Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Daniel Labude]

Who has Baseball America?

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-should-we-make-of-ricky-tiedemanns-arizona-fall-league-campaign/

[Spanky99]

ARTICLEMINORS

 

What Should We Make Of Ricky Tiedemann’s Arizona Fall League Campaign?

October 26, 2023

October 26, 2023

Geoff Pontes

0 Comments

Ricky Tiedemann in the Arizona Fall League.

Ricky Tiedemann in the Arizona Fall League.

Image credit: (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

 

The 2023 season didn’t play out the way Ricky Tiedemann had planned.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays prospect entered the season riding the high of a breakout 2022 season where he climbed three levels of the minors and produced eye-popping strikeout totals. Tiedemann was expected to blow through the competition at Double-A and Triple-A and rise to the majors by the summer of 2023.

 

The thing about expectations is they rarely go according to plan for pitching prospects.

 

A shoulder strain in spring training delayed the start of Tiedemann’s season. He made four starts with Double-A New Hampshire, then exited a start on May 4 early with a biceps strain.

 

Something was amiss even in his previous start on April 25. Tiedemann’s fastball velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in the third inning, which is out of the ordinary. He seemingly lost command of his fastball and slider altogether in that inning. The game took place on a cold and raw New England night, but Tiedemann seemed off. He was not his usual dominant self, and not the same player that had struck out 15 batters to two walks over his first two starts of the season.

 

 

Tiedemann’s subsequent exit from his following start due to injury sent the lefthander on a tumultuous journey through the remainder of the 2023 season.

 

He missed nearly three months of action. Tiedemann’s stuff returned immediately after being activated on July 29. He stormed through a two-start rehab assignment in Dunedin and returned to Double-A New Hampshire on Aug. 11. The Blue Jays were conservative with Tiedemann’s pitch limit throughout his return, limiting him initially to 50 to 60 pitches. While Tiedemann’s results were up and down early, he rounded into form late. That built some momentum heading into the Arizona Fall League.

 

In three of his four starts in the Arizona Fall League, Tiedemann did something he had not done since July 1, 2022 – he exceeded 70 pitches in a start while going five or more innings. He led the league in strikeouts at the time of his departure on Oct. 22.

 

 

The fall campaign allowed Tiedemann to end on a high note. His ability to pitch deeper into games hints at full health heading into the offseason.

 

As one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Tiedemann’s fall season was naturally a point of intrigue and discussion in some corners of the internet. Chris Welsh of Prospect One Podcast recently observed Tiedemann’s release height on his slider is different relative to his fastball.

 

There’s some truth to the observation. Tiedemann’s release height on his slider is lower than his fastball. As you can see below, there’s a two and a half inch difference in release height and a quarter of an inch difference in side height.

 

Year Player Pitch Height Side

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.65 2.75

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Slider 5.4 3

 

This leads to a few obvious questions: how unique is this for a young pitcher and does it impact results at the next level?

 

It’s not particularly unusual for a pitcher to drop down when delivering their slider. Eury Perez and Bryce Miller are two prominent examples of pitching prospects who made the jump to the majors this season with a similar variance in height and side on release. Both Perez and Miller’s sliders graded out as positive pitches per Fangraphs pitch values.

 

Player Pitch Type Height Side

Eury Perez Four-Seam 6.1 -2

Eury Perez Slider 5.9 -2.3

Release diff 0.2 0.3

Bryce Miller Four-Seam 5.8 -0.7

Bryce Miller Slider 5.5 -1

Release diff 0.3 0.3

Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.65 2.75

Ricky Tiedemann Slider 5.4 3

Release diff 0.25 -0.25

 

But that doesn’t necessarily explain why Tiedemann’s release numbers had a greater differential. Could it be due to his battles with health this season?

 

To understand that, we have to first examine his 2022 data to see if there is a change in release.

 

As you can see below, there’s always been a fairly measurable difference in the release height of both Tiedemann’s three pitches, and he’s actually tightened the release of his arsenal this season.

 

Year Player Pitch Height Side

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.65 2.75

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Slider 5.4 3

Year Player Pitch Height Side

2022 Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.8 2.7

2022 Ricky Tiedemann Slider 5.4 3.2

 

The slider was Tiedemann’s most effective pitch throughout 2023 and, in particular, during the Arizona Fall League. The pitch had the highest whiff rate of any pitch in his arsenal, while also boasting the highest chase rate and a nearly equal swing rate to his fastball.

 

If we’re to believe that hitters tell you the quality of a pitch with their results, the hitters are telling us Tiedemann’s slider is fooling them as much as any pitch in his arsenal.

