Roberto Osuna or Noah Syndergaard in 5+ years?

[Nafro]

Yes. Red Flags should go off when a "Cy Young" award winner is willing to negotiate a "below market" extension prior to hitting the open market.

[Smokey]

Worst trade of his tenure? I might only be the third worst trade of that offseason after the Marlins deal and the Indians deal.

 

I don't disagree... In terms of value those trades have cost the organization a lot more but very few people expected much out of Gomes and the financial commitment was more of an issue with the Miami deal rather than the players/prospects going the other way. I could at least see the rationale for why a desperate GM who is having a hard time recruiting FA's would want to trade some of his raw assets for proven big leaguers. But to trade some of your top prospects to overpay for a 40+ year old junk baller with the belief that he's the last missing piece of the puzzle was completely irrational and premature IMO.

[TheHurl]

Still think the Dickey deal was more "overkill" (just not knowing where the team was yet, but assuming after the Marlins deal it was a contender), but as far as value goes there were some experts that were calling it a wash or close to it. Personally I was biased as a TdA fanatic. I think the projections were around Dickey providing us with around 7 or so WAR over the 4 years of the contract. He was a little below projections for the first two years (but provided positive value), and I don't see any way he earns his contract this year and they'd be stupid to give him the option.

[TheHurl]

the financial commitment was more of an issue with the Miami deal rather than the players/prospects going the other way.

 

People keep saying this but the players were a big deal, individually they all have value. Alvarez has provided 4.1 fWAR (to Buehrle's 5.3), Marisnick 1.4 WAR and was a major piece in a deal for Cosart (2.0 fWAR himself). DeSclafani (0.5 fWAR) was traded for Mat Latos (a $9.4M 1 year contract that many wanted to the Jays to pick up this year), Escobar (I don't give a s*** about the "had to go" stuff...that was their own PR department mishandling) 4.4 fWAR and traded three times (all for positive value players, including this year for a top 20 reliever), Nicolino is still a top 100-150 (depending on what list you use) prospect. Hech is the outlier here as his defensive metrics have not matched what he was thought to be. He's put up -1.0 fWAR.

 

So alone the players involved have gone:

 

Players going out 9.4 fWAR

Players coming in 12.0 fWAR

 

Once you calculate the continued control years for the players going out it's pretty much a value and actual loss. Or the players could have been individually dealt and provided solid returns.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Thanks for sharing that, interesting!

[Smokey]

People keep saying this but the players were a big deal, individually they all have value.

 

Once you calculate the continued control years for the players going out it's pretty much a value and actual loss. Or the players could have been individually dealt and provided solid returns.

 

 

Of course the players traded had a lot of value and I've already acknowledged the loss in the same sentence you edited out. What I was trying to say is that the players given up, although quite valuable as a whole, didn't have a tremendously high upside individually and the club could actually afford to trade them at the time. It obviously hasn't worked out and I'm in no way trying to defend the move but I could at least live with what was given up as long as the club had the financial resources to further improve itself. Having to spend over 30% of your budget on Reyes and Buehrle and then crying about being broke is more unacceptable than the loss in value, at least IMO.

[baubau]

Worst trade of his tenure? I might only be the third worst trade of that offseason after the Marlins deal and the Indians deal.

 

I say you were THE worst trade of that offseason. God dammit AA.

 

[Governator]

If only Josh Johnson had bounced back and pitched above projected levels like we hoped.

[Jimcanuck]

If only Josh Johnson had bounced back and pitched above projected levels like we hoped.

 

Ya, and Morrow didn't get hurt, Romero didn't implode, Dickey pitched closer to a Cy guy than medocrity, then maybe

[Praxis]

So just to be clear, if we hadn't made the Marlins trade we would have been worse than 73-89 and 74-88 in the following 2 seasons? Holy s***.

[ElNik2013]

So just to be clear, if we hadn't made the Marlins trade we would have been worse than 73-89 and 74-88 in the following 2 seasons? Holy s***.

 

 

The Jays went 73-89 during the 2012 season, The Marlins Trade was made after the 2012 season.

 

And even those vehemently opposed to that trade will tell you the team projected better than the team they would've fielded without the players acquired in The Marlins Trade.

 

It would also have been a cheaper team that would've drawn fewer fans and lower tv ratings.

 

 

It is what it is.

[Praxis]

The Jays went 73-89 during the 2012 season, The Marlins Trade was made after the 2012 season.

 

And even those vehemently opposed to that trade will tell you the team projected better than the team they would've fielded without the players acquired in The Marlins Trade.

