Early Thoughts on the Blue Jays' 2027 Steamer Projections

Steamer projections, the first major set of projections we have for the 2027 MLB season, are up on FanGraphs. Here’s what they told me about the Toronto Blue Jays.

Don’t Lose Faith in Vladdy

I don’t need to pad my word count by telling you how disappointing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was in 2026. After starting strong in March and April, he crumpled into a ball from May through September. Over the last five months of the season, only five qualified AL hitters had a lower wRC+.

Thankfully, Vladdy has a strong track record, remarkable raw skills, and the benefit of youth on his side. That’s why Steamer projects him to be a top-five hitter in the AL next season. Man, that felt good to type. His projected 137 wRC+ puts him behind only Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Junior Caminero, and Nick Kurtz. 

Steamer has a lot less confidence in Guerrero’s power than it did at this time last year, and rightly so. His projected home run total has dropped from 32 to 23 following his nine-homer campaign in 2026. The good news is that the system hasn’t lost faith in his contact and on-base skills. 

To be clear, I remain concerned about Vlad. These projections haven’t assuaged all my fears. Still, it’s nice to be reminded how unusual his blend of skills truly is. Only one player in Major League Baseball is projected to outproduce Guerrero in three triple-slash categories, and he’s likely going to be named the AL MVP tonight.  

Progress for Kaz?

I’m taking these projections with a grain of salt. Steamer had to blend years of NPB data with numbers from one season in MLB to spit out Kazuma Okamoto’s projections for 2027. To further complicate the matter, Okamoto is still developing against big league pitching at an age when most hitters have plateaued. All else being equal, projection systems tend to expect young players to get better and older players to get worse. Okamoto complicates that. 

For those reasons, I’m not putting too much stock in his projected 109 wRC+, which would represent a slight step back from his 113 wRC+ in 2026. Instead, I’m more interested in his projected 24.2% strikeout rate. 

Okamoto never struck out a ton in Japan. Indeed, by the end of his NPB tenure, his strikeout rate was so low that Steamer projected him to have a 17.0% strikeout rate in his rookie season with the Blue Jays. Of course, as we all know now, he went on to set the franchise record for strikeouts in a season while punching out in 28.8% of his trips to the plate.     

A 24.2% K rate in 2027 would be a very promising improvement. So, I’m encouraged that Steamer thinks it’s possible. Projection systems don’t have a large sample to work with when it comes to NPB players entering their second MLB seasons, but what data there is suggests that Okamoto will look a little more like his NPB self in year two with the Jays. I have my fingers crossed.

The Offense Still Needs Reinforcements (Duh)

The Steamer projections look good for Vlad. I’m choosing to see the silver lining in the projections for Kaz. Even so, the overall picture Steamer paints of Toronto’s offense isn’t pretty. 

After Guerrero, Steamer has Alejandro Kirk as the team’s next best hitter with a projected 117 wRC+. Then it’s Okamoto at 109. Two more players the Jays are counting on to make an impact, Anthony Santander and Addison Barger, are projected for matching 106 wRC+ figures. That’s not a postseason-calibre middle of the order. 

Obviously, this isn’t new information. The Blue Jays finished last in MLB in runs in 2026. I didn’t need a fancy projection system to tell me the offense stunk. However, Steamer highlights just how few bats the Blue Jays can rely on. 

I clicked the “Projections” tab on FanGraphs expecting to see Okamoto in the 115-120 wRC+ range. I thought Barger and Santander might be around 110. What I saw was more concerning. The Blue Jays have plenty of bats who could make an impact, but not nearly enough they can count on to do so.

Hey, Remember Cody Ponce?

I wouldn’t blame anyone for whom Cody Ponce is something of an afterthought right now. The 2025 KBO MVP only threw a couple of innings for Toronto before a torn ACL ended his season.

Yet, Steamer is very optimistic about what he can do in the majors. Personally, I would be thrilled if he could turn in a full season out of the rotation with a sub-4.00 ERA, and that’s what the system foresees. 

As was the case with Okamoto, we have to take these projections with a grain of salt. It isn’t easy to use KBO data to predict MLB performance. That said, the information we have is promising. I was also pleased to see that neither Ponce’s injury, nor the fact that he’ll turn 33 next April, put a damper on his projections. His Steamer projections for 2027 are very similar to what the system envisioned for him in 2026.

Ignore Everything You Read About Tyler Rogers

Steamer projects Tyler Rogers to have a 4.14 ERA and 4.16 FIP. That would be a big step back from his 1.77 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 2026. Thankfully, Steamer has never known what to do with a pitcher as unusual as Rogers. Take a look at his Steamer projections (and his actual performance) over the last five seasons:

Rogers is a submariner who baffles opposing hitters with the slowest fastball in the majors. He thrives without strikeouts in a way no one else can. As a result, his ERA is regularly much lower than his FIP, and both numbers are always better than Steamer projects them to be. 

In other words, here's my takeaway from Rogers' Steamer projections: ignore them. 

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