 

Now that we’ve covered the slider, the changeup release height may actually be the real concern. The difference in Tiedemann’s fastball and changeup release is significant.

 

Year Player Pitch Height Side

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.65 2.75

2023 Ricky Tiedemann Changeup 5.2 3

Year Player Pitch Height Side

2022 Ricky Tiedemann Four-Seam 5.8 2.7

2022 Ricky Tiedemann Changeup 5.3 3.1

 

There’s a four and a half inches of drop between his fastball and changeup and a quarter of an inch drop in side height. Again, though, this isn’t a new issue for Tiedemann. His release point actually tightened up in 2023.

 

It remains to be seen how much of a concern this is in the long run. Perhaps Tiedemann lacks an element of tunneling. Maybe it’s nothing at all – a small change we pick up on video and in data but is less noticeable to hitters in real time.

 

If hitters are processing the difference, they haven’t translated it to tangible results. Any struggles for Tiedemann can just as easily be hand-waved away as issues with command location.

 

All of this is something to watch. But it’s probably not a reason to panic.

[glory]

Tiedemann is such a risky prospect but the upside is so high. If the Jays had any success at developing starters then I'd probably be OK with trading him knowing that they'd just develop others who might be more durable, but he's like the only prospect aside from Manoah in the last 8 years who looks like he could crack a big league rotation so it's hard to move someone like that. Curious to see what (a presumably desperate) Atkins does.

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlb.com/pipeline?partnerId=zh-20231031-1073919-MLB-1-A&qid=100000024&utm_id=zh-20231031-1073919-MLB-1-A&bt_ee=TYwyaup87EYjXIW5OxqBho62NbrolseUqXeMduVHddgYJ%2BAXDNe%2FQsUk9SJfIq10&bt_ts=1698779905890

[RobinThicc]

Tiedemann is the definition of a sell high prospect

[Krylian]

Tiedemann is the definition of a sell high prospect

 

Sure. Why not... Might as well have the Moreno of the mound dealt too.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Krylian

[Laika]

Tiedemann is the definition of a sell high prospect

 

But it wouldn't be selling high. He missed almost the whole year with injuries. Kind of selling low, no?

[Stangstag]

Sure. Why not... Might as well have the Moreno of the mound dealt too.

 

Front office has a pretty good track record of selling high. Did it with Martin, Groshans, etc.

Possibly Moreno too, we’ll see. The playoffs are not really swaying my opinion of his season stats, which were ok for a rookie but not amazing.

 

Time will tell

[RobinThicc]

But it wouldn't be selling high. He missed almost the whole year with injuries. Kind of selling low, no?

 

Hes like a top 30 prospect in baseball, so he has value.

[Spanky99]

Palmegiani's a Derby Participant in the AFL AS festivities...

 

Damiano Palmegiani, (TOR No. 18), Surprise Saguaros: A 2021 14th-round pick, Palmegiani ranks second among Blue Jays Minor Leaguers with 47 combined home runs over his last two seasons. Only Top 100 prospect Orelvis Martinez (58) has gone deep more in that system. The right-handed slugger has homered four times in 18 games with Surprise, and nine of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases.

[Olerud363]

Hes like a top 30 prospect in baseball, so he has value.

 

Just like Moreno had 'value' after his thumb injury, which reduced his output from 'best prospect in baseball' to 'top 30'.

 

One explanation for what we are seeing with Moreno is that he didn't recover until late 2023 and now moving ahead is the greatest catcher since Johny Bench (gold glove defense, best arm in baseball, batting title contender with power as his 35 games in 2021 indicated).

 

So Tiedemann is the next David Price, except we don't see it right now because of his injuries so he is reduced from potential 'best pitching prospect in baseball' to 'a top 30 guy'.

 

It might sound like I am being facetious, but a Tiedemann trade has the same potential to blow up just like the Moreno trade.

[Spanky99]

Spicy BA tidbit on Spencer Horwitz...

 

Spencer Horwitz, 1B, Blue Jays

 

Horwitz is another player that reached the majors in 2023, hitting one homer and posting a wRC+ of 106 across 44 plate appearances in two stints. RoboScout ranked Horwitz 12th in Triple-A, ahead of names like Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser. So, why isn’t he held in higher regard? He doesn’t have all that much power, hitting 10 homers in 484 plate appearances for Triple-A Buffalo and 38 career homers over 1,729 MiLB plate appearances. He’s older than typical top prospects at 25 years old. But he had more walks than strikeouts last year and an OPS of .945 (90th percentile amongst Triple-A hitters with over 100 plate appearances).

