A Business Case for claiming James Shields

[DuckDuckGose]

Buerhle's salary this year was $20M, and he'll provide about 2.5 WAR for that. $8M per WAR is the market rate, and a very sound investment when your core players (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion) are on such ridiculously profitable contracts.

 

Should've looked up the actual number, my bad. That being said $8M per WAR is pretty high. I know it was expected to go up to the $8M-$10M range but haven't investigated to see if it has increased past $5M/WAR (the old standard).

 

Really has nothing to do with that though. Payroll is around $140M, it's hard to justify 1/6th of payroll to a role player like Buehrle when they can get similar players for far cheaper.

[DuckDuckGose]

Says who? I've seen no evidence of that. It's one thing to take on $15M or $20M in payroll, it's quite another to add less than $3M.

 

No one from within the Jays' organization would say that publicly. It's been in the media since the last deadline. It came up again in the off-season and speculation was they only had $5-8M in payroll to add at the deadline. That's what they added. Appearances may not be reality but that is the perception.

[Dr. Dinger]

That being said $8M per WAR is pretty high. I know it was expected to go up to the $8M-$10M range but haven't investigated to see if it has increased past $5M/WAR (the old standard).

 

My understanding is that it's been at $7M/WAR for a couple years now, and will only increase going forward.

[Sammy225]

Wouldn't mind replacing Hutch with Shields and Estrada with Stroman if he returns.

 

In the long run. If the team is willing to blow that much money, would rather throw it at Price or Cueto.

 

The thing with Stroman is IF he returns he likely goes to the pen due to the fact that he has not pitched in 6 months and will not be stretched out. Unless Blue jays leave him in the minors to make 5 starts (at least). But to throw him back into the rotation without properly building up stamina is not likely the best thing to do with the future of the rotation

[flafson]

"Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016"

 

How is that a pro?

[Mikeleelop]

Objective: Bolster current starting rotation for playoff run with minimal impact to 2015 salary or farm system.

 

Requested Budget:

 

2015: Approximately $2.7M prorated salary (45/162*$10,000,000)

2016: $21M

2017-2019: $0-$58M; player option

 

Pros:

 

- Provides viable SP2 for remainder of 2015 and playoffs (projected 1.2 WAR ROS)

- Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016

- K and whiff rates at career high, predicting success for ROS

- Aligns with payroll flexibility for 2016 and beyond

- Reduces the need to spend on SP in 2016 free agency

- Reduces workload on bullpen ROS

- Repertoire predictive of gradual rather than precipitous decline (see: Buerhle)

 

Cons:

 

- Age is concerning (33)

- Slight velo drop this season

- HR rate has spiked despite playing at favourable park

- May opt out of contract after 2016 if market conditions are favourable

- May exercise options for 2017-2019 if market conditions are unfavourable

 

Assumptions:

 

- Significant payroll will be cleared heading into 2016 with the departures of Buerhle, Navarro, Romero, Estrada, and potentially Dickey

- Payroll cap for 2016 will remain constant or increase

- Blue Jays will be a viable contender in 2016

- Padres will place James Shields on revocable waivers

- James Shields will pass through waivers or reach Blue Jays waiver position

- Padres would like salary relief based on position on win curve

- Padres are willing to trade James Shields for minimal prospect return in exchange for salary relief

 

Risks:

 

- Possibility of steep decline would leave the Jays locked into a 3 year commitment on average-to-below-average pitcher from 2017-2019

 

Mitigation:

 

- Due to increased payroll flexbility in 2016 and beyond, $58M commitment to roughly league average pitcher would not be significantly detrimental to flexbility

 

Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

 

you have laid out the costs, but what type of revenue boost can Rogers expect from this pickup?

[TwistedLogic]

Cueto will cost 220 million, Price probably 240 million, Shields is owed 64 million prorated. Big difference.

 

You might get Kazmir for 64M.

 

Anyway, there is no way in hell I'd go after Cueto or Price. Personally, I'd go all-in on Greinke. He's not going to get a 7 year deal -- a lot of teams are going to put in 4 and 5-year offers, and someone is going to come along and grab him with a 6th year.

