Could Smoak have a breakout season in 2016?

[BigCecil]

I am currently losing a wager over the productiveness of Kyle Drabek and Eric Stults over their entire careers. Step up your game.

 

Hang in there....Drabek is going to be elite one day. It might take a 3rd TJ but it will come. He is working out with Ricky Romero now.

[GD]

Hang in there....Drabek is going to be elite one day. It might take a 3rd TJ but it will come. He is working out with Ricky Romero now.

 

f*** elite, I just need ~6 WAR over his entire career

 

Doubt it happens though lol

[Spanky99]

not so sure..... he's been inconsistent, typical of young players, but has shown he can swing a hot bat. he'll get more consistent with experience. i would consider it more likely he has a couple of better seasons than this one, down the road.

 

Not at that walk rate Jim, get it in your head.

[Spanky99]

I Give Up!!!

[Jimcanuck]

I Give Up!!!

 

dont be such a weakling

[AdamGreenwood]

Eat it all you Cola doubters.

[Grant77]

Smoak seems to have consistently come up huge in a bunch of really important situations for us

 

Heh

[abola2121]

Looks like I was a year off.

[John_Havok]

Looks like I was a year off.

 

His contact rate has increased dramatically this year, resulting (so far) in pretty much halving his strikeout rate.

 

That's really the only meaningful difference I can see in his batted ball profile

[Caper]

Wow. It just goes to show. I thought Smoak was an inexcusable mistake of a contract. I hated him more then anyone on the team.

[Dr. Dinger]

Smoak has upped his contact by nearly 10%, doubled his power, and halved his K rate. And his BABIP is completely normal! He just suddenly became a really good hitter, and it makes no sense. Obviously he can't stay this good, but there's nothing that screams regression in his profile right now except for a clearly unsustainable .306 ISO.

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

His contact rate has increased dramatically this year, resulting (so far) in pretty much halving his strikeout rate.

 

That's really the only meaningful difference I can see in his batted ball profile

 

Well that's a damn important difference. Just from that he's turned from Chris Carter to Edwin Encarnacion

[TBJ12]

Well that's a damn important difference. Just from that he's turned from Chris Carter to Edwin Encarnacion

 

Nearly 33% K rate last season and holding strong around 18% this season. Shatkins is good.

[John_Havok]

Well that's a damn important difference. Just from that he's turned from Chris Carter to Edwin Encarnacion

 

Yes it's an important difference, but what changed to lead to the improvement?

 

If anyone told me this year Smoak would cut his k rate in half for no apparant reason i would have laughed myself into a coma.

 

I can't think of anyone off the top of my head that was riding a 30+ % K rate and without warning basically cut it in half the following season, not to mention with such a dramatic improvement in ISO, which is wholly unsustainable unless your last name is Bonds, McGwire or Ruth.

[THANOS]

Yes it's an important difference, but what changed to lead to the improvement?

 

If anyone told me this year Smoak would cut his k rate in half for no apparant reason i would have laughed myself into a coma.

 

I can't think of anyone off the top of my head that was riding a 30+ % K rate and without warning basically cut it in half the following season, not to mention with such a dramatic improvement in ISO, which is wholly unsustainable unless your last name is Bonds, McGwire or Ruth.

 

Apparently, his approach this season is "sit breaking ball and adjust to FB with < 2 strikes, then shorten up drastically with 2 strikes"

[Grant77]

Smoak has upped his contact by nearly 10%, doubled his power, and halved his K rate. And his BABIP is completely normal! He just suddenly became a really good hitter, and it makes no sense. Obviously he can't stay this good, but there's nothing that screams regression in his profile right now except for a clearly unsustainable .306 ISO.

 

I want to agree, but people said the same things about Bautista and Encarnacion in their breakout seasons. You just never know sometimes.

[gruber92]

Apparently, his approach this season is "sit breaking ball and adjust to FB with < 2 strikes, then shorten up drastically with 2 strikes"

 

That is exactly the approach to take given he was being fed breaking balls 80% of the time last year. He's done a nice job with it.

[Grant77]

That is exactly the approach to take given he was being fed breaking balls 80% of the time last year. He's done a nice job with it.

 

He got 28.6% breaking balls actually, but close enough.

[KingKat]

Nearly 33% K rate last season and holding strong around 18% this season. Shatkins is good.

 

How much credit should se really give Shatking here? I mean I get that even after all this time they liked his batted ball profile and I get that they wanted to sign some insurance giving the uncertainty around Edwin but is it sensible to say to believe that the front office predicted that he would halve his k rate? That's not a small improvement. Did they really think that was something they could coach into him? I'll give the front office some credit for still seeing some upside in him but how likely did they think this kind of improvement was? Would it have been reasonalbe of them to expect this? I don't really think so. I think a lot of credit has to go to Smoak himself for this improbable improvement. It would be amazing to think the front office has some sort of insight that allowed them to predict this but at this point there's no actual evidence to support that.