 

With his plus contact rate and plus barrel rate, RoboScout projects him to hit .260 with a wRC+ of 112 in the major leagues. Steamer agrees, giving him a 115 wRC+ projection that would rank fifth on the Blue Jays, ahead of Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Davis Schneider. He may not be as good defensively as them, but his offensive projection is in the vicinity of Brendan Donovan and Jeff McNeil — and arguably better than DJ LeMahieu and Edouard Julien. That’s a solid on-base contributor to a major league team that isn’t receiving the appropriate accolades from the fantasy community. One final interesting note? In 2022, Horwitz posted a higher exit velocity and max exit velocity than Julien while maintaining the same in-zone contact rate. There may be more power lurking in Horwitz’s bat.

[Spanky99]

2023 MLB Farm System Statcast Hitting Rankings

 

Blue Jays rank 18th... TL/DR missing .ISO and Slg... recognition, and hit tool is great, same with K% and BB%, little power.

[Spanky99]

Hard to copy tata... don't be mad.

 

 

ARTICLEMINORS

2023 MLB Farm System Statcast Hitting Rankings

November 3, 2023

November 3, 2023

Geoff Pontes & Dylan White

0 Comments

 

 

Image credit: Michael Busch (Photo by Eddie Kelly)

 

For the first time, Baseball America is measuring performance based on underlying metrics via the Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.

 

The benefit of using this data versus other statistical analysis is, presumably, we’re able to remove the higher degree of variance that impacts in-game performance numbers and instead measure skill across organizations. A 110-mph line drive caught in the outfield is more indicative of future success than a 65-mph ground ball that finds a hole through the infield, even if one counts as a hit statistically and the other is an out.

 

Heston Kjerstad

Midseason Talent Rankings

See where all 30 farm systems ranked midway through the season in our organizational talent rankings.

 

READ MORE

Our Methodology

In order to calculate an all-encompassing number across a variety of metrics, we used weighted on base average (wOBA) as a baseline and built our “Hit Score” based on each metrics correlation to wOBA. Our ultimate goal was to weight each input for its importance or correlation to wOBA. Below, you will see the metric we created called Hit Score. This number measures production versus the average in a similar fashion to weighted Runs Created (wRC+) moving up and down from the average score of 100.

 

All metrics are based around each player’s plate appearances. So if one player has a 110-mph 90th percentile exit velocity, but only 100 plate appearances, his contribution to the organization’s 90th percentile exit velocity metric will be one-fifth as much as a player with a 100-mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 500 plate appearances. The same is true of chase rates and the other measurements.

 

One important note: this initial Hit Score+ does not consider age as one of the inputs. We know that older hitters should score higher in these metrics than younger hitters. Partly, that is because of physical maturation, but even more it’s based around skill development. As hitters age, they improve. This puts younger systems at a disadvantage when looking at this metric. In order to consider the impact on age, we created a second metric that factors in age to the hit score.

 

Below you will see the hit score and adjusted hit score for all 30 major league organizations. This number is factoring in exit velocity data, launch angle data, contact data and approach data. It is a variety of metrics you’re familiar with from Baseball Savant and Statcast.

 

The Hit Score+ is listed in order of production. It has been normalized so 100 is average, and higher numbers are better than lower numbers. A 110 Hit Score+ means the organization’s hit score is 10% above league average, where 90 would be 10% below league average.

 

Age Adjusted Hit Score+ tries to take an organization’s Hit Score+ and weight it by age, using three years of MiLB hitting metric data grouped by age to account for how hitters improve in many of these metrics with added age and experience. A LOESS smoothing technique — which was actually suggested by ChatGPT — was used to develop a fitted curve to the Hit+ data. It showed hitters rapidly improving in these metrics as they went from 17 to 23. After 23, those numbers largely stabilize before dropping off gradually for players in their late 20s.

 

While the MLB aging curve usually peaks at age 27 for hitters, the minors are somewhat different. Since the top players continue to graduate to the majors, the production curve in the minors flattens and then tails off at younger ages.

 

We created a nomalized Hit+ score, an expected Hit+ score (based on the weighted age for the organization), and then an age adjusted Hit+ Score, which was then normalized so 100 is league average.

 

The Age Adjustment did not dramatically change the results, but it did lead to some teams moving up or down a few spots when compared to their non-adjusted Hit Score+. The table is sorted by Age Adjusted Hit Score +.

