Ryan Goins' New Swing

[TwistedLogic]

As I was browsing over the Blue Jays subreddit, I came across an interesting thread discussing Ryan Goins' recent adjustments at the plate, and how his offensive numbers had improved as a result. I should preface this by saying that these adjustments seem to have been made very recently, and because it has only been talked about by Buck and Pat during a game, with nothing else really written on it so far, the overall information we have is very minimal. With that being said, I do believe it's something that we could still take a look at and keep an eye on going forward.

 

The thread I just referred to can be found here, but this specific interaction vaguely discusses the mechanical adjustments in question:

 

 

With this information in mind, I went to Goins' game logs (which can be found here at FanGraphs) to see if I could pinpoint an uptick in his offensive numbers. It does look like there was a sudden spike in his numbers beginning at the start of July, with a 2-2 game against the Tigers on 7/3/15.

 

After that, I went to take a look at the limited amount of video we have access to via MLB.com and sure enough, there is a very vivid adjustment that was made.

 

In this clip from June 18, you can see his old batting stance, where he sets with the bat in the air above his head, and there is constant movement in the hands and wrists until the swing is made (click the image to be taken to the video):

 

http://i.imgur.com/sm8q92e.gif

 

In this clip from July 3, the date on which his current hot streak seems to have begun, we can see him working with the new adjustments, even if he hasn't fully gotten used to the new mechanics; he lifts his bat once before putting it back down as if he isn't sure if Sanchez has begun his delivery, and when he does prepare to swing, there is still constant movement in the wrists:

 

http://i.imgur.com/msHGlpq.gif

 

Finally, we have this clip from August 3, where the adjustments seem to be fully incorporated, and he looks very comfortable with the new swing. He keeps the bat in a completely rested position on his shoulder until Santana prepares to deliver the pitch, and when he does lift and prepare to swing, there is almost no movement in the wrists before he drives the bat fluidly through the zone:

 

http://i.imgur.com/9SOQnSv.gif

 

Taking a look at the numbers, Goins has posted a 165 wRC+ (off a .423 BABIP) with an even K-BB rate (both 18.6%) in 43 plate appearances since July 3.

 

 

This sample size is still fairly microscopic and we shouldn't really take much from all of this other than the fact that Goins has obviously made an adjustment, and it seems to have worked so far. Whether he's in some sort of honeymoon period with the new mechanics, whether it's a random hot streak that has coincided with the change, and whether or not this will result in any real long-term gains, we don't know yet, and we probably won't have that answer for a while. We've seen it many times where guys have made adjustments in the past that have seemed to work for a short period, and then they've fallen back to where they began and nobody talked about it again. We've also seen what a reliable timing mechanism can do for hitters, with Jose Bautista being the prime example.

 

There's a good likelihood that Ryan Goins will never become a guy who bats above league average on a consistent basis. Thankfully for a guy with his skill set, that isn't necessarily what he needs to succeed. If Goins could ever develop into a player that can reliably post a 90-95 wRC+, becoming an asset similar to Kevin Pillar, I'm sure the Blue Jays would be very happy with that result.

Edited August 6, 2015 by TwistedLogic

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah perhaps his adjustment can improve his 60 wRC+ but I doubt it ever makes him a viable starter. I think you just take what you can get out of him. He's still a great guy to have on your bench as he is a truly plus defender in the infield.

[HERPDERP]

As the resident Ryan Goins fan, I welcome this post.

 

Now if only he moved closer to the plate so he can hit those away pitches...

 

Goins may not be an all star quality 2B, nor me he be a regular to beat out Travis...

 

but I assure you, Goins WILL stick.

[Dr. Dinger]

Don't hold your breath on him ever becoming a league average bat.

[DuckDuckGose]

When Gibbons was on the radio earlier today he noted that Goins did change his swing but said the biggest difference was he was swinging at better pitches.

[King]

Can Ryan Goins Stick?

[Dr. Dinger]

When Gibbons was on the radio earlier today he noted that Goins did change his swing but said the biggest difference was he was swinging at better pitches.

 

He's had some nice ABs lately. Clearly he's become aware that taking walks behooves him with the top of our order being so power-heavy. Hopefully that's something he can really make a part of his game.

[baubau]

So, what you're saying is, trade Travis - we've found our future 2B? YES!

 

Jokes aside, I like Goins. I find him VERY frustrating as a hitter but the dude seems nice, knows his role and is great defensively. It isn't his fault that the team kept on running him out there. Its great to know that he's working on his weakness and open to change as oppose to other players in the past (looking at your Rasmus!).

 

With that being said, I'd agree with Dinger. Be surprised if he ever becomes a league average bat.

[Governator]

Can Ryan Goins Stick?

 

yea with just a little bubble gum he can stick to the bench nicely.

