Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[jaysblue]

Despite not finishing significantly better than him in a weaker division in LOD?

 

Aren't you in that division as well?

[King]

Well we already knew this, but what a f***ing dickhead this guy is.

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--RaxYUfFNbc/UOgbDGeF1HI/AAAAAAAAEyg/0P6HzwpI12k/s1600/internet-fight.gif

[Scion]

I know this is a thread about Estrada, but would anyone have interest in J.A. Happ? It seems like he made a legitimate tweak to his game by throwing more cutters and less breaking balls which coincided with more strikes and a better K/BB ratio. Combine that with his poor first half, and relatively mediocre career up to the Pirates trade, and it seems reasonable to assume that he could be had on a shorter term deal to prove his worth.

[GD]

Would you mind elaborating on point number two? I'm not terribly familiar with DIPS, and why I should be using it as a baseline for what to expect from Estrada moving forward. Thank you in advance.

 

DIPS is essentially the notion that pitchers are in control of their strikeout rate, walk rate, fly ball rate, and not much else. So things like clusters of hits and a disproportionate amount of fly balls leaving the yard can be attributed to variance (which shows up in stats like BABIP, HR/FB). Not involved in DIPS but whiff% is also a good indicator of pitcher skill as it isn't affected by framing, umps, etc.

 

In application, DIPS are stats like xFIP, FIP, SIERA, etc. Defense Independent Pitching Statistics. We've had some very good ones created, notably by an old poster named JFaS (xxFIP, TIPS), and by a current poster, Northof49 (FRIAS). They are usually better predictors of next-year ERA than current year ERA is. There are rare cases (rare enough that Mariano Rivera is one of them) that over a large sample, a pitcher can out-perform his DIPS in his ERA. Buehrle is another guy like that.

 

However, guys with less-than-massive samples who are assumed to be "DIPS-beaters" usually aren't. Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Romero, Matt Cain are some good examples of guys that aren't. That's the big argument against Sanchize. Estrada could be, very slightly, but 4/10th's of a run is a MASSIVE difference, and even then, Estrada doesn't look very good. As well, over the course of his career, he hasn't out-performed his DIPS that much, despite being a good candidate for it.

 

In all, it's not really wise to bet big amounts of money on guys being "DIPS-beaters." Would love to answer any further questions.

[BTS]

This article suggests that Estrada's ability to generate soft contact and induce a BABIP in the lower third of the league is a legitimate skill, and thus FIP and xFIP are not accurate indicators of his future ERA. I also recall reading a post from nox in the past about SP with strong changeups outperforming their peripherals, so perhaps there is something to be said about that as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

 

The only real takeaway from that article is that he gets a lot of IFFBs (typical of extreme FB pitchers) and manages LD well.

 

The rest of the article is stupid. Using a pitcher's OBP and SLG to create an ERA estimator, and then using its proximity to his ERA to argue that his ERA is closer than his FIP to his true talent is lunacy. The ERA was low because the OBP and SLG were low. To question whether the ERA is a skill is to question whether the OBP/SLG was a skill.

 

All that to say, he might induce weak contact. He probably does. But that's not going to turn a 4.9 xFIP into a sub-4 ERA over the long term. No pitcher in history has been that good at managing contact. If you're projecting Estrada at a sub-4 ERA, you're banking on a K/BB skill improvement, a GB skill improvement, or a combination of the two.

[GD]

Aren't you in that division as well?

 

Exactly my point. You couldn't win a division with me in it, yet you're mouthing off to a fellow DDLer, calling him an idiot? Pretty gauche IMHO IIRC TBH FYI.

[BTS]

1. Tony Blengino is ehh.

2. It's absolutely a skill, but if you project his ERA at a rate that's, say, .4 runs better than his DIPS (which is a MASSIVE spread that no one can really be expected to attain) he's still probably a 4.1 ERA guy or whatever. He's just not really all that deserving of a big contract.

 

I don't believe I had read anything by Blengino before that Estrada article just now, but it led me to conclude that he's a moron.

[Scion]

DIPS is essentially the notion that pitchers are in control of their strikeout rate, walk rate, fly ball rate, and not much else. So things like clusters of hits and a disproportionate amount of fly balls leaving the yard can be attributed to variance (which shows up in stats like BABIP, HR/FB). Not involved in DIPS but whiff% is also a good indicator of pitcher skill as it isn't affected by framing, umps, etc.

