What to make of Blue Jays run differential?

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah, because it's really weird that teams will tee off Hector Noesi but struggle against Felix Hernandez.

 

f*** sakes man, think for a second...

 

Maybe you should re-read what I wrote and think for a second. A good offense with crap pitching is going to have a high standard deviation on both runs scored and runs against (ie. more statistical extremes), whereas a poor offense with good pitching is going to have a low standard deviation on both. The anomaly of the RD not correlating with W-L is more likely for the Jays given the tendency for extremes. There's also randomness involved as JFAS stated.

 

And then there's the RC bandbox

[sdyment]

Haven't got around to reading it yet, but it seemed to follow the theme here...

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/houston-astros-toronto-blue-jays-season-projections-prediction-052615

[RealAccountant]

The War Vet?

 

88 wins

[o2cui2i]

Our pitching has been pretty bad, but our offense has crushed some pitchers and not been able to touch others. Jimenez has absolutely pwned us this year.

 

the off thing is that it's not that they just struggle against good pitching. some good pitchers have been smashed by the jays and some mediocre pitchers have raped our lineup. it's strange, but it is the way things are this year and has been for a few years.

 

Jays can go in against king Felix and kick his ass 8 runs and then go against a soft tossing lefties and get only 1 run?? why that is even possible is the question.

[King]

Our pitching has been pretty bad, but our offense has crushed some pitchers and not been able to touch others. Jimenez has absolutely pwned us this year.

 

the off thing is that it's not that they just struggle against good pitching. some good pitchers have been smashed by the jays and some mediocre pitchers have raped our lineup. it's strange, but it is the way things are this year and has been for a few years.

 

Jays can go in against king Felix and kick his ass 8 runs and then go against a soft tossing lefties and get only 1 run?? why that is even possible is the question.

 

Do you have any statistics to back this up?

[Spanky99]

The War Vet?

 

lol

[Spanky99]

They are currently tied for 3rd in MLB in RD at +26 (tied with Astros and Nats) and we easily lead the AL East in RD.

 

So we've been unlucky, but does that mean that over the course of the season if we keep playing like this that the wins should follow?

 

Does anyone with a better understanding of this have something to add or care to explain this in greater detail? Thanks.

 

Absolutely.

[BlueJayWay]

Yeah. If the Jays somehow end the season with the third best run differential in MLB, and first in AL East, I love their chances. Doubt that'll happen though.

[glory]

It comes down to the rotation. Hutchison's ERA is slowly catching up to his FIP. Buehrle is Buehrle. Estrada is likely a #5 starter. That leaves Dickey and Sanchez. I think Dickey is toast, and Sanchez is barely getting by with his walk rate. One of those two will have to give the team average to better production for the rest of the season. Dickey has a better chance of doing that but if his knuckleball is FUBAR, then he's going to be s***.

 

Damn, Stroman's injury was so costly.

[RealAccountant]

It comes down to the rotation. Hutchison's ERA is slowly catching up to his FIP. Buehrle is Buehrle. Estrada is likely a #5 starter. That leaves Dickey and Sanchez. I think Dickey is toast, and Sanchez is barely getting by with his walk rate. One of those two will have to give the team average to better production for the rest of the season. Dickey has a better chance of doing that but if his knuckleball is FUBAR, then he's going to be s***.

 

Damn, Stroman's injury was so costly.

 

Doesn't fix the issues with the pen

[nextyear]

Just a couple of interesting notes about the Blue Jays team Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA), which can be obtained from this link - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20150728 (scroll all the way to the right to get RS and RA).

 

For the first 101 games up to and including July 28th, 2015, the Blues Jays had a win-loss record of 50-51:

Total Runs Scored = 530 Runs Scored per game = 5.25/game

Total Runs Allowed = 436 Runs Allowed per game = 4.32/game

 

On July 29th Tulowitzki played his first game at SS, soon after Ben Revere was acquired and has played in almost every inning in LF, and David Price was obtained. During this 46 game period the Blue Jays had a win-loss record of 35-11. Although Tulowitzki hasn't played in every game because of injury, the improvement in defense (both pitching and fielding) over the past 46 games has been undeniable.

 

For the next 46 games from July 29th up to and including September 18th, 2015

Total Runs Scored = 282 Runs Scored per game = 6.13/game

Total Runs Allowed = 161 Runs Allowed per game = 3.50/game

[candymartinez]

Just a couple of interesting notes about the Blue Jays team Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA), which can be obtained from this link - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20150728 (scroll all the way to the right to get RS and RA).

 

For the first 101 games up to and including July 28th, 2015, the Blues Jays had a win-loss record of 50-51:

Total Runs Scored = 530 Runs Scored per game = 5.25/game

Total Runs Allowed = 436 Runs Allowed per game = 4.32/game

 

On July 29th Tulowitzki played his first game at SS, soon after Ben Revere was acquired and has played in almost every inning in LF, and David Price was obtained. During this 46 game period the Blue Jays had a win-loss record of 35-11. Although Tulowitzki hasn't played in every game because of injury, the improvement in defense (both pitching and fielding) over the past 46 games has been undeniable.

 

For the next 46 games from July 29th up to and including September 18th, 2015

Total Runs Scored = 282 Runs Scored per game = 6.13/game

Total Runs Allowed = 161 Runs Allowed per game = 3.50/game

 

So you're saying the Jays have better since the trade deadline?

Go figure.

[nextyear]

So you're saying the Jays have better since the trade deadline?

Go figure.

 

Not just better, much better. Before the trades they were outscoring their opponents by 0.93 runs per game, after the trades and players started playing on July 29th they have been outscoring their opponents by 2.63 runs per game.

[TilsonBritoFan]

Just a couple of interesting notes about the Blue Jays team Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA), which can be obtained from this link - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20150728 (scroll all the way to the right to get RS and RA).

 

For the first 101 games up to and including July 28th, 2015, the Blues Jays had a win-loss record of 50-51:

Total Runs Scored = 530 Runs Scored per game = 5.25/game

Total Runs Allowed = 436 Runs Allowed per game = 4.32/game

 

On July 29th Tulowitzki played his first game at SS, soon after Ben Revere was acquired and has played in almost every inning in LF, and David Price was obtained. During this 46 game period the Blue Jays had a win-loss record of 35-11. Although Tulowitzki hasn't played in every game because of injury, the improvement in defense (both pitching and fielding) over the past 46 games has been undeniable.

 

For the next 46 games from July 29th up to and including September 18th, 2015

Total Runs Scored = 282 Runs Scored per game = 6.13/game

Total Runs Allowed = 161 Runs Allowed per game = 3.50/game

 

 

Thats actually quite incredible. Basically if we could play over an entire season the way we've played over the last 46 games we'd be the best team of all time with 123 wins. And we really show no sign of slowing down. This team has literally been a .750 team for a month and a half now.