Can the Yankees catch the Jays? (Jays/Yankees watch)

[WryNGinger]

So you're looking at 2015's production so far from those 4 and extrapolating. You're like Einstein.

 

I am not continuing this past this post but you are missing exactly what I said..... Will the people that chirped last year step up and lead the team or will the new comers continue to lead the way. You're definitely NOT like Einstein...

[Dick_Pole]

Jays playoff odds on July 29, 2015 (34.7% chance at making the playoffs):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/2df509efc1543ae0e3b75029110c92eb.png

 

Jays playoff odds on July 30, 2015 (48.9% chance at making the playoffs):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/946008ba81be2f7e364c0db940b42db0.png

 

Jays playoff odds on July 31, 2015 (54.8% chance at making the playoffs):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/575efd8de449c08d22debef2851ea019.png

 

Jays playoff odds on August 4, 2015 (64.2% chance at making the playoffs):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/1419851d8814a3d22c34d9732e14fe7b.png

 

I like how the percentage goes from 60% to 66% today. I also like how it increases 2% just because the Angels lost. I think the Fangraphs formula is flawed. No way should one game move the needle this much with 50+ games left.

[Chappy]

I like how the percentage goes from 60% to 66% today. I also like how it increases 2% just because the Angels lost. I think the Fangraphs formula is flawed. No way should one game move the needle this much with 50+ games left.

 

The formula may very well be flawed, but the Angels losing today got the Jays to only one game back of the first WC spot. It's a fairly significant gain for the Jays considering how close they are to potentially overtaking the Angels.

[baloojayz]

I just realized how ludicrously easy the remainder of the Yankees schedule is.

 

Meanwhile, the Jays last seven games of the season will all be away games, with four at Camden and three at Tropicana. The Jays could defy all odds and manage to catch the Yankees over the next few weeks and still fall short of the division title if they have a poor stretch in that last week of games.

 

This is going to be a marathon.

 

I really feel the wildcard will be sufficient and should be their goal.

 

If they are going for the division mentally, they'll be really burned out if they do miraculously make it or worse burned out and destroyed if they don't.

[Chappy]

I really feel the wildcard will be sufficient and should be their goal.

 

If they are going for the division mentally, they'll be really burned out if they do miraculously make it or worse burned out and destroyed if they don't.

 

They are 5.5 games back with 54 more games to play, 13 of which are against the Yankees. No chance their goal isn't to take the division.

[Trouba95]

I'm fine with the WC1. I'm sure we can take that game with a packed house at home.

[baloojayz]

I'm fine with the WC1. I'm sure we can take that game with a packed house at home.

 

Yup me too, I rather save the Yankee bashing for the playoffs.

[LRC1962]

I am getting old it must be, but BJs know all about impossible leads vanishing. See the last 2 weeks of the 1987 race of the AL East. 7 games to go. 96 wins. Best pitching staff in the league. 3rd best offence. Example was the Sept 14th game where they hit 10 HRs. 3 1/2 game lead on the Detroit Tigers. Last 3 games of the year were at home games vs those same Tigers. They had already taken 3 of 4 from those same Tigers a week before in Detroit. End result.. BJs lost all 7 games and finished 2nd best team in the majors 2 games behind those Tigers. Point being, it does not matter how good you are and how far ahead you are, you must have the best record in order to finish ahead. 5 games with 54 games left in the season is nothing.

Second point is, if you do not believe it is possible it is impossible. If you believe it is possible anything can happen.

Edited August 5, 2015 by LRC1962

[Governator]

I really feel the wildcard will be sufficient and should be their goal.

 

If they are going for the division mentally, they'll be really burned out if they do miraculously make it or worse burned out and destroyed if they don't.

 

What? They'd be more pumped than ever if they took the division...

[glory]

The division should absolutely be the number one goal. Anything can happen in a one game Wild Card and if you can make the playoffs by avoiding that game, then do it. However, if the division is unattainable, then aim for the 1st Wild Card. At least that would be a home game.

[KingKat]

Sorry to be cliché but the goal is to win one game at a time. You play your best baseball, you let the rest sort itself out.

[Boxcar]

The division should absolutely be the number one goal. Anything can happen in a one game Wild Card and if you can make the playoffs by avoiding that game, then do it. However, if the division is unattainable, then aim for the 1st Wild Card. At least that would be a home game.

 

So basically, finish as high as possible. What a concept.

[intentional wok]

^ It's the macro version of "pitching to the score". Not sure where the armchair psychology of guys "getting burned out" if they chase the division is coming from. 5.5 games is hardly insurmountable.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

What the Mind can Concieve and Believe, it can Achieve ! : )

[Followthelight]

^ It's the macro version of "pitching to the score". Not sure where the armchair psychology of guys "getting burned out" if they chase the division is coming from. 5.5 games is hardly insurmountable.

 

It can evaporate in a week. A lot of loser mentality on this board. 22 years might do that to some though.

[Followthelight]

I really feel the wildcard will be sufficient and should be their goal.

 

If they are going for the division mentally, they'll be really burned out if they do miraculously make it or worse burned out and destroyed if they don't.

 

Lol what? Burned out? Wtf does that even mean.

[intentional wok]

Stop at 85 wins. Once you get there, stop. One you hit 82 or 83, slow down so you can stop at 85.

