Could Smoak have a breakout season in 2016?

[BigCecil]

Yea I don't think his future is going to be much more than what we're seeing, though his defense is still outstanding. I'd bet any $ Colabello couldn't turn that DP last night (The lefty advantage of turning 2).

 

Totally agree. The numbers on D for him aren't kind but my eyes tell me he is very effective on picks and making smart plays like he did leading Goins at 2B and not hitting the runner coming in....the importance of the DP at that time cant be understated.

 

You just cant have a guy who K's 2-4 times a night without the upside hitting 5th.

[BigCecil]

Of course anything is possible, but it's important to realize how extremely rare it is to have a hitter emerge as an elite talent that late in his career... the fact that we have two is downright remarkable.

 

2.5 if you count Cola and think he is a now a legit stick.

[Brownie19]

Yea I don't think his future is going to be much more than what we're seeing, though his defense is still outstanding. I'd bet any $ Colabello couldn't turn that DP last night (The lefty advantage of turning 2).

 

On the flip side - I don't think Cola racks up the golden sombrero last night either. Very surprised Gibby didn't pinch hit Cola after Smoak struck out 3 times and comes up with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

[BigCecil]

On the flip side - I don't think Cola racks up the golden sombrero last night either. Very surprised Gibby didn't pinch hit Cola after Smoak struck out 3 times and comes up with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

 

Cola K rate is same as Smoaks ...26% and his BB rate is less at 6. He has been BABIP lucky at .330. Smoak .254

 

Cola is no panacea and I think he is worse on D than Smoak.

[Governator]

On the flip side - I don't think Cola racks up the golden sombrero last night either. Very surprised Gibby didn't pinch hit Cola after Smoak struck out 3 times and comes up with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

 

I think pinch hitting for the slew of s*** we have for bats at 2B was probably more on Gibby's mind. Kind of surprised he didn't pinch hit for Barney in the 6th instead of Carerra (To his credit drew a walk).

[Governator]

Smoak's bat feels a lot like Colby Rasmus to me (batting left anyway). Mad pop when he connects, strikes out a ton, can't hit a breaking ball and yet still feels like he should be much better.

[Dr. Dinger]

2.5 if you count Cola and think he is a now a legit stick.

 

I think Colabello probably won't even be in the majors this time next year. There's nothing about his line that looks at all sustainable, and the power is pedestrian.

[BigCecil]

Smoak's bat feels a lot like Colby Rasmus to me (batting left anyway). Mad pop when he connects, strikes out a ton, can't hit a breaking ball and yet still feels like he should be much better.

 

nailed it.

 

Colby is an enigma. The only difference between them is Smoaks pop comes from his strength and size....Colby comes from what can look like one of the sweetest most effortless swings in MLB 20 ish times a season.

[BigCecil]

Cola K rate is same as Smoaks ...26% and his BB rate is less at 6. He has been BABIP lucky at .330. Smoak .254

 

Cola is no panacea and I think he is worse on D than Smoak.

 

I think Colabello probably won't even be in the majors this time next year. There's nothing about his line that looks at all sustainable, and the power is pedestrian.

 

That's a fair perspective and good for those screaming for Cola (which doesn't include me) to be in the line up. I still think we should have kept Danny V over Cola.

[Dr. Dinger]

nailed it.

 

Colby is an enigma. The only difference between them is Smoaks pop comes from his strength and size....Colby comes from what can look like one of the sweetest most effortless swings in MLB 20 ish times a season.

 

Hey guys, just FYI, Colby had a 5 WAR season for us and is going to finish with about 2.5 this year despite being platooned quite a bit. He is a good player, who for some reason, some fans think should be a consistent all-star. For his career, he's averaged about 3 WAR per 162 games. He is a good player, with well above average power for a CF.

[Stangstag]

Hey guys, just FYI, Colby had a 5 WAR season for us and is going to finish with about 2.5 this year despite being platooned quite a bit. He is a good player, who for some reason, some fans think should be a consistent all-star. For his career, he's averaged about 3 WAR per 162 games. He is a good player, with well above average power for a CF.