 

Whether he wants to pitch for the Jays is another story, but if he doesn't, there are a lot of very good secondary options on the market this year as well.

 

I wouldn't exactly mind a trade for Shields, but I'm not all that enthused about hamstringing the payroll right before the opening of a massive buyer's market for premium free agent arms.

[baubau]

Whether he wants to pitch for the Jays is another story

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/zack-greinke-could-play-worst-team-paid-most-163824712--mlb.html

 

If the Jays ante up over any team, I believe he would pitch for us.

[Dr. Dinger]

"Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016"

 

How is that a pro?

 

Um, mostly because we have nobody under contract next year who has ever thrown 200 IP in a season before? Other than Dickey, who is a team option. Innings are a good thing, and you don't get to 200 IP on a good team unless you are also good.

[KingKat]

you have laid out the costs, but what type of revenue boost can Rogers expect from this pickup?

 

Deeper playoff run = more revenue (not to mention projected gate receipts have already gone up since the trade deadline moves).

[RealAccountant]

Key Success Factors?

[Dr. Dinger]

you have laid out the costs, but what type of revenue boost can Rogers expect from this pickup?

 

That's impossible to accurately quantify with the information at our disposal. If he is the difference between us making the playoffs or not, it could be millions.

[Dr. Dinger]

Key Success Factors?

 

- Making playoffs

[wamco]

Replace buehrle and dickey and estrada 3 free agents for roughly the same money.

[Abomination]

There's no reason NOT to claim Shields, unless management has absolutely refused to give AA any more payroll (and with the excitement Price has generated, I have to think they'd give in). If we don't have the payroll space after this year, then we should be able to trade him somewhere.

 

It would be a fantastic 1-2 punch between Shields and Price in the playoffs.

 

On the down side, Shields hasn't pitched very well in Fenway or Yankee stadium in his career, and he hasn't been fantastic in RC either.

[keggy]

Buerhle's salary this year was $20M, and he'll provide about 2.5 WAR for that. $8M per WAR is the market rate, and a very sound investment when your core players (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion) are on such ridiculously profitable contracts.

 

Buerhle pretty consistently outperforms his peripherals. $/WAR probably underrates his value.

[nonamejays]

Getting Shields would be awesome, especially if the Jays did not have to use a lot of assets to acquire him.

 

His contract is a bit high, but that's not a big deal as he should generate enough wins above replacement to be worth it

[o2cui2i]

That's impossible to accurately quantify with the information at our disposal. If he is the difference between us making the playoffs or not, it could be millions.

 

the income from making the division series would pay for the extra money this year, unless they have already banked on that money with the salary they have tacked on already. 47k for say 3 home games plus tv income is not chump change.

[KingKat]

You put a claim on Shields. You offer them prospects in exchange for salary relief. If they balk at that you wait to see if they pull Shields back. Worst case scenario you get Shields for only money on a deal that's not that long.

[TRM]

Shields has cleared waivers.

[L54]

Shields has cleared waivers.

 

Do it AA.

[Atothe]

Do it AA.

 

http://media.giphy.com/media/wi8Ez1mwRcKGI/giphy.gif

[Ehjays]

This would be the move that takes us over the top......the move where u remember for years to come

 

 

DO IT

[Jimcanuck]

MB and Price won't be back

 

Need Shields now and next year

 

C'mon Rogers

[ColdPint]

Could you imagine a rotation to end the year of Price, MB, Dickey, Shields and Stroman? Jesus.

[Jimcanuck]

Could you imagine a rotation to end the year of Price, MB, Dickey, Shields and Stroman? Jesus.

 

Comparable to the Phillies with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Oswalt........ ummm, maybe shouldnt mention that

[taximan89]

Someone needs to mention the idea of Shields in a Jays uni to AA and see what reaction it elicits. Once an idea has taken hold in the brain it is impossible to eradicate.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Check out the newly opened " We The Fan" movement thread, donate today! Thank you, BigBounceyBlueBalls!

[nucker101]

Check out the newly opened " We The Fan" movement thread, donate today! Thank you, BigBounceyBlueBalls!

 

Why are you thanking yourself??!?

[Deadpool]

Why are you thanking yourself??!?

 

Because he is a crazy person, that's what crazy people do.