Blue Jays Remaining Offseason Payroll & Sleeper Targets.

[John_Havok]

I was just going to post this - anyone have the answer?

 

 

Probably not get to review the outliners, but Baltimore won so many games a couple of years ago with their strong pen. They were something ridiculous in 1 run games. We of course saw that last year with KC. On the flip side, there have been more than a few very good teams that simply imploded due to a poor bullpen that blew a bunch of games (Tigers last year?). I'd be curious to see what WAR they were projected to have as a team and how much a great or faulty bullpen affected the final results.

 

Google is such a hard thing to use....

 

http://statliners.com/2014/11/21/mlb-update-correlation-fwar-wins/

[RealAccountant]

IMO a correlation of around 90% is not enough.

[RealAccountant]

Wat

 

a 90% correlation is not enough, especially in regressive stats. Considering the large number of factors that drive both WINS and FWAR. Based on this a team could have a total expectation of wins of 90 based on FWAR and yet only win 81 games. To me that is too great a margin to rely on FWAR, considering that 9 Wins usually separate a great team from an average one. What is the expected correlation between FWAR projections and Actual FWAR for 2014.

[John_Havok]

IMO a correlation of around 90% is not enough.

 

Not sure if serious. Do u think other systems, including the eyeball test would yield higher corelations?

[John_Havok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-projected-team-war-actually-mean-anything/

[RealAccountant]

So virtually what you are saying is that being off by 9 total wins for a team, as the best case scenario is still good?

 

I can guess within 9 wins, just by looking at a teams roster.

[Brownie19]

Google is such a hard thing to use....

 

http://statliners.com/2014/11/21/mlb-update-correlation-fwar-wins/

 

Is that on this intranet thing I hear the kids speak about? Btw, that article doesn't discuss the impact of a bullpen...

[GD]

Is that on this intranet thing I hear the kids speak about? Btw, that article doesn't discuss the impact of a bullpen...

 

A win is a win is a win. A win from the offense is just as good as a win from the bullpen.

[TheHurl]

So virtually what you are saying is that being off by 9 total wins for a team, as the best case scenario is still good?

 

I can guess within 9 wins, just by looking at a teams roster.

 

You are up. I will insure this is brought up in March. I want your predictions in writing. If you do better than Steamer...than you can post about it on every single thread. If you don't you shut the f*** up and admit you don't know s***.

[Spanky99]

You are up. I will insure this is brought up in March. I want your predictions in writing. If you do better than Steamer...than you can post about it on every single thread. If you don't you shut the f*** up and admit you don't know s***.

 

Bwahahaha...

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

A win is a win is a win. A win from the offense is just as good as a win from the bullpen.

 

So a Win by a starter then is worth more! Requires less offense and less pen.

 

So then sign f***ing James Shields already! Please AA

[GD]

So a Win by a starter then is worth more!

 

how exactly did you get "a win by a starter is worth more" from "a win is a win" omg

[flafson]

He figures the game is already won by the time Shields leaves the field.... I guess.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

how exactly did you get "a win by a starter is worth more" from "a win is a win" omg

 

Read the answer was already there, dumbass! Lol

[GD]

Read the answer was already there, dumbass! Lol

 

Have I told you lately that you're my favorite poster? Way smarter than King

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Well that was Easy! Just like a Win! Lol

[TheHurl]

Smarter than King that could put you in some elite company...like with Ang's Donkey

[LongTimeReader]

Smarter than King that could put you in some elite company...like with Ang's Donkey

 

Seems you are rather familiar with Ang's Donkey... Ang needs money to feed his family, so I assume he's been renting his Donkey out...

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Smarter than King that could put you in some elite company...like with Ang's Donkey

 

Right along Super Mod's, elite! Lol

 

Bazinga!

[Gorlak]

I don't believe the Canadian exchange rate has moved at all so far this year.

 

Lost 1.25% today.

[Jimcanuck]

No s***? The most efficient areas are not so evident. If AA comes across an opportunity to add more wins elsewhere at better value then that is what he will do. Constraining yourself to focusing only on specific areas is a nonsensical approach. But hey let's do that......

 

Did I say anything about constraining oneself?

 

I listed priorities and most efficient areas to improve roster.

 

A 1 win upgrade at RP would be more efficiently added than a 1 win upgrade at RF

 

But go ahead and be the contrarian you are, every post you made is to dispute someone else's

Edited January 3, 2015 by Jimcanuck

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I think when you say you have needs in the bullpen and 2nd base upgrades for the year ahead! And then you let the ball slip right though your hands it's a committed error charged to the GM! There is a difference to upgrades as a whole when it comes to wants vs needs! Upgrades are welcome, yes! But only if and after you address your needs first one would think!

I know AA has time but we are starting to scrap bottom already unless we make a move that doesn't cost us dearly on the farm! It's like I said before it's like we do enough to just be competitive, rather then kicking in the door and walking away with a championship! Rinse and Repeat! That door of opportunity is about to be slammed shut and hard on this team! Mid season or end of the season fire sale coming soon to a Jays team near and dear to you!