 

It would also have been a cheaper team that would've drawn fewer fans and lower tv ratings.

 

 

It is what it is.

 

You're right. The trades made us one win better; my mistake.

[ElNik2013]

You're right. The trades made us one win better; my mistake.

 

 

If you want to be a smartass, go ahead.

[Praxis]

If you want to be a smartass, go ahead.

 

Sorry if it came across that way; I was trying to acknowledge my error in our season to season record, but it came out badly I think. You were correct sir, we went 74-88 after the trade and had 73 wins prior. My mistake.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Praxis

[King]

Osuna as long as he continues to develop the offspeed pitches.

 

Epic bump

 

After 1 MLB season

 

http://i.imgur.com/esr8nxw.png

[Laika]

Wow, this thread is amazing and hilarious but it also makes me pretty sad.

 

So many morons here. Waste of time.

[King]

This board is honestly f***ing retarded.

 

Syndergaard over both easily.

 

3.42 true talent MLB FIP as a starter.

 

If you just read that and the thought of posting his line tonight entered your mind, please go drown yourself in the nearest toilet.

 

lol

[King]

Wait im suppose to believe Synder is better because some idiots have him ranked the best RHP prospect.. thats utter garbage. Get over prospect rankings they usually mean s***

 

Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp

[BTS]

lmao @ Hoffman over Syndergaard

[FrozenRopes]

Amazing thread

[Effit]

lol

[Laika]

once you come out of the off topic section, where all the stats peeps hang out, you get into the heart and emotion section of the forum. There are a lot of people who are just as valid fans of baseball and the jays, but have no idea what metrics are.

 

DON'T argue stats with people who don't know anything about them. Just let them have their heart and passion for baseball in their way.

 

arguing doesn't help anyone.

 

ps. you know a thread like this is going to be a s*** storm so maybe dont come back after you make your case and state the facts. You KNOW it's only going to piss you off. Bickering doesn't help anyone and only empowers the people who are not even fans, that are just here to troll and we all know there are lots of those.

 

f*** you, you scab. Garbage bike enabling piece of crap mod.

[AdamGreenwood]

Epic bump

 

After 1 MLB season

 

http://i.imgur.com/esr8nxw.png

 

Totally cherrypicking stats to make Syndergaard look better. You don't even have holds on this comparison FFS.

[King]

This thread has everything.

 

LTBF going full retard -

 

Osuna as long as he continues to develop the offspeed pitches.

 

Hoffman right now:cool:

 

Wait im suppose to believe Synder is better because some idiots have him ranked the best RHP prospect.. thats utter garbage. Get over prospect rankings they usually mean s***

 

From what I have seen he is comparable to Sanchez, but with more command of the fastball

 

Synder throws a flat fastball that I think has carried him in the minors. As long as he locates he will succeed in the mlb, but I havent seen that command yet.

 

Metafour acting like a dickhead -

 

Wrong. Hoffman has MUCH better off-speed stuff.

 

LMFAO @ those reports.

 

Syndergaard has a potential 70 curveball now? The guy who could barely spin a passable breaking ball two years ago?

 

Yeah, I totally saw that Hoffman GIF from yesterday bro and thats what I'm basing my opinion on.

 

Hoffman hasn't even made a pro pitch yet, and his "grades" right now are affected by it.

 

Watch, once he actually starts dominating against professional hitters those numerical grades will all shoot up in next year's installment of rankings. Just like Syndergaard's pitch grades have all risen as he has proven himself.

 

Hoffman easily has the better breaking ball.

 

The second part was sarcasm genius, because that was what NJH was implying: that I saw the Hoffman GIF and that was how I supposedly made my analysis.

 

Hoffman has thrown a better breaking ball throughout their individual developmental paths. That will continue once he starts pitching professionally.

 

NJH witt -

looking forward to having an 80/70/70 super-Ace in the pipeline

 

So if the Mets call and say we'll trade you Syndergaard back for Hoffman you would do it?

 

I would click accept and order a Blue Jays Syndergaard shirsey faster than you can say "I'm a bike".

 

I think you should eat a dick or two

 

Caper being Caper -

 

There is a chance, come August, Hoffman is in the majors and contributing more then Syndergaard. Long term has a chance to come sooner then you think.

 

Angrioter humor -

 

MLB ERA:

20 Osuna - 0.98

22 Syndergaard - 5.06

 

Yeah. Almost 3 years younger, and 5 times better ERA. Amaro will love Osuna.

 

The Mets focused in the best pitcher in the Jays farm. Aaron Sanchez wasn't in the table of discussion.

