Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

Davis Schneider spent parts of 4 seasons at rookie and A ball at age 18, 19, 20, and 21

 

Danny Jansen was at rookie and A for 4 years at age 18, 19, 20, and 21. OPS of 500 and 600

 

George Springer was in A-, A+, and AA at 21 and 22

 

Justin Turner was in rookie ball at 21

 

18 at rookie and A ball is exceptional by itself. Bonilla has hit very well at DSL and rookie. Nimmala hasn't been good, but shown potential. Not sure why you are making up a s*** case to cry about

 

 

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27

 

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games

 

Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla

 

Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

[Olerud363]

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27

 

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games

 

Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla

 

Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

 

 

Some of the people giving me a hard time about this actually do understand the concept. Extreme k-rate, even low sample size, is meaningful.

 

A couple people were half jokingly thinking maybe Jackson Holliday could bust, no one was even joking about it before his 10 game stint in the majors.

 

18 ks in 10 games 2-18 k/bb. Extreme enough it knocks off a bit off his career expectations. It does increase the chance he could bust by a bit (pretty low still obviously).

 

Anyway point is if you read the posts about Jackson Holliday people kind of get this, the terrible k rate in 40 games puts players in a different group and lowers expectations already.

[Olerud363]

Some of the people giving me a hard time about this actually do understand the concept. Extreme k-rate, even low sample size, is meaningful.

 

A couple people were half jokingly thinking maybe Jackson Holliday could bust, no one was even joking about it before his 10 game stint in the majors.

 

18 ks in 10 games 2-18 k/bb. Extreme enough it knocks off a bit off his career expectations. It does increase the chance he could bust by a bit (pretty low still obviously).

 

Anyway point is if you read the posts about Jackson Holliday people kind of get this, the terrible k rate in 40 games puts players in a different group and lowers expectations already.

 

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling.

 

Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

[Olerud363]

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling.

 

Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

 

How do you imbecile trading bros make your millions on the NVIDIA? There must be a buy NVIDIA button on your phones. One click.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Brownie19]

How do you imbecile trading bros make your millions on the NVIDIA? There must be a buy NVIDIA button on your phones. One click.

 

Not sure how NVIDIA entered the chat - but I'm making a killing off it

[Olerud363]

Not sure how NVIDIA entered the chat - but I'm making a killing off it

 

Since people don't have the attention span to read 3 sentences (sentences look long on phone) I was just curious how the day traders here make so much money. I assume there is a button on the phone that one can use to buy NVIDIA with one click. Not sure how you sell it.

 

Update. Bonilla on fire. Up to .324 on base percentage. Got another walk this week.

 

Schneider at 18 in Rookie Ball - 36 walks 36 ks

Jansen at 18 in Rookie Ball - 20 walks 10 ks

Bonilla at 18 in Rookie Ball - 3 walks 29 ks

 

lol. He probably will make it, but given how much struggles even our guys who dominate rookie ball have. Given that Orelvis 'popup' Martinez didn't start to hit all those popups until aa it will be a helluva long road.

 

It will still probably take Bonilla 8 years to reach the majors and he will have a career like Moises Sierra or something... It'll be great. Can't wait until 2031.

[Stangstag]

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling.

 

Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

 

That’s 4 paragraphs my dude, not 4 lines

[Olerud363]

ThatÂ’s 4 paragraphs my dude, not 4 lines

 

The last post was 6 lines on a PC + some stats for Schneider, Jansen, and the up and comer Bonilla (in terms of k/bb one is not like the other). You may be thinking of sentences. It is possible to have mulitple sentences on a line.

 

Most of my post are about 4-7 lines of text on a desktop. Probably 30-40 lines of text on your phones, especially for anyone over 40 who uses the big text. Point is a major board problem is completely different ability to absorb information for the desktop users vs the phone users. The latter are probably on average much dumber (not genetics just phone induced brain damage) but much richer because of the 'buy NVIDIA' button on the phone (though they do have to sell it at some point).

[Olerud363]

People are just totally misunderstanding what I am saying about Bonilla and Nimmala.

 

It's not that they have a 0% chance of making it, it's that they have greatly reduced their chances of making it quick and being a star. Players who become stars usually are already different their first two months.