 

Statcast Farm System Rankings

Rk ORG Weighted Age Hit Score+ Age Adjusted

Hit Score+

1 LAD 22.64 119.28 119.13

2 NYY 22.47 114.9 115.17

3 DET 22.49 114.21 114.43

4 PHI 23.18 114.09 113.08

5 MIL 21.98 109.09 110.53

6 SD 23.45 110.73 109.75

7 CHC 22.44 108.74 109.06

8 MIN 23.06 109.12 108.15

9 STL 23.09 107.66 106.71

10 CLE 21.36 102.23 105.85

11 SF 22.84 104.54 103.96

12 BAL 22 102.34 103.62

13 OAK 22.69 103.48 103.24

14 PIT 22.55 102.59 102.65

15 NYM 22.55 100.64 100.70

16 SEA 23.72 101.24 100.34

MLB AVG 22.67 100 100

17 HOU 22.87 99.84 99.23

18 TOR 22.68 98.79 98.58

19 CWS 23.55 96.72 95.86

20 CIN 22.75 94.84 94.50

21 BOS 21.92 92.51 93.92

22 COL 22.93 94.14 93.44

23 MIA 22.71 91.79 91.54

24 ATL 23.32 90.85 90.05

25 TEX 22.14 87.8 88.63

26 TB 21.99 87.17 88.29

27 AZ 22.17 87.25 88.02

28 WSH 23.2 87.98 87.20

29 KC 22.8 86.78 86.37

30 LAA 22.84 78.51 78.08

Analysis

 

It likely comes as no surprise that the Dodgers and Yankees rank highly on an analytical analysis. However, the Tigers and Phillies are pleasant surprises.

The Tigers have shown solid improvement in their hitting development recently. They rank in or around the top 10 across all plate skill metrics (contact, in-zone contact and chase), while ranking inside the top 10 in average exit velocity, launch angles and barrel rate. The Tigers showed a strong balance across their organization in 2023.

The Brewers are the third-youngest organization. When factoring in age, the Brewers jump from a seventh to fifth. The Brewers have a combination of young players with advanced plate skills and at least average or better exit velocity data.

The Rays are a bit of surprise near the bottom of this list, but when looking at the team ranks per metric it becomes clear what is dragging them down. Despite ranking highly in age and exit velocity, the Rays rank at or near the bottom across a variety of skill-based metrics.

90th Percentile Exit Velocity

ORG 90th EV

CHC 102.77

HOU 102.68

NYY 102.46

CIN 102.43

PHI 102.25

NYM 102.15

TB 102.11

MIN 101.98

PIT 101.93

CWS 101.89

DET 101.74

SEA 101.72

WSH 101.62

ATL 101.56

BAL 101.55

SF 101.53

Average 101.52

BOS 101.42

LAD 101.20

COL 101.18

STL 101.18

OAK 101.13

SD 101.08

LAA 101.07

MIA 100.99

MIL 100.98

KC 100.71

TEX 100.68

AZ 100.63

TOR 100.53

CLE 100.45

Analysis

 

The Cubs are one of the most consistent performers across all systems. They rank in the top five across all exit velocity metrics and are tops in 90th percentile exit velocity, which is the stickiest metric when projecting future power production.

Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays and Guardians rank at the bottom of 90th percentile exit velocity. The Guardians and Blue Jays have both aggressively targeted hit-over-power players and that plays out here.

After ranking poorly in overall hit score, the Rays rank highly among exit velocity numbers. They are one of the more powerful organizations, but also one of the least skilled.

 

Miss Rate

ORG Miss Rate

CLE 26.37%

STL 26.72%

SD 26.84%

MIL 26.96%

LAD 27.12%

OAK 27.13%

PHI 27.18%

MIA 27.53%

TOR 27.63%

DET 27.71%

COL 27.79%

AZ 27.96%

SF 28.04%

Avg 28.29%

TEX 28.30%

BAL 28.31%

CWS 28.36%

PIT 28.51%

CHC 28.62%

NYY 28.68%

KC 28.74%

LAA 28.77%

NYM 28.87%

BOS 28.91%

MIN 28.94%

WSH 29.02%

SEA 29.29%

HOU 29.96%

ATL 30.04%

CIN 30.29%

TB 30.39%

Analysis

 

Here’s where the Guardians stand out, ranking first in miss rate/contact rate. Toronto, which ranks second to last in 90th percentile exit velocity, jumps up to ninth when looking at how organizations rank when it comes to making contact.

 

Some of the best power-hitting teams rank lowly in overall miss rate. Tampa Bay is 30th in organizational contact rankings, while the Astros, Reds and Twins all rank in the top 10 in 90th percentile exit velocity, but are among the bottom 10 in contact.

The Phillies and the Tigers are the only two organizations that rank highly in both contact and 90th percentile exit velocity, helping to explain why both organizations rank as highly as they do in overall hit score.

