Blue Jays kicking tires on Shields

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I honestly thought he may sign with us yesterday just minutes before the state of the franchise to take heat off the FO and to get away from the tough questions. #naive

[Zaun of the Dead]

Having Shields would be pretty great but there's almost no chance he signs with Toronto.

[Dr. Dinger]

No thanks.

 

Why not?

[Governator]

Sanchez > Shields 19M

 

I dont want see Sanchez pitching out of the bullpen.

 

 

That's like saying signing Shields means we're going to have great pitching depth and that's a horrible thing... scratches head.

[Gorlak]

It would be money better spent elsewhere.

[jays76]

Sheilds would be great but I think the Padres are definitely the frontrunner as mentioned. It's really looking like the 5 spot is for Norris to lose this spring training. I don't think Estrada breaks into the rotation even if Norris falters, I think they'll just go back to Sanchez as a fallback but they really want to keep him in the pen. All indications are Cecil will get a chance to close with perhaps Sanchez as an outside option but again there's a lot hinging on Norris by the looks of it this spring training.

[KingKat]

Why not?

 

Yeah I don't get the opposition. Shields might not have been the best investment to start the off-season but he most certainly is now. If there's money available to improve the team, where else could you even put it at this point? Yeah it blocks Norris and others but it also more than answers any concerns about pitching depth and prepares the team for the post Buehrle/Dickey world. Those two can't keep it up forever. The drop off could happen any time. Shields is another guy who can more or less do the same thing and having all three plus Stroman and Hutch with Norris as the first call-up is a damn fine setup for a win now campaign.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Why not?

 

I'd be interested in hearing his reasoning too. Velocity has stayed consistent. Seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

Having 3 guys who are almost a lock to give you 200 quality innings each seems like a pretty good idea.

[jays76]

Yeah I don't get the opposition. Shields might not have been the best investment to start the off-season but he most certainly is now. If there's money available to improve the team, where else could you even put it at this point? Yeah it blocks Norris and others but it also more than answers any concerns about pitching depth and prepares the team for the post Buehrle/Dickey world. Those two can't keep it up forever. The drop off could happen any time. Shields is another guy who can more or less do the same thing and having all three plus Stroman and Hutch with Norris as the first call-up is a damn fine setup for a win now campaign.

 

I agree that's an ideal scenario. I think the Jays are definitely open to the idea and maybe have had some talks already but I don't see him passing over the Padres to come to Toronto.

[KingKat]

I agree that's an ideal scenario. I think the Jays are definitely open to the idea and maybe have had some talks already but I don't see him passing over the Padres to come to Toronto.

 

Just to be clear. I don't think this is likely to happen. I just don't understand being philosophically opposed to it. I know that some people want to set money aside for Bautista and Encarnacion and I get that but who knows that they won't walk anyways? I'd rather they walk after having at least made the playoffs while they were here than have them play out their careers in a prolonged playoff drought which seems likely if the team keeps hedging and not putting the finishing touches on what are supposed to be win-now teams.

[L54]

ITT: People acting like AA offered 5/100

[Governator]

Please sign Shields because in late September I want to look at my wife while shopping at 6:30PM for once and say "Hurry the f*** up and pick some toilet paper already and lets get home, I'm not missing this game for this piddly s***."

[glory]

Shields, Dickey, Stroman, Buehrle, Hutchison with Norris and Estada as depth? That's an ideal situation. Trade Navarro for salary relief and give Shields something like 10/20/20/20. He will be hard to trade but not impossible. Trade him after year two when you have to re-sign Bautista and Edwin, but take advantage of the opportunity to win over the next two years at least.

[Pulk_Pull]

I have no issue exploring this option as long as the term is reasonable (4 years?) and the per year number comes in between 15-18 mil.

 

Assuming Buehrle moves on after next year, it would be nice to have another horse in the wings to eat 200+ innings. We would be eating value and restricting our other options, but I'm not very comfortable with hoping the 'kids' stick. Having Norris start in AAA and be the first man up if (let's be honest, WHEN) an injury occurs, seems like a better strategy than either hoping Estrada rebounds or that Norris repeats a Stroman like start. If we are actually planning on going for it this year, putting less dependancy on young unpredictable players is probably in our best interest.

 

That being said, I probably would of been more comfortable if they spent this money on 2B and BP pieces earlier in the offseason.

[L54]

Shields, Dickey, Stroman, Buehrle, Hutchison with Norris and Estada as depth? That's an ideal situation. Trade Navarro for salary relief and give Shields something like 10/20/20/20. He will be hard to trade but not impossible. Trade him after year two when you have to re-sign Bautista and Edwin, but take advantage of the opportunity to win over the next two years at least.

 

I don't think the Jays can land Shields at 4/70. Maybe, maybe 4/75 but that's about the lowest I can see him coming to TO for.

 

That rotation has lots of stability and some upside in it. It's just too bad I don't expect him in Toronto.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I don't think the Jays can land Shields at 4/70. Maybe, maybe 4/75 but that's about the lowest I can see him coming to TO for.

 

Based on what? You can't see him coming for 4/70 but possibly 4/75, this late in the offseason how can you tell the difference between the two?

[jays76]

Just to be clear. I don't think this is likely to happen. I just don't understand being philosophically opposed to it. I know that some people want to set money aside for Bautista and Encarnacion and I get that but who knows that they won't walk anyways? I'd rather they walk after having at least made the playoffs while they were here than have them play out their careers in a prolonged playoff drought which seems likely if the team keeps hedging and not putting the finishing touches on what are supposed to be win-now teams.