[Brownie19]

Very cool man.....although I got stuck looking at how fat Bartolo is for like 3 minutes there...

[Brownie19]

Wouldn't it be nice if some of the hard work Goins is putting in rubbed off on fat ass Navarro.

[Governator]

Isn't that how Adam Lind kind of set up as well? Started by keeping bat close until he was comfortable that the pitcher was delivering to his timing.

[Governator]

We're really going through this again? Oh

 

Sometimes eye tests can be more useful than fangraphs.

[DuckDuckGose]

He's had some nice ABs lately. Clearly he's become aware that taking walks behooves him with the top of our order being so power-heavy. Hopefully that's something he can really make a part of his game.

 

#'s show he's reduced his swings at balls outside the zone as well. Using TL's date of July 3rd he's at 20.4 % O-Swing % vs his 2015 O-swing % of 29.3%. That's actually a huge positive adjustment.

[o2cui2i]

[fireballW]

Hopefully he doesn't get a chance to play long and consistently enough for us to find out if his adjustment was successful or if it is just another SSS blip.

[admin]

He's looked really good at the plate the last couple weeks. I was going to bump his thread. I doubt it lasts long term but we'll see. If he could hit like .260/.320 that would be a pretty valuable piece.

[HERPDERP]

This has nothing to do with scouting/stats. Not every swing change can be taken seriously. Many players change their swing multiple times a season and the vast majority of the time, it doesn't mean anything at all. People get excited about swing changes because we generally only read articles about the successful ones.

 

Numerous articles get written whenever a Bautista or JD Martinez breaks out because of adjustments. Nobody chronicles the various adjustments that a utility player made that didn't change anything. Heck, people were talking about swing change Kevin Pillar made a couple months ago and he's back to being exactly the hitter he was expected to be all along.

 

Ryan Goins has a long way to go before his new swing should be viewed favourably.

 

Maaaan why you gotta be so pessimistic. Please tell me you're pessimistic on Donaldson too?

[nextyear]

Nice thread TwistedLogic. I especially appreciate the video comparisons. A picture is worth a thousand words, so three video clips must be worth several thousand .

 

In addition to the improved mechanics he has certainly become more cerebral at the plate. He seems to recognize pitches better and lays off the ones that break low over the plate.

[gruber92]

10 YEARS in the bigs i tell ya!

 

Watch it unfold, it was always there.

[Candy Maldonado]

Zobrist 3.0

[GD]

Maaaan why you gotta be so pessimistic. Please tell me you're pessimistic on Donaldson too?

 

You keep saying he's pessimistic, nitpicky, overanalytical. Nope, I'm pretty sure you're just wrong. Just in general. Nothing to do with this thread, really.

 

yay Goins. get up to 85 wRC+ and we'll talk.

[Atothe]

You keep saying he's pessimistic, nitpicky, overanalytical. Nope, I'm pretty sure you're just wrong. Just in general. Nothing to do with this thread, really.

 

yay Goins. get up to 85 wRC+ and we'll talk.

 

You're talking about a future 10 year big leaguer. Get your s*** together GD

[gruber92]

You keep saying he's pessimistic, nitpicky, overanalytical. Nope, I'm pretty sure you're just wrong. Just in general. Nothing to do with this thread, really.

 

yay Goins. get up to 85 wRC+ and we'll talk.

 

I think this was mentioned a little while ago, but was the median wRC+ for a middle infielder again? Just curious..

[o2cui2i]

You keep saying he's pessimistic, nitpicky, overanalytical. Nope, I'm pretty sure you're just wrong. Just in general. Nothing to do with this thread, really.

 

yay Goins. get up to 85 wRC+ and we'll talk.

 

you and your ridiculous expectations... lol 85 you say... HA!

 

He's a great backup middle infielder to have on the bench.

[gruber92]

You're talking about a future 10 year big leaguer. Get your s*** together GD

 

Yes, he will be employed in the MLB for the next 10 years.

[DuckDuckGose]

I think this was mentioned a little while ago, but was the median wRC+ for a middle infielder again? Just curious..

 

Fangraphs has league stats;

 

93 wRC+ for a 2B and 83 wRC+ for a SS.

[Atothe]

Yes, he will be employed in the MLB for the next 10 years.

 

Sometimes these "stats" guys don't understand smh. 10 years book it

[Orgfiller]

I think this was mentioned a little while ago, but was the median wRC+ for a middle infielder again? Just curious..

 

He's at a 74 wRC+ and that's with the "hot streak" or "swing change", he's barely above replacement. He's still projected to be a 60-63 wRC+ replacement level player. He's not Andrelton Simmons, he needs to be a better hitter if he's to be of value to the team.

[L54]

If I was granted one wish, I'd give Goins a 60 hit tool just to watch this forum explode.