Can the Yankees catch the Jays? (Jays/Yankees watch)

[thatoneguy]

I guess math is not your strong side. they need at least 5 games a week giving them 45 more wins. that will get them to the playoffs and win the division.

 

As someone taking more than a half dozen calculus classes in university, come on man.

[Followthelight]

but 100% has to be spread over at least 5 teams with a reasonable chance

 

Ah yes never thought of that.

[CJ-Freeway]

Need to play .600 ball and win 7-8 games vs them. Unlikely that it will happen but miracles are possible.

[Boxcar]

I guess math is not your strong side. they need at least 5 games a week giving them 45 more wins. that will get them to the playoffs and win the division.

 

Holy f***, please delete your account and try again

[RealAccountant]

5.5 GB with 55 Games to go

 

Impossible. Never happened in the history of baseball

 

/sarcasm

 

Barring injuries Jays will win this division by 3-4 games

[Trouba95]

How many wins for the division, WC1, WC2? I say 92-93 division, 88-89 WC1, 85-88 WC2. Anybody?

[thatoneguy]

Need to play .600 ball and win 7-8 games vs them. Unlikely that it will happen but miracles are possible.

 

It wouldn't be a miracle, it would be the Blue Jays playing to their potential for once.

[RealAccountant]

How many wins for the division, WC1, WC2? I say 92-93 division, 88-89 WC1, 85-88 WC2. Anybody?

 

90 wins equal division

 

I firmly believe we will end up 94-95 wins. This is not homerism, just look at the complete team that stands now.

[CJ-Freeway]

How many wins for the division, WC1, WC2? I say 92-93 division, 88-89 WC1, 85-88 WC2. Anybody?

 

I agree with your predictions. This could be spot on.

[dineke]

90 wins equal division

 

I firmly believe we will end up 94-95 wins. This is not homerism, just look at the complete team that stands now.

 

It's still not a .700 ball club.

[CJ-Freeway]

It wouldn't be a miracle, it would be the Blue Jays playing to their potential for once.

 

Jays are a good team now, but so are the Yankees. It's going to be a tough road ahead if we wanna catch them. That's all I'm saying.

[Stangstag]

Jays are a good team now, but so are the Yankees. It's going to be a tough road ahead if we wanna catch them. That's all I'm saying.

 

Definitely. These next 2 months will be some of the best baseball the jays have played in years.

[TwistedLogic]

Only 40%for the wildcard?That seems lowconsidering where we are and how good the roster is.

 

Well the 43.4% shot at the wild card seems on the low side because isn't including the 17.1% chance the Jays have at winning the division. Their total odds of making the playoffs are at 60.6%, which is probably the number you were looking for.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/29c245cb32a29536cc585ea14693e3ac.png

[jays76]

Jays are a good team now, but so are the Yankees. It's going to be a tough road ahead if we wanna catch them. That's all I'm saying.

 

Yankees actually have an easier remaining schedule imo and are hot right now so we have to be completely lights out with a more difficult schedule.. I think this division will be won or lost within our 13 games against them. If we take 8-9 we'll have a fighting chance..

[Stangstag]

Well the 43.4% shot at the wild card seems on the low side because isn't including the 17.1% chance the Jays have at winning the division. Their total odds of making the playoffs are at 60.6%, which is probably the number you were looking for.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/29c245cb32a29536cc585ea14693e3ac.png

 

I... don't think that's how it works.

[WryNGinger]

A few of the Jays moped last year when there were no real significant moves at or around the deadline. This year is 100% put-up or shut your cock-holster time for them. It will be very interesting to see if they actually perform and lead the team or will it be the newcomers. My bets are on Donaldson and Tulo making a bigger impact over the last month than EE or Jose. I am not rooting against the holdovers, just watching with interest.

[TwistedLogic]

I... don't think that's how it works.

