General Jays Discussion 2015

[reedjohnsonfan]

Why? Honestly why?

 

K.......................

[CHRIS]

Hey guys what about that Saunders guy?

 

Tough to plan on him being a part of the starting group. Need to see him truly healthy first.

[Jayzfan79]

At the very least, I would flip Pillar and Revere in this alignement. Revere is a LF (and a CF in a desperate emergency). He's not a RF in any scenario.

 

reason why i did the alignment as i did is because Revere has played a little more in RF than LF and Pillar starting the year in LF. Pompey is the CF of the future so that is where he goes.

 

Ben Revere:

LF: 779.1 Innings, 3A, 1E

RF: 854 Innings, 6A, 0E

 

albeit it is only marginally better, it does show that he is competent out there.

 

also i was looking at who we have now....not who we 'could' have next year via trade or FA signings.

[L54]

I really don't see Bautista moving to 1B unitl after 2016 if/when they resign him. Feed him some ******** like "look Jose, you're getting older and we want to keep you as healthy as possible. We feel moving you to first gives us the best chance to keep your bat in the lineup." I really doubt Bautista willingly moves to 1B next year.

 

Some interesting 2017 FA outfielders are:

Coghlan

Holliday

Gomez

Reddick

[BlueBirdBro]

Edwin AL Player of the Month

[baubau]

Estrada continues to make quality starts. Do we let him go? Offer him a QO? Offer him a 3-year, $30M deal?

 

With Shapiro coming abroad he'll likely not extend him a deal. I could see a potential QO assuming Estrada won't take it, which he may not and try to ride out this offseason for a large contract. The reason the Jays shouldn't want him back is his peripherals are bad and getting worse over the years.

 

His xFIP has declined each of the past 3 years:

 

2013 - 3.63

2014 - 4.19

2015 - 4.83

 

His K/9 has also decreased while his BB/9 has increased over that time as well.

 

2013 - K/9: 8.30 & BB/9: 2.04

2014 - K/9: 7.59 & BB/9: 2.63

2015 - K/9: 6.77 & BB/9: 2.78

 

What has made him successful this year is his HR/FB rate is far lower than his career average (11.1%) at 7.9%. Previous to this year his HR/FB rate was increasing from 10.3%, 10.5%, 11.9% and 13.2% each year.

Estrada has gotten very lucky this season and while looking back he was a good buy low candidate last year, this year you're buying him very high and a team will likely regret it. Hope its not the Jays.

[GD]

Baubau, use xFIP- instead of xFIP. It's important to consider the changes in coming from the NL to the AL.

[baubau]

Baubau, use xFIP- instead of xFIP. It's important to consider the changes in coming from the NL to the AL.

 

Pft. You aint da bawse of me!

 

 

 

 

but good point lol! I forget about that. His xFIP- is even worse here in the AL at 121 compared to 114 last year with the Brewers. Seriously, the Jays doctors must have shoved a horseshoe up Estrada's butt to start this season. They need to find another one and call Drew into the office.

[dineke]

The guy throws 88 mph fastballs at the top of the zone. Don't know how he doesn't give up a hr every inning.

[burlingtonbandit]

Funny thing about Estrada's strikeouts is he's getting almost the same number of whiffs he always has.

[o2cui2i]

Pft. You aint da bawse of me!

 

 

 

but good point lol! I forget about that. His xFIP- is even worse here in the AL at 121 compared to 114 last year with the Brewers. Seriously, the Jays doctors must have shoved a horseshoe up Estrada's butt to start this season. They need to find another one and call Drew into the office.

 

lol... turn your head and cough

[L54]

17M to Estrada does not sound like a good way to maximize dollars spent.

 

Yes, even for just one year.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

With Shapiro coming abroad he'll likely not extend him a deal. I could see a potential QO assuming Estrada won't take it, which he may not and try to ride out this offseason for a large contract. The reason the Jays shouldn't want him back is his peripherals are bad and getting worse over the years.

 

His xFIP has declined each of the past 3 years:

 

2013 - 3.63

2014 - 4.19

2015 - 4.83

 

His K/9 has also decreased while his BB/9 has increased over that time as well.

 

2013 - K/9: 8.30 & BB/9: 2.04

2014 - K/9: 7.59 & BB/9: 2.63

2015 - K/9: 6.77 & BB/9: 2.78

 

What has made him successful this year is his HR/FB rate is far lower than his career average (11.1%) at 7.9%. Previous to this year his HR/FB rate was increasing from 10.3%, 10.5%, 11.9% and 13.2% each year.

Estrada has gotten very lucky this season and while looking back he was a good buy low candidate last year, this year you're buying him very high and a team will likely regret it. Hope its not the Jays.

 

Good analysis.

 

So, come post-season (if we make it) you'd like him out of the rotation, since he's been riding lady luck the last 10 starts, correct?

[GD]

LOL @ Estrada $17m

[GD]

Good analysis.

 

So, come post-season (if we make it) you'd like him out of the rotation, since he's been riding lady luck the last 10 starts, correct?

 

This is probably ideal, yeah. I've previously proposed piggybacking, but if it came down to it, just flat out moving him to a relief role would be good in my books as well.

[Laika]

NB that an Estrada start in the playoffs likely also means a start for Navarro, who has become his personal fatty caddy. No thanks!

 

If everyone is healthy and fresh enough, you'd have to think they go with a 4-man of Price, Stro, Buehrle, Dickey (hopefully with Stroman lined up 2nd!).

