Mark Shapiro leading candidate to replace Beeston

[Laika]

I was a fan of the Swisher and Bourn signings.

 

The "Bourn relied on his legs and players who do that fall apart at 30" thing isn't a real thing. Dave Cameron looked at it a couple years ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/.

 

What is this s***, evidence and data? frig off!

[reedjohnsonfan]

If I were the Jays I'd offer him one year at $30M+ and see if he bites. He might say yes because:

 

1. The 2016 team with him as an ace would have a very good chance to win.

2. With this offense he has a chance to pad his stats for a year then take that into free agency.

3. Any long-term contract he signs would likely be back loaded, he gets a huge pay day for 2016 under this scenario.

4. A one year delay on free agency shouldn't impact his ability to get a huge contract after that too much, unless he gets injured.

 

There's no chance he bites on a 1 year deal.

[dineke]

If I were the Jays I'd offer him one year at $30M+ and see if he bites. He might say yes because:

 

1. The 2016 team with him as an ace would have a very good chance to win.

2. With this offense he has a chance to pad his stats for a year then take that into free agency.

3. Any long-term contract he signs would likely be back loaded, he gets a huge pay day for 2016 under this scenario.

4. A one year delay on free agency shouldn't impact his ability to get a huge contract after that too much, unless he gets injured.

 

Pie in the sky.

[TwistedLogic]

If I were the Jays I'd offer him one year at $30M+ and see if he bites. He might say yes because:

 

1. The 2016 team with him as an ace would have a very good chance to win.

2. With this offense he has a chance to pad his stats for a year then take that into free agency.

3. Any long-term contract he signs would likely be back loaded, he gets a huge pay day for 2016 under this scenario.

4. A one year delay on free agency shouldn't impact his ability to get a huge contract after that too much, unless he gets injured.

 

Why would he take a 30M contract over one year and risk injury when he can pick up a 30M contract over 7 years and be set for life? 210/7 is not far-fetched for what Price will make in FA, and he might actually get more than that.

[Brownie19]

What is this s***, evidence and data? frig off!

 

My thoughts exactly. What kind of a world is this where I can't use a theory (which common sense would generally support) to make a point? Damn all these stats and evidence.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I was a fan of the Swisher and Bourn signings.

 

The "Bourn relied on his legs and players who do that fall apart at 30" thing isn't a real thing. Dave Cameron looked at it a couple years ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/ .

 

Even if you did believe Bourn would decline faster than most players, a four year commitment is not that much for a player entering his age 30 season. He looked like a legitimate true talent 4 win player following 2012. A fast projected decline would be something like 3, 2, 2, 1 over the four years. ~8 wins for $48MM is fine. The signing looked like a great late-offseason value buy by Cleveland and nothing could have predicted an immediate collapse. Nick Swisher is a similar story.

 

I read it quickly. Thanks for the article. It is evidence but remember he didn't use that many players so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Also Henderson, Ichiro, and Raines (hopefully) are hall of famers, and Lofton is maybe a borderline HOFer. That's a big part of the sample I'm not sure comparing Bourn, Crawford etc to those players is a good way to look at it. With Bourn if he stops running wild, which he did, he's not a very good player. I do agree he fell off way faster than expected though, of course.

[Brownie19]

If I were the Jays I'd offer him one year at $30M+ and see if he bites. He might say yes because:

 

1. The 2016 team with him as an ace would have a very good chance to win.

2. With this offense he has a chance to pad his stats for a year then take that into free agency.

3. Any long-term contract he signs would likely be back loaded, he gets a huge pay day for 2016 under this scenario.

4. A one year delay on free agency shouldn't impact his ability to get a huge contract after that too much, unless he gets injured.

 

The Jays would have to offer him like 1 year $50M - and even at that, I doubt he'd consider it.

[o2cui2i]

Price is going to get 200M+ in the off season. he won't risk getting injured next year and miss out on that pay day.

[ValiantJaysFan]

I'm already having nightmares about Buck saying "Mark Shapiro" a million times a game. And then Tabby chiming in with anecdotes about Cleveland and how much he loves it there.

[ElNik2013]

So since this past off season, ownership has allowed the Blue Jays' current GM to spend 80M on Russell Martin and to trade away a good chunk of a good farm system in exchange for some key MLB players who are helping the team to contend for the first time in 20+ years, yet ownership will fire said GM?

[Trouba95]

No more five year policy. K thxs.

[Hipfan]

No more five year policy. K thxs.

 

This...such a stupid policy. I understand you don't want many contracts like this, but some guys deserve it. If you want to have the best players, you have to pay for them.

[Nightmaul]

This...such a stupid policy. I understand you don't want many contracts like this, but some guys deserve it. If you want to have the best players, you have to pay for them.

 

It's actually pretty smart unless you're dim-sighted, then I guess you might think it's stupid.

[ElNik2013]

They do have some of the best players!