 

Chase Rate

ORG Chase Rate

LAD 24.32%

SEA 24.36%

MIL 24.48%

MIN 24.79%

NYY 25.07%

SD 25.33%

TOR 25.36%

ATL 25.42%

PIT 25.86%

SF 26.07%

DET 26.14%

HOU 26.36%

OAK 26.42%

BAL 26.50%

KC 26.51%

Avg 26.61%

CLE 26.76%

PHI 26.99%

BOS 27.02%

CHC 27.07%

TEX 27.11%

NYM 27.22%

STL 27.23%

TB 27.27%

WSH 27.69%

AZ 28.22%

CIN 28.39%

LAA 28.47%

CWS 28.59%

MIA 28.75%

COL 28.85%

Analysis

 

The Dodgers excel in targeting and developing players with strong swing decisions and their top spot in the organizational chase rate ratings only solidifies that.

 

The Dodgers, Brewers, Blue Jays and Padres rank within the top 10 in contact rate and chase rate, giving these four organizations the distinction of the teams with the best plate skills. The Tigers are just outside the top 10, but show their consistency, ranking within the top third of the league across a variety of metrics.

 

The White Sox, Marlins and Rockies rank as the bottom tnhree teams in chase rate and are all bottom five in walk rate at the major league level. This illustrates an organizational philosophy that’s heavily based on putting the ball in play.

[deanmike]

Hard to copy tata... don't be mad.

 

Who the f*** would be mad at this info drop? Thanks Spankster !!

[max silver]

Hard to copy tata... don't be mad.

 

This is very interesting as the Blue Jays minor league system rankings largely mirror what occurred at the major league level with a low power/low strikeout high contact rate seemingly prioritized.

[MikeM3]

This is very interesting as the Blue Jays minor league system rankings largely mirror what occurred at the major league level with a low power/low strikeout high contact rate seemingly prioritized.

 

Just s***** minor leaguers that's all it means

[glory]

Just s***** minor leaguers that's all it means

 

Yeah being compared to the Guardians in terms of farm system and it having nothing to do with pitching is not a good thing.

[max silver]

Yeah being compared to the Guardians in terms of farm system and it having nothing to do with pitching is not a good thing.

 

Hopefully the Jays low farm system ranking will start to tick it's way back upwards as some of the higher ceiling prospects in the low minors work their way up the system.

[James Key]

It seems with that baseball American ranking that the jays are closer to middle of the pack after being near the bottom of most other popular traditional metric rankings of minor league teams.

 

This is a trend up but it could also suggest the jays could capitalize on their upward momentum by identifying better minor league coaches.

lets emulate the dodgers if we can. We have the budget and the facilities.

[hanton]

Couple of prospects made some noise in the Fall Stars game

 

https://www.mlb.com/stories/fall-stars-game-top-moments-2023

[MikeM3]

Wow our pitchers are 1st in vaa. Didn't expect that.

[L54]

Wow our pitchers are 1st in vaa. Didn't expect that.

 

What is vaa

[Spanky99]

What is vaa

 

Verticai approach angle.

[MikeM3]

What is vaa

 

Vertical approach angle. So our pitchers are throwing less downward than any other org.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is that good?? lol

 

I'm assuming it is

[Laika]

Yes

[L54]

Someone explain why it’s good

 

Not everybody knows why vaa is beneficial to an org

 

I assume because it runs counter to the current way of pitching and allows for more ride on the fastball but I am just guessing

[Laika]

Yes

 

Well, it's not really counter anymore as most orgs want pitchers to have fastballs that do not drop

 

But traditionally teams chased pitchers with a steep angle. Hitters basically all have uppercut swings, or at least a slight uppercut. The swing plane and the dropping pitch angle then tunnel or run together, so the hitters make more contact. If a pitch can come in more level than the hitters swing, you will get more whiffs.

 

But it's not as simple as VAA = good because it is pitch and player specific. A sinkerballer doesn't want to chase VAA. VAA is great if you are throwing 4 seamers and particularly up in the zone (but pitchers with elite VAA can literally get whiffs down the middle on 4 seamers). A team could have ideal VAA on all their pitchers but if 1/3 of them are sinker ballers ideal VAA does not mean higher VAA. So team level rankings aren't necessarily that informative. It just tells you the type of pitchers Toronto likes. Well, that and their effectiveness.

 

I am kind of surprised they would be absolute tops in it. The rotation doesn't strike me as one that would lead the league in VAA. Isn't Gausman's fastball shape kind of mediocre?

 

The pen is definitely all these kids of guys though. Except for maybe Mayza?

[L54]

Good explanation ^^^ thanks Laika

 

Need a couple bats to pair with the VAA darlings of the MLB