Around Baseball 2015

[BTS]

Yay lets load up on s*** players who weren't tendered as our depth pieces. This is so exciting, and so par for the course for Rogers

 

If you don't follow baseball closely and don't know who those guys are/care to discuss them, that's obviously fine. But why bother commenting?

[Terminator]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 3m3 minutes ago

Padres continue to try to push James Shields in the trade market. Owed $63 million over the next three seasons.

 

With a 3 WAR projection for 2016, Shields should reasonably be expected to be worth a bit more than his remaining contract.

 

Some team should want him.

 

He also has a $16M / $2M buyout option for 2019. So that adds some upside for a team, if he stays effective.

 

His deal is really backloaded as well which is attractive for this year as he only makes 10 million. I wonder if the Pads would eat any salary.

[Stangstag]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 3m3 minutes ago

Padres continue to try to push James Shields in the trade market. Owed $63 million over the next three seasons.

 

With a 3 WAR projection for 2016, Shields should reasonably be expected to be worth a bit more than his remaining contract.

 

Some team should want him.

 

He also has a $16M / $2M buyout option for 2019. So that adds some upside for a team, if he stays effective.

 

He's exactly the type of guy we should be going after IMO. Great track-record (in our division too), short-term deal, shouldn't cost too much, etc. He would be a great Veteren guy to anchor the rotation. It would also allow us to trade one of our depth pieces for something useful.

[Stangstag]

His deal is really backloaded as well which is attractive for this year as he only makes 10 million. I wonder if the Pads would eat any salary.

 

He makes 21 million in 2016

[BTS]

Flipping Dickey off for a reliever or something and acquiring shields for, say, Revere, would be a nice sequence.

[Laika]

His deal is really backloaded as well which is attractive for this year as he only makes 10 million. I wonder if the Pads would eat any salary.

 

That was this past year. Going forward he's 21M, 21M, 21M then 16M with a 2M buyout.

 

Basically if they manage to trade Shields it will be exactly what Miami did with Buehrle. They only had to pay Buehrle $6M and then traded the backloaded part of his contract to Toronto.

 

Which is kind of funny because Shields and Buehrle are actually so similar in a lot of ways.

[Terminator]

He makes 21 million in 2016

 

Woops you're right.

[L54]

James Shields has an opt out after 2016 which has to suppress his value.

[Stangstag]

That was this past year. Going forward he's 21M, 21M, 21M then 16M with a 2M buyout.

 

Basically if they manage to trade Shields it will be exactly what Miami did with Buehrle. They only had to pay Buehrle $6M and then traded the backloaded part of his contract to Toronto.

 

Which is kind of funny because Shields and Buehrle are actually so similar in a lot of ways.

 

Hey, I'd gladly take the same production Buehrle gave us for the past 3 years from Shields.

[BTS]

James Shields has an opt out after 2016 which has to suppress his value.

 

He can still be given a QO though, so if he pitches well enough to opt out, the team gets a comp pick.

 

*assuming the system stays the same

[THANOS]

That was this past year. Going forward he's 21M, 21M, 21M then 16M with a 2M buyout.

 

Basically if they manage to trade Shields it will be exactly what Miami did with Buehrle. They only had to pay Buehrle $6M and then traded the backloaded part of his contract to Toronto.

 

Which is kind of funny because Shields and Buehrle are actually so similar in a lot of ways.

 

Maybes they're similar in contracts and as grizzly vets, but their styles are very different. Shields is a strikeout guy with decent peripherals, Buerhle is a pitch to contact guy with s*** peripherals.

[birchy]

http://www.tsn.ca/report-white-sox-to-sign-c-navarro-1.403513

[Laika]

Toronto picked up Buehrle for 3/$49 three years ago.

 

Salary inflation at 8% annually takes that to around $62M.

 

Shields is guaranteed $65M over the next 3 years.

 

200 inning workhorse. Buehrle certainly worked out.

 

Rinse and repeat old tactics?

 

They'd have to move some salary around, I bet.

 

One major difference - the pace.

 

Shields = 23 (one of the slowest)

Buehrle = 15.9 (fastest in the game)

[saskjayfan]

James Shields has an opt out after 2016 which has to suppress his value.

 

I would trade Dickey for Shields straight up. He still struck out 9.6/9 last year. You won't beat up Martin who we are still paying a lot of money for the next few years.

[Laika]

James Shields has an opt out after 2016 which has to suppress his value.

 

Not really in a significant way. The opt out is obviously a good thing for Shields because if he has a great season he can elect free agency, so it removes a bit of the upside on his contract for the team.

