Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Laika]

21 year old SS in AA with a 14% BB rate, 19% K rate, and .270 ISO across 279 PA

 

Here is everybody since 2006 with a BB rate over 12%, K rate under 21%, and ISO of .250 or more while being 22 or younger in AA:

 

Trent Grisham 2019

Matt Wieters 2008

Alex Bregman 2016

Alex Gordon 2006

Colby Rasmus 2007

Gunnar Henderson 2022

 

Not a single non-MLB player shows up in the sample. I think Gunnar and Orelvis are the only two at 21 years old, as well. Rest were 22.

 

Trent Grisham is the "worst" on the list but he's not really a comparable as he just scraped out a .250 ISO that year, in 280 PA, and it was out of character. He's really not a good comparison whatsoever.

 

Here are some other guys who are CLOSE but just missed some of the thresholds:

 

Justin Upton 2007

Rafael Devers 2017

Bobby Witt Jr. 2021

Francisco Alvarez 2022

Spencer Torkelson 2021

Coby Mayo 2023

Corbin Carroll 2022

Giancarlo Stanton 2010 (.417 ISO lmao)

Curtis Mead 2022

Cristian Yelich 2013

Eric Duncan 2006

Dylan Carlson 2019

Rowdy Tellez 2016

Cody Bellinger 2016

 

Conclusion: Orelvis Martinez is a likely MLB player and his statistical profile indicates 4+ WAR upside, depending on defensive value.

[Terminator]

It appears at a glance that Alex De Jesus hit for the cycle tonight. His line shows 4 hits, including a double, triple, and home run. Frasso has struggled tremendously in recent outings so with De Jesus heating up in recent days the sting of the White trade is starting to dissipate a little bit.

 

Cannot believe that BA ranked Frasso #68 or whatever it was in their midseason update after 25 innings of good AA ball as a 24 year old. He’s a solid prospect but that’s way too high on him.

[Laika]

Frasso since June 6

 

9.1 IP, 15 ER

 

5 BB, 2 HBP, one WP --- looks like he has lost his delivery

[keggy]

Cannot believe that BA ranked Frasso #68 or whatever it was in their midseason update after 25 innings of good AA ball as a 24 year old. He’s a solid prospect but that’s way too high on him.

 

My understanding is that his stuff keeps ticking up as he fills out. His age is a serious blemish but he lost a lot of development time with the pandemic and TJS. They must really love his stuff.

[Terminator]

24 year old pitcher with an ERA of 4.41 across his two seasons in AA. Averages about 3 innings per start. Lol

[The Cats Ass]

Frasso since June 6

 

9.1 IP, 15 ER

 

5 BB, 2 HBP, one WP --- looks like he has lost his delivery

 

I was starting to wonder why I haven't heard his name mentioned in a while.

[Terminator]

DeJesus reestablishing himself as a 40 FV prospect and Mitch White looking like a serviceable reliever and that trade isn't looking so bad anymore after it looked like a huge L just a month ago.

 

White looked like he was cooked as he dealt with injuries to start the year but the Jays decision to turn him into a reliever looks like a smart one. They cranked up his slider usage which he is throwing a lot harder and basically ditched everything but his fastball. That will get him through the year and he can try starting again next year though he'll probably just be a long reliever moving forward.

[Laika]

DeJesus reestablishing himself as a 40 FV prospect and Mitch White looking like a serviceable reliever and that trade isn't looking so bad anymore after it looked like a huge L just a month ago.

 

White looked like he was cooked as he dealt with injuries to start the year but the Jays decision to turn him into a reliever looks like a smart one. They cranked up his slider usage which he is throwing a lot harder and basically ditched everything but his fastball. That will get him through the year and he can try starting again next year though he'll probably just be a long reliever moving forward.

 

Toronto has made some bad RP/SP decisions in recent years. I thought Hatch should have been a pure RP a couple years ago. There are some other examples. I think they had Merryweather starting a bit back when he first entered the org, which seems insane in hindsight. Pearson...

 

Hopefully they make the right call with Mitchy

[Jimcanuck]

21 year old SS in AA with a 14% BB rate, 19% K rate, and .270 ISO across 279 PA

 

Here is everybody since 2006 with a BB rate over 12%, K rate under 21%, and ISO of .250 or more while being 22 or younger in AA:

 

Trent Grisham 2019

Matt Wieters 2008

Alex Bregman 2016

Alex Gordon 2006

Colby Rasmus 2007

Gunnar Henderson 2022

 

Not a single non-MLB player shows up in the sample. I think Gunnar and Orelvis are the only two at 21 years old, as well. Rest were 22.

