Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[HERPDERP]

I think it's fairly obvious now tercet has a lot of money on the table for Sanchez to fail this year lol.

 

why you hate him so much ;/

[Laika]

Well, what should happen and what will happen are very different things. I don't see any way this team sends down Sanchez, and not because his ERA was shiny last year, but because it was VERY shiny.

 

You're probably right. Hopefully the probable mishandling doesn't "ruin" him.

[tercet]

I think it's fairly obvious now tercet has a lot of money on the table for Sanchez to fail this year lol.

 

why you hate him so much ;/

 

No I don't actually, no one will bet me.

 

Because

A. Most people realize that Sanchez will be terrible

B. The few that realize he won't be terrible wont escrow a bet of my liking (Few hundred minimum) because they just wanna freeroll a bet bc they know I will pay.

[Laika]

[TheHurl]

I agree that Sanchez won't be in Buffalo to start the season...but I even if he's up as a starter I see zero chance he's given more than 40 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. If he's anywhere near his projections over a 6 start span, I think he'll be in Buffalo

[Maahfaace]

I agree that Sanchez won't be in Buffalo to start the season...but I even if he's up as a starter I see zero chance he's given more than 40 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. If he's anywhere near his projections over a 6 start span, I think he'll be in Buffalo

 

i think ERA will have less do with that decision than K/BB rate will. If he is walking guys like crazy I expect him in AAA, if he puts up a respectable K/BB rate with a 4.50 ERA I doubt he will get sent down, especially since who will replace him is unlikely to exceed those numbers.

[Maahfaace]

I agree that Sanchez won't be in Buffalo to start the season...but I even if he's up as a starter I see zero chance he's given more than 40 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. If he's anywhere near his projections over a 6 start span, I think he'll be in Buffalo

 

Ok, looks like I misinterpreted your comment

[TheHurl]

i think ERA will have less do with that decision than K/BB rate will. If he is walking guys like crazy I expect him in AAA, if he puts up a respectable K/BB rate with a 4.50 ERA I doubt he will get sent down, especially since who will replace him is unlikely to exceed those numbers.

 

Well I don't think he's ever going to have a great K/BB ratio (average is probably the best case scenario for him, but I think ERA is and will be a much bigger factor for the F.O. Only scenario I can see differently is if he's winning the games with that 4.5 ERA. Like a bunch of 2-3 run 5 inning outings.

[Maahfaace]

Well I don't think he's ever going to have a great K/BB ratio (average is probably the best case scenario for him, but I think ERA is and will be a much bigger factor for the F.O. Only scenario I can see differently is if he's winning the games with that 4.5 ERA. Like a bunch of 2-3 run 5 inning outings.

 

who would you replace him in the rotation with that would exceed that performance? assuming Estrada is in the rotation and Norris is in AAA to start the season (service clock)

 

I could see a scenario where Sanchez gets the nod out of the gate with him getting shifted to the bullpen mid-may if he struggles, and Norris takes his spot a little later.

[TheHurl]

who would you replace him in the rotation with that would exceed that performance? assuming Estrada is in the rotation and Norris is in AAA to start the season (service clock)

 

I could see a scenario where Sanchez gets the nod out of the gate with him getting shifted to the bullpen mid-may if he struggles, and Norris takes his spot a little later.

 

Someone pitching well in Buffalo, one of the 30 or so guys that will get cut in the next 2 weeks (who will view Toronto as a great Minor league deal due to closeness to competing and questions with health) or just Estrada and Norris.

[tercet]

Maybe someone like Shaun Marcum, because 0.001% chance he will make CLE's rotation, and possibly could have some juice left in his tank after being hurt for 2 years.

[TheHurl]

Maybe someone like Shaun Marcum, because 0.001% chance he will make CLE's rotation, and possibly could have some juice left in his tank after being hurt for 2 years.

 

Noesi was my thought before the Sale injury. He can eat more innings than most and pleases the DR contingent. I still think he's cut by the White Sox at some point this season.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sanchez only has 34 AAA innings, and 100.1 innings in AA/AAA. His peripherals were terrible at those levels too. I think it's pretty dumb to just give him a spot on the team because he throws hard and his ERA was shiny in the bullpen last summer.

 

Also, if they keep him down in Buffalo for a couple of months they effectively get another year of control out of him, I think (because his service time will be less than 3.000 years after 2017).

 

Years of control don't mean too much for pitcher. When guys arms can blow at any time you get as much value out of them as they can. Position players are a completely different story.

[Laika]

Years of control don't mean too much for pitcher. When guys arms can blow at any time you get as much value out of them as they can. Position players are a completely different story.

 

Contrarily, when you're probably losing a year of contribution from every pitcher that comes through your system, it's important to milk that extra year from each and every one of them.

[Laika]

Seriously, Navarro for Cahill + the $ difference. It makes too much sense now that Stroman is down. Edited March 13, 2015 by Laika

[glory]

Yep. If Arizona is willing to eat up the difference between Navarro and Cahill, it should be done. However, they have no reason to do it (Arizona). They'd probably do the trade straight up to save 7m but I don't think they'd eat up 7m just to make it.