[RealAccountant]

Jays have put in a lot of development in AA. It would be stupid to let him go to another team now with all the mistakes he has made with us. I was for firing him earlier but looking at it now he has improved a lot

[ElNik2013]

So Rosenthal had an article about AA (pls delete if already posted):

 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-alex-anthopoulos-gm-dave-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-josh-donaldson-081915

 

 

He seems to think AA will have no problem finding another GM job.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

It's actually pretty smart unless you're dim-sighted, then I guess you might think it's stupid.

 

 

 

Dunno why posters need to make insulting remarks!

Good grief!

[TwistedLogic]

So Rosenthal had an article about AA (pls delete if already posted):

 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-alex-anthopoulos-gm-dave-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-josh-donaldson-081915

 

 

He seems to think AA will have no problem finding another GM job.

 

Because he won't. Even his harshest critics can't deny that he's better than a third of the GMs currently occupying major league front offices. Plus, you know some rich owner is going to tunnel in on his ability to acquire superstars seemingly at will.

[GD]

Of course AA will get another GM job. Dave f***ing Stewart has a GM job, lol. At the very least he'll get a very high position that will eventually lead back into a GM job. Really just depends what jobs open up this winter.

[glory]

So Rosenthal had an article about AA (pls delete if already posted):

 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-alex-anthopoulos-gm-dave-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-josh-donaldson-081915

 

 

He seems to think AA will have no problem finding another GM job.

 

He will get another GM job. He acquired Donaldson, Martin, Travis, Price, Tulo, etc, in a span of 9 months. It's perfect timing for him to be a free agent.

[ElNik2013]

Because he won't. Even his harshest critics can't deny that he's better than a third of the GMs currently occupying major league front offices. Plus, you know some rich owner is going to tunnel in on his ability to acquire superstars seemingly at will.

 

 

 

For sure. But Rosenthal isn't just saying he'll get another GM job because he's not one of the worst GMs in MLB. Or because "Dave f***ing Stewart has a GM job". I think he's saying he could be highly sought-after.

 

For the record, I don't think ownership will let him go. If they did, they're even dumber than I thought.

 

By pursuing Ken Williams and Dan Duquette last off season, both of whom are former GMs, they sent out the message that they weren't happy with AA's work yet they allowed him to make major transactions since then.

 

Now, the team is in full contention, with a nice increase in ticket sales, ratings and interest and they're gonna let him go?

 

Doesn't make sense to me.

[spats]

Why wouldn't the Jays lock AA up for a few years. He stocked the farm system with top level prospects and used some of them to acquire players like Donaldson, Tulo, Price, Lowe and Revere. Outside of the Miami and the Mets deals, which everyone applauded at the time, he has done a masterful job of getting talented players while handicapped by the budget..some by trade, others as waiver claims - Cola, Estrada, Travis, Smoak.

[ElNik2013]

Why wouldn't the Jays lock AA up for a few years. He stocked the farm system with top level prospects and used some of them to acquire players like Donaldson, Tulo, Price, Lowe and Revere. Outside of the Miami and the Mets deals, which everyone applauded at the time, he has done a masterful job of getting talented players while handicapped by the budget..some by trade, others as waiver claims - Cola, Estrada, Travis, Smoak.

 

 

I, and others, would disagree that the Marlins and Mets deals were applauded by "everyone". But let's not get into that, just wanted to clarify it.

 

You have to add Yan Gomes and Mike Napoli to the negative side. However, one can bring up Escobar and Rasmus as positives as well. The Happ deal was turned into Saunders even though it seemed like an overpay at the time. Too bad Saunders got hurt, but at least he is arb-eligible for another season.

[GD]

If we get Shapiro, I have enough faith in whatever happens after that.

[ElNik2013]

My issue is mainly with how ownership has handled, or mishandled, this process.

 

I think it's a good thing Reindorf wouldn't let Kenny Williams go. Better lucky than good.

[guylaroche5]

It's actually pretty smart unless you're dim-sighted, then I guess you might think it's stupid.

 

Making it a public policy is idiotic. If the front office sees that a player is asking for a ridiculous contract then just say no. Why do we have to generalize everything with some stupid policy that makes us look cheap? It's not that hard to handle these things on a case by case basis and just reject the ridiculous 200mil+ contracts while accepting the more reasonable ones.

[burlingtonbandit]

Shapiro just seems like due diligence. I'm sure theyve contacted 5 other guys who just haven't been reported.

 

Whoever gets hired one of the first improvements they need to make is getting better medical equipment in RC and Dunedin. Its embarrassing how s***** and old the equipment they use is. Don't think its a coincidence players seem to take longer to heal playing for this organization.

[Jayzfan79]

No more five year policy. K thxs.

 

you could probably blame Godfrey on this one for the V.Wells contract.

[GD]

Shapiro just seems like due diligence. I'm sure theyve contacted 5 other guys who just haven't been reported.

 

Thanks for the update, tips

[burlingtonbandit]

Thanks for the update, tips

 

lol shutup