Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[RustyTrombone]

Orelvis always gave Miguel Sano vibes to me (offensively, not necessarily body wise). Sano also was on a 50-something homer pace as a 20-year-old in AA, but also demonstrated more of an ability to walk. I actually think Orelvis may have more potential power than Sano though, which is absurd to think about. Teoscar with a tick more power might be a good comp actually?

 

With Orelvis, I haven't seen many prospects so effortlessly crush fastballs before. I've been watching his PA's even during his hot streak in May, and he still whiffs pretty badly on good breaking stuff. His ugly stretches are going to be ugly.

 

Sano has way more raw power but doesnt have the same ability to make contact IMO so Sanos 80 raw power plays down to like 60 game power. Teos a good comp, dont think Orelvis will flirt with a .300 avg like Teo can cause he doesnt seem to want to go the other way but conversely if he really refines his approach he could be a good BB guy as well to go along with his power, something that Teo doesnt do very much.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hopefully Moreno starts raking soon too.

[Olerud363]

Sano has way more raw power but doesnt have the same ability to make contact IMO so Sanos 80 raw power plays down to like 60 game power. Teos a good comp, dont think Orelvis will flirt with a .300 avg like Teo can cause he doesnt seem to want to go the other way but conversely if he really refines his approach he could be a good BB guy as well to go along with his power, something that Teo doesnt do very much.

 

Who knows. Teoscar was 22 his first year at aa and hit .220. Long way to go for Orelvis and anything could happen. He could be hitting .300 in 4 weeks.

[Laika]

Sano has way more raw power but doesnt have the same ability to make contact IMO so Sanos 80 raw power plays down to like 60 game power. Teos a good comp, dont think Orelvis will flirt with a .300 avg like Teo can cause he doesnt seem to want to go the other way but conversely if he really refines his approach he could be a good BB guy as well to go along with his power, something that Teo doesnt do very much.

 

I dunno man, check out Sano's MiLB average and Orelvis'

 

I would say that at this point Orelvis looks like someone with all of the contact problems Sano has

[Eat My Shatkins]

Leo Jiminez rocking a 145 wRC+ in high A with 100+ PA's

 

Gotta think he'll be heading to AA soon if he keeps that going.

[InsideThePark]

Orelvis power is just bonkers. I do have some concerns about his ability to handle offspeed stuff at the MLB level but he's adjusted well to multiple levels fairly quickly and the jump from A+ to AA has always been said to be the biggest one as you start to see pitchers with more consistent offspeed stuff.

 

Meanwhile almost the entire top end of the Jays pitching farm is now with Vancouver. Looks like they're going to be running a 6 man rotation which with the 6 game series and Monday off gives everyone their 1 day per week. Using the MLB.com list as reference 6 of their top 11 pitching prospects are now the Vancouver rotation. Tiedemann, Robberse, Kloff, Zulueta, Dallas, Palmer. Of the other 5, 2 are pen arms(Hernandez, Danner), 1 is injured and would have been in Vancouver(Van Eyk), 1 is in extended spring(Carter) and then there's Bowden Francis. If we were going to be accurate then Juenger should definitely be bumped up in the midseason list but wow is that Vancouver rotation ever stacked. They've also got Paulino and Gregory who've been good and have been starting who are just forced to come out of the pen to probably piggy back a couple of these guys at this point.

[Ray]

Sano has way more raw power but doesnt have the same ability to make contact IMO so Sanos 80 raw power plays down to like 60 game power. Teos a good comp, dont think Orelvis will flirt with a .300 avg like Teo can cause he doesnt seem to want to go the other way but conversely if he really refines his approach he could be a good BB guy as well to go along with his power, something that Teo doesnt do very much.

 

The one thing batting average is good at is evaluating contact ability for minor leaguers. And it has been proven to have somewhat of a correlation to minor leaguers being able to hit major league pitching. Average in the minor leagues:

 

Orelvis: .259

Teoscar: .269

Sano: .279

 

I know Orelvis is crushing the ball, but a .259 average is really not a good indicator for a top prospect, regardless of how much he’s hitting for power.

[vaff]

 

Not sure if that’s visible, doesn’t appear to be. But this is what I posted:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zipsp2&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=8,d

[gruber92]

Tanner Morris is looking possibly like a nice LHB utility type infielder that could play a role as early as next year sometime, especially if Biggio stays flat.

[RustyTrombone]

The one thing batting average is good at is evaluating contact ability for minor leaguers. And it has been proven to have somewhat of a correlation to minor leaguers being able to hit major league pitching. Average in the minor leagues:

 

Orelvis: .259

Teoscar: .269

Sano: .279

 

I know Orelvis is crushing the ball, but a .259 average is really not a good indicator for a top prospect, regardless of how much he’s hitting for power.

 

Hmm I thought Sano was always a .250 avg and under through out out his milb career. Guess its a bigger warning sign for Orelvis than at first thought.

[RustyTrombone]

I dunno man, check out Sano's MiLB average and Orelvis'

 

I would say that at this point Orelvis looks like someone with all of the contact problems Sano has

 

For some reason I thought Sano was just a big donkey who hit .230 and .240 up the ladder.

[Dagagad]

Moreno 4/5 with two doubles tonight.

[connorp]

I don’t have any Volpe shares so didn’t realize how bad he was doing until now. Woof.