 

That is literally the exact way it works. The table is literally right in front of you.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/caf9c86da6b871eee184b2b600380a75.png

[L54]

Lol

[Stangstag]

That is literally the exact way it works. The table is literally right in front of you.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/caf9c86da6b871eee184b2b600380a75.png

 

But 17.1 + 43.4 = 60.5, not 60.6

 

Jk, i'm dumn.

 

I don't really put much stock into those playoff percentages though. Didn't the jays have like an 80% chance to make the playoffs last year after the 36-22 start? That didn't work out so well...

[Stangstag]

Lol

 

Probably my biggest fail on this board

[RealAccountant]

Yankees actually have an easier remaining schedule imo and are hot right now so we have to be completely lights out with a more difficult schedule.. I think this division will be won or lost within our 13 games against them. If we take 8-9 we'll have a fighting chance..

 

Don't think that's true.

 

After the current series Jays have 13 against Yankees 6 against Orioles and 3 against Angels. The other 30 games are all against teams out of contention already

 

Yankees have 13 against us 3 against Orioles 3 against Astros 3 against Mets 3 against 27 against out of contention

 

Both sceds are pretty simple. Orioles have the most games against contending teams with 27

[baloojayz]

Let's just sweep the 13 games? problem solved, nice and eezee

[BigCecil]

Don't really care. If it happens great. Its not improbable if things breaks right for us.

 

If we can stay healthy an IF of Smoak-Travis-Tulo-JD-Martin with Revere-Pillar-Jose B in OF and Edwin (who is due) looks very strong to me.

 

More focussed on WC. Obviously would love to lock it up and ensure that Price starts it. Go with your high priced top gun.

[KingKat]

Just win baby!

[o2cui2i]

Just win baby!

 

win every series and sweep a few and it will work itself out.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

With this 5.5 game lead at the start of Aug, the odds of the jays catching the Yankees will be tough but not even close to impossible.

The bonus is with the Yankee lead is that they will probably still be in first place at the close of the waiver claim deadline and the Jays potentially could claim any

pitcher the Yankee's may need.

As a very remote aside to this possibility is that the Jays could also get a possible starter to replace Price next year.

 

^ Yes, far fetched but....

[SaskJaysFan_2]

A few of the Jays moped last year when there were no real significant moves at or around the deadline. This year is 100% put-up or shut your cock-holster time for them. It will be very interesting to see if they actually perform and lead the team or will it be the newcomers. My bets are on Donaldson and Tulo making a bigger impact over the last month than EE or Jose. I am not rooting against the holdovers, just watching with interest.

 

So you're looking at 2015's production so far from those 4 and extrapolating. You're like Einstein.

[TwistedLogic]

But 17.1 + 43.4 = 60.5, not 60.6

 

Jk, i'm dumn.

 

I don't really put much stock into those playoff percentages though. Didn't the jays have like an 80% chance to make the playoffs last year after the 36-22 start? That didn't work out so well...

 

Well those are odds for you. An 80% chance to make that playoffs that early in the season isn't all that much. There's still a 20% chance you fail, and that's a pretty high chance.

 

Those odds also probably didn't take into account the Lawrie, Lind and Edwin injuries that would come shortly after, or things like the deadline acquisitions of Prado, McCarthy and Headley by the Yankees.

 

The only purpose of these projections is to give us a slightly better idea of what to expect over what the current standings already tell us.

 

Jeff Sullivan wrote a nice little piece about it a few weeks ago where he talks about the importance of the current standings vs projections.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/how-much-should-you-believe-in-the-standings-071015

[jays76]

win every series and sweep a few and it will work itself out.

 

If we can take 3 of 4 from Minny and 2 of 3 from the Yankees by the end of this wk that would be pretty sweet. We can't afford to lose either of these series.

[o2cui2i]

If we can take 3 of 4 from Minny and 2 of 3 from the Yankees by the end of this wk that would be pretty sweet. We can't afford to lose either of these series.

 

winning series and sweeping a few is what needs to happen. beating up on the Twinkies is a must as is winning all the series against NY.