 

I don't think his Defense plays in CF anymore. He's just not as good as he used to be 2-3 years ago

[AdamGreenwood]

Cola K rate is same as Smoaks ...26% and his BB rate is less at 6. He has been BABIP lucky at .330. Smoak .254

 

Cola is no panacea and I think he is worse on D than Smoak.

 

Exactly. with a .254 BABIP for 2015, he's almost five points below his career BABIP of .259

He's just been unlucky for the first 2600 bats of his career.

[Governator]

Hey guys, just FYI, Colby had a 5 WAR season for us and is going to finish with about 2.5 this year despite being platooned quite a bit. He is a good player, who for some reason, some fans think should be a consistent all-star. For his career, he's averaged about 3 WAR per 162 games. He is a good player, with well above average power for a CF.

 

Bat... we said bat....

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't think his Defense plays in CF anymore. He's just not as good as he used to be 2-3 years ago

 

He seems like a pretty average CF judging by the metrics we have. His DRS is -1 but his UZR/150 is 17.7 in CF this year. In fact, his UZR/150 is considerably higher in CF than in the corner spots, where he has mostly played this year. He seems to be a better CF than LF/RF, which makes sense considering he's been playing there his whole career. He's by no means a disaster in CF.

[Dr. Dinger]

Bat... we said bat....

 

Colby has a career .327 wOBA as a CF, Smoak has a career .308 wOBA as a 1B. Colby is an above average hitter at his position, Smoak is a below average hitter for his position, although his power has played well this year. Given 500 PAs, I think Smoak can easily hit 20-25 HR playing half his games at RC. I don't really see anything that leads me to believe a larger breakout is coming though, he's a flawed hitter with good power, that's it.

[BigCecil]

Hey guys, just FYI, Colby had a 5 WAR season for us and is going to finish with about 2.5 this year despite being platooned quite a bit. He is a good player, who for some reason, some fans think should be a consistent all-star. For his career, he's averaged about 3 WAR per 162 games. He is a good player, with well above average power for a CF.

 

Um...ya. Pretty sure I know what his WAR was in 2013 for us....and what he is/was. And why we didn't resign him.

 

We were talking about his bat. And I watched him a couple nights ago in MM inn LF flailing away on chasing down a couple balls. His D has slid.

[KingKat]

He seems like a pretty average CF judging by the metrics we have. His DRS is -1 but his UZR/150 is 17.7 in CF this year. In fact, his UZR/150 is considerably higher in CF than in the corner spots, where he has mostly played this year. He seems to be a better CF than LF/RF, which makes sense considering he's been playing there his whole career. He's by no means a disaster in CF.

 

Yeah his last season in Toronto was really bad but his explanation that the turf had f***ed him up seems to hold water.

[Dr. Dinger]

Um...ya. Pretty sure I know what his WAR was in 2013 for us....and what he is/was. And why we didn't resign him..

 

We didn't re-sign him because he was a free agent and we can't force him to stay here.

[KingKat]

We didn't re-sign him because he was a free agent and we can't force him to stay here.

 

Well... I don't think it's exactly science-fiction to think the team was done with him. His late season benching surely suggested as much.

[Governator]

Colby has a career .327 wOBA as a CF, Smoak has a career .308 wOBA as a 1B. Colby is an above average hitter at his position, Smoak is a below average hitter for his position, although his power has played well this year. Given 500 PAs, I think Smoak can easily hit 20-25 HR playing half his games at RC. I don't really see anything that leads me to believe a larger breakout is coming though, he's a flawed hitter with good power, that's it.

 

I understand where they rank per position, it's a simple comparison that they both are similar in how they make contact. Take a look at Smoak's season stats and compare it to Rasmus' last two. I'm not comparing careers or anything of that nature, just that we subbed out Rasmus' bat and basically still have Rasmus' bat. He's Colby Rasmus 2.0 at the plate without the flow.