[Daniel Labude]

The one thing batting average is good at is evaluating contact ability for minor leaguers. And it has been proven to have somewhat of a correlation to minor leaguers being able to hit major league pitching. Average in the minor leagues:

 

Orelvis: .259

Teoscar: .269

Sano: .279

 

I know Orelvis is crushing the ball, but a .259 average is really not a good indicator for a top prospect, regardless of how much he’s hitting for power.

 

So here is the fallacy of that line of thinking, it could be a rather deep explanation, but I'll stick to the basics

 

Orelvis

536 ABs before AA

Made AA as a 20 year old

 

Teoscar

1318 ABs before AA

Made AA as a 21 year old

 

Sano

1142 ABs before AA

Made AA as a 20 year old

 

So given this, it is safe to conclude that while Orelvis has a lower batting average it is statistically due to having 50%+ less ABs at lower levels in which he could dominate. If he just stayed another month at A Ball last year he could have put up monster numbers and have like 30 HRs and a 0.400 average over the hot 2 month span. Instead he was promoted and challenged. As has been pointed out Orelvis has met each challenge and once acclimated to the level/challenge he has adjusted and dominated.

 

Looking further to the start of his AA season this year, either he or the team had him working on a 2 strike approach swing adjustment with no leg kick. It showed promise in spring training, but had troublesome results in AA games. After a month (April) they made the adjustment to scrap it and he has taken off again, having a great month of May.

 

Certain things the team or Orelvis have done (swing adjustments/approaches, Covid year, promotions, etc.) played into the lower numbers overall and lower average over the course of the minors. Will he be a 0.350 hitter, probably not, but he has very good bat skills and pitch recognition.

 

What has been seen this month is the ability to take more walks (also 3 HBPs) and hitting the ball the other way. Hasn't been a lot, but he has the ability to. At 20, that will come with more time

 

Orelvis is a very special talent that wasn't pre loaded and ready to go like Vlad and Bo, but he has that ability to be a star if he keeps putting things together. His power and launch angles are elite and he has the ability to make contact, but what is even more reassuring is his ability to adapt and adjust to produce results. This will be key once he gets to the majors. Its a constant battle of adjusting to what teams are doing to you

[Eat My Shatkins]

Was perusing fangraphs and decided to have a look at what Austin Martin and SWR were up to this year.

 

Austin Martin is struggling with an 89 wRC+ in AA and has a .093 ISO

 

Yikes

 

 

SWR has bounced back somewhat in his 2nd year of AA, has a low ERA at 2.20 but it may not last since he has a .192 BABIP / 3.79 FIP / 4.90 xFIP

[RustyTrombone]

Was perusing fangraphs and decided to have a look at what Austin Martin and SWR were up to this year.

 

Austin Martin is struggling with an 89 wRC+ in AA and has a .093 ISO

 

Yikes

 

 

SWR has bounced back somewhat in his 2nd year of AA, has a low ERA at 2.20 but it may not last since he has a .192 BABIP / 3.79 FIP / 4.90 xFIP

 

Austin Martin gonna be looked back at as one of the biggest busts of the 2020 top 10 picks. O/U on his total career war at 10.5, I think I'll take the under.

[JaysAllMighty]

Yikes

 

[Spanky__99]

Yikes

 

 

He's Canadian to boot, lol.

[mphenhef]

 

Orelvis: .259

Teoscar: .269

Sano: .279

 

.

 

Age at the levels has a big say here too. Most of Sano’s time with a better average at AA came when he was 2 years older than Orelvis is now.

[Laika]

Yikes

 

 

I am going to assume Fangraphs twitter's response to this will just be "smh they need to pay minor leaguers more"

[Spanky__99]

[OtisNixonFan]

I am going to assume Fangraphs twitter's response to this will just be "smh they need to pay minor leaguers more"

 

Pretty reasonable response imo. People don't tend to rob minor s*** if they can't pay their own way. It's a problem when minor league athletes make less cash then line cooks.

[The Cats Ass]

Sanford has since signed with the Ottawa Titans in the Frontier League.

[The Cats Ass]

Pretty reasonable response imo. People don't tend to rob minor s*** if they can't pay their own way. It's a problem when minor league athletes make less cash then line cooks.

 

Another source said, could be related to gambling debts. He was given a $597,500 signing bonus in 2019.

[L54]

Sanford sounds like a douchebag and I’d imagine his teammates are happy to see him gone

[Jimcanuck]

Pretty reasonable response imo. People don't tend to rob minor s*** if they can't pay their own way. It's a problem when minor league athletes make less cash then line cooks.

 

Sanford received a $600K signing bonus. It would take a line cook at least 20 years to earn that amount.

[Laika]

Pretty reasonable response imo. People don't tend to rob minor s*** if they can't pay their own way. It's a problem when minor league athletes make less cash then line cooks.

 

not this time, Otis

 

sometimes people are just bags of s***

[Daniel Labude]

[Brownie19]

Who's the best prospect in baseball right now? Is it Corbin Carroll? Dude's numbers are outrageous.

[connorp]

Who's the best prospect in baseball right now? Is it Corbin Carroll? Dude's numbers are outrageous.

 

Sorry going to beat the dead horse here and say Lewis passed Abrams, Volpe, and Marte this year. Not many more exciting ppl in pipeline.

 

Probably Grayson if you don’t mind putting P there. Carroll right there.

 

History has taught us hold off on enshrining “generational” C prospects