 

We all want high impact talent and other than potentially Barger I would say every player in the system has sort of set ceilings.

 

Don't you all agree? I think Barger has a really high ceiling still because of both his stats, and what I have heard about his arm strength and bat speed. He's like the only guy you could dream on, and he might be a complete failure because of footwork and spend his prime in Korea like Eric Thames did.

[Laika]

People are just totally misunderstanding what I am saying about Bonilla and Nimmala.

 

It's not that they have a 0% chance of making it, it's that they have greatly reduced their chances of making it quick and being a star. Players who become stars usually are already different their first two months.

 

We all want high impact talent and other than potentially Barger I would say every player in the system has sort of set ceilings.

 

Don't you all agree? I think Barger has a really high ceiling still because of both his stats, and what I have heard about his arm strength and bat speed. He's like the only guy you could dream on, and he might be a complete failure because of footwork and spend his prime in Korea like Eric Thames did.

 

Most agree with you

 

I guess the counterpoint is - sometimes these players click mid-season so it's just premature. There are "fast rising stars" who had bad 20-30 game stretches when they were 18 in rookie ball or A ball. Those stretches just tend to get masked by final season numbers being better. And there are guys who had completely bad seasons... but I would guess that any real Stars who did that probably could blame an injury or so.

 

I have no examples, might look later, but Jose Ramirez had a .674 OPS in AA when he was 20.

[Laika]

Here is a fun one! Mookie f***ing Betts

 

2012, 19 years old, NYPL

 

71 games and 0 home runs. only 8 2B and 1 3B. That's a .307 SLG. .659 OPS.

Yes, he did hit .267 and had a really good K/BB rate.

 

2013 he figured out how to hit for power, never looked back. MLB in 2014 and immediately a Superstar.

[Brownie19]

Here is a fun one! Mookie f***ing Betts

 

2012, 19 years old, NYPL

 

71 games and 0 home runs. only 8 2B and 1 3B. That's a .307 SLG. .659 OPS.

Yes, he did hit .267 and had a really good K/BB rate.

 

2013 he figured out how to hit for power, never looked back. MLB in 2014 and immediately a Superstar.

 

Man - Betts is going to go down as one of the best to ever play this game. Such an incredible athlete.

[Spanky99]

[Sorrow]

Im not going to post the video as I found it uncomfortable to watch but Peyton Henry was hit in the back of the head by a follow through swing and had to be carted off the field while strapped to a back board, game was cancelled after this and he is on his way to a local hospital.

[Spanky99]

Im not going to post the video as I found it uncomfortable to watch but Peyton Henry was hit in the back of the head by a follow through swing and had to be carted off the field while strapped to a back board, game was cancelled after this and he is on his way to a local hospital.

 

Geez... hope he's alright. He's alert and responsive.

[The_DH]

That's serious s***.

[Sorrow]

In good news Peyton Henry was released from hospital. This is great news and I'm hoping he's back out there soon. He was having seizures on the field after the contact so it did not look good.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Spencer Horwitz went 5 for 6 today with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs

[Olerud363]

Here is a fun one! Mookie f***ing Betts

 

2012, 19 years old, NYPL

 

71 games and 0 home runs. only 8 2B and 1 3B. That's a .307 SLG. .659 OPS.

Yes, he did hit .267 and had a really good K/BB rate.

 

2013 he figured out how to hit for power, never looked back. MLB in 2014 and immediately a Superstar.

 

Right. Great bb/k. 32 to 30. If Bonilla walks 27 straights times without striking out he'll be up there too.

 

Ramirez did struggle at times. But his bad season at 20 had him in the majors that year for 15 games.

 

Is there anyway Nimmala or Bonilla play 15 games with the Jays in 2 years?

[Olerud363]

Take an average player at random like Isiah Kiner Falafa. Even he hit .320 at 18 in his rookie league.

 

Albeit it took him to age 22 to get a homerun. Is their anyone in Jays system as good as Isiah?

 

Of course there is if any of them can play defense.

