Rotation next year

[glory]

Verlander was a nice reminder for me as to how dangerous pitching contracts are. Guy was an absolute stud with no history of arm troubles. Then he died.

 

You don't trade six years of Daniel Norris for two months of Price. The Jays would be foolish not to try to sign him. Whether Price would want to come back is a different story, but an attempt has to be made, even if it's seven years and $30m a year. Don't make the trade if you're not prepared to go all-in for 2016-18 as well.

[Chappy]

You don't trade six years of Daniel Norris for two months of Price. The Jays would be foolish not to try to sign him. Whether Price would want to come back is a different story, but an attempt has to be made, even if it's seven years and $30m a year. Don't make the trade if you're not prepared to go all-in for 2016-18 as well.

 

You do make that trade if it's the difference between getting into the playoffs and not. This group with Price in the playoffs has a legitimate chance to go deep. We have significant money coming off the books this winter, and a playoff run (or at the very least serious contention) will drive up ratings and ticket sales. Ownership will take note and spend this winter imo. They already have spent big money and there is no reason to think they won't continue, especially with a growing fan base and interest across the country. The Tulo deal was a strong indication that they are not pulling back the funds anytime soon imo, considering the extra years on his contract. Going all-in does not mean they need to dish out high risk contracts they will almost certainly cripple the organization long-term.

 

Now in terms of Price, sure they make a play, but at the end of the day they would be much better off going an alternate route. The risk/reward simply isn't worth it for a long term contract.

[Olerud363]

Not many prospects pan out period. Even fewer reach their ceiling. Almost none make it to be #1/2 starting pitchers. Even if you correctly predicted and retained all of these prospects there is no way they would all get the development time, encouragement, and opportunities to build their confidence and hone their skills to all be #1 material (look at the EDM Oilers...)

Stroman only got his break after Morrow went down last year. Sanchez is locked up in the pen. Hutch is struggling. Norris would not get as good a look as he is going to get in Detroit for quite a while considering he was struggling at AAA. Alvarez got his opportunity being traded to the Marlins out of the playoff picture giving Alvarez plenty of low pressure time to develop and succeed. You get the idea...

 

This is not true at all. Every good prospect gets a chance no matter what. Teams use 10 starters a year. Top pitching prospects are going to find their way to a few starts no matter what.

 

If the Jays give up on these guys after a rough outing it is not a matter of opportunity... it is a matter of organization decision making.

 

Boyd and Norris found starts... they were quickly dispatched so Felix Dubront could get some starts. If the organization philosaphy was..

 

We will develop many good young pitchers... we will not give up on them after a bad start or two... we will develop them and give them 30 starts... we will not trade a young player for old.

 

Then the Jays would have a sweet rotation this year and next... maybe no Donaldson and TT, but Hech and Lawrie and Syndergard and Stroman... it would be more of a Mets style defense first team.

[BigCecil]

Anyone suggesting we will sign Price is out of their mind. Jays ownership is not going to give him the 5+ years and Scherzer ish like money. I'm ok with that. We will have to target a front end rotation SP and look at moving Osuna into that roll and hope that Stro is what we think he is. RA has been on an excellent roll and as bad as he was to start the year, AA will be forced to consider the option. Mark B won't be back and I will miss him. For now, focus is on making a run 2015 where it should be. This is now a vastly improved team over 2014.

 

Let me know the next time you speak to the ownership...I have some suggestions for them.

 

Haha. I'm just basing that on our FA history which includes a 5 year max. I don't think the risk/reward justifies the deal it would take to sign Price. He is a rental and they did it to make a push this year. The cost was high but will be accepted moreso if it works.

[RealAccountant]

I'm surprised how well people are taking the Norris 7 innings 1 run performance

[Olerud363]

I'm surprised how well people are taking the Norris 7 innings 1 run performance

 

It's only one game...

 

Norris underperformed at Buffalo this year big time, peripherals were way down.

 

If the real Norris is the 2014 Norris, and he pitches lights out for Detroit the rest of the way there will be hell to pay.

 

If this happens

 

Norris 6-2 2.73 Detroit surprise wild card team...

 

Syndergard - ROY- Next Halladay

 

Price 4-4 3.38 Toronto 82 wins, not even really in the WC race in September

 

Toronto fans will have mental scars that will be unrecoverable

[Hipfan]

I don't think the contract for Price would cripple us. I'd actually front load it a bit to offset the upcoming raises for Martin/Donaldson/Stroman, etc. If you figure he lands a Scherzer contract (7/210), I'd probably go 35/35/35/30/30/25/20, that way you get some protection for aging/decline, plus give you room in the budget for raises for the young guys you hope will turn into stars.

[gruber92]

All these changes but Goins remains awesome..

 

WTF happened here in the past week?

 

WOW, I LIKE.

 

EDIT.. Wrong thread. Lol

[Dr Negative]

I don't think the contract for Price would cripple us. I'd actually front load it a bit to offset the upcoming raises for Martin/Donaldson/Stroman, etc. If you figure he lands a Scherzer contract (7/210), I'd probably go 35/35/35/30/30/25/20, that way you get some protection for aging/decline, plus give you room in the budget for raises for the young guys you hope will turn into stars.