 

Great deal for the Mets.

 

Only King will love this shirtless man with tons of pubic hair.

 

I insult them all in spanish all the time. Then, i write in english "you're a smart guy"

 

TwistedLogic jerking off over Hoffman -

 

Hoffman will embarrass all of you peasants.

 

The carcass of his once promising career was recently cremated in tribute to the baseball gods, an act of good faith for the generosity that they have so warmly bestowed upon the Jays by gifting us Jeff Hoffman.

 

I have an off-topic philosophical question that I've been pondering lately.

 

Why does Viagra still exist, now that we have Jeff Hoffman?

 

Can we all agree that if (*when) Hoffman proves all of you utterly despicable non-believers wrong, that none of you will be allowed to enjoy the bountiful gift that is his existence? You must remain forever soft.

 

I mean, he has the word "Man" in his name. You know who else has that? Marcusstro Man. That should tell you enough.

 

#HoffmanisLove

#HoffmanisLife

#JustCallHimATop10ProspectRightNow

#WhyWait

#TheMinorsAreJustAFormality

#RoTY2016

#RoTY2017Also

 

Lame Dogg trolling -

 

Whatever happened to the third of the Lansing 3, the tall lanky left hander.

 

Cant wait till Aaron Sanchez shuts everyone up tommorrow. Era is less than 4, terrific for a rookie, and 3 wins to boot.

 

Kid pitches to win,

 

your all a bunch of kid, I rememmber the real lansing 3, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, and Kelvim Escobar. They were all highly touted prospects in the Jays farm system together, were going to be future aces. How did that turn out???

 

Only about 110 WAR between them.

 

Nox shutting down board dummies -

 

This board is honestly f***ing retarded.

 

Syndergaard over both easily.

 

3.42 true talent MLB FIP as a starter.

 

If you just read that and the thought of posting his line tonight entered your mind, please go drown yourself in the nearest toilet.

 

Now + a season's worth of uncertainty = then

 

Syndergaard = then

 

Hoffman != Syndergaard

 

I really hate threads like this.

 

Both Hoffman and Osuna are really nice arms to have in the system. I like them both quite a bit.

 

But when people start spewing utter garbage about them directly comping maybe the best RHP prospect in the game it just makes the board look awful.

 

No ********.

 

Out best analytic guess has him at a 3.40 ERA/FIP/Whatever on that scale pitcher. That has nothing to do with prospect rankings.

 

That's not going to happen. Arguing the merits of someone based on ERA/Pitcher Wins and homerism is not "passion in their own way", it's just ignorance. I have no reason to tolerate it, especially when they address a post to me.

 

o2 tossing out random warnings -

 

once you come out of the off topic section, where all the stats peeps hang out, you get into the heart and emotion section of the forum. There are a lot of people who are just as valid fans of baseball and the jays, but have no idea what metrics are.

 

DON'T argue stats with people who don't know anything about them. Just let them have their heart and passion for baseball in their way.

 

arguing doesn't help anyone.

 

ps. you know a thread like this is going to be a s*** storm so maybe dont come back after you make your case and state the facts. You KNOW it's only going to piss you off. Bickering doesn't help anyone and only empowers the people who are not even fans, that are just here to troll and we all know there are lots of those.

 

Statistics mentioned ITT: ERA, FIP

 

K.................

 

Olerud -

 

Sometimes analysis is not intuitive unless you are engaged with the data on a day to day basis.

 

Chad Jenkins != Syndergaard, should be clear to a semi-casual fan with an internet connection and a basic understanding of numbers.

 

Osuna != Syndergaard, or Hoffman != Syndergaard... I don't know

 

These guys have no or little minor league history. In the absence of numbers people rely on anecdotal data.

 

"Would of been 1st overall but tore ligament, recovered well and throwing great"

 

"Pitched in the Mexican league at 16 and reached majors at 20"

 

'unable to translate anecdotal data accurately' != 'retarded'

 

I love Wilner... we need to document his entire life because when the historians from the 25th century look back on coorporate North America Wilner is the ultimate coorparate shill.

 

You remember the moment where he had to decide whether to stand up to Cito or keep his job?? Since then we ain't ever heard from the real Wilner. I doubt he believes half the crap he says.

 

Once you make that decision... to take in the ass from coorporate America instead of standing up for what's right... if you take it in the ass you become a changed man and just enjoy the little things (a good supper, watching your kids grow up, makin' a doillar) and do your job like a robot. That's where Wilner is.