 

If Leo Jiminez can play good defense (which I think I heard he could) he would be terrific. He has like a .390 minor league on base percentage and way more homers than Falefa

 

Someone said Jays currently don't have a Vlad/Bo

 

I think Jiminez/Horwitz could out-WAR Vlad-Bo any year except 2021 if they can play defense. That's a big if. Part of that is just a reflection of how dissapointing Vlad/Bo are compared to their 2017/2018/2021 numbers.

[Olerud363]

Spencer Horwitz went 5 for 6 today with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs

 

Orelvis 'popup' Martinez hit his 14th and has his average down to .236 so he is having a very Orelvis 'popup' Martinez like season

 

Spencer 'no power bro' Horwitz 2/4 now hitting .335 with 22 doubles but only 4 homers.

 

Spencer was taken out of the game, headed to Oakland? Hit by pitch ? Do not know.

[Olerud363]

Alan 'no power bro' Roden with his 7th. Only hitting .268 or so this year... but k/bb is dynamite if you believe in that kind of thing.

 

And on pace for maybe 16 homers this year. Still 'no power bro' ?

 

Jace 'no power bro' Bohufren hit his 3rd. Hitting .237 which is awful for a 'no power bro' guy with 3 homers. Likely have to put him in the bad bin with Nimalla and Bonilla (though Bonilla all the way up to 6 walks to go with 27 ks).

[Laika]

BNS earlier today said he wouldn't be surprised if Horwitz was called up for Oakland

 

Who knows what the corresponding move would be. Biggio gone?

[The_DH]

That's probably the most likely event, the alternative would be Ernie Clements may not be necessary.

[Eat My Shatkins]

BNS earlier today said he wouldn't be surprised if Horwitz was called up for Oakland

 

Who knows what the corresponding move would be. Biggio gone?

 

Or Clement, who's been ass lately

[glory]

BNS earlier today said he wouldn't be surprised if Horwitz was called up for Oakland

 

Who knows what the corresponding move would be. Biggio gone?

 

With the team playing Horowitz at 2B in the minors, that would make sense. Clement at least hits LHP so he has some value to the club. Biggio's only value comes from being Craig's son.

[Spanky99]

BNS earlier today said he wouldn't be surprised if Horwitz was called up for Oakland

 

Who knows what the corresponding move would be. Biggio gone?

 

For reference... https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/with-spencer-horwitz-on-blue-jays-radar-could-promotion-follow/

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

June 5, 2024, 9:47 PM

 

TORONTO — At a time that the Toronto Blue Jays want more offence, they have a player on their 40-man roster who ranks among the triple-A batting leaders. And while Spencer Horwitz just started learning second base in earnest a few weeks ago, he's had plenty of recent reps and the early reports are promising.

 

So, why not call him up? At minimum, it’s a question the Blue Jays appear to be considering seriously. And at this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Horwitz got the call relatively soon. He’s certainly applying pressure with a robust .332/.455/.510 slash line through Wednesday’s games.

 

Yet for now, Horwitz remains in triple-A, and as long as he’s still there, it’s worth considering this decision from a few angles, fully assessing the case for promoting the 26-year-old.

 

Fifty-six games into his season, Horwitz ranks among the International League leaders in doubles (21, first), batting average (.332, fourth) and on-base percentage (.450, second). Those numbers are the product of good strike zone judgment and an ability to square up line drives. He's also holding his own against velocity, with a .278/.435/.278 batting line against fastballs 95 m.p.h. or harder entering play Wednesday.

 

That’s a legitimately appealing skillset, one that allowed Horwitz to post a 102 OPS+ in his 2023 debut. Projection systems are optimistic, too, with both ZiPS (113 wRC+) and Steamer (119 wRC+) forecasting above-average offensive production.

 

The Blue Jays worked with Horwitz during the spring to access a little more power, and he has a modest four home runs to his name so far this year, but it hasn’t stopped him from being a productive player.

 

“He always gets himself good pitches to hit, has a good approach. He’s always hit and you don’t want to take something away from him,” offensive coordinator Don Mattingly said Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre. “But you do want to unlock the pull side. That was the main thing we tried to work on and sometimes that’s tough.”

 

Blue Jays prospect Horwitz addresses 'lack of power' criticism he faces.