 

Players don't sign contracts which are structured like that.

[Captain Adama]

We all know Norris' ceiling. That's why he was highly regarded. I hope he does well. Shows that our scouts made the right recommendation... We made the right decision to pay him the $2m signing bonus... That our developmental system is good at developing young arms. If the players we trade bust, how many teams will be lining up for our prospects in the future when we want to make significant deals?

 

The deal is done. Wish the kid all the best and hope our team does well. Same with Syndergaard. It's over... Get over it.

 

Bad way to look at it, because it also means that the FO doesn't understand value and risk vs. reward.

[Caper]

Bad way to look at it, because it also means that the FO doesn't understand value and risk vs. reward.

 

No. That's how you look at it. We over payed for Price... That's the only way you get David Price. Let Norris go on and have a great career... it's fine.

[frizzer1]

The deal is done. Wish the kid all the best and hope our team does well. Same with Syndergaard. It's over... Get over it.

 

well, that's something I struggle with.....I'm still upset that the leafs traded the right to draft Niedemeyer for kurvers..

 

And the thought that had no trades been made, the starting rotation in a year or two could have been....

Syndergaard

Sanchez

Stroman

Hoffman

Norris

Not to mention hutch, castro and osuna...

Young and controllable for years .....

Now, I'm excited about this year and it's fun,but I know that I will suffer big time down the line if those guys develop as expected.

[Stangstag]

well, that's something I struggle with.....I'm still upset that the leafs traded the right to draft Niedemeyer for kurvers..

 

And the thought that had no trades been made, the starting rotation in a year or two could have been....

Syndergaard

Sanchez

Stroman

Hoffman

Norris

Not to mention hutch, castro and osuna...

Young and controllable for years .....

Now, I'm excited about this year and it's fun,but I know that I will suffer big time down the line if those guys develop as expected.

 

With 0 offense. That rotation is good, but we wouldn't have Tulo, Donaldson, Revere, etc.

[Jimcanuck]

With 0 offense. That rotation is good, but we wouldn't have Tulo, Donaldson, Revere, etc.

 

Everyone of those pitchers cost controlled though. There'd be loads of budget room for position players. Colorado wanted to unload Tulo's contract, it would have taken very little to do so.

[xposbrad]

You don't trade six years of Daniel Norris for two months of Price. The Jays would be foolish not to try to sign him. Whether Price would want to come back is a different story, but an attempt has to be made, even if it's seven years and $30m a year. Don't make the trade if you're not prepared to go all-in for 2016-18 as well.

 

You would think that, however, many things done over the years don't make sense. Increase payroll one year and instead of signing free agents, take on big contracts and trade away prospects to other teams instead of planning it out. Not address needs during the offseason, then trading away prospects midseason for the same positions that every single person and their mother knew needed to be addressed at the start of the season. So don't think that you have the strategy of this team figured out, a lot of things don't make sense. Right now, this team has a chance because Boston is rebuilding and NYY are waiting for contracts to expire. 30m/yr for 1 pitcher is a lot, especially if you only have a 130m payroll.

[BTS]

There are so many interesting free agent starters available. Assuming Stroman and Hutch are both in the rotation, Kennedy, Chen, Iwakuma, Lackey, Kazmir, and Anderson probably all sign for 1-3 years. And with big fish like Cueto, Price, Greinke, and Zimmermann all on the market, it should be a great time to add a couple of lesser starters.

 

Something like:

 

Stroman

Iwakuma

Chen

Hutchison

random guys/Osuna/Sanchez

 

is a great rotation.

[Stangstag]

There are so many interesting free agent starters available. Assuming Stroman and Hutch are both in the rotation, Kennedy, Chen, Iwakuma, Lackey, Kazmir, and Anderson probably all sign for 1-3 years. And with big fish like Cueto, Price, Greinke, and Zimmermann all on the market, it should be a great time to add a couple of lesser starters.

 

Something like:

 

Stroman

Iwakuma

Chen

Hutchison

random guys/Osuna/Sanchez

 

is a great rotation.

 

Yeah, the FA class for starting pitchers this offseason is excellent. Alot of good mid-rotation starters and Aces available. Should drive the overall contract prices down. With Dickey, Buehrle, Romero, Navarro off the books, we should be able to sign a solid starter or 2. The lineup doesn't need any additions whatsoever, so all of the money can go towards pitching.

[BTS]

Yeah, the FA class for starting pitchers this offseason is excellent. Alot of good mid-rotation starters and Aces available. Should drive the overall contract prices down. With Dickey, Buehrle, Romero, Navarro off the books, we should be able to sign a solid starter or 2. The lineup doesn't need any additions whatsoever, so all of the money can go towards pitching.

 

A reliable inning eater and a guy with more upside would be ideal, and both should come on short-term deals. Iwakuma would be amazing if paired with a Chen/Kennedy/Lackey. Kuma has legit ace upside, and should come on a short term deal.

