers as Kevin Pillar??

 

He really does have the same power numbers as Kevin Pillar ~ 30 doubles, 12 homers in 570 at bats the last 2 years

[Spanky99]

His numbers don't look like he has a terrible swing. He struck out less then 100 times the last couple of years.

 

The only problem is he hits about half as many homeruns as you'd expect from a guy 6'5" 250.

 

His first three years he was exactly where you'd expect. Then he lost half his homeruns... not sure what happened.

 

He stopped pulling dat ball, and uses the entire field. Walks more, K's way less, just an all round smarter hitter. He's worth every much as he was when he hit bombs, there's still alot of XBH's.

[GreekFatAss]

He stopped pulling dat ball, and uses the entire field. Walks more, K's way less, just an all round smarter hitter. He's worth every much as he was when he hit bombs, there's still alot of XBH's.

Hasn't he also played most of his games in fairly pitcher friendly parks too?

[Spanky99]

Hasn't he also played most of his games in fairly pitcher friendly parks too?

 

Yup, Atlanta until he was traded to the Cards last season, both pitcher parks.

[GreekFatAss]

Yup, Atlanta until he was traded to the Cards last season, both pitcher parks.

 

With a ton of games played on pitchers parks in the NL central and East.

[Stangstag]

There are lots of starters on the FA market and as far as a prospect is concern EE will still be worth a draft pick

 

Like I said, there is no reason to fix something that is the best in the majors right now. Team needs pitching, and has allegedly payroll room to get pitching. We have a shot at a championship and need to take it

 

Even if we trade one lf Bautista/Edwin we would still probably have the best offense in baseball.

[Stangstag]

I loved Shapiro's comments about building a balanced team. A team that is top 5 in runs scored and top 5 in runs prevented is better than a team that is #1 in runs scored and 12th in runs prevented.

 

The jays scored over 100 runs MORE than the 2nd best offense in baseball. We can afford to trade 1 of our big bats IMO.

[Olerud363]

He stopped pulling dat ball, and uses the entire field. Walks more, K's way less, just an all round smarter hitter. He's worth every much as he was when he hit bombs, there's still alot of XBH's.

 

He's striking out less that is for sure. And he's worth the same as he was in 2012 when he hit 27 homers.

 

However he walked 91 times as a 20 year old. He walks less then he did at 20.

 

40 extra base hits in 2014, 50 in 2015. Not a lot really.

[Terminator]

I loved Shapiro's comments about building a balanced team. A team that is top 5 in runs scored and top 5 in runs prevented is better than a team that is #1 in runs scored and 12th in runs prevented.

 

The jays scored over 100 runs MORE than the 2nd best offense in baseball. We can afford to trade 1 of our big bats IMO.

 

So if we traded a 4 WAR offensive player for a 2.5 WAR pitcher and our runs scored dropped by 80 and our runs prevented improved by 20 you'd like that?

 

To me you evaluate each position individually and improve the positions that are easiest to do so.

[Spanky99]

He's striking out less that is for sure. And he's worth the same as he was in 2012 when he hit 27 homers.

 

However he walked 91 times as a 20 year old. He walks less then he did at 20.

 

40 extra base hits in 2014, 50 in 2015. Not a lot really.

 

Plenty enough with his D, mate. As others have said, it'd be interesting to see him hitting in a bandbox.

[Spanky99]

So if we traded a 4 WAR offensive player for a 2.5 WAR pitcher and our runs scored dropped by 80 and our runs prevented improved by 20 you'd like that?

 

To me you evaluate each position individually and improve the positions that are easiest to do so.

 

Yeah, I don't get that. What was our run prevention rank this year? Anyone?

[King]

Yeah, I don't get that. What was our run prevention rank this year? Anyone?

 

#12

 

From the allstar break to the end of the season, #2

[RealAccountant]

Even if we trade one lf Bautista/Edwin we would still probably have the best offense in baseball.

 

But there is no reason to break up a good thing, its not like we are getting a front of the rotation type starter. Any deal including Edwin or Bautista will have them as the best player in that deal. Plus we are going to get a high draft pick out of them anyways.

[Spanky99]

#12

 

From the allstar break to the end of the season, #2

 

Thanks brosoff!

[RealAccountant]

#12

 

From the allstar break to the end of the season, #2

 

We threw away a lot of games on having Sanchez, Norris, Dubront, Boyd, Copeland start. Replace those start with someone average and we finish in top 10.

[Spanky99]

#12

 

From the allstar break to the end of the season, #2

 

So right after Cola and Valencia was removed from LF, we improved emphatically, lol.

[Governator]

We threw away a lot of games on having Sanchez, Norris, Dubront, Boyd, Copeland start. Replace those start with someone average and we finish in top 10.

 

Yet you've said Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Hutchison, Osuna will be the rotation with no FA pitchers being added. It's a revolving door, do you fully expect Osuna, Hutchison and Stroman to throw 200IP? Who's going to back them as average MLB starters from our depth pool?