[Laika]

Well even if they meet somewhere in the middle it could make sense.

[Angrioter]

Jarred Cosart debut

http://ctrlv.cz/shots/2015/03/13/CLMB.png

 

DAT ERA!!

[saskjayfan]

Maybe someone like Shaun Marcum, because 0.001% chance he will make CLE's rotation, and possibly could have some juice left in his tank after being hurt for 2 years.

 

you're advocating having someone who's arm has fallen off pitch in the rotation ahead of a guy who has premium stuff. You judge every pitch the kid makes. What do you learn from 7.2 innings of spring training, especially the first 7.2 innings....virtually nothing. He's had 2 walks this spring, not 10.

[tercet]

you're advocating having someone who's arm has fallen off pitch in the rotation ahead of a guy who has premium stuff. You judge every pitch the kid makes. What do you learn from 7.2 innings of spring training, especially the first 7.2 innings....virtually nothing. He's had 2 walks this spring, not 10.

 

When Aaron Sanchez fails, maybe Marcum could be a replacement if he is fully recovered.

[saskjayfan]

When Aaron Sanchez fails, maybe Marcum could be a replacement if he is fully recovered.

 

what does sanchez have to do to become a better pitcher?

[43211234]

So what's this about Sanchez throwing a few sliders? I didn't catch the game today.

 

How did the pitch look? He needs something other than that Drabekian curve that fools absolutely no-one.

[saskjayfan]

Increase his control and command and get swings and misses somehow.

 

it's all about the swings and misses. He got some swings and misses today! You only judge by the stats and there hasn't been a big enough sample size to properly project a young player like Sanchez, although you'll use what limited stats there are to make projections. You've advocated getting rid of him already based on that small sample size. Young guys like Sanchez are continually making more significant adjustments than what a veteran would make as they are learning and developing. Projecting his numbers is a very difficult task. I know you and tercet feel extremely confident in your expert opinions, but I;ll reserve judgement and just watch it all play out.

[S33n]

it's all about the swings and misses. He got some swings and misses today! You only judge by the stats and there hasn't been a big enough sample size to properly project a young player like Sanchez, although you'll use what limited stats there are to make projections. You've advocated getting rid of him already based on that small sample size. Young guys like Sanchez are continually making more significant adjustments than what a veteran would make as they are learning and developing. Projecting his numbers is a very difficult task. I know you and tercet feel extremely confident in your expert opinions, but I;ll reserve judgement and just watch it all play out.

 

He allowed 1 hard hit ball today in 3.IP, I believe it was off a curveball. The number of weak ground balls he induced with his sinker was actually quite impressive.

[saskjayfan]

He allowed 1 hard hit ball today in 3.IP, I believe it was off a curveball. The number of weak ground balls he induced with his sinker was actually quite impressive.

 

I watched him pitch, I also listened to Pete Walker talk about his performance and he was impressed as was I. Veteran pitchers often don't have a feel for all their pitches at this point, so why would we expect a young guy to be nails at this point. Sanchez is going to start and have a lot of success this year. He'll have his up and downs, but this will be a year to grow. Hopefully he will have more ups than downs.

[Laika]

So what's this about Sanchez throwing a few sliders? I didn't catch the game today.

 

How did the pitch look? He needs something other than that Drabekian curve that fools absolutely no-one.

 

They looked bad.

 

I actually find it kind of remarkable that the Jays have let him climb to the big leagues without adding at least a cutter. Who even survives in the big leagues these days with FB-CB-CH, especially when the CH isn't even a great pitch?

 

Off the top, I know AJ Burnett is mostly FB and Knuckle Curves. I think Edinson Volquez is FB-CB-CH. I know Cosart is FB-CB. There are guys like Archer and T.Ross who are basically FB-SL.

 

But FB-CB-CH just doesn't seem like a common modern starter's repertoire. Maybe they were worried about increasing the injury risk too much by adding a CT to his poor mechanics.

[ElNik2013]

Speaking of adding pitches, didn't Stroman and Hutchison learn or improve at least one of their pitches during the 2014 season?

 

If so, do we know if it was Pete Walker who taught them? You'd have to think he had something to do with it and if that's the case, he may be able to help Sanchez improve/widen his repertoire.

[tercet]

what does sanchez have to do to become a better pitcher?

 

Get better command/control..

 

In the history of baseball very very very very very very very very few pitches if any magically go from 5bb/9 to 2bb/9 overnight. Some slowly improve their command/control, but the odds are against Aaron Sanchez.

 

People like you seem to think bc he throws a fastball hard he is destined for greatness, but unfortunately not. Aaron might become an elite pitcher one day, but he is not one currently.

 

Yes his sinker is good now, but he is very inconsistent with where he locates it, which is a large part of why I believe he wont succeed immediately.

[tercet]

Focus on command. I will take the weak contact he provides.

 

What about the fact he walks everyone and can't get a swinging strike to save his life?

[Brownie19]

 

People like you seem to think bc he throws a fastball hard he is destined for greatness, but unfortunately not.

 

For me...its not the velocity, it's the movement and sink WITH that velocity....its rare. he has worts, but this guy gets trashed far too much on here.