 

But really I think any team would prefer to have him for 1/$21M as opposed to 3/$65M. At this point we would project all/most of his surplus value to come in 2016 anyway.

[Laika]

Maybes they're similar in contracts and as grizzly vets, but their styles are very different. Shields is a strikeout guy with decent peripherals, Buerhle is a pitch to contact guy with s*** peripherals.

 

Sure, they get to the same place in very different ways. If you just look at WAR and IP though, they are almost clones.

[burlingtonbandit]

Not really in a significant way. The opt out is obviously a good thing for Shields because if he has a great season he can elect free agency, so it removes a bit of the upside on his contract for the team.

 

But really I think any team would prefer to have him for 1/$21M as opposed to 3/$65M. At this point we would project all/most of his surplus value to come in 2016 anyway.

 

Yeah but then there is the risk of having to pay $40 million if he sucks/gets injured this year. If he pitches great, he leaves and you get a comp pick. If not then you get stuck with $40 million. I'd give Iwakuma 3/65 before trading for Shields.

[THANOS]

Sure, they get to the same place in very different ways. If you just look at WAR and IP though, they are almost clones.

 

This is true. Fair point.

[Laika]

Yeah but then there is the risk of having to pay $40 million if he sucks/gets injured this year.

 

That risk is in the contract whether or not he has an opt out.

 

To pay Shields $21M for 3 WAR and then have him walk away, giving the team a comp pick (over $10M in value) would be extremely attractive to me.

[glory]

Flipping Dickey off for a reliever or something and acquiring shields for, say, Revere, would be a nice sequence.

 

I approve of this. The rotation would be better with Shields and Dickey both in it, but have to save money somewhere.

[fireballW]

Suppresses?! Shields on a 1/21 deal would be great, made even better by the fact if he did opt out it means we'd also be getting a pick for him. Subtract the value of a 1st or 2nd round pick from 21m and it'd be a steal. If he has a good year old even be possible.

[Brownie19]

What are San Diego's needs?

 

Um....they need a new GM and then basically a complete overhaul from top to bottom.

[Laika]

MLBTR note on Shields:

 

Meanwhile, the Padres “continue to push” righty James Shields in trade talks, Olney tweets. Shields will soon turn 34, is coming off of an underwhelming campaign, and is owed $65MM over the next three seasons (including a 2019 option buyout) under his back-loaded deal. Those considerations suggest that San Diego may need to sweeten the pot (with young talent or cash) to find a taker for the contract, but Shields is hardly immovable. To the contrary, he’s still quite a useful pitcher: his 2015 effort did nothing to disturb his record of durability and he actually put up career highs in swinging strike rate (12.4%) and strikeout rate (9.6 K/9).

 

Oh boy.

 

I'll take Shields + Nick Vincent for Revere, plz and thanks.

[BTS]

Um....they need a new GM and then basically a complete overhaul from top to bottom.

 

lol

 

I was going to say they literally need help at every position.

[burlingtonbandit]

That risk is in the contract whether or not he has an opt out.

 

To pay Shields $21M for 3 WAR and then have him walk away, giving the team a comp pick (over $10M in value) would be extremely attractive to me.

 

But there is a lot more risk than usual since its like:

 

Best case scenario: he pitches like he usually does and you get 10-15 million in surplus.

Worst case: He gets TJS in the first few months and in theory you are paying 60 Million for a little over a year of him in 2018.

 

I like James Shields a lot but I hate the contract structuring. Its similar to Price's with a lot less money. If he pitches well you get decent value since he opts out but if not then you get killed.

Edited December 3, 2015 by burlingtonbandit

[Abomination]

MLBTR note on Shields:

 

 

 

Oh boy.

 

I'll take Shields + Nick Vincent for Revere, plz and thanks.

 

No kidding. And Quackenbush in there somehow!

[L54]

Suppresses his value to San Diego*** It's too bad payroll won't allow us to take him on a salary dump. I'd gladly take him at 1/21M and bank on him walking and taking the comp pick.

 

A comp pick is worth what? 10M? You'd be looking at 2.5 WAR for ~12M. No numbers in front of me right now.

[TilsonBritoFan]

OK if we do something along the lines of Shields for Revere I'd be pretty pumped

[Laika]

But there is a lot more risk than usual...

 

No there isn't. The worst case scenario is the same whether or not the opt out exists (he sucks and you pay him the full contract).

 

Completely unrelated question but did you do well in school?

[Laika]

A comp pick is worth what? 10M? You'd be looking at 2.5 WAR for ~12M. No numbers in front of me right now.

 

He's projected for 3.0 WAR. Comp picks are probably worth closer to $15M.