 

I couldn't agree more, they gambled last trade deadline by standing pat and it didn't pay off. By the looks of it they are gambling again this year with the pitching staff and again it could be very costly. The window is these next two seasons and I would hate for this to be another wasted year. JB & EE will be able to pick and choose their destinations and will surely be out of patience with Rogers if they don't make a push.

[JFD]

do it

[L54]

Based on what? You can't see him coming for 4/70 but possibly 4/75, this late in the offseason how can you tell the difference between the two?

 

Because at 4/70 there are a lot more desirable places to be for James Shields than Toronto.

[L54]

This man, that's where Kenny Ken thinks he's going.

 

Seems the longer this takes, the more likely he is to end up there IMO.

 

Does he sign today? We heard it could happen by the end of the week.

[Pulk_Pull]

I couldn't agree more, they gambled last trade deadline by standing pat and it didn't pay off. By the looks of it they are gambling again this year with the pitching staff and again it could be very costly. The window is these next two seasons and I would hate for this to be another wasted year. JB & EE will be able to pick and choose their destinations and will surely be out of patience with Rogers if they don't make a push.

 

Not to mention it's hard to predict what sort of regression those two will see in two seasons (EE and Bau).

 

At least for 2015, we can reasonably expect a similar output to 2014 for them. 2017 is a completely different story...

[reedjohnsonfan]

Because at 4/70 there are a lot more desirable places to be for James Shields than Toronto.

 

No no, I am asking how you think that. Are you just making these numbers up? I am not trying to call you out, I am just wondering what is making you think there is a difference between 4/70 and 4/75, why would the 5 extra million maybe entice him to come here but 4/70 there is no chance?

[jays76]

I don't think the Jays can land Shields at 4/70. Maybe, maybe 4/75 but that's about the lowest I can see him coming to TO for.

 

That rotation has lots of stability and some upside in it. It's just too bad I don't expect him in Toronto.

 

If the Jays can get him for 4/75 they should do it. As everybody is saying it would be a dream scenario for our rotation with 3 Workhorses- Dickey, Buerhle, Shields and 3 Young Stallions- Stroman, Hutch, Norris.

 

Cheesy analogies aside it would definitely be shades of the St.Louis Cardinals of a few yrs back, definitely a recipe for a winner.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'd be interested in hearing his reasoning too. Velocity has stayed consistent. Seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

Having 3 guys who are almost a lock to give you 200 quality innings each seems like a pretty good idea.

 

James Shields is a damn good pitcher, and he'd likely be our best pitcher. I really don't give even a tiny f*** about our 2018 payroll -- if we don't win this year or next, it's all going to be torn down anyway.

[jays76]

Not to mention it's hard to predict what sort of regression those two will see in two seasons (EE and Bau).

 

At least for 2015, we can reasonably expect a similar output to 2014 for them. 2017 is a completely different story...

 

Exactly that's why we have to capatalize on this season and next, but if they still keep it up though they'll definitely be more inclined to leave if there isn't the team success to match it.

[L54]

No no, I am asking how you think that. Are you just making these numbers up? I am not trying to call you out, I am just wondering what is making you think there is a difference between 4/70 and 4/75, why would the 5 extra million maybe entice him to come here but 4/70 there is no chance?

 

I think a lot of teams would feel comfortable at 4/70 for him. 17.5M AAV for a 3 win pitcher is justifiable. Quick math is 9 wins @ 7M = 63M not accounting for rising salaries, so it's probably a wash in terms of value. I'm not an expert, but those 3 wins depending where you are on the win curve should be more valued by a team that's close to the playoffs.

 

Essentially, he's not coming to TO on a discount. He's coming to TO if they offer him the most. 4/75 is probably the least amount that he would end up in Toronto for as I really don't think he would have a problem signing for 4/70 today if he wanted to. Just depends how long the market holds out.

[G-Snarls]

I think a lot of teams would feel comfortable at 4/70 for him. 17.5M AAV for a 3 win pitcher is justifiable. Quick math is 9 wins @ 7M = 63M not accounting for rising salaries, so it's probably a wash in terms of value. I'm not an expert, but those 3 wins depending where you are on the win curve should be more valued by a team that's close to the playoffs.

 

Essentially, he's not coming to TO on a discount. He's coming to TO if they offer him the most. 4/75 is probably the least amount that he would end up in Toronto for as I really don't think he would have a problem signing for 4/70 today if he wanted to. Just depends how long the market holds out.

 

TBH I'm surprised he hasn't already signed somewhere for more than that

[jays76]

I think a lot of teams would feel comfortable at 4/70 for him. 17.5M AAV for a 3 win pitcher is justifiable. Quick math is 9 wins @ 7M = 63M not accounting for rising salaries, so it's probably a wash in terms of value. I'm not an expert, but those 3 wins depending where you are on the win curve should be more valued by a team that's close to the playoffs.

 

Essentially, he's not coming to TO on a discount. He's coming to TO if they offer him the most. 4/75 is probably the least amount that he would end up in Toronto for as I really don't think he would have a problem signing for 4/70 today if he wanted to. Just depends how long the market holds out.

 

You could even make a case for the Jays signing him at 4/80 because this team stands to gain the most with this acquisition. Is it a steep price? Perhaps but if an extra 5-10M over the duration is what it takes to put this team over the top so be it. Also in retrospect everyone expected 5/100 as a sure thing so they got him now with a year less on the term.

[z3r0s]

sign him for 4 years and unless he is injured you can probably trade him for prospects after Edwin and Bautista leave in two years. If you think he will be un-tradeable then, just look at MB.

[TheHurl]

sign him for 4 years and unless he is injured you can probably trade him for prospects after Edwin and Bautista leave in two years. If you think he will be un-tradeable then, just look at MB.

 

He wants a full NTC though. Not saying this makes him un-tradeable just adds difficulties to it.