[o2cui2i]

A reliable inning eater and a guy with more upside would be ideal, and both should come on short-term deals. Iwakuma would be amazing if paired with a Chen/Kennedy/Lackey. Kuma has legit ace upside, and should come on a short term deal.

 

without Buehrle and Dickey that's 450 innings that need to come from somewhere else.

[BTS]

without Buehrle and Dickey that's 450 innings that need to come from somewhere else.

 

Dickey might actually be pitching his way to having that option picked up. Could very well be another 215 innings of sub-4 ERA ball.

[Stangstag]

without Buehrle and Dickey that's 450 innings that need to come from somewhere else.

 

I don't want either of them back next year. We can sign a similar, younger starter with more upside for the same money.

[reedjohnsonfan]

A reliable inning eater and a guy with more upside would be ideal, and both should come on short-term deals. Iwakuma would be amazing if paired with a Chen/Kennedy/Lackey. Kuma has legit ace upside, and should come on a short term deal.

 

Depends if he's cheap. I don't think he has ace upside at the age of 35 when he's never really been an ace, but to each their own.

[o2cui2i]

Dickey might actually be pitching his way to having that option picked up. Could very well be another 215 innings of sub-4 ERA ball.

 

if he can finish the season the way he has pitched the last games then the option is a good deal

[Stangstag]

Dickey might actually be pitching his way to having that option picked up. Could very well be another 215 innings of sub-4 ERA ball.

 

I still wouldn't pick up the option. Dickey has been replacement level for the whole 1st half. I don't trust him to turn it around and be worth 1-2 WAR next year, epecially since he'll be like 55 years old. There are better ways to spend that 14 million

[o2cui2i]

I still wouldn't pick up the option. Dickey has been replacement level for the whole 1st half. I don't trust him to turn it around and be worth 1-2 WAR next year, epecially since he'll be like 55 years old. There are better ways to spend that 14 million

 

14 million doesn't buy as much as you might think.

[BTS]

Depends if he's cheap. I don't think he has ace upside at the age of 35 when he's never really been an ace, but to each their own.

 

I would argue he's been an ace when healthy since he moved to the rotation. Career 3.13 ERA and 3.20 xFIP as a SP, and he's right back at it this year. I'd definitely gamble on that kind of production on a 1-2 year deal.

[Stangstag]

14 million doesn't buy as much as you might think.

 

No, but 20 million does. And 14 million that we save from dropping Dickey can go towards that 20 million to sign a better starter.

[Laika]

I think Dickey's option is $12M.

 

The Blue Jays will need to either pick up Dickey's option or convince Buehrle to return. Hopefully both. They've traded all of the decent upper minors SP depth, so the innings will be crucial. The closest legitimate SP prospects are in Lansing and below so they won't even be serious options in 2017.

 

Maybe if they lose in the Wild Card game or something like that, Buehrle will be thirsty enough to come back for one more year.

 

Dickey is on pace for another comfortably above average year, by RA9-WAR. I don't see any reason not to pick up his option.

 

Stroman

Buehrle (please)

Dickey

Hutch

Trade Saunders for someone? Maybe deal Edwin?

Try to attract Colon on a one year deal? Buy way low on Bud Norris?

Mid-sized deal for Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Doug Fister, or Ian Kennedy?

 

I doubt they throw money at a SP like Kuma, Zimmerman, Shark, etc. But they didn't trade all of their SP prospects without some plan for 2016.

[BTS]

I think Dickey's option is $12M.

 

The Blue Jays will need to either pick up Dickey's option or convince Buehrle to return. Hopefully both. They've traded all of the decent upper minors SP depth, so the innings will be crucial. The closest legitimate SP prospects are in Lansing and below so they won't even be serious options in 2017.

 

Maybe if they lose in the Wild Card game or something like that, Buehrle will be thirsty enough to come back for one more year.

 

Dickey is on pace for another comfortably above average year, by RA9-WAR. I don't see any reason not to pick up his option.

 

Stroman

Buehrle (please)

Dickey

Hutch

Trade Saunders for someone? Maybe deal Edwin?

Try to attract Colon on a one year deal? Buy way low on Bud Norris?

Mid-sized deal for Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Doug Fister, or Ian Kennedy?

 

I doubt they throw money at a SP like Kuma, Zimmerman, Shark, etc. But they didn't trade all of their SP prospects without some plan for 2016.

 

Yeah. Things looked pretty dicey in the first few months, but Dickey will once again come in at better than 2 wins not counting the Dickey effect. $12M on a 1-year commitment is looking more and more like a no-brainer.

[Stangstag]

Yeah. Things looked pretty dicey in the first few months, but Dickey will once again come in at better than 2 wins not counting the Dickey effect. $12M on a 1-year commitment is looking more and more like a no-brainer.

 

Dickey will be 41 next year. Wouldn't you rather put that 12 million towards a guy like Mike Leake or Gallardo? Kazmir or Iwakuma? I'm not drinking the Dickey kool-aid. Don't want him back next year. I think he's a ticking time-bomb.