 

In application, DIPS are stats like xFIP, FIP, SIERA, etc. Defense Independent Pitching Statistics. We've had some very good ones created, notably by an old poster named JFaS (xxFIP, TIPS), and by a current poster, Northof49 (FRIAS). They are usually better predictors of next-year ERA than current year ERA is. There are rare cases (rare enough that Mariano Rivera is one of them) that over a large sample, a pitcher can out-perform his DIPS in his ERA. Buehrle is another guy like that.

 

However, guys with less-than-massive samples who are assumed to be "DIPS-beaters" usually aren't. Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Romero, Matt Cain are some good examples of guys that aren't. That's the big argument against Sanchize. Estrada could be, very slightly, but 4/10th's of a run is a MASSIVE difference, and even then, Estrada doesn't look very good. As well, over the course of his career, he hasn't out-performed his DIPS that much, despite being a good candidate for it.

 

In all, it's not really wise to bet big amounts of money on guys being "DIPS-beaters." Would love to answer any further questions.

 

That is a great explanation, thank you.

[GD]

The only real takeaway from that article is that he gets a lot of IFFBs (typical of extreme FB pitchers) and manages LD well.

 

The rest of the article is stupid. Using a pitcher's OBP and SLG to create an ERA estimator, and then using its proximity to his ERA to argue that his ERA is closer than his FIP to his true talent is lunacy. The ERA was low because the OBP and SLG were low.

 

All that to say, he might induce weak contact. He probably does. But that's not going to turn a 4.9 xFIP into a sub-4 ERA over the long term. No pitcher in history has been that good at managing contact. If you're projecting Estrada at a sub-4 ERA, you're banking on a K/BB skill improvement, a GB skill improvement, or a combination of the two.

 

It's also double counting. OBP and SLG are obviously already counted in ERA; the rate at which players reach base and how many bases they take when they do is clearly a part of ERA. The point of a model is to take non-direct variables that act as indicators, is it not? North taught me some word for that. Causality or something, no idea.

 

Could be totally off, I know jack s***.

[Dr Negative]

I don't believe I had read anything by Blengino before that Estrada article just now, but it led me to conclude that he's a moron.

 

I think it shows that some GM out there will find a reason to throw a lot of money at Estrada though.

[GD]

I don't believe I had read anything by Blengino before that Estrada article just now, but it led me to conclude that he's a moron.

 

I'll provide a quick summary.

 

-Weird obsession with percentiles

-Worked for Jack Z - had major beef, got fired

-Not a very good writer in terms of English nor content; has been made fun of by people we both know who are rather smart, might even be a "Fangraphs dot com guy"

[Scion]

The only real takeaway from that article is that he gets a lot of IFFBs (typical of extreme FB pitchers) and manages LD well.

 

The rest of the article is stupid. Using a pitcher's OBP and SLG to create an ERA estimator, and then using its proximity to his ERA to argue that his ERA is closer than his FIP to his true talent is lunacy. The ERA was low because the OBP and SLG were low. To question whether the ERA is a skill is to question whether the OBP/SLG was a skill.

 

All that to say, he might induce weak contact. He probably does. But that's not going to turn a 4.9 xFIP into a sub-4 ERA over the long term. No pitcher in history has been that good at managing contact. If you're projecting Estrada at a sub-4 ERA, you're banking on a K/BB skill improvement, a GB skill improvement, or a combination of the two.

 

When you put it that way it's hard to disagree that he isn't deserving of a big raise. What would you consider a reasonable extension for Estrada?

[reedjohnsonfan]

I think he'll get 4/48.

 

No chance he gets 4 years IMO.

[GD]

When you put it that way it's hard to disagree that he isn't deserving of a big raise. What would you consider a reasonable extension for Estrada?

 

Wasn't addressed at me but I just remarked to Boxy that if he was on 2/16 (which I might revise to something more reasonable like 2/20) I'd be totally fine with Estrada.

[BTS]

It's also double counting. OBP and SLG are obviously already counted in ERA; the rate at which players reach base and how many bases they take when they do is clearly a part of ERA. The point of a model is to take non-direct variables that act as indicators, is it not? North taught me some word for that. Causality or something, no idea.