[BigCecil]

Colby has a career .327 wOBA as a CF, Smoak has a career .308 wOBA as a 1B. Colby is an above average hitter at his position, Smoak is a below average hitter for his position, although his power has played well this year. Given 500 PAs, I think Smoak can easily hit 20-25 HR playing half his games at RC. I don't really see anything that leads me to believe a larger breakout is coming though, he's a flawed hitter with good power, that's it.

 

I think your Smoak and Cola ceiling assessment is correct.

[Dr. Dinger]

I understand where they rank per position, it's a simple comparison that they both are similar in how they make contact. Take a look at Smoak's season stats and compare it to Rasmus' last two. I'm not comparing careers or anything of that nature, just that we subbed out Rasmus' bat and basically still have Rasmus' bat. He's Colby Rasmus 2.0 at the plate without the flow.

 

I have no problem with that, a .325 wOBA power bat is perfectly fine for a 6/7 hitter.

[BigCecil]

We didn't re-sign him because he was a free agent and we can't force him to stay here.

 

After 2014 we were done with him. He was benched late season for a reason. We cant know for sure but id bet my house (and its a nice one) that no attempt was even made to resign.

[BigCecil]

He seems like a pretty average CF judging by the metrics we have. His DRS is -1 but his UZR/150 is 17.7 in CF this year. In fact, his UZR/150 is considerably higher in CF than in the corner spots, where he has mostly played this year. He seems to be a better CF than LF/RF, which makes sense considering he's been playing there his whole career. He's by no means a disaster in CF.

 

His number on D have come up from 2014 but he is still below avg. I wont pretend I understand them as well as you but when Ive watched HOU this year (and thats often...even went to 3 games at MM) he just doesn't look like the player we had in CF in 2013 anymore to me. Not saying he is horrible but the guy was over 5.

[Dr. Dinger]

Strikes out a tonne, average defensively..not much of a loss, many players can fill that void Colby leaves.

 

His power negates his strikeouts. Every team could use a 2.5 WAR OF who can play a passable CF and has 20 HR power.

[Dr. Dinger]

But not his sub-par defense.....lots of better options then Rasmus.

 

What evidence do you have that he's a subpar defender in CF? The metrics all indicate he's the definition of average.

[Governator]

What evidence do you have that he's a subpar defender in CF? The metrics all indicate he's the definition of average.

 

It's irrelevant, he wouldn't replace Pillar right now anyway and I doubt he's worth more than Revere as a left fielder. I'm not sure every team could use him. I don't think anyone here under appreciates Rasmus if that's what you're defending.

[BigCecil]

His power negates his strikeouts. Every team could use a 2.5 WAR OF who can play a passable CF and has 20 HR power.

 

For a reasonable cost. Pillar will be 3.5 WAR this year for 500k.

[Dr. Dinger]

For a reasonable cost. Pillar will be 3.5 WAR this year for 500k.

 

Hey, I like Pillar. I met him and he's a very humble guy who's putting together a nice season. However it's important to maintain some perspective. Rasmus is a much better hitter and Pillar is unlikely to have such a remarkably good defensive season next year, so I wouldn't pencil him in for 3+ WAR going forward. It's going to be almost impossible for him to be a consistent 3 WAR player if he's going to remain a sub-.300 wOBA bat.

[BigCecil]

Hey, I like Pillar. I met him and he's a very humble guy who's putting together a nice season. However it's important to maintain some perspective. Rasmus is a much better hitter and Pillar is unlikely to have such a remarkably good defensive season next year, so I wouldn't pencil him in for 3+ WAR going forward. It's going to be almost impossible for him to be a consistent 3 WAR player if he's going to remain a sub-.300 wOBA bat.

 

Pillar twice has taken time with my boy when Hudson was 5 and 6 to talk to him and sign balls...pose for pics with him etc. Very soft spoken guy. Wish he could hit more but don't think he ever will. Pitch selection issue. I agree pencilling him in for a 3 fWAR is unwise. I also think Colby has seen his best days.