Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[Abomination]

For anyone who missed the game earlier today, it's on Sportsnet again in an hour.

[Laika]

For anyone who missed the game earlier today, it's on Sportsnet again in an hour.

 

Sweet, I missed Osuna's inning.

[G-Snarls]

Sweet, I missed Osuna's inning.

 

Osuna

Hutch

Drabek (2 times)

Hoffman

 

Am I missing any?

 

Is that an unusual or typical number of pitchers in the organization to have had TJS?

[Laika]

Osuna

Hutch

Drabek (2 times)

Hoffman

 

Is that an unusual or typical number of pitchers in the organization to have had TJS?

 

typical. I think there was a recent article that tracked TJS by team... hmmm.

 

Of course, you can't blame Toronto at all for Hoffman or Drabek's 1st.

[Laika]

Toronto is 8th all time in recorded TJS (MLB + MiLB) with 33. But they are closer to last (HOU - 20) than first (TEX - 47)

 

But only 9 of those came at the MLB level, which has them below average. #1 is ATL with 20. Fewest is 6 (SF + CHW).

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/htmlview?sle=true#

[saskjayfan]

What about the fact he walks everyone and can't get a swinging strike to save his life?

 

he had 5 swinging strikes on 43 pitches today..that's 11.6% and he was using a slider he's never thrown before in today's outing. So when Sanchez is performing well in the regular season are you going to rejoin the forum with a new screen name!

[closetjaysfan]

Get better command/control..

 

In the history of baseball very very very very very very very very few pitches if any magically go from 5bb/9 to 2bb/9 overnight. Some slowly improve their command/control, but the odds are against Aaron Sanchez.

 

People like you seem to think bc he throws a fastball hard he is destined for greatness, but unfortunately not. Aaron might become an elite pitcher one day, but he is not one currently.

 

Yes his sinker is good now, but he is very inconsistent with where he locates it, which is a large part of why I believe he wont succeed immediately.

 

How about these former jays chosen mostly at random and known for decent careers*:

 

Chris Carpenter? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1292&position=P

David Wells? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=855&position=P

Roy Halladay? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P

Ted Lilly? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=833&position=P

Ramon Ortiz? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=27&position=P

Jim Clancy? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1002255&position=P

Phil Niekro? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1009583&position=P (little known fact that he played 3 games for the Jays, doesnt really belong on this list)

 

OF course he may never establish great command and still turn out ok. Like Dave Stewart for example, who had a poor k/9 & BB/9 and still had a good career.

 

*- edit: ha ha forgot i had ortiz on here.

[tercet]

he had 5 swinging strikes on 43 pitches today..that's 11.6% and he was using a slider he's never thrown before in today's outing. So when Sanchez is performing well in the regular season are you going to rejoin the forum with a new screen name!

 

Uh no I've used this sn on multiple forums for almost 15 years. I've used this sn on the old forum since 07/08 I think.

 

The only time I used another acct was to troll dogg on the old forum.

[tercet]

How about these former jays chosen mostly at random and known for decent careers*:

 

Chris Carpenter? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1292&position=P

David Wells? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=855&position=P

Roy Halladay? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P

Ted Lilly? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=833&position=P

Ramon Ortiz? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=27&position=P

Jim Clancy? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1002255&position=P

Phil Niekro? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1009583&position=P (little known fact that he played 3 games for the Jays, doesnt really belong on this list)

 

OF course he may never establish great command and still turn out ok. Like Dave Stewart for example, who had a poor k/9 & BB/9 and still had a good career.

 

*- edit: ha ha forgot i had ortiz on here.

 

He's a 22 yr old pitcher with extreme control issues. I'm just asking people to be realistic with him, he probably will be a above average pitcher in a few years. People just have unrealistic expectations for 2015 after his fluky 2014 season. I'm not calling him a bust lol

[Spanky99]

Estraada has a history of being a good pitcher, Sanchez doesn't. Shut the f*** up and use common sense.

 

You're some kind of a piece of s***...I'd say 6' 8" 150 lb turd. Your arrogance makes me want to puke...call all spect busts and you might get some credit. Hech's a Major Leaguer get over it Gimp!!

[Spanky99]

I don't see how the bullpen helps him become a starter. He'd just throw 90% fastballs, with the odd stupidly gigantic curve. The guy needs to throw more pitches to work on his fastball command, and keep trying to come up with an average third pitch .

 

That s***..is written on the wall by AA @ company, if he doesn't start he's in the pen, likely a 2 inning guy if it's the 6th.

[Spanky99]

Seriously, Navarro for Cahill + the $ difference. It makes too much sense now that Stroman is down.

 

Ewww......

[tercet]

Jason how was st' pattys day drinking? I assume this is your favourite weekend of the year!

[glory]

Carpenter's minor league numbers were very Sanchez-esque. That doesn't mean he will be a HOF calibre pitcher but there is hope that with some tweaking he can be a good MLB starter. I agree though, expecting that light switch to turn on in 2015 is unrealistic.