 

Could be totally off, I know jack s***.

 

Yeah, it's just a pointless exercise. The same factors that are out of the pitcher's control and make ERA unreliable make OPS unreliable.

[GD]

Yeah, it's just a pointless exercise. The same factors that are out of the pitcher's control and make ERA unreliable make OPS unreliable.

 

Also very important that I did not mention

[BTS]

Now that this thread has happened, Estrada is going to put up like a 3 ERA and 3.3 xFIP next year, causing this thread to be bumped until the end of time.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Now that this thread has happened, Estrada is going to put up like a 3 ERA and 3.3 xFIP next year, causing this thread to be bumped until the end of time.

 

That would be great, he's a likeable guy and regardless of where he signs I'll be supporting him.

[L54]

That would be great, he's a likeable guy and regardless of where he signs I'll be supporting him.

 

I agree. Marco seems like an extremely humble and soft spoken guy who just goes about his business. A real professional. Here's hoping he gets a couple more starts as a Blue Jay!

[KingKat]

One thing I'd like to point out about Estrada is that he really deserves a lot of credit for the run he's on right now. He had some starts in the regular season where he danced around a lot of walks and big fly balls but the run he has been on since his last start in Tampa has been pretty legit. I'm not saying that to advocate a big salary for him. I think it's fair to look at the cold hard numbers and what he did through the entire season and recent career when making financial decisions but I just want to point that he is legitimately pitching his best ball of the season right now. I wouldn't want anyone to feel like anyone here is trying to diminish that.

[Angrioter]

17 isn't Estrada money, it's Edwin money.

 

3/28 is a good deal

[CHRIS]

No man, its Hayward. He'll come to Canada and understand our "Hey" is actually pronounced "Hay" and update his name accordingly.

 

 

god dammit lol..

 

Eh-ward

[ProfessionalAtBat]

I dont want Estrada back if Martin is not his catcher

[Krylian]

17 isn't Estrada money, it's Edwin money.

 

3/28 is a good deal

 

He's gonna get waaay more than that.

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

I agree, he has just delivered 2 of his best starts in postseason eliminators, coming through in the clutch will be an intangible that will help him get a much better than 3/28 deal.

 

I would qualify him but hope that he gets a multi-year offer too good to refuse elsewhere. If not then stomach it for next season while Edwin and Jose are still cheap

[KingKat]

I agree, he has just delivered 2 of his best starts in postseason eliminators, coming through in the clutch will be an intangible that will help him get a much better than 3/28 deal.

 

I would qualify him but hope that he gets a multi-year offer too good to refuse elsewhere. If not then stomach it for next season while Edwin and Jose are still cheap

 

The catch with the Q.O. is that once you give it, the market for the player changes. Whatever the market for him was, it goes down when there's compensation attached so it's not just about what he'd be worth on the open market, you have to regress that a bit when factoring the compensation and then decide whether or not to Q.O. That's assuming of course that you don't actually want the player at the q.o. figure. If you're fine with him accepting then the discussion is moot because it's win-win.

[Angrioter]

I agree, he has just delivered 2 of his best starts in postseason eliminators, coming through in the clutch will be an intangible that will help him get a much better than 3/28 deal.

 

I would qualify him but hope that he gets a multi-year offer too good to refuse elsewhere. If not then stomach it for next season while Edwin and Jose are still cheap

 

1/16M is too much money

[KingKat]

The catch with the Q.O. is that once you give it, the market for the player changes. Whatever the market for him was, it goes down when there's compensation attached so it's not just about what he'd be worth on the open market, you have to regress that a bit when factoring the compensation and then decide whether or not to Q.O. That's assuming of course that you don't actually want the player at the q.o. figure. If you're fine with him accepting then the discussion is moot because it's win-win.

 

I guess in the end the real question is are you comfortable with Estrada for one year at the q.o. amount? If you're only offering it in the hope that he turns it down than you probably shouldn't take the risk.

[HERPDERP]

It's amazing just how much of a big red flag Estrada was coming into RC, and he has shut all of us up.

 

Kind of like Nelson Cruz and Safeco.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

They should get the guy from " Chips" to ride out on his hog dressed as RCMP or a OPP cop to throw out the first pitch his next start!!! I would f***ing giggle!!! Lol