[Spanky99]

I think when you say you have needs in the bullpen and 2nd base upgrades for the year ahead! And then you let the ball slip right though your hands it's a committed error charged to the GM! There is a difference to upgrades as a whole when it comes to wants vs needs! Upgrades are welcome, yes! But only if and after you address your needs first one would think!

I know AA has time but we are starting to scrap bottom already unless we make a move that doesn't cost us dearly on the farm! It's like I said before it's like we do enough to just be competitive, rather then kicking in the door and walking away with a championship! Rinse and Repeat! That door of opportunity is about to be slammed shut and hard on this team! Mid season or end of the season fire sale coming soon to a Jays team near and dear to you!

 

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

^ " YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"

 

Can you ?

 

Oh Spanky!

[glory]

I think AA's bullpen construction is fine. Sure it would be nice to add another sure thing in the pen to go with Cecil and Loup, but he likely does not have a lot of money left to spend and thanks to the Royals the market for relievers is very expensive. Between Lopez, Guilmet, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Schultz, Tepera, Delabar, Drabek, Redmond, Infante, etc, I'm sure there is a combination of that group that can form a solid bullpen. Not to mention the off-season is still young so there is time to sign or trade for more help.

 

Adding wins is most important. Bullpens are so volatile year to year that it's easier to add wins elsewhere since other positions are more predictable.

[Ehjays]

I think AA's bullpen construction is fine. Sure it would be nice to add another sure thing in the pen to go with Cecil and Loup, but he likely does not have a lot of money left to spend and thanks to the Royals the market for relievers is very expensive. Between Lopez, Guilmet, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Schultz, Tepera, Delabar, Drabek, Redmond, Infante, etc, I'm sure there is a combination of that group that can form a solid bullpen. Not to mention the off-season is still young so there is time to sign or trade for more help.

 

Adding wins is most important. Bullpens are so volatile year to year that it's easier to add wins elsewhere since other positions are more predictable.

 

The off season is almost half over

[Ambassador Ch0n]

how exactly did you get "a win by a starter is worth more" from "a win is a win" omg

 

Because he's a troll hiding behind this little perma-drunk persona he created in order to provide a semblance of cover for said trolling.

[RealAccountant]

I think AA's bullpen construction is fine. Sure it would be nice to add another sure thing in the pen to go with Cecil and Loup, but he likely does not have a lot of money left to spend and thanks to the Royals the market for relievers is very expensive. Between Lopez, Guilmet, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Schultz, Tepera, Delabar, Drabek, Redmond, Infante, etc, I'm sure there is a combination of that group that can form a solid bullpen. Not to mention the off-season is still young so there is time to sign or trade for more help.

 

Adding wins is most important. Bullpens are so volatile year to year that it's easier to add wins elsewhere since other positions are more predictable.

 

Yeah let's give innings to all those relievers why not they are just games. We are finding the right relievers and if that means throwing a games down the toilet so be it

[jays76]

I think AA's bullpen construction is fine. Sure it would be nice to add another sure thing in the pen to go with Cecil and Loup, but he likely does not have a lot of money left to spend and thanks to the Royals the market for relievers is very expensive. Between Lopez, Guilmet, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Schultz, Tepera, Delabar, Drabek, Redmond, Infante, etc, I'm sure there is a combination of that group that can form a solid bullpen. Not to mention the off-season is still young so there is time to sign or trade for more help.

 

Adding wins is most important. Bullpens are so volatile year to year that it's easier to add wins elsewhere since other positions are more predictable.

 

 

Our Bullpen's a crapshoot (although technically I guess every bullpen is a crapshoot). At this point however I only feel comfortable with Redmond, Jenkins, Estrada, Loup, Cecil, and Sanchez (if he isn't the 5th starter). If we could catch lightening in a bottle from one or more of the remaining ragtags that'd be amazing but ideally they need to use the remaining $10M and additional $5M from Navarro to pick up 2 decent arms (hard throwing righty & a closer) and also a 2B or OF depth before the season begins. On top of this they also need to drop another $5-$10M at the trade deadline when we're competing for the playoffs.

 

If management does both of these things they will fully have earned my trust that they're not penny pinching and actually trying to attain another WS title.

[Ambassador Ch0n]

Our Bullpen's a crapshoot (although technically I guess every bullpen is a crapshoot). At this point however I only feel comfortable with Redmond, Jenkins, Estrada, Loup, Cecil, and Sanchez (if he isn't the 5th starter). If we could catch lightening in a bottle from one or more of the remaining ragtags that'd be amazing but ideally they need to use the remaining $10M and additional $5M from Navarro to pick up 2 decent arms (hard throwing righty & a closer) and also a 2B or OF depth before the season begins. On top of this they also need to drop another $5-$10M at the trade deadline when we're competing for the playoffs.

 

If management does both of these things they will fully have earned my trust that they're not penny pinching and actually trying to attain another WS title.

 

You "only" feel comfortable with 6 of our likely relievers? For a 7-man 'pen, I'd say that's pretty f***ing comfortable, no?