[SaskJaysFan_2]

NB that an Estrada start in the playoffs likely also means a start for Navarro, who has become his personal fatty caddy. No thanks!

 

If everyone is healthy and fresh enough, you'd have to think they go with a 4-man of Price, Stro, Buehrle, Dickey (hopefully with Stroman lined up 2nd!).

 

Geez, I take Estrada over Stroman. Stroman hasn't pitched in the majors in almost a year. I wouldn't put eggs in that basket just yet.

 

If we face off in the WC with Price, and win, then I'd like to see Dickey pitch game 1 of the next series for the Dickey effect.

[Laika]

The guy throws 88 mph fastballs at the top of the zone. Don't know how he doesn't give up a hr every inning.

 

Estrada's fastball has the least vertical drop of all starters this season. This means it has a s*** ton of backspin. It probably annoys a lot of hitters as he pitches up in the zone and they swing under 89mph fastballs that they are used to squaring up.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=12&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Laika]

Geez, I take Estrada over Stroman. Stroman hasn't pitched in the majors in almost a year. I wouldn't put eggs in that basket just yet.

 

If we face off in the WC with Price, and win, then I'd like to see Dickey pitch game 1 of the next series for the Dickey effect.

 

Yeah but assuming health, as I said, by the time the playoffs roll around Stroman will have pitched in the majors this year.

[43211234]

Division series start October 8th. Stroman will have almost a full month in the rotation, plus the two rehab starts, plus the sim games he has already thrown.

 

Time isn't a concern at all.

[baubau]

Good analysis.

 

So, come post-season (if we make it) you'd like him out of the rotation, since he's been riding lady luck the last 10 starts, correct?

 

Yep, I would. Unless injuries or something along those lines happen *knock on wood* it doesn't, he shouldn't be in the rotation come playoff time. I hate buying into this but with how extreme his home splits have been you can't have Estrada over Hutch at home. While I know you may be concerned on Stroman, and it is fair, if he shows he's "got it" again through the minors and majors then he is more than capable of taking over that spot from Estrada.

 

The only pitcher I could see Estrada taking over is Dickey and that is in part to having Thole in the lineup. If it comes to "crunch" time in a series he may get the nod so not to take Martin's bat and head out of the lineup. He's been turrble when catching Dickey.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Division series start October 8th. Stroman will have almost a full month in the rotation, plus the two rehab starts, plus the sim games he has already thrown.

 

Time isn't a concern at all.

 

If the Yankees would just f*** off, we could look forward to the division series. but man they are beating up on Boston again. They will not go away. I am hopeful for a WC spot.

[intentional wok]

The last calendar month for the Jays in streaks:

 

L1 (July 28)

W3 (July 29-31)

L1 (Aug 1)

W11 (Aug 2-13)

L2 (Aug 14-15)

W2 (Aug 16-18)

L1 (Aug 19)

W5 (Aug 21-26)

L1 (Aug 27)

 

Total: 21-6

 

What a time to be alive

 

Picking this back up:

 

W3 (Aug 28-30)

L1 (Aug 31)

W2 (Sept 1-2)

 

26-7

[burlingtonbandit]

NB that an Estrada start in the playoffs likely also means a start for Navarro, who has become his personal fatty caddy. No thanks!

 

If everyone is healthy and fresh enough, you'd have to think they go with a 4-man of Price, Stro, Buehrle, Dickey (hopefully with Stroman lined up 2nd!).

 

If you get the first 2 starts at home would you put Dickey 2nd since he seems to pitch better with the dome closed in an controlled environment? Also lets you maximize the Dickey effect for the next game. Have Stroman go game 3 and buehrle game 4 if you need him.

[Jimcanuck]

Estrada's fastball has the least vertical drop of all starters this season. This means it has a s*** ton of backspin. It probably annoys a lot of hitters as he pitches up in the zone and they swing under 89mph fastballs that they are used to squaring up.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=12&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

so ideally you have Estrada come out of the bullpen after a pitcher with extreme sink.... like a knuckler

 

assuming Burly doesn't have dead arm, i'd go Price, Dickey, Stroman, Burly..... if he has dead arm, replace Burly with Hutch

 

Burly would be a fantastic LOOGY out of the bullpen

[fireballW]

Yeah but assuming health, as I said, by the time the playoffs roll around Stroman will have pitched in the majors this year.

 

Really hard decisions for the club regarding Stroman and it will get even harder during the postseason. Estrada has really been just huge in helping us get to where we are, it would be so hard for him to hear he's not starting anymore after all he's done. Having said that, Stroman really has a lot to offer if he is fully stretched out and ready to go.

[dineke]

Really hard decisions for the club regarding Stroman and it will get even harder during the postseason. Estrada has really been just huge in helping us get to where we are, it would be so hard for him to hear he's not starting anymore after all he's done. Having said that, Stroman really has a lot to offer if he is fully stretched out and ready to go.

 

Not hard at all. If stroman is himself he's in there.

[glory]

Price, Dickey, Stroman, and Buehrle in that order in a five or seven game series. Martin catches everyone.

[BTS]

Price, Dickey, Stroman, and Buehrle in that order in a five or seven game series. Martin catches everyone.

 

Yeah. Martin shouldn't have a single day off through the playoffs unless he's too hurt to play. I'd also slot Stroman in second. I'm all for the Dickey effect, but there should be zero chance of Dickey getting more starts in a series than a healthy Stroman.

[RealAccountant]

Shouldn't you be planning the Rays playoffs rotation