[ElNik2013]

Carpenter's minor league numbers were very Sanchez-esque. That doesn't mean he will be a HOF calibre pitcher but there is hope that with some tweaking he can be a good MLB starter. I agree though, expecting that light switch to turn on in 2015 is unrealistic.

 

 

 

Hopefully they keep him as a SP either in AAA or MLB.

 

The fact that both Stroman and Hutchison developed a new pitch and/or improved their existing arsenal during the 2014 season provides at least a glimmer of hope that Pete Walker can help Sanchez out.

[Laika]

FRIAS on Aaron Sanchez: 6.97/2.63/0.50 for a 3.18 FIP.

 

Pretty good. I was expecting the strikeouts to take more of a hit due to his lack of swinging strikes.

 

That would be as a reliever? Correct me if I'm wrong but your system would just predict skill based on their past role.

[NorthOf49]

That would be as a reliever? Correct me if I'm wrong but your system would just predict skill based on their past role.

Yes, it's only based on his 33 IP as a reliever.

[Angrioter]

FRIAS on Aaron Sanchez: 6.97/2.63/0.50 for a 3.18 FIP.

 

Pretty good. I was expecting the strikeouts to take more of a hit due to his lack of swinging strikes.

 

As a RP, of course. As a starter the result would be terrifying.

[tercet]

Shaun marcum for fifth starter

 

today 3ip 2h 0er 0bb 2k

 

before today 4ip 4h 1r/er 1hr 0bb 0k

[S33n]

Shaun marcum for fifth starter

 

today 3ip 2h 0er 0bb 2k

 

before today 4ip 4h 1r/er 1hr 0bb 0k

 

Stop bumping your thread.

[tercet]

#saynotosanchez

[NorthOf49]

Is there any RTTM in FRIAS?

FRIAS is a regression of next-year K/BB/HR rates against current-year peripherals, using 2007-2014 data. It doesn't contain additional adjustments for age or small samples, although an innings weight was used in deriving the coefficients.

 

It's meant to be used as a tool that determines how good a pitcher's season was in terms of what is says about his skill level going forward.

[Nafro]

#saynotosanchez

 

I just want to see Aaron Sanchez have a good season, because as a Blue Jays fan, his success means my team has more success.

[tercet]

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/3/17/8226239/aaron-sanchez-lightning-rod-of-optimism

[Gorlak]

The difference between scouts and projections are notable for Sanchez and the guys at fangraphs don't think his projections tell the story accurately. For them the question is starter or reliever, not can he stick in the majors. Fans are optimistic because they rate players they know/like.

[Gorlak]

A question that should be asked is who do you want to control for longer, The Jays will need one of Norris and Sanchez. The odd man out could give the Jays an extra year of control. The Jays need to manage both of their innings and if they both start the season with the club, both will be shutdown by September. May be best to start Estrada and Sanchez until Sanchez gets around 120 innings then move him to the pen, Can bring up Norris when the clock passes and move Estrada accordingly. Downside is Estrada will get lots of innings, but he's really the only option.

[glory]

A question that should be asked is who do you want to control for longer, The Jays will need one of Norris and Sanchez. The odd man out could give the Jays an extra year of control. The Jays need to manage both of their innings and if they both start the season with the club, both will be shutdown by September. May be best to start Estrada and Sanchez until Sanchez gets around 120 innings then move him to the pen, Can bring up Norris when the clock passes and move Estrada accordingly. Downside is Estrada will get lots of innings, but he's really the only option.

 

I think Sanchez/Estrada in the rotation with Norris in AAA is a good idea. However, if they decide to go with Sanchez and Norris, then there are ways to manage their innings using Estrada as the spot starter. For example, if one of the two is struggling in June, have Estrada take their spot in the rotation for 1-3 turns, and then put them back in the rotation after that, and so on. That way they periodically get a breather, and can still finish the season with an IP total around 170 or so (which I'm guessing is where they want to go after 130 IP in 2014 for both).

[Laika]

Castro and Osuna would both be better big league starters right now than Aaron Sanchez, lol.

 

It's like Sanchez hasn't even developed during his entire time in the minors, aside from adding some velocity to his fastball.

[tercet]

A question that should be asked is who do you want to control for longer, The Jays will need one of Norris and Sanchez. The odd man out could give the Jays an extra year of control. The Jays need to manage both of their innings and if they both start the season with the club, both will be shutdown by September. May be best to start Estrada and Sanchez until Sanchez gets around 120 innings then move him to the pen, Can bring up Norris when the clock passes and move Estrada accordingly. Downside is Estrada will get lots of innings, but he's really the only option.

 

From a statistic point of view Norris has progressed alot the last few years... Sanchez is pretty much the same thing..

 

Id still go w/ Norris over Sanchez now for the 5th spot, and Estrada as 4th is a no-brainer..

[tercet]

Castro and Osuna would both be better big league starters right now than Aaron Sanchez, lol.

 

It's like Sanchez hasn't even developed during his entire time in the minors, aside from adding some velocity to his fastball.

 

I dunno don't jump the ship quite yet.. They've done nice over 2 weeks, but you cant really say that yet