 

Wilner saying something stupid, followed by the rest of the board calling him a dumb f***

 

I just heard Wilner say that Norris, Sanchez, and Hoffman are both ahead of Synder, so case closed.

 

/Thread!

 

Wilner would make a great case study for some neurological study into delusional behavior. He is legitimately ill.

 

Mike Wilner is the Theon Greyjoy of baseball.

 

You can tell which forum members called up Jays talk and got destroyed when Wilners name gets brought up.

 

Wilner probably got divorced because his wife complained about the Rogers bill.

 

Yes, he reeks of baseball knowledge.

 

You can tell which forum members are Mike Wilner when someone defends Mike Wilner.

 

getting banned by Wilner on twitter used to be a badge of honor, but now it's so easy that even Wilner could do it.

 

Smokey calling someone out for something they said in the past -

 

You can also tell which members would blow Wilner at the first chance...

 

I don't know why I'm admitting this now... months after it happened. But I had a dream I was at the winter meetings and had sexual relations with Mike Wilner.

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/4298-Blue-Jays-asked-on-Papelbon?p=504488&viewfull=1#post504488

 

BBBB not making any sense -

 

Osuna got this! His shirt tells me soo!

 

Son of....... oden! Damn

 

So did he Kill that guy?

 

Trust is a hard thing around here these Days!

 

what ever gets you though it, believe it and own it! Burden of proof, prove he didn't ! Lol

 

Steam and Smoke not a big difference there!

 

True Story ! It happened.... really! Hmmmmmmn

 

So much confusion in here, who the f*** shops at loblaws? Lol

 

Boxcar, thank you I for one am Glad you have me on ignore!

 

Kindly then to not talk about or respond to things said by me!

 

Fair is fair you are a idiot, I agree!

 

Ps FYSMC have a nice day!

 

And there was also a Smokey/Gruber argument, but I didnt feel like quoting it.

[nmrch]

Umm, Osuna is getting big league hitters out as a 20 1/4th year old, its not smoke and mirrors either, he's got a 3+ K to BB ratio and a 12.6% swinging K rate. Syndergaard dominated the minor leagues, there's no question about that, but there's a good chance Osuna would have done the same if he took the traditional route. So there's absolutely a case to be made for Osuna over Syndergaard. He has 2 1/2 years to get to where Syndergaard is now, i don't know why anyone would think this is a silly comparison.

 

I still stand by this post. Syndergaard is a phenomenal talent and will be a perennial cy young contender, anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot but Osuna did well as a 20 year old, even if its out of the bullpen. The 2 1/2 years of age difference is kind of a big deal so its not an insane comparison. Some of the smart people posting in this thread should know that.

 

I don't know where the discussion of Hoffman came about but i've trashed him since pretty much day 1

[Laika]

I still stand by this post. Syndergaard is a phenomenal talent and will be a perennial cy young contender, anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot but Osuna did well as a 20 year old, even if its out of the bullpen. The 2 1/2 years of age difference is kind of a big deal so its not an insane comparison. Some of the smart people posting in this thread should know that.

 

I don't know where the discussion of Hoffman came about but i've trashed him since pretty much day 1

 

So what you're saying is that the fact that Osuna is younger is a viable argument for taking him over Syndergaard for the next five years, or in five years, or whatever the question is?

[Angrioter]

So what you're saying is that the fact that Osuna is younger is a viable argument for taking him over Syndergaard for the next five years, or in five years, or whatever the question is?

 

My goat is younger than me wife, for that reason I prefer my goat.

 

Lógica estúpida, pero cierta!!

[Followthelight]

Thor, but you never know baseball can be unpredictable.

 

My goat is younger than me wife, for that reason I prefer my goat.

 

Lógica estúpida, pero cierta!!

 

A goat will never talk back either.

[Laika]

A goat will never talk back either.

 

Clearly you've never tried to f*** a goat

[Followthelight]

This thread has everything.

 

LTBF going full retard -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Metafour acting like a dickhead -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJH witt -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Caper being Caper -

 

 

 

Angrioter humor -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TwistedLogic jerking off over Hoffman -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lame Dogg trolling -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nox shutting down board dummies -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

o2 tossing out random warnings -

 

 

 

 

 

Olerud -

 

 

 

 

 

Wilner saying something stupid, followed by the rest of the board calling him a dumb f***

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Smokey calling someone out for something they said in the past -

 

 

 

BBBB not making any sense -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And there was also a Smokey/Gruber argument, but I didnt feel like quoting it.

 

This board is very predictable all that is missing is spanky to come on call people names, and Yer Dumn, then Candy will follow up thank spanky's post and agree with everything he says.