What to make of Blue Jays run differential?

[Terminator]

They are currently tied for 3rd in MLB in RD at +26 (tied with Astros and Nats) and we easily lead the AL East in RD.

 

So we've been unlucky, but does that mean that over the course of the season if we keep playing like this that the wins should follow?

 

Does anyone with a better understanding of this have something to add or care to explain this in greater detail? Thanks.

[SparkyAnderson]

They are currently tied for 3rd in MLB in RD at +26 (tied with Astros and Nats) and we easily lead the AL East in RD.

 

So we've been unlucky, but does that mean that over the course of the season if we keep playing like this that the wins should follow?

 

Does anyone with a better understanding of this have something to add or care to explain this in greater detail? Thanks.

 

 

We've had quite a few blowout wins this season (7-0, 7-1, 6-1,8-2 etc). When the offense is rolling we can put up big numbers and easily win games, the issue is when the offense doesn't score 4-5+ runs we are losing most of the time. We have a very good offense but our pitching has been garbage so unless that changes the losses will continue to pile up.

[RealAccountant]

It means:

a.) we have been a good team

b.) we have been unlucky with timing

c.) not much else

 

To know if we will be good going forward you should use projections.

 

A good RD along with a bad WL = Bad Bullpen

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

A good RD along with a bad WL = Bad Bullpen

 

False, have you seen what up until late we called or had from the starting pitching?

 

The bullpen is closer to league averages then the staters, go look if Ya don't believe me!

[mtljaysfan]

We can't win close games - trademark of a bad team

[RealAccountant]

Good RD + bad WL = bad close game record

 

Close games require the bull pen more since they are the result of either the bullpen unable to hold leads or the bullpen failing to keep the score tied

 

Are they still 2-12 in one run games?

[Governator]

Good RD + bad WL = bad close game record

 

Close games require the bull pen more since they are the result of either the bullpen unable to hold leads or the bullpen failing to keep the score tied

 

Are they still 2-12 in one run games?

 

 

Yea close games have destroyed them. They aren't the Orioles of 2012.

[glory]

It means:

a.) we have been a good team

b.) we have been unlucky with timing

c.) not much else

 

To know if we will be good going forward you should use projections.

 

Other than Hutchison and Buehrle, does any pitching actually project to improve as the season goes on? Dickey can't fool batters anymore, Estrada is a swing man/#5 starter, and Sanchez is Drabek with groundballs.

[Frag]

Bad starting pitching.

[RealAccountant]

While the starting pitching has been awful the hitters have found a way to get leads

 

Leads have been blown by the bullpen. 8 blown saves most in the majors. Cut that in half and we are in first place

 

I can't blame AA for starters. However he did not address the bullpen despite numerous opportunities

[Statman]

They are currently tied for 3rd in MLB in RD at +26 (tied with Astros and Nats) and we easily lead the AL East in RD.

 

So we've been unlucky, but does that mean that over the course of the season if we keep playing like this that the wins should follow?

 

Does anyone with a better understanding of this have something to add or care to explain this in greater detail? Thanks.

 

Once you tie it in with a record it is easy to understand.

 

Top 5 positive run differential and last in the division = not winning close ball games especially 1 run games.

 

On the contrary if you look at teams with negative run differentials or closer to neutral and are winning the division or fighting for wildcard = winning close ball games and 1 run games.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Statman

[Statman]

We can't win close games - trademark of a bad team

 

You are correct.

[RealAccountant]

Winning close games is also a marker of manager contribution

[RealAccountant]

Here are Gibbys numbers in 1 run games

 

2013 20-29

2014 15-20

2015 2-10

 

Overall 37-59

[Statman]

Winning close games is also a marker of manager contribution

 

1. Bullpen
   
2. Clutch Hitting/RISP/High Leverage
   
3. Manager
   
4. 
   

 

In that order

[Terminator]

Close games require the bull pen more since they are the result of either the bullpen unable to hold leads or the bullpen failing to keep the score tied

 

I don't believe that. A 4-1 lead with a bad bullpen is more likely to result in a close game than with a good bullpen.