 

Trent Grisham is the "worst" on the list but he's not really a comparable as he just scraped out a .250 ISO that year, in 280 PA, and it was out of character. He's really not a good comparison whatsoever.

 

Here are some other guys who are CLOSE but just missed some of the thresholds:

 

Justin Upton 2007

Rafael Devers 2017

Bobby Witt Jr. 2021

Francisco Alvarez 2022

Spencer Torkelson 2021

Coby Mayo 2023

Corbin Carroll 2022

Giancarlo Stanton 2010 (.417 ISO lmao)

Curtis Mead 2022

Cristian Yelich 2013

Eric Duncan 2006

Dylan Carlson 2019

Rowdy Tellez 2016

Cody Bellinger 2016

 

Conclusion: Orelvis Martinez is a likely MLB player and his statistical profile indicates 4+ WAR upside, depending on defensive value.

 

I think most if not all of those guys did it without repeating AA. Orelvis had 492 AA plate appearances in 2022.

[max silver]

I think most if not all of those guys did it without repeating AA. Orelvis had 492 AA plate appearances in 2022.

 

Not sure how that's really relevant. Orelvis likely wasn't ready for AA on his first go round, that's on the front office for an overly aggressive promotion.

[John_Havok]

Not sure how that's really relevant. Orelvis likely wasn't ready for AA on his first go round, that's on the front office for an overly aggressive promotion.

 

Sometimes ya gotta make a guy fail to get him to realize what he has to fix. It's risky, but in this case it seems to have worked so far.

[glory]

Hopefully they promote Orelvis to AAA soon. I guess they are waiting for the trade deadline where they could declutter some of the upper minors with trades and open up spots for promotions, but Martinez is clearly on another level right now. He's ready to be pushed up.

[John_Havok]

Hopefully they promote Orelvis to AAA soon. I guess they are waiting for the trade deadline where they could declutter some of the upper minors with trades and open up spots for promotions, but Martinez is clearly on another level right now. He's ready to be pushed up.

 

I'd let him sit in AA a bit longer. I'd want to get him to the point where the plate discipline AND the power are consistently showing up at the same time before declaring victory at AA. Only 4 extra base hits from June 10th to today. Plate discipline is incredibly improved though. The last thing the Jays need is another 80 raw power guy slapping singles the other way when he should be killing spectators in the Left Field stands with moonshots.

[Jimcanuck]

Not sure how that's really relevant. Orelvis likely wasn't ready for AA on his first go round, that's on the front office for an overly aggressive promotion.

 

Of course its relevant. Some of those guys on the list were promoted aggressively also (they had to have been based on age)

[Jonn]

24 year old pitcher with an ERA of 4.41 across his two seasons in AA. Averages about 3 innings per start. Lol

 

His stuff is elite. At the worst he's going to pitch in the back end of bullpen. Mitch White is still absolutely dog s*** by every measure imaginable.

[Jimcanuck]

His stuff is elite. At the worst he's going to pitch in the back end of bullpen. Mitch White is still absolutely dog s*** by every measure imaginable.

 

No, at worst his recent struggles are due to arm issues (he had elbow surgery in 2020) and he will be out of baseball within a year.

[Terminator]

His stuff is elite. At the worst he's going to pitch in the back end of bullpen. Mitch White is still absolutely dog s*** by every measure imaginable.

 

He's old for the level and he's also not very effective. He's an okay prospect but he's barely a better one than Alex De Jesus. Both might be 40 FVs.

 

Mitch White probably does suck but he looks ok this year as a 1 to 2 inning reliever. I'm not very hopeful he becomes anything better than that but he's already got .7 WAR and counting for the Jays so far in limited action. There's no guarantee Frasso out WARs him.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Terminator

[Spanky__99]

His stuff is elite. At the worst he's going to pitch in the back end of bullpen. Mitch White is still absolutely dog s*** by every measure imaginable.

 

Jonn... this is how the trade looks White/De Jesus > Frasso... just sayin'

[Spanky__99]

Of course its relevant. Some of those guys on the list were promoted aggressively also (they had to have been based on age)

 

True, but Orelvis was younger, it's fine.

[Spanky__99]

No, at worst his recent struggles are due to arm issues (he had elbow surgery in 2020) and he will be out of baseball within a year.

 

He's old for the level and he's also not very effective. He's an okay prospect but he's barely a better one than Alex De Jesus. Both might be 40 FVs.

 

Mitch White probably does suck but he looks ok this year as a 1 to 2 inning reliever. I'm not very hopeful he becomes anything better than that but he's already got .7 WAR and counting for the Jays so far in limited action. There's no guarantee Frasso out WARs him.