[Brownie19]

Apparently, his approach this season is "sit breaking ball and adjust to FB with < 2 strikes, then shorten up drastically with 2 strikes"

 

This seems really odd to me for a few reasons.

 

1. I always assumed he was simply unable to hit curveballs (ala C.Rasmus) because clearly over the past 2 years, he should have been sitting curveball with 2 strikes (adjusting to the fastball). I would have guessed he was simply trying to be more aggressive early when he got the fastball....trying to avoid getting down in the count where they can bury him with curve balls he can't hit; and

 

2. I suspect it's incredibly hard to sit curveball and "adjust" to the fastball - especially given how much harder pitchers throw these days. I'd expect if this was his approach that we'd see him late on the FB quite a bit. Can't say I've noticed that.

 

Regardless - Just keep doing what you're doing Smoak.

[Brownie19]

How much credit should se really give Shatking here? I mean I get that even after all this time they liked his batted ball profile and I get that they wanted to sign some insurance giving the uncertainty around Edwin but is it sensible to say to believe that the front office predicted that he would halve his k rate? That's not a small improvement. Did they really think that was something they could coach into him? I'll give the front office some credit for still seeing some upside in him but how likely did they think this kind of improvement was? Would it have been reasonalbe of them to expect this? I don't really think so. I think a lot of credit has to go to Smoak himself for this improbable improvement. It would be amazing to think the front office has some sort of insight that allowed them to predict this but at this point there's no actual evidence to support that.

 

Good question. I wonder if the FO went to him with suggestions on a new approach - or set him up with someone different to help change his approach (which is something you'd do in the offseason). Do they do things like that? or it that type of thing all up to the player?

 

Maybe they just went to him and said they were going to cut him lose unless he made improvements.

 

I'd love to know.

[KingKat]

Good question. I wonder if the FO went to him with suggestions on a new approach - or set him up with someone different to help change his approach (which is something you'd do in the offseason). Do they do things like that? or it that type of thing all up to the player?

 

Maybe they just went to him and said they were going to cut him lose unless he made improvements.

 

I'd love to know.

 

Yeah... This is where old fashioned non-analytic baseball journalism could provide some insights and I think I would trust Shatkins to be fairly sincere about what they really expected from Smoak if anyone where to ask.

[Governator]

I don't think they could have predicted his K rate would be cut in half and there's no way they expected this type of return but perhaps they saw potential for Smoak to be a poor man's Chris Davis with a full time gig. We often forget that $4MM/yr isn't a very big contract in the overall picture and the possibility of losing EE/Bautista was sort of a big deal back then.

[KingKat]

I don't think they could have predicted his K rate would be cut in half and there's no way they expected this type of return but perhaps they saw potential for Smoak to be a poor man's Chris Davis with a full time gig. We often forget that $4MM/yr isn't a very big contract in the overall picture and the possibility of losing EE/Bautista was sort of a big deal back then.

 

I also suspect that they saw something in his ability to field throws at first base. I kind of wonder if there's some significant previously unnacounted value in that skill (like pitch framing a few years back).

[TheHurl]

I don't think they could have predicted his K rate would be cut in half and there's no way they expected this type of return but perhaps they saw potential for Smoak to be a poor man's Chris Davis with a full time gig. We often forget that $4MM/yr isn't a very big contract in the overall picture and the possibility of losing EE/Bautista was sort of a big deal back then.

 

You also have to remember that when they started negotiating with him he was at least a 100 wRC+ guy. It was after the contract that he had like a .250 OBP and 75 wRC+. I always think back to JFaS talking so positively about Smoak when he came over from Seattle. It was all about FB/HR ratios I think and he was positive he'd hit 30. I can't say I saw it coming, it also wouldn't surprise me if suddenly he's 2016 Smoak moving forward.

[Spanky99]

He got 28.6% breaking balls actually, but close enough.

 

lol

[Brownie19]

You also have to remember that when they started negotiating with him he was at least a 100 wRC+ guy. It was after the contract that he had like a .250 OBP and 75 wRC+. I always think back to JFaS talking so positively about Smoak when he came over from Seattle. It was all about FB/HR ratios I think and he was positive he'd hit 30. I can't say I saw it coming, it also wouldn't surprise me if suddenly he's 2016 Smoak moving forward.

 

At some point we should expect pitchers to make another adjustment against Smoak and his new approach (just as pitchers are against Judge, who's K% continues to rise). We'll see if he can counter that.

[HERPDERP]

At some point we should expect pitchers to make another adjustment against Smoak and his new approach (just as pitchers are against Judge, who's K% continues to rise). We'll see if he can counter that.

 

Honestly pitchers can't do much against him, the guy isn't pull happy and is crushing everything. I guess the only thing you can hope for is to throw sliders in on him.

[John_Havok]

Relevant from Fangraphs

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-urgent-need-for-a-justin-smoak-article/

[HomerSimpson]

Currently .949OPS. .949 OPS is basically good enough to let the guy go participate in the all-star game