 

While Mattingly hasn’t had the chance to watch minor leaguers swing the bat in person since the spring, he and assistant hitting coach Matt Hague were comparing notes on Horwitz’s progress Wednesday, and both coaches were encouraged.

 

“He’s doing his thing,” Mattingly said. “He’s been swinging the bat real good.”

 

Interestingly the Blue Jays have also had recent conversations about Horwitz with triple-A manager Casey Candaele and bench coach Donnie Murphy — another indication that he’s on the radar for a big-league roster spot. On Tuesday, Candaele and Murphy answered questions from big-league manager John Schneider about Horwitz’s defence.

 

“They've been pleasantly surprised with his work at second,” Schneider said. “He has a specific routine that he's doing daily to get better.”

 

That improvement’s encouraging, as Horwitz’s defence is one of the main questions that would have to be answered before a promotion, the others being how much playing time he’d get and whose roster spot he’d take.

 

A first baseman by trade, Horwitz recently appeared to be blocked by the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Justin Turner and Daniel Vogelbach, all of whom count first base as their primary position. With that in mind, the Blue Jays started mixing Horwitz in at second in May, and that's where he's started six of his last nine games.

 

In total, Horwitz has started 11 games at second, making one error, while also starting three games in left and 31 at first. From what Schneider heard, the results at second are good on routine plays. Now it’s a matter of learning the intricacies of the position — ones that are tough to practice, such as executing a relay or recovering from an errant throw.

 

“You can sit there and take a thousand ground balls a day and turn a thousand double plays,” Schneider said. “It's just the speed of the game and those (unpredictable) baseball plays.”

 

How can Blue Jays compensate for lack of homers against the Orioles?

 

If Horwitz’s bat is ready and his glove is improving, the next logical question is whether he’d have any playing time in Toronto. When GM Ross Atkins last addressed the media on May 18, he described Horwitz as “a real alternative for us,” but said there’s a benefit to developing by playing every day in the minors.

 

With that said, Horwitz is 26 years old. We aren’t talking about a 22-year-old like Orelvis Martinez here. If a slight reduction in playing time can help the big-league team win, that’s certainly justifiable for someone approaching his 27th birthday.

 

“That’s fair,” Atkins said at the time. “It comes down to his impact playing once a week on our team versus his growth and development and continued improvement, playing every day and the opportunities to learn to play second and get into left field.”

 

Between first, second, left and DH, there should now be enough at-bats for him to play a few times per week. It wouldn’t be ideal to have a roster including Guerrero Jr., Turner, Vogelbach, Alejandro Kirk and Horwitz, but the presence of those players doesn’t eliminate bat-first players from consideration, either.

 

“No, I don’t think anyone’s ruled out,” Schneider said. “(A prospect's) goal is to push the envelope, which him and a few others are definitely doing, and let the chips fall where they may. But I don't think anyone's anyone's ruled out.”

 

In theory, then, there’s room for Horwitz on this roster. That leaves the question of who he’d replace. Perhaps an injury to a remarkably healthy position player corps will open up a spot, or maybe the Blue Jays will decide to move on from an underperforming player like Ernie Clement.

 

There’s a cost associated with removing someone from the roster, of course, but Horwitz’s bat could make it all worthwhile. And if nothing else his work in Buffalo is tempting the Blue Jays’ decision makers from afar.

[Sorrow]

From what I’d seen Horwitz doesn’t look bad at 2B. Someone you could keep in for 7 innings and sub in a better defender late in the game.

 

I think Clement could be the odd man out. He’s been bad with the bat, he’s been bad defensively.

 

I know Biggio has warts and can’t play SS but he’s been better with the bat, he’s a better defender so far this year.

[Krylian]

From what I’d seen Horwitz doesn’t look bad at 2B. Someone you could keep in for 7 innings and sub in a better defender late in the game.

 

I think Clement could be the odd man out. He’s been bad with the bat, he’s been bad defensively.

 

I know Biggio has warts and can’t play SS but he’s been better with the bat, he’s a better defender so far this year.

 

Or we can be serious and stop settling for mediocrity and ditch them both. Revolving door until someone shows they're interested in holding that roster spot.