 

You guys are reaching, just saying. Trade was fine.

[Jimcanuck]

You guys are reaching, just saying. Trade was fine.

 

Nah, Jonn posted that at worst Frasso is a back end reliever. Not even close to being the worst possible outcome.

[max silver]

His stuff is elite. At the worst he's going to pitch in the back end of bullpen. Mitch White is still absolutely dog s*** by every measure imaginable.

 

This may come as a surprise to you (I already know you are spouting off as per usual without looking anything up first) but Mitch White has actually pitched pretty well for the Blue Jays this season. I would surmise that a 3.38 ERA/3.17 FIP/11.25 K/9 with a 5.0 K/BB shows that White has actually been a solid contributor by every measure imaginable. It's like people only look at the small sample struggles White had as a Blue Jay last season to evaluate him as a pitcher and nothing he did prior to this or after this have any bearing whatsoever on their opinion.

[Jonn]

This may come as a surprise to you (I already know you are spouting off as per usual without looking anything up first) but Mitch White has actually pitched pretty well for the Blue Jays this season. I would surmise that a 3.38 ERA/3.17 FIP/11.25 K/9 with a 5.0 K/BB shows that White has actually been a solid contributor by every measure imaginable. It's like people only look at the small sample struggles White had as a Blue Jay last season to evaluate him as a pitcher and nothing he did prior to this or after this have any bearing whatsoever on their opinion.

 

Please stop lol.

[max silver]

I'd let him sit in AA a bit longer. I'd want to get him to the point where the plate discipline AND the power are consistently showing up at the same time before declaring victory at AA. Only 4 extra base hits from June 10th to today. Plate discipline is incredibly improved though. The last thing the Jays need is another 80 raw power guy slapping singles the other way when he should be killing spectators in the Left Field stands with moonshots.

 

This is speculative in nature but I'd be more inclined to think the lack of extra base power is a function of timing/not being locked in at the plate vs a conscious decision to slap balls the other way. Orelvis wasn't locked in for the first month of the season, and he offered literally nothing at the plate as he didn't walk, provided no power, and wasn't even picking up the odd single. In May he went on a power surge, and the walk rate started ticking up while a few more batted balls were falling in for hits. In June the power largely dried up but the strikeout and walk rates are stellar and he's producing a lot of base hits. I'm very encouraged he is able to contribute offensively when he's not squaring up the baseball with regularity.

[Spanky__99]

Please stop lol.

 

Stop being reasonable about both results? This trade could simply be a nothingburger, or little value in one teams favour, and you're still balls to the wall. Lets go with Thanos take, Atkins should be fired.

[Stangstag]

Stop being reasonable about both results? This trade could simply be a nothingburger, or little value in one teams favour, and you're still balls to the wall. Lets go with Thanos take, Atkins should be fired.

 

Nah man worst case scenario Frasso is the next Liam Hendricks

[Jonn]

Stop being reasonable about both results? This trade could simply be a nothingburger, or little value in one teams favour, and you're still balls to the wall. Lets go with Thanos take, Atkins should be fired.

 

Holy hyperbole Batman! No GM should be fired for one trade. Only their body of work.

 

I would obviously prefer if this trade wasn’t a complete train wreck. But if people are going to use a Nick Frasso bad small sample as any kind of point. You can’t use a Mitch White small good example to say hes been good. Pretty large sample last year and in the minors that he f***ing sucks. And hes been used in the lowest of leverage situations.

[Spanky__99]

Holy hyperbole Batman! No GM should be fired for one trade. Only their body of work.

 

I would obviously prefer if this trade wasn’t a complete train wreck. But if people are going to use a Nick Frasso bad small sample as any kind of point. You can’t use a Mitch White small good example to say hes been good. Pretty large sample last year and in the minors that he f***ing sucks. And hes been used in the lowest of leverage situations.

 

Wat? That's in point to whatever you think?

 

Don't be a moron, man

 

PS. I obviously agree at your first point, man.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Wat? That's in point to whatever you think?

 

Don't be a moron, man

 

PS. I obviously agree at your first point, man.

 

Reported for name calling and the inability to comprehend.

[Stangstag]

Holy hyperbole Batman! No GM should be fired for one trade. Only their body of work.

 

I would obviously prefer if this trade wasn’t a complete train wreck. But if people are going to use a Nick Frasso bad small sample as any kind of point. You can’t use a Mitch White small good example to say hes been good. Pretty large sample last year and in the minors that he f***ing sucks. And hes been used in the lowest of leverage situations.

 

The trade isn’t a train wreck though… not yet at least.