 

Should be good enough.

[glory]

So basically, finish as high as possible. What a concept.

 

I was responding to the person who said the WC was sufficient enough. Finish as high as possible is a concept that needed to be stated in this case.

[polar bear]

^ It's the macro version of "pitching to the score". Not sure where the armchair psychology of guys "getting burned out" if they chase the division is coming from. 5.5 games is hardly insurmountable.

 

Didn't we blow a similar lead to Detroit in the last couple of weeks of the season,a few years back?

[Followthelight]

Didn't we blow a similar lead to Detroit in the last couple of weeks of the season,a few years back?

 

Bigger I think it was a 7 game lead

[Mac Outlaw]

Bigger I think it was a 7 game lead

 

And after they caught us, Detroit had nothing left in the post season. The Twins destroyed them in 5, something like an 86 win team. Detroit won 98. We won 96 and got nothing.

 

Whoever asked what burned out means, it kinda means the same thing as blowing your load and having nothing left afterwards.

 

Before this is dismissed by some as BS, I believe Alan Trammell basically said the same thing in some quote I read twenty years ago. They had nothing left against the Twins.

[Boxcar]

And after they caught us, Detroit had nothing left in the post season. The Twins destroyed them in 5, something like an 86 win team. Detroit won 98. We won 96 and got nothing.

 

Whoever asked what burned out means, it kinda means the same thing as blowing your load and having nothing left afterwards.

 

Before this is dismissed by some as BS, I believe Alan Trammell basically said the same thing in some quote I read twenty years ago. They had nothing left against the Twins.

 

I have accounted for your warning, but still judge this as BS. Next!

[baloojayz]

^ It's the macro version of "pitching to the score". Not sure where the armchair psychology of guys "getting burned out" if they chase the division is coming from. 5.5 games is hardly insurmountable.

 

Good memory, but that's not what I said this time. All I said is they should go out there focused on winning the wild card, if they win more great.

 

"Stop at 85 wins. Once you get there, stop. One you hit 82 or 83, slow down so you can stop at 85.

 

Should be good enough."

How do you jump to such an idiotic conclusion? It was funny, but still ridiculous given what I said.

[Followthelight]

And after they caught us, Detroit had nothing left in the post season. The Twins destroyed them in 5, something like an 86 win team. Detroit won 98. We won 96 and got nothing.

 

Whoever asked what burned out means, it kinda means the same thing as blowing your load and having nothing left afterwards.

 

Before this is dismissed by some as BS, I believe Alan Trammell basically said the same thing in some quote I read twenty years ago. They had nothing left against the Twins.

 

Sounds like an excuse. We have 50 plus games left. Detroit diud it in the last two weeks of the season

[Captain Adama]

And after they caught us, Detroit had nothing left in the post season. The Twins destroyed them in 5, something like an 86 win team. Detroit won 98. We won 96 and got nothing.

 

Whoever asked what burned out means, it kinda means the same thing as blowing your load and having nothing left afterwards.

 

Before this is dismissed by some as BS, I believe Alan Trammell basically said the same thing in some quote I read twenty years ago. They had nothing left against the Twins.

 

Guess the 2004 red Sox had nothing left in the WS either huh?

[baloojayz]

Guess the 2004 red Sox had nothing left in the WS either huh?

 

On September 16, 2004, Schilling won his 20th game of 2004 for the Red Sox, becoming the fifth Boston pitcher to win 20 or more games in his first season with the team, and the first since Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley in 1978. Schilling ended his regular season with a 21–6 record.

 

 

On October 19, 2004, Schilling won Game 6 of the 2004 American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees. Notably, he won this game playing on an injured ankle—the same injuries that contributed to his disastrous outing in Game 1 of the ALCS. These injuries were so acute that by the end of his performance that day his white sock was soaked with blood, which is now referred to as "the bloody sock". Schilling sold the "bloody sock" at auction for $92,613. The win forced a Game 7, making the Red Sox the first team in MLB history to come back from a three-games-to-none deficit. The Red Sox would go on to win Game 7 and the ALCS and make their first World Series appearance since 1986

[BigCecil]

Sorry to be cliché but the goal is to win one game at a time. You play your best baseball, you let the rest sort itself out.

`.

 

Truth. Rest of the spec can be kinda fun buts its meaningless. Win today.

[King]

Good thread

[Mac Outlaw]

I have accounted for your warning, but still judge this as BS. Next!

 

Well, Boxcar, these two links are just for you. Enjoy.

 

http://articles.latimes.com/1987-10-18/sports/sp-15301_1_detroit-tigers

http://www.mlive.com/whitecaps/index.ssf/2012/06/bill_madlock_recalls_the_grind.html

 

Since you might not even have been alive then, I'll cut you some slack. Trammell and Madlock, on the other hand, were there.

 

Something else I found too about the collapse in 87. Great f'n quotes, "There'd be hysteria in Toronto" from Sparky, and "Should I buy him a candy bar" from Madlock. Slide was dirty though, everyone knows it.

 

https://www.detroitathletic.com/blog/2014/06/13/final-weeks-87-season-saw-tigers-blue-jays-battle-exciting-finish/

[G-Snarls]

Let's roll this in to the general discussion thread

 

Will do when I'm on my PC in a bit