 

I think 1 run games are mostly luck aren't they?

[RealAccountant]

Don't the Jays usually have a good RD? I seem to notice every year that our RD is better than a lot of teams ahead of us in the standings. This isn't a new thing.

 

The last good manager this team.had was Tim.Johnson

[Terminator]

It means:

a.) we have been a good team

b.) we have been unlucky with timing

c.) not much else

 

To know if we will be good going forward you should use projections.

 

Sucks we've played well with nothing to show for it. I don't think this is a great team so making up for bad luck to win the division will be a challenge.

[Statman]

I don't believe that. A 4-1 lead with a bad bullpen is more likely to result in a close game than with a good bullpen.

 

I think 1 run games are mostly luck aren't they?

 

I don't agree with that at all. 1 run game records are usually a sign of a great or bad bullpen. IMO luck has very little to do with it.

[RealAccountant]

I still don't understand why Alex ignored impending issues and what made him think that an A ball rookie will be able to be an effective mlb closer

[Jimcanuck]

Jays have teed off against s*** starters, but against good starters, the 2/3 AAAA lineup and poor SP mean low scoring losses. We can't compete against good pitching.

[Orgfiller]

Jays have teed off against s*** starters, but against good starters, the 2/3 AAAA lineup and poor SP mean low scoring losses. We can't compete against good pitching.

 

Yeah, because it's really weird that teams will tee off Hector Noesi but struggle against Felix Hernandez.

 

f*** sakes man, think for a second...

[King]

Yeah, because it's really weird that teams will tee off Hector Noesi but struggle against Felix Hernandez.

 

f*** sakes man, think for a second...

 

lmao

[burlingtonbandit]

They probably have a few extra runs from the Jays being up 5-0 only for the other team to put in a s*** lefty and our hitters score another 5+ runs which is why the run differential is a lot higher. But I'm sure this is the case for most teams...

 

Jays really need another LH bat though. Seems like in close games other teams will have a difficult ROOGY cruise through JD-JB-EE-RM.

[Atothe]

They probably have a few extra runs from the Jays being up 5-0 only for the other team to put in a s*** lefty and our hitters score another 5+ runs which is why the run differential is a lot higher. But I'm sure this is the case for most teams...

 

Jays really need another LH bat though. Seems like in close games other teams will have a difficult ROOGY cruise through JD-JB-EE-RM.

 

Which of those guys are gonna get pinch hit for?

Edited May 26, 2015 by Atothe

[Ambassador Ch0n]

Don't the Jays usually have a good RD? I seem to notice every year that our RD is better than a lot of teams ahead of us in the standings. This isn't a new thing.

 

Yup, seems to be the way I remember things these past few seasons.

 

Pythagoras hates us.

[Dick_Pole]

Yup, seems to be the way I remember things these past few seasons.

 

Pythagoras hates us.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/

 

Jays all time record: 3,006-3,072

Runs for: 28,063

Runs against: 27,921

 

This is not something new this year, or the past few seasons, but for the life of this franchise.

[burlingtonbandit]

Which of those guys are gonna pinch hit for?

 

Meant it would be nice to have a LH hitter in between to balance it out. Adam Lind could be a trade candidate? Oh wait...

[Hammer]

We've had quite a few blowout wins this season (7-0, 7-1, 6-1,8-2 etc). When the offense is rolling we can put up big numbers and easily win games, the issue is when the offense doesn't score 4-5+ runs we are losing most of the time. We have a very good offense but our pitching has been garbage so unless that changes the losses will continue to pile up.

 

They've also been wasting a few quality starts recently by not getting enough offense. The problems are mainly due to the bullpen and some sub-par starts as well, but also partly due to injuries in the lineup.

[Hipfan]

Our pitching seems to have turned a bit of a corner, while the hitters have slumped a bit. We've also endured a large amount of injuries, so I'd expect things to turn around soon. They aren't as good as their RD suggests